FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[finsleft]

Don"t be counting your Hamm's before they're hatched. One 0 for 4 and you're buying.

[TC]

For the record, Boof would have been my choice in the 7th and I would have gone Mijares in the 8th.  At this point in the year both are better choices than an obviously spent Matty Geererererererer, the Crainwreck, or Fat Dennys, especially considering the righties coming up in the 7th and the lefties in the 8th. 

Boof's ERA isn't anything special, even after being moved to the bullpen, but relievers' effectiveness (when measured by ERA) can really be masked by one or two bad outtings because they don't throw all that many innings.  Boof is the only righthanded reliever that is consistently striking out anyone right now and I think his K/IP and K/BB rate are the most important considerations at this point.

Mijares is another assembly-line reliever that the Twins keep cranking out.  The book on him coming up is that he doesn't take great care of himself (you can tell by looking at him that home plate isn't the only plate he attacks aggressively) and obviously breaking his pitching elbow in an offseason car accident was a huge concern, but it looks like he's all the way back and he's always had serious talent.  He should put up a couple early-vintage Juan Rincon/Jesse Crain seasons before the workload inevitably catches up to him, just like it does to all non-elite relief pitchers.  He's absolutely a legitimate 8th inning bullpen option right now.

Tonight's game was the one that I was worried about coming into the series.  I've mentioned a few times this year that I thought Blackburn was pitching over his head all season, and it looked like that was starting to catch up with him the last couple of outings.  Even bad, inexperienced "crafty" lefties give Twins struggles, so I was worried they wouldn't get to Buehrle at all.  Now that they have this one in the books, I'm going to allow myself to get a little excited.



After tonight's game, Delmon's hitting .296 (165/557) and projects to get 14 more at bats over the team's final 4 games.  If he ends up with his projected 571 at bats, he'll need to go at least 7-for-14 over those at bats.  Here's how many at bats he can have the rest of the way for each amount of hits:

3 hits:  3 for 3, 168 for 560 overall, .3000
4 hits:  4 for 7 or better, 169 for 564 overall, .2996
5 hits:  5 for 10 or better, 170 for 567 overall, .2998
6 hits:  6 for 13 or better, 171 for 570 overall, .3000
7 hits:  7 for 17 or better, 172 for 574 overall, .2996
8 hits:  8 for 20 or better, 173 for 577 overall, .2998
9 hits:  9 for 23 or better, 174 for 580 overall, .3000
10 hits:  10 for 27 or better, 175 for 584 overall, .2996

Essentially, he needs 7 or more hits over his last four games to guarentee himself a .300 average.  That's not taking into account that the Twins could have clinched or been eliminated at some point, he will hit the .300 mark and get removed to preserve the mark--which very well could happen in the last game.

For the record, Delmon is 8-for-13 in the last four games.  If he matches that mark over the final four games, he would be at .304 for the season.  He's now hitting .386 in September--over the 14 projected at bats remaining, that translates to 5.4 hits, which would leave his average at .2984.  Also, he has hit only .157 against Kansas City this season. 

If I had to guesstimate his chances of finishing the regular season at or above .300, I'd say about 40%, aided somewhat significantly by the chance of last-game-of-the-season shenanigans aiding him in his quest.  Like Shoulda said, fins, don't drink that Hamm's just yet.

[Pat Coleman]

Doesn't take into account the tiebreaker game that could be necessary as well.

[stanbob]

Doesn't take into account the tiebreaker game that could be necessary as well.

I wish Chicago's play in game, if needed, was against anybody in the league other than Detroit.

[TC]

Ugh, who thought it was a good idea to get me started on baseball?

A quick look at tomorrow's starting pitchers, Kevin Slowey and Gavin Floyd:

Slowey:  156 2/3 IP, 6.03 IP/Start, 120 K, 23 BB, 5.2 K:BB, 3.85 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 108 ERA+
Floyd  :  194 2/3 IP, 6.28 IP/Start, 133 K, 67 BB, 2.0 K:BB, 3.84 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 119 ERA+

They profile as pretty similar pitchers.  Floyd has been marginally more durable and the ERA+ illustrates the difference between the Dome and the Cell, but Slowey has been more effective at striking people out and keeping people off of the bases.  I'd call the pitching matchup pretty even.

Oh yeah, one more thing:

Twins at home:  51-26
White Sox on the road:  35-45

Everyone ready for The Rumble in the Teflon Jungle?

[tmerton]

Jimmy G. was on the Granite City Cafe this afternoon and it sounds like Boyle will get the start with Hansel getting a fair number of snaps as well.  No mention of Crees.

What did Crees do - sh!t in Jimmy's shoe? 

One scenario that has not been mentioned is that Crees shoulder could have been re-injured, thus no need to mention him getting snaps.

Certainly possible; his last play was a fumble, so it certainly could have happened then.  But why hide it?

[cobbernation]

TC,
Nice analysis on delmon young.  Hopefully he can get a few hits and get rbi's as well. 

The wild looked pretty rusty in the first preseason game.  However, they did win 2-1.

[OzJohnnie]

If I had to guesstimate his chances of finishing the regular season at or above .300, I'd say about 40%, aided somewhat significantly by the chance of last-game-of-the-season shenanigans aiding him in his quest.  Like Shoulda said, fins, don't drink that Hamm's just yet.

I still wonder about the wording of the bet.  From memory, I believe it was that DY would reach .300 by season's end, not at season's end.  It seems to me that TDT wins if DY just gets there at some point, even one at bat.

[stanbob]

Obviously TDT told Delmon about the bet and cut him in for a half a case of Hamm's. I guess I just didn't know how much Delmon liked Hamm's.

Fins, be glad that TDT didn't offer the half case a week earlier.   

[OzJohnnie]

Obviously TDT told Delmon about the bet and cut him in for a half a case of Hamm's. I guess I just didn't know how much Delmon liked Hamm's.

Fins, be glad that TDT didn't offer the half case a week earlier.  

I heard that he did, but then the two of them spent the next week arguing over who would get which half.

[stanbob]

Obviously TDT told Delmon about the bet and cut him in for a half a case of Hamm's. I guess I just didn't know how much Delmon liked Hamm's.

Fins, be glad that TDT didn't offer the half case a week earlier.  

I heard that he did, but then the two of them spent the next week arguing over who would get which half.

Did they get the Hamm's Bear to decide on who got what?

[Kilted Rat]

KR,
Carleton (sucks) over Concordia?  I'm gonna go ahead and call shenanigans right now...

Call it all you like, just make sure you figure out how you's like your crow cooked when it comes true

It's tough to open up your passing attack when the QB has no time to throw the ball!

Yea, I guess so.  If your offensive line doesn't block effectively, I guess there's nothing you can do.

That is the #1 problem I am having with my Middle School team.  We are a new school with no $ to buy a sled so we are having a hard time teaching the O line to fire off the ball and drive block.

Really? How often during a game does the opposing team send a blocking sled in as the defensive line?

You learn to block by blocking another player, not a padded dummy connected by metal to 3-6 other padded dummies with some non-padded dummy standing on the whole contraption whistling and yelling at you to push harder.

What was it Linneman said when asked about the tire drill? Something like "Yeah, we don't believe in doing stupid drills like the tire drill. If Goodyear ever drops a load of tires on the field in game day we may pay for our lack of preparation, but until then I think we'll be all right."   

Oh those crazy cheeseheads!

I'm not sure if I am proud or embarassed that this story is about the town I was born in. 

[sjusection105]

Jimmy G. was on the Granite City Cafe this afternoon and it sounds like Boyle will get the start with Hansel getting a fair number of snaps as well.  No mention of Crees.

Any word on O-line or RB changes to get whoever is in at QB some time to throw?

[The White Silly]

No new meds here...I started drinking Hamms.

[The White Silly]

wow...i just realized i have some power to applaud and smite now...good stuff...good stuff...i believe looking at the Twins you are now looking at your 2008 World Series Champs...you heard it here...