FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[repete]

The absolute last thing the Twins need is more low-ceiling RHP mid-rotation starting pitching prospects. 

TC,
Spot on, I think -- not just on Mulvey but overall. Thanks.

[TC]

There have been rumors (speculation?  discussion?  guesses?) that the Yankees seriously withdrew from trade talks, which led to the Red Sox--who may have only been in discussions in the first place to keep Johan from the Yankees and had the least to gain from acquiring him in the first place--to either lower their offer or withdraw altogether.  Couple that with the rumor (speculation?  discussion?  guesses?) that Johan and his agent set yesterday as the deadline for a trade to be consumated (the luxury of having a no-trade clause) and it looks like Billy Smith's hand was forced.

How about looking for some positives in the trade?  To begin with, I think most people overestimated Santana's value on the trade market.  Teams were essentially trading for 1 year of Johan at a near-market salary (which has a ton of value) and the right to pay him a market salary for 5 to 7 additional years (which has value, but not as much as you'd think).  Arguably, this makes Johan's trade value less than inferior pitchers like Danny Haren (signed for 3 years at a below-market salary) or Erik Bedard (two years left on an affordable contract), so it makes sense that the Twins would receive less in a trade than the A's did get or the O's were rumored to get.

While it's difficult to trade the best pitcher in baseball and not receive a consensus Top-50 prospect in return (or even the other team's best position--Fernando Martinez--or pitching--Mike Pelfrey--prospect), the Twins scouting staff is rumored to be ridiculously high on Carlos Gomez.  And if there's one thing the Twins have proven in the past, its that they can fleece teams when trading veterans for minor leaguers.  The A. J. Pierzynski Heist?  Dave Hollins for David Ortiz?  Roberto Kelly for Joe Mays?  Buck Buchanan for Jason Bartlett?  It's apparent that it will be at least 3 years before anyone will be able to say with certainty who won this trade (although it looks pretty likely it will be the Mets).

While he may not be much now, it's hard to not like a speedy CF who makes good contact and is projected to develop power (and certainly has the frame for it) and held his own in AAA as a 21-year old.  It certainly is not beyond the realm of possibility that Gomez will be a viable link in the Puckett-to-Hunter-to-... chain of Twins centerfielders.

As far as the pitchers go, pitching prospects are the currency of Major League Baseball and the Twins have had good success developing pitchers in the past.  While Scotty Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey may not sell many tickets, there is a lot of value to having cheap, average, durable pitchers and the Twins should be able to find at least 3 of those in that group.  Add in the star potential of Liriano and the possibility that one of the above group (Slowey, especially, or maybe Baker) makes a leap forward and the Twins are looking just fine in the rotation for the next 3+ years.

Klop, you mentioned "Hunter" and "fire sale" in the same sentance, but the concern with losing Torii is more that there wasn't a firesale.  It should have been apparent to the Twins far before July 31, 2007 that the season wasn't going to end with the Twins in the playoffs and the next season wasn't going to start with Hunter in CF for the Twins.  They absolutely should have traded Hunter before the deadline.  It makes you wonder if Terry Ryan didn't have the stomach to make the moves that needed to be made which led to him stepping down before Santana had to be dealt.

While it's becoming increasingly clear that the Twins are not going to be a playoff team in 2008, there are still a lot of things to be excited about this season.  First and foremost, Delmon Young has a chance to be a ridiculously good hitter, and soon.  Not only is Liriano going to be back, but the entire rotation is young enough to expect improvement from at least a few of the starters.  I'm excited to see which starter become maybe not the next Johan, but the next Brad Radke(s).  If they do go with Carlos Gomez from the start, he is the kind of player that will be much more exciting than productive.  Think Cristian Guzman--he swung like a 98-year old woman, but when he miraculously slapped the ball against the baggie or the Indians threw the ball into the bullpen on a sac bunt it sure was fun to watch him run.  Plus, an outfield of Young-Gomez-Cuddyer should be a lot of fun to watch.

Most importantly, Johan Santana and Nick Punto should both get about 100 plate appearances this year so we should be able to start answering the question of which one is the better hitter.

[sumander]

TC, +k I enjoy reading your analysis of the Twins and their dealings! I am equally impressed with your knowledge of minor league prospects. Keep up the good work!

[retagent]

TC - you are THE MAN. When all looks bleak, you make us see that the glass is half (if not more) full. Your pointing out the success with prospects in the past is something we should all remember. When getting four players, certainly one, or maybe two, will pan out. Todays All-Stars were once "prospects."

[TC]

TC - you are THE MAN. When all looks bleak, you make us see that the glass is half (if not more) full. Your pointing out the success with prospects in the past is something we should all remember. When getting four players, certainly one, or maybe two, will pan out. Todays All-Stars were once "prospects."

Ret, let's remember that Johan was actually acquired by the Twins for the immortal Jared Camp immediately following the Rule 5 Draft!  Jared Camp-->8 years of Johan-->-->Profit!

If anyone is interested in another take on the deal, Aaron Gleeman has shared his thoughts.  Gleeman has always been a world-class %&$! when I've dealt with him but he knows what he's talking about, so it's very reassuring that he and I seem to have pretty similar opinions regarding the particulars of the trade.

[finsleft]

For those of you considering upgrading your current cell phone, might I suggest the Sumsing Turbo 3000?

Go Twins! I'm thinking about taking in the Twins Caravan tonight in St. Joe.

[SUMMIT!!!!!]

Let's not forget to take into account that it was a deadline BY SANTANA that forced this trade. If a deal wasn't made by the end of the day yesterday, he was going to invoke his no-trade clause, and wait till Nov to leave as a free agent. In which case, all the Twins would have gotten then was 2 draft picks (realistically, both would be lower quality personnel than any of the 4 prospects received from NYM). Both NYY and BOS significantly reduced their offers and/or pulled out of the bidding. Even though the Twins offered essentially the same money (4 years @ $20mill vs 6 @ 21.67mill), and even though there are rumors the Twins added a 5th year @ $20mill, Sananta rejected the Twins offer.

Why?

His main reason, according to LaVelle Neal III (who has a rather close relationship with Johan) is that Johan wants to play in (a) a major market and (b) a city that has a sizeable Latino population (which should equate lucrative endorsements for Santana).

That narrows his field to LA, CHI and NYC, which really limited the Twins options. Not to mention the team receiving Santana needs to be able to afford him, which ruled out the WSox. The Dodgers, Angels and Cubs never showed interest.  The Mets knew they were basically bidding against themselves, and unlike the Rangers when they signed ARod, they didnt try to outbid themselves.

The deal -especially all the handwringing in MN media and fans -reminds me of the Viola trade. I think history proved the Twins got the better end of that trade, by far.

Let's hope history repeats itself here  

[Knightstalker]

Mulvey or Mulva?


        * Woman: You don't know my name, do you?
        * Jerry: Yes I do.
        * Woman: What is it?
        * Jerry: It...uh...rhymes with a female body part.
        * Woman: What is it?
        * Jerry: Mulva?

Doloris, your name is Doloris!

[tmerton]

For those of you considering upgrading your current cell phone, might I suggest the Sumsing Turbo 3000?

I need that phone, Fins - +k for the recommendation.

[Mr. Ypsi]

For those of you considering upgrading your current cell phone, might I suggest the Sumsing Turbo 3000?

I need that phone, Fins - +k for the recommendation.

Apple, eat your heart out!

[repete]

http://apps.carleton.edu/athletics/assets/bcastarchive0708.html

Fyi, sju hoops on the net ...

[sjusection105]

TC, Cobbernation, Fins, Kilted Rat et al.....

During the twists and turns of the Santana trade my opinion is that one big piece of the puzzle has been talked about very little. That piece of the puzzle is the change in Terry Ryan vs. Bill (Billy) Smith. There have been times over the years where Twins fans have celebrated the genius of or loathed Terry Ryan for the trades he didn't make.

Will this trade be the signature of one Bill (Billy) Smith as either a genius move to get all the available leverage remaining in Santana with the clock ticking or will this be a sign of things to come where the Twins get fleeced time and time again?

The point has been mentioned in the media today, the Mets will get a proven super star and the Twins get the chance to polish several diamonds in the rough. The question is, in 3 years which will shine brighter an aging super star or the combined contributions of 4 prospects?

[57Johnnie]

For those of you considering upgrading your current cell phone, might I suggest the Sumsing Turbo 3000?

I need that phone, Fins - +k for the recommendation.

Apple, eat your heart out!

I got one and everything works but the phone. 

[OzJohnnie]

The deal -especially all the handwringing in MN media and fans -reminds me of the Viola trade. I think history proved the Twins got the better end of that trade, by far.

Let's hope history repeats itself here   

That post sounds pretty compelling to me.  It broke my heart when Sweet Music left, but then it all worked out.  You never know, and hopefully we know less that we do.

[finsleft]

TC, Cobbernation, Fins, Kilted Rat et al.....

During the twists and turns of the Santana trade my opinion is that one big piece of the puzzle has been talked about very little. That piece of the puzzle is the change in Terry Ryan vs. Bill (Billy) Smith. There have been times over the years where Twins fans have celebrated the genius of or loathed Terry Ryan for the trades he didn't make.

Will this trade be the signature of one Bill (Billy) Smith as either a genius move to get all the available leverage remaining in Santana with the clock ticking or will this be a sign of things to come where the Twins get fleeced time and time again?

The point has been mentioned in the media today, the Mets will get a proven super star and the Twins get the chance to polish several diamonds in the rough. The question is, in 3 years which will shine brighter an aging super star or the combined contributions of 4 prospects?

I was pondering that myself tonight after I left the Twins Caravan event tonight. As much as the Twins, from the suits on down, put on a happy face, I sensed recently that it wasn't such a group of happy campers. Taking that a bit further, you might say that Santana had as much to do with Ryan's departure as Ryan had to do with Santana's departure. Johan's fit last summer after Ryan added no help by the trading deadline, then dumping Castillo in August, Hunter leaving, there was no way Johan was staying here beyond this year no matter what. The Twins made him a pretty good offer-4 yrs/$80 mil- and there are rumors that they would've gone 5 yrs/$100 mil- which is decent dough, especially for the Twins. But Johan wanted the bright lights, huge Hispanic exposure and lucrative endor$ement opportunitie$.
There was a cadre of players (including Santana) that threw the "baseball is a business" business right back in Ryan's, and now Smith's, face.
None of this makes the deal any better. A trade was inevitable, but Smith clearly over-played his hand, from a hindsight perspective.
But all of this is what makes baseball such a great sport, and on the brink of spring training it is fun to anticipate what might develop over the course of a season. They have to sign Nathan, though.