FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[finsleft]

There was a little blurb in ESPN The magazine speculating that since Liriano was coming back, the Twins would be more likely to try and keep Santana, giving them a great 1 - 2 starting punch. I'm not sure I understand the logic, and they did not expand. Does anyone else get it?

I'm not sure I get that. Baseball guru TC may chime in here, but keeping Santana for just one year would be the biggest gamble and the costliest to the Twins in the end. What, pay him for a year and lose him with nothing in return? That makes little sense. I have to admit that if Liriano comes back to his old form, that would be an incredible 1-2 punch on the hill. It would be a huge gamble, but the only upside would be if the Twins thought they could run the table this year with those cards, and Santana would be so excited he'd take a cut for a long-term contract to stay here. Not likely, IMHO.

[bennie]

It is currently 20 degrees outside! Everyone here is acting like it is the end of the world. They keep asking me if it reminds me of Minnesota. I explained that unless I am having to help shovel out the driveway with minus degree windchill, there is no comparison! We might get some snow this afternoon though...

[DuffMan]

It is currently 20 degrees outside!

It was -12 (MSP airport) when I got up this morning. 

[finsleft]

-24 here this morning. Looking for a mid 30's by Sunday. A 50 degree swing should have me standing out on the ice in a t-shirt and shorts.

[57Johnnie]

does that mean this could be gags last season at the helm of St. John's Football? 

Stagg coached until he was 90 (although as an asst. the last few years). That would be a great record to beat. Stagg was succeded at Chicago by Clark Shaughnessy. I don't think a Shaughnessy will replace John.   

BTW: After many days of zero weather, it is already 40 here in western Colorado - no wind so don't need a coat today. 

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

There was a little blurb in ESPN The magazine speculating that since Liriano was coming back, the Twins would be more likely to try and keep Santana, giving them a great 1 - 2 starting punch. I'm not sure I understand the logic, and they did not expand. Does anyone else get it?

I'm not sure I get that. Baseball guru TC may chime in here, but keeping Santana for just one year would be the biggest gamble and the costliest to the Twins in the end. What, pay him for a year and lose him with nothing in return? That makes little sense. I have to admit that if Liriano comes back to his old form, that would be an incredible 1-2 punch on the hill. It would be a huge gamble, but the only upside would be if the Twins thought they could run the table this year with those cards, and Santana would be so excited he'd take a cut for a long-term contract to stay here. Not likely, IMHO.

The simple solution is for old man Pohlad to have a brain cramp and decide to spend the $$ he has to sign Johan. But someone I've talked to in a position to know says that even if the $$ was there, Johan wants to move on to a bigger city with a larger Hispanic population.

Who's going to Twinsfest?

[snoop dawg]

fins....great picture.....my idea of a great day fishing.  Nice boat by the way.   Where is the sun tan lotion?

[AO]

Looks like I hadn't finished my thought there, as I should have included their recent NAIA status.  Thanks for pointing that out.  For reference, all MIAC schools sponsor at least 19 sports (excluding St. Catherine but including CSB/SJU; Bethel has only 19 but most members have over 20).

Keep in mind that, while redshirting is certainly a part of the whole issue, it is not the crux of the debate within D-III-- rather, I use it to illustrate the debate since it is one of the best-known reforms to MIAC/SJU fans, as the WIAC and MUC used to practice non-medical redshirting routinely.  The other reforms involve recruiting (I believe the MIAC already has some further limits for this over and above what is allowed under NCAA rules); spring practices (the MIAC has a much more stringent limitation on this than what the already tight NCAA allows); and programs (the NCAA just passed legislation, in a very divided vote, allowing "separate but equal" academic study-hall programs for athletes).  I can foresee much more stringent scrutiny of financial aid programs as well (currently if you are within a 4% (I believe) ratio of aid to athletes versus aid to the general student body, you are ok).  Just because NWC has never redshirted doesn't mean they wouldn't like to use some of the other lessened restrictions on athletics-- and it doesn't mean they would use those either.

I really don't see the MIAC splitting up over this.  I think Mr. Weiner's article was written from an outsider's perspective and it showed, as he only scratched the surface with his explanation of the issues.  Put it this way-- if the MIAC already plays in D-IV rules and are successful, why would they put themselves at risk of losing that competitive advantage?  Furthermore, the schools that are contemplated to head D-IV are schools like Middlebury and Amherst and MIT.  Wouldn't you want to be part of a list with that group, especially if you have some competitive advantages over them? 

It's an interesting thought for a study, AO, but you may already have a lot of the data handy: keep in mind that Northwest Conference members (PLU, Linfield) routinely practiced redshirting until outlawed under the D-III reform package (meaning, no redshirts were allowed prospectively). While Linfield won the walnut and bronze in 2004, the NWC has not had anywhere near the same dominance since that 'Cats team.   The WIAC has seemingly tended to use greyshirting to accomplish the same things as a redshirt did, only they can use it to further enhance their conference-mandated roster limit.   Not to mention that, in my discussions with former D-I coaches, the best reason to go to a bowl is for the 6-8 weeks of extra practice you can have. 

Here's where I'm still a little lost on the whole issue:

Why would the large schools that sponsor 20 sports be more apt to go to D-4, as I would bet the large schools have been very successful compared to some of the smaller D-3 programs out there who might be more likely to vote for redshirting.   Maybe if the WIAC were to vote for redshirting, the MIAC would see an opportunity for more post-season success if they moved to D-4.

It sounds to me like they would split up the traditional powers in D-3, rather than keeping the strong programs in D3 and moving the under-performers to a new division.   This isn't like High School division creation-it's worse. 


Is it so difficult to decide whether to keep the best pitcher in baseball on your team?  He puts fans in the stands and wins which in turn generates more interest and revenue for the team.  Which city would Johan move to that has a larger hispanic population?  Minneapolis isn't exactly binford, north dakota when you talk about diversity.

[Johnnie Red]

miacmaniac, I will be at the Twinsfest tomorrow evening working a booth for the Minnesota state town team tournament that is being hosted by Chaska and Shakopee this year. Stop by if you are there.

[cobbernation]

Anyone else besides me going to be camped out tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. to get opening day tickets for the twins vs. the LA Angels who now feature Torii Hunter as their center fielder?  I wish he was a Twin.

[finsleft]

In view of the recent market volatility, it might be good to review a few essential terms... 

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.   

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18-month period when the kids get no allowance,  the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.   

MOMENTUM INVESTING -- The fine art of buying high and selling low.   

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.   

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.   

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.   

"BUY, BUY" -- A flight attendant making market recommendations as you step off the plane.   

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.   

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.   

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.   

FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy who actually remembers his wallet when he runs to the   
7-11 for toilet paper and cigarettes.   

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.   

CASH FLOW -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the  toilet.   

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.   

WINDOWS 2000 -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker that bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.   

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.   

PROFIT -- Religious guy who talks to God.



Buy-Buy!

[TC]

There was a little blurb in ESPN The magazine speculating that since Liriano was coming back, the Twins would be more likely to try and keep Santana, giving them a great 1 - 2 starting punch. I'm not sure I understand the logic, and they did not expand. Does anyone else get it?

I'm not sure I get that. Baseball guru TC may chime in here, but keeping Santana for just one year would be the biggest gamble and the costliest to the Twins in the end. What, pay him for a year and lose him with nothing in return? That makes little sense. I have to admit that if Liriano comes back to his old form, that would be an incredible 1-2 punch on the hill. It would be a huge gamble, but the only upside would be if the Twins thought they could run the table this year with those cards, and Santana would be so excited he'd take a cut for a long-term contract to stay here. Not likely, IMHO.

If you're trying to bait me into responding, fins, well... it worked.  The idle Johan chatter is getting ridiculously old, to the point I wish they'd just do something and move on.  In my mind, the Twins are almost forced to build for 2010--moreso because of the roster construction of Boston, New York, Cleveland and Detroit than any particular flaw with the Twins.  

Even with Johan, the Twins are currently sucking hind tit in a five team (six if things break right in Toronto or Tampa--don't laugh!) race for three spots.  If they have some favorable fortune, there's no reason the Twins can't win 88-92 wins and luck into a playoff spot.  Once in the playoffs, I don't think any team is much worse than 10-1 to win it all.  I just think too many good things need to happen for the Twins to make it there.

Of course, there are a few small steps the Twins could take to greatly improve their chances of making the dance for 2008.  Their hopes depend on just how well Liriano recovers from his surgery.  It has become commonplace for pitchers to be back throwing in under 12 months (like Liriano) with no loss, or even a small gain, in velocity.  This process commonly took 18 months as recently as a few years ago--which would have meant virtually two full missed seasons in Liriano's case.  Unfortunately, a pitcher's control typically doesn't rebound as quickly as his velocity following Tommy John surgery, which is a concern--one of the keys to Liriano's 2006 was his improved walk rate over his minor league numbers.  You also have to worry that a pitcher with as violent and seemingly unrepeatable a delivery as Liriano might face other injury concerns if he, even subconsciously, favors his elbow in 2008.  The 121 innings of 2.16 ERA he provided in 2006 are completely and totally unrealistic expectations for 2008, but even 160 innings of league-average pitching would have a lot of value.

Speaking of 160 innings of league-average ball, that's essentially what the Twins got from Scotty Baker last year, and there's no reason not to expect improvement from him, Boof Bonser, and Kevin Slowey.  With good depth in the minors, Johan to anchor the staff, and decent health from Liriano the Twins could have a ridiculously good (and ridiculously cheap, all things considered) pitching staff.

Delmon Young should have no problem replacing Torii Hunter's offensive production, but defensively he would represent a massive, gaping vortex of suck in CF.  His arm will play beautifully in LF, though, and Kubel should be left to do what he does best--hit, DH-style.  That still leaves big holes in CF and at least one of 2B/3B depending on what you get from Mike Lamb, Alexi Casilla and Brendan Harris.  The nice thing is that all three players have recognizable skills (Lamb does awful things to lefties and can fake 3B, Casilla showed great plate discipline in the minors and is the kind of baserunner that Castillo, Guzman, Rivas, et al, were supposed to be, and Harris is a legitimate offensive threat, especially at 2B).  The nice thing about having large holes to fill is that you can realize a substantial gain by just filling them with average players.  (Thanks for sucking, Nicky Punto!)  Adam Everett is the kind of fielder that he has to be to make up for his bat, though he would have made a lot more sense with Carlos Silva still around.   I am confused by the presence of Craig Monroe on the roster.  

So, yeah, that's a long way of saying that the Twins are a nice little team, and certainly young enough to be optomistic about their future, but likely don't have a realistic shot at postseason glory this year.  And fins is absolutely correct--there's not enough hope in 2008 for the Twins to keep Johan and risk losing him after the season for only a pair of draft picks.

Looking towards 2010, I think the most prudent course of action is to have a long talk with Johan and his agent about how much money it would cost to keep Mr. Santana in a Twins uniform.  I'm not a huge fan of 7-year deals for pitchers (Mike Hampton?  Barry Zito?  How are those working out?), but if there was ever a free-agent-to-be pitcher worth that kind of risk it is an elite, injury free, 29-36 year old Johan Santana.  In the short term, his additional salary could easily be covered by not paying Torii Hunter, Carlos Silva, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Rondell White, and Nick Punto to be Twins.  Hey, what a coincidence!  None of those players will ever contribute anything to the Twins anyway!  That was easy.  

Of course, over the long term you have to factor in raises for Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Delmon Young and whatever young pitchers still have attached and operating throwing arms.  Luckily, baseball revenues are increasing at a compounding rate of about 10% per year and the Twins are moving into a new ballpark in 2010.  By 2014, paying an ace pitcher $22M a year will be a steal.  Let's just hope Johan is that pitcher, and it is as a member of the Twins.  

Assuming resigning Johan is an actual option for the Twins, then the option to trade him becomes a simple question of whether they are better off with Santana than the players they are offered.  And I think that would have to be quite an outrageous offer.  As they are constructed currently, I'm not high on either the Yankees or Red Sox offers.  I'm not convinced Jacoby Ellsbury will be an impact player--his defense is good, not great, and there is a limit to just how good an outfielder can be these days with negligible power.  

If I had a choice of any pitching prospect in baseball, I would choose Phil Hughes.  I think there is a realistic chance that he will be as good or better than Johan in two or three years--and substantially cheaper.  Of course, there are a lot of things that can happen between "pitching prospect" and "pitcher" and most of those things are bad.  Assuming the Yanks aren't interested in parting with Joba Chamberlain or Robinson Cano, they don't have any other impact (or potential impact) players available.  

Of the offers currently "available" if news reports on the topic are to be believed, I guess the strongest one involves the Twins raping and pillaging the Mets farm system, leaving behind a barren wasteland.  While the Mets don't have a blue-chipper to centerpiece a deal like Hughes, a package that includes both Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez (two young high-risk/high-reward outfield prospects) and a half dozen or so garden variety pitching prospects might be too much for the Twins to say "no" to.  That deal would also have the added benefit of getting Johan out of the AL (he would destroy NLers if he got to face them regularly, by the way, and getting to see him bat regularly would finally answer the question of whether the Twins should have used the DH for Punto on days Johan was pitching).

Personally, I'd see if Johan would be open to a move to the West Coast.  Getting the Dodgers--with a package built around Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, and/or Andy Laroche--or the Angels--Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood, and more--involved would add two teams whose prospect resources outstrip the Mets, Yanks, and Sox.  

I also wouldn't be surprised if Billy Beane and the A's got involved in a three-way deal.  The A's are in full-scale rebuilding mode and would be happy cherry-picking the prospects they like, while sending Mark Ellis and Joe Blanton to the Twins.  From the Twins' perspective, Ellis would step in immediately and provide help at 2B.

Sorry for the long post.  Blame fins.

[57Johnnie]

In view of the recent market volatility, it might be good to review a few essential terms... 

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.   

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18-month period when the kids get no allowance,  the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.   

MOMENTUM INVESTING -- The fine art of buying high and selling low.   

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.   

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.   

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.   

"BUY, BUY" -- A flight attendant making market recommendations as you step off the plane.   

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.   

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.   

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.   

FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy who actually remembers his wallet when he runs to the   
7-11 for toilet paper and cigarettes.   

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.   

CASH FLOW -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the  toilet.   

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.   

WINDOWS 2000 -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker that bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.   

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.   

PROFIT -- Religious guy who talks to God.



Buy-Buy!

Great stuff! Did you leave off -- STIMULUS PACKAGE because we are family oriented

[Touchdown Tommy]

My sources tell me there is a new Grand Sheriff in town at Summit and Cretin. 

[finsleft]

Well done, TC! I'll gladly take the blame for that great hot-stove league reading.
The only point I'd differ with you on is your opinion of Delmon's defense. Obviously Torii was the gold-standard, but I think we will find Dmitri's kid brother to beyond just average as an outfielder. At least one stat-nerd ranks him in the top five in the best outfield arms/right field category. Using figures for runs saved per 200 opportunities, or as he says:

"which outfielders did the best job of controlling the running game during the previous season. Who excelled in gunning down adversaries as they tried to gain an extra base, or who, based just on reputation, most often caused opposing runners to think, "No, I think I'll hold second after all."

Interestingly, Cuddyer was 1st for RFers. For CFers, Torii was 25th.