MBB: Midwest Conference

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I said this before, but there is no prescription (as far as I can tell) in the handbook that precludes smaller venues from hosting first or second round games.

[hjmphelp]

add another to the list who would like to see a round robin. The 14 game schedule is left over from the old 2 division conference which disappeared years ago. The reason the MWC plays a shorter schedule escapes me right now. Is there someone who can enlighten us?

[systemfan86]

Presuming we're currently talking four teams for two conf tournament spots - and yes that can change quickly - who of GC, KC, BC, and RC has the easiest schedule?

GC - doesn't play Larry or Carroll, but has 4 of 6 on the road including games at BC and RC

KC - has 3 home games and three road but the road games are Larry, Carroll, and GC.

BC - has to catch up 1 to GC and KC, but has 4 of 6 at home; has to play Larry and Carroll in those 6; if they lose to LU and CC, may need to win other 4

RC - has to catch up 1 to GC and KC, but has 4 of 6 at home; has Larry and Carroll at home; if they lose to LU and CC, may need to win other 4

Head to head amongst the four teams:
   2-3 GC @ RC
   2-4 GC @ BC (tough, important weekend for GC)
   2-15 RC @ BC
   2-15 KC @ GC

GC appears to have the most 'control' over it's destiny by playing all three of the other teams. The Ripon @ Beloit game on the 15th could be the play-in game for the tournament.  

Actually if I had to guess, I think KC, GC, and the winner of the RC/BC game all end up at 9-7 and it goes to a tie breaker.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Don't we have to factor in how good each team is?  Ripon is playing lights out now.  It will be interesting to see if they can compete with Lawrence.

[mwc4life]

It will be very interesting indeed...

When I saw Ripon play, they reminded me of how tough LU is on a consistant basis.  Ripon absolutely abused two teams on a south trip, which is never easy to do....Me and Gillie's son Bob Jr. were talking about how Ripon NEVER plays well at LFC...and then they continued on to produce a blow-out (PS - Ripon started the game down 13-2)  I'm just really excited because I know it's going to be a great game....Ripon is peaking right now...and they did it on the road...it can only be better at home.  LU is the barometer in this conference and if Ripon can pull off the shocker, they would be close to being a lock in the tourney...

BC's schedule looks real tough...they need to win two this weekend to have a chance

GC needs to win one game this weekend, but I don't think it happens unless they knock off Beloit.

Knox will go 0-2 this weekend and really be hurting...especially with a match-up with GC waiting

[systemfan86]

Don't we have to factor in how good each team is? Ripon is playing lights out now. It will be interesting to see if they can compete with Lawrence.

Yes, we do, but until someone else beats Larry or Carroll, it's hard to project them losing. That doesn't mean that can't or won't, but the evidence isn't there (yet).

Admitting my bias as a GC fan, I have:

GC winning both home games and picking up one win on the road (IC seems like the best possibility).

KC winning all three home games and losing all three road games.

BC loses to LU and CC, wins at STN and the home games vs GC and MC, then the only game left is RC

RC loses to LU and CC, wins at STN and the home dames vs GC and MC, then the only game left is BC.

Obviously Monmouth throws a wrench in someone's plans if they can win on the road at any of the four teams I'm discussing.

[Mission Man]

I haven't had a chance to post in a week or so, but here are a couple of thoughts....

1) Re: the POY, one play Braier made at MC Friday exemplifies why I think he'll get it. With LU up by three and two minutes left, Kroeger misses a 3 but Braier comes from all the way across the lane out of nowhere to get the offensive board. Takes another 45 seconds off the clock that MC really needed.
2) Hinz was amazing against Knox, but seeing him the day after Braier left no comparison in my mind. Beloit didn't win because of Hinz - they won because Knox scored just six points in almost nine minutes as nobody could hit an open shot, inside or outside. Hinz certainly didn't do much to stop Knox when they took an eight point lead after a 16-3 run to start the second half.
3) Am I the only Knox fan on this board?
4) Knox has a tough road to make the playoffs. They didn't play particularly well in either game this weekend (awful against BC), but they still have 3 games they should win at home (LFC, MC, and IC). The question is, can they win against GC, CC, or LU on the road? I sort of doubt it, but I can hope. If not, they finish 9-7. BC would have to go 4-2 or better, while RC would have to finish 5-1 because Knox has the tiebreaker. I don't think RC can do that, and BC will have a tough time - even with four home games.

[systemfan86]

Presuming the 9-7 scenarios described above:

BC would own tie breaker over KC with 2 wins, and split with GC (-28)
GC would have split with all three other teams (+28 BC, +6 RC, -1 KC)
KC would split with GC (+1), lose tie breaker to BC, and win tie breaker with RC
RC would lose tie breaker to KC and split with GC (-6). 

(All of which is moot if things don't go exactly as described. Why do I spend time doing these things?!) 

[mwc4life]

The difference with RC's schedule is that they play LU and CC at HOME....this by no means gives LU and CC victories.  I know you are speculating on statistics here, but look at Ripon'shistory against top 25 teams....they always play well...They beat the Ill.Wesylen (#2) three years ago, Augustana (#3) two years ago, LU (#4) last year...also they beat Hanover on a neutral court last year.  My point being, Ripon has as much talent as any in this league...when they are challenged and pushed, they play well...they have upset top 5 teams in their gym each of the last 3 years....so assuming they will lose to LU and CC might be a little easier said then done!

Man looking at the run down though, what a great finish to the season...I don't see any other team making a push to challenge for the last two spots...and lets not forget that there are two spots open.  After head-to-head match-ups, then goes your record against the top 4 teams...How cheap is it that GC plays CC only once at home?  Not their fault, but......GC would really be in a pickle if they did. 

This Hinz talk has got to stop...Braier is probably the best player we have seen in a long time....please stop throwing statistics into the mix...winning goes a ton further then any average can indicate...bare with me now...but it's kind of like how Kobe or Lebron will NEVER be as good as Jordan because of the will at any cost.

[Sam Johnson]

Does that include hosting a FOUR TEAM SECTIONAL?  There are bleachers on one of the ends of the court that are removable.  I was there for the Oshkosh game and that was the first time I saw them, though they've apparently been up before.  I'm not sure if that's included in the "1,000" or not.  I would think it is since the gym only has bleachers on one side and then the addition of the removable ones.

The true capacity of Alex (with the bleachers under the hoop which are now there for every game) is around 1500.  You can pack in more than 1500 when its standing room only, but typically the NCAA seems to restrict that kind of seating (i.e. they determine the max # of seats and only release that # of tickets).

Is Alex the largest venue? No.  But it does beat the NCAA minimums by a decent amount (roughly 500 people).

[kbanya30]

The #23 ranked pioneers host snc tonite, CC by 20. Good luck to both CC teams tonite!

Go Carroll!

[systemfan86]

The difference with RC's schedule is that they play LU and CC at HOME....this by no means gives LU and CC victories.  I know you are speculating on statistics here, but look at Ripon'shistory against top 25 teams....they always play well...They beat the Ill.Wesylen (#2) three years ago, Augustana (#3) two years ago, LU (#4) last year...also they beat Hanover on a neutral court last year.  My point being, Ripon has as much talent as any in this league...when they are challenged and pushed, they play well...they have upset top 5 teams in their gym each of the last 3 years....so assuming they will lose to LU and CC might be a little easier said then done!

Yes, that's true, but more recent history has Ripon losing to Larry by 8 points (24 days ago) and by 25 points to Carroll (a week ago). Have they improved enough in that time to overcome those deficits?

Like I said, until someone else beats one of those two, it's hard to project them losing.

[schwanman]

A while ago I asked if it was Braier, hands down, for POY, and my own thinking was that was the case. I think Hinz's strong play of late has at least allowed him to be in the discussion, but he'd probably have to produce at the rate he did last week AND have Lawrence lose a couple games before he could overtake Braier.

Mission Man made an excellent point about Braier's offensive rebound. If offensive rebounds (not putbacks or tip slams) ever made SportsCenter, that would be the one. Definitely a "will to win" type of play.

As far as Monmouth winning on the road to throw a wrench into things, I hope I'm wrong about this loss, but the Scots just never seem to play well at Grinnell. The next least likely win is at Ripon. However, I would give Monmouth good odds to win at Beloit and at Knox. Anybody who has ever been to a Monmouth-Knox game knows that the only difference between the two venues is maybe a 10 percent swing in the crowd (55 percent for the home team, but a healthy 45 for the visitors). The 15-minute travel time is certainly not a fatigue factor for the visitor.

LU's Kroeger showed me some things against Monmouth, and was apparently pretty good the next day, too. The systems they play are apples and oranges, but make no mistake, Kroeger is in Grotberg's talent range.

[mwc4life]

And that 8 pt. loss was nowhere near how close the actual game was....I mean, if i were a betting man, I would go with both LU and CC @ Ripon...but they won't be gimmies (meaning I'm not assuming victory here)....life at home in Ripon is as tough as it gets when the Redhawks are motivated.

[scottie]

However, I would give Monmouth good odds to win at Beloit and at Knox. Anybody who has ever been to a Monmouth-Knox game knows that the only difference between the two venues is maybe a 10 percent swing in the crowd (55 percent for the home team, but a healthy 45 for the visitors). The 15-minute travel time is certainly not a fatigue factor for the visitor.

Make it 54/46, Schwannie.  Scottie is going to be in the house...   8)