MBB: Midwest Conference

[scottie]

Mav - The Scots have their next four games at home (Knox, IC, Larry, SNC).  If we're all in agreement that 8-8 will make it or tie for the #4 playoff spot  then they need to win at least three out of four.  And, they can save us the drama of being winless and upsetting an undefeated Larry squad.  Been there and done that.

[The Roop]

Scottie,

I think lots of people would probably be ok with Monmouth upsetting Lawrence whether they were winless at the time or not.

[The Roop]

Larry or Carroll [but not his other brother Carroll...sorry I digress]
In the words of Jerry Reed: "We got a long way to go, a short time to get there..."

Yes, Kenny from Norwood did learn to read, now has a computer and is masquerading as a Grinnell fan.

Meet ya at Barleycorns for a Red, White and Blue Kenny............ Troubleman out.

[systemfan86]

Yes, Kenny from Norwood did learn to read, now has a computer and is masquerading as a Grinnell fan.

Meet ya at Barleycorns for a Red, White and Blue Kenny............ Troubleman out.

I'd offer a Hudy and a three way, but nearly everyone on the board would get the wrong idea...

[titan2000]

Keep your social problems in Iowa. 

[scottie]

Illinois and Louisville both go down tonight.  C'mon, Scots...give me one winner this week!   

[Greek Tragedy]

The MWC will or will not get a second team into the tourney based upon the five primary criteria (QOWI, regional winning percentage, record vs. regionally-ranked teams, regional head-to-head results, and record vs. common regional opponents)

Systemfan86

You're missing at what you have to look at in order for a team to be considered for a Pool C bid.  Look at what Greg is saying.  One of the keys is QOWI, or Quality of Wins Index, which used to be called SOSI, Strength of Schedule Index.  If you want a good barometer of how your team stacks up, use that.  Jump off this board and check out the board specifically for this information.

Later in the year, Pat and others will post the QOWI for each team (or top 100) and that will give you a good idea of where Carroll, Lawrence, and Grinnell for that matter, look in the NCAA's eyes.

Yes, the fact that the MWC only always so many games hurts.  Getting more games and a chance to win IN-REGION games can only help the cause.  Remember, out-of-region games is the same as playing 5 guys from the bar in a pick up game...it doesn't count in the NCAA's eyes (or NAIA games or any other non-D3 in-region game).

[Greek Tragedy]

So, you really wanna figure out your team's QOWI?  Here you go:  Add up the points and divide by how many games they've played, in-region of course.

15 points:  road win vs. team at or above .667
14:  home win vs. team at or above .667
13:  road win vs. team at or above .500 but below .667
12:  home win vs. team at or above .500 but below .667
11:  road win vs. team at or above .333-.500
10:  home win vs. team at or above .333-.500
9:  road win vs. team below .333
8:  home win vs. team below .333

7 points:  road loss vs. team at or above .667
6:  home loss vs. team .667
5:  road loss vs. team .500-.667
4:  home loss vs. team .500-.667
3:  road loss vs. team .333-.500
2:  home loss vs. team .333-.500
1:  road loss vs. team below .333
0:  home loss vs. team below .333

The selection criteria starts on page 16 of the NCAA Handbook for Division 3.

[Greek Tragedy]

For Grinnell:  7-3 in region

HW:  Home Win, HL:  Home Loss, RL:  Road Loss, RW: Road Win

HW vs Cornell (1-8, .111)..................8 pts.
HW vs. MacMurray (2-7, .222)...........8pts.
HW vs. Beloit (5-5, .500)...................12 pts.
HW vs. Ripon (3-8, .273)....................8 pts.
HL vs. Wartburg (10-1, .909)..............6 pts.
RL vs. Carthage (3-6, .333).................3 pts.
HW vs. Ill. College (7-5, .583)............. 12 pts.
RW vs. Monmouth (4-6, .400)..............11 pts.
RL vs. Lawrence (10-0, 1.000)............7 pts.
RW vs. St. Norbs (2-7, .222)................9 pts.

84 points divided by 10 games = 8.40 QOWI (if I added correctly)

Lat year, Grinnell's SOSI was 6.778

From the SOSI board:

Men's Pool C (last year)
With the exception of Ramapo (10.23), the six teams chosen for Pool C bids are the top Pool C teams in the NCAA's SOS Index. SOSI is one of five selection criteria.
Team    SOSI
Amherst    10.92
Brockport    10.91
Trinity (Conn.)    10.65
Plymouth St.    10.56
Wittenberg    10.30
Randolph-Macon    10.19

[Mr. Ypsi]

OS,

That IS indeed the system, and while all mechanical systems have there flaws, this one has some SCREAMING inanities.

I know all the cliches about wins and losses (e.g., 'moral victories are for losers' or 'a bad win beats a good loss' or 'a win is a win is a win'), but, quite honestly, is a 3OT win by 1 over Principia more impressive than a 3 OT loss by 1 to Wittenberg?  Well, it scores more on the QOWI!  Right.

I have no solution that wouldn't be hopelessly complex, and would no doubt contain its own flaws (though a QOWI that incorporated the opponents' QOWI would be a start), but , of course, no solution would be very much of an improvement until (to further beat that poor dead horse!) the NCAA gets over picking a NATIONAL tournament by REGIONAL QOWI.  How ANYONE in Indianapolis can defend that with a straight face, I have no clue.

[systemfan86]

For Grinnell:  7-3 in region

HW:  Home Win, HL:  Home Loss, RL:  Road Loss, RW: Road Win

HW vs Cornell (1-8, .111)..................8 pts.
HW vs. MacMurray (2-7, .222)...........8pts.
HW vs. Beloit (5-5, .500)...................12 pts.
HW vs. Ripon (3-8, .273)....................8 pts.
HL vs. Wartburg (10-1, .909)..............6 pts.
RL vs. Carthage (3-6, .333).................3 pts.
HW vs. Ill. College (7-5, .583)............. 12 pts.
RW vs. Monmouth (4-6, .400)..............11 pts.
RL vs. Lawrence (10-0, 1.000)............7 pts.
RW vs. St. Norbs (2-7, .222)................9 pts.

Actually, OS, those were exactly the 'points' I was working with. I made a sincere effort to look at what he said, and went to the NCAA handbook to find that point value chart.  I may have missed a game against an opponent that I thought was D3 or calculated an away game as a home game, and I didn't realize that the number was an average, but I was in the neighborhood. The records you have listed don't necessarily match up with the ones I used - for example. I had IC at 6-6 (before last night's game) which makes a difference.

Thanks for the lecture, anyway.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Make sure the opponents records are only for in-region games as well.  also, sometimes the program on d3hoops messes up, so you occasionally have to double check that every regional game listed is actually a regional game or sometimes regional games aren't listed that way.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I got 8.4 as well for Grinnell.  They will get help as I expect Carthage among others to improve.  The bottom line is they will probably have to beat both Carroll and Lawrence on the same weekend in order to have a shot at Pool C.

[systemfan86]

I'll re-iterate that I'm NOT advocating Grinnell for a Pool C bid. I was primarily asking what it would take. The little bit of number crunching I did made me think that a win against Carroll or Larry was needed, and even then, they'd need to win most (if not all) their road games.

Obviously, the best (and possibly only) chance for any MWC team other than Larry or Carroll to make the tournament is to win the conference tournament.

[scottie]

While I applaud your work and realize that it must have been exhaustive, it still might be a little too early to start talking about Pool C bids.  There are still 10 more games left.  Let's enjoy the regular season first, people.  Or if you live in ScotsNation, try to enjoy it.