FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[DuffMan]

Did you know you'll be seeing a lot of this in your endzone saturday?

I don't see how a Gustavus d-back is going to be in an endzone at SJU

[TC]

That's cool and all, but now you're blowing off a game and a half -- about a third of the schedule -- against inferior competition. Just want to make sure that's pointed out.

That was my take. Just saying.

Let me start by saying that D3 stats need to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt for a variety of reasons:

--They are hard to find in the first place:  even for a school like St. John's, it is difficult to get accurate individual games stats any further than 3 or 4 years back.  This makes comparisons between players of even slightly different eras difficult.

--Small sample size:  it is difficult to get a meaningful sample of statistics when a player may only have a 10 game schedule to work with and may only play parts of seasons, only as a senior, etc.

--Vast differences in degree of difficulty:  I would agrue that D3 football has a wider gap between then best and worst teams than virtually any other division of any other sports.  How do you compare the stats of someone who played in the UMAC vs. someone in the WIAC or OAC.  Even in the MIAC, Hamline or Macalester (when they played) is an entirely different animal than St. John's, Concordia, etc.

--Non-standard playing conditions:  Playing at home in front of 12,000 fans at Clemens Stadium on a sunny September afternoon is an entirely different atmosphere than playing in front of 1,200 at Carleton in the mud or 5,000 at Concordia in the snow in November.  How do we take those factors into account?  I'd argue that there's no way to do so with any degree of accuracy.

What makes Alex Kofoed so unique at the D3 level is that (compared to his peers) we have a huge track record to judge him on.  He has performed in a ton of games (only missed one start over his first 3 years, plus he's had a couple seasons of playoffs), is establishing his 4th year of play against the same competition (i.e., the MIAC--a pretty well established conference), and plays under the microscope of St. John's football.  It's still not perfect, and if he had rode the bench for 3 years and just became the starter this season I'd absolutely be worried about "blowing off" a bad game and half out of 5 this year. 

It becomes much easier to "blow off" a bad game and a half, though, when I can look back at the past few seasons of above-average play (I'm not saying that he's the best QB in SJU history, but his rewriting of the record books has to mean something) and realize that he probably didn't suddenly forget how to play QB overnight.

Again, I feel like I might be coming off as more of blind Kofoed backer than I am, and I certainly don't want to give that impression.  But as familyguyfan... said a little bit ago, he absolutely destroyed Concordia's defense so let's not pretend he totally forgot everything he's learned over the last 3 years.

[smedindy]

From an outsider's perspective, I can see while many Johnnie fans have no issue with Kofoed's performance, and others may wonder if there is a question mark in his senior year.

I've seen a 4-year starter at Wabash lead the team to Mt. Union (Jake Knott) followed by a few years of inconsistent play that soon resulted in two excellent seasons from two senior QBs that were a bit unexpected, really. (Russ Harbaugh and Dustin Huff). And now, with Huff injured in his fifth season, the questions are back at QB.

But I tell you this, if Kofoed had only these five starts under his belt, I'd be concerned. But knowing he's had three seasons + five starts, I don't think there is THAT much to worry about.

[oldtimefan]

Interestingly and despite some kvetching on Saturday, many of Kofoed's numbers are better than the guy featured on the d3football cover == and that guy has played deeper into most games.

I disagree with Pat's comment that "St. John's fans HAVE TO BE worried" about the quarterbacking. It's pretty easy for me to write Saturday's struggles off on a number of levels. Seems like a bit of an overstatement.

If you're able to write them off, go for it. It would trouble me.

I found Ramler's SJU post game comments pretty interesting. (audio link from the College Sporting News weekly article). He says the key was "keeping their QB confused" I assume his Johnnie background gave him some insight into what Kofoed would think he was seeing defensively.

[TC]

And, in the interest of full disclosure, I should probably also mention that I saw the three home games (where Kofoed has looked unbeatable) in person but didn't see either of the road games (where he looked horrible).  If my mind is having trouble rationalizing his performance this year it's likely because of what my eyes have seen.

[finsleft]

Ole week triple play:

Ole called the airline information desk and inquired, "How long does it take to go from Minneapolis to Fargo? "Just a minute," said the busy clerk. "Vell, said Ole, "if it has to go dat fast, I tink Ill just take da bus."

The judge had just awarded a divorce to Lena, who had charged non-support. He said to Ole, "I have decided to give your wife $400 a month for support." "Vell, dat's fine, Judge," said Ole. "And vunce in a while I'll try to chip in a few bucks myself."

Ole's neighbor Sven had a boy, Sven Junior, who came home one day and asked, "Papa, I have da biggest feet in da third grade. Is dat becoss I'm Norvegian?" "No," said Sven, "It's because you're NINETEEN."

[familyguyfaneightyfour]

To save you the trouble of pointing this out...
The Johnnies have played only one team with a winning record...

The same can be said for the Oles.

True.  But I'd also like to point out that Luther, who the Oles played in week one,  lost their first three games, all to teams in the top 20 (dfootball poll and AFCA poll).  The first two of the games were close (Olaf 26-19, and Central 44-36), the Wartburg game was a little more out of hand at 25-8.  I think that there is something to be said by playing three teams in the top 20 back-to-back-to-back, and not getting blown out by any of them.

[VOJ]

I posted this on the bball posting up site and I will post it here...IF a team is to beat SJU these three things usually happen:

1.  SJU does not execute well on offense or on defense...see Bethel last year where the D did not have a great game, the offense did not either but Bethel ran very well against SJU, which usually does not happen

2.  The J's turn the ball over...see Carleton last week, or Whitewater each of the past two years, especially 2005

3.  The other team has to play extremely well, Carleton played very well, but the J's defense was up to the challenge.

As for matchups with Olaf...the last time the Oles won, what happened?  The J's turned the ball over, had their punter have a meltdown and thought he was a Heisman contender rather than running out of the back of the end zone with the ball, and the offense didn't play well..see the TO's above.  Oh and don't even get me started on the cow pasture that the field turned into. 

my pick:  SJU 35  St. Olaf 17

[GopherOle73]

Over/under of Ole posters next week by day:
Monday: 4 all b*tching about the officiating and everything SJU got away with.
Tuesday: 1 admitting defeat and telling us all to watch out for next year
Weds: 1 who missed Monday here to complain about the refs
Thurs: 0
Friday: 0

Over/under of Rat Excuses next week by day:
Monday:25 bitching about officiating, 20 bitching about the field being slippery, 15 bitching about what Olaf got away with, 10 bitching about Kofoed's poor player, 5 bitching about the field, 1 suggesting that Gags might be done.
Tuesday: 35 bitching about officiating, 30 bitching about the field being slippery, 25 bitching about what Olaf got away with, 20 bitching about Kofoed's poor player, 15 bitching about the field, 1 suggesting that Gags might be done.
Wednesday: 45 bitching about officiating, 40 bitching about the field being slippery, 35 bitching about what Olaf got away with, 30 bitching about Kofoed's poor player, 25 bitching about the field, 1 suggesting that Gags might be done.
Thursday: 76 posts about how it doesn't matter anyway.
Friday: 76 posts about how beating GAC by more than 40 means SJU is better than STO.

I hope the Oles roll and fake a field goal in the 4th to run-up the score.

[Pat Coleman]

Probably not the best debut post you could've made.

[DuffMan]

Uh, GopherOle, we've got a turf field, and there are no sprinklers that could be used to water it down

[BDB]

Damn. Our favorite Iron Range gal is not going to be donning the Wonder Woman outfit. 

http://movies.msn.com/movies/hitlist/10-02-07_3?GT1=7701

[TC]

Uh, GopherOle, we've got a turf field, and there are no sprinklers that could be used to water it down

But other than that, I think he knocked it out of the park...

As much as I hate to leave just as things are heating up, the weather is much to beautiful to spend in front of the computer.  I'm going fishing for a couple days.  See y'all Thursday night.

[GopherOle73]

Uh, GopherOle, we've got a turf field, and there are no sprinklers that could be used to water it down

Field Turf can be slippery when wet. I'm really looking forward to Saturday though. I'm expecting one of the biggest crowds of the D-III football season to be there and hopefully one of the best games.

I also expect to see more posts predicting the Oles demise. Although I think even the Rat Pack isn't expecting to see a stomp.

[familyguyfaneightyfour]

gopherole,
keep in mind that the johnnies on the board would pick the SJU 2nd team in a stomp over Mount's 1's.