MBB: Midwest Conference

[TeeDub]

Isn't LU already a tourny lock??  So if anyone wins the conference tournament other than LU, that would mean 2 teams from the MWC would be in the NCAA tourny, right?

Ah yes, the beginnings of a consipiracy theory....

[dahammer]

Interesting to compare schedules: Non conference games Carroll Marian and Concordia (LMC), Whitewater and Oshkosh (WIAC) Carthage (CCIW) McDaniel and Nichols in FLA tourney. Lawrence MSOE and Wisco Lutheran (LMC) Oshkosh (WIAC) Cathage (CCIW) Goucher and Vangaurd in CA tourney. Of course they play the same conference teams.  What is the big difference between these two? Carroll lost to UWO at the buzzer by 1 while LU won in OT and of course LU beat CC at LU by 5.  Despite the 2 losses CC still has a bigger margin of victory then LU, in fact CC is #6 in the nation at over +16 per game. Why do people so quickly dismiss CC when in fact there is not much difference between them.  BOTH are top teams in the nation, when has the MWC been able to say that?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Quality pull there hammer.  MSOE is better than Marian, but Concordia is better than Wisc Lutheran; Carthage and Oshkosh are the same.  I'd say Whitewater is about as good as Vanguard, but then again one of them is d3 and the other isn't.  They seem real even to me.

Add that to the fact that absolutely everyone in Grinnell seemed to think Carroll was the better team; I'm led to believe they are pretty even.

[scottie]

Okay, THIS is the scenario MWC fans (and conspiracy theorists) should want to see...

LU loses a close game to Carroll in regular season and finishes the regular season 20-1.  They drop a few places in the standings, let's say from #2 to #7.  Then they lose a close game in the first round of the MWC to the #4 team - let's say Ripon or Beloit.  Larry finishes 20-2.  A few other ranked teams have lost as well, so Larry remains a top 15-20 team, and they get a bid.

Carroll wins out during the regular season and finishes 19-2.  Their win over previously unbeaten Larry moves them up to #12 or better.  They win their first game of the MWC vs. Grinnell (Sorry JeffP et al., but I need this to happen for my theory to work...).  BUT, they get upset by Ripon or beloit in the championship game.  They finish 20-3 and are currently ranked #12.  They get a bid.

Ripon or Beloit also make it into the tournament by way of the automatic bid, the third team from the mighty MWC! 

wuddayathink?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I didn't want to bring that up, but it is the conspiracy to end all conspiracies.  However, if you want to get the GC fans on board as well, it could just as easily go:

CC over LU in the regular season, GC then beats CC and Larry in the tournament.  Both finish with 20 wins and stand very good chances of getting in.

This all hinges on CC beating Larry, which a lot of us think they can and will do at home.  It also depends on GC being able to beat CC and LU in consecutive games, which they had a chance to do and certainly are capable of doing if they happen to get the right butterly in Japan to flap its wings at just the right time.

[scottie]

You're right, Hoops Fan.  I was shortchanging CC a couple of W's on their current record.  Grinnellians, you can join in the conspiracy fun now.

[jeffdc]

Well, since JeffP seems to be hibernating....

I can see GC beating LU. I can certainly see them beating RC (well, actually, guess I have, come to think of it) and KC and BC. But Carroll?  I dunno. Could happen. But it doesn't seem that likely.

Unless the afore-mentioned butterfly wings a few CC players on its way to eternity....

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

dc,


It doesn't need to make sense, its a conspiracy theory.  I think JeffP is hunkered down at the Rest with his mac doing taxes.  I can't even imagine, after doing my own last night, doing taxes for a small business on my own.

[Greek Tragedy]

Everyone needs to realize that "rankings" don't matter at all.  Past history and reputation don't matter at all.  "Quality" wins don't matter at all (as in, hey, Oshkosh was ranked #2 in the preseason and we beat them!).

The only think that matters is what the NCAA uses at selection criteria to pick Pool C teams.  This means the QOWI, regional rankings and the other criteria listed in the handbook, which I've posted the link several times.  It doesn't matter than LU is ranked #2 or not ranked at all.  

Carroll, and Larry U for that matter, have the advantage when it comes to regional records (remember, the NCAA picks the Pool C bids on a national basis using regional criteria).  Right now Carroll has two in-region losses, which puts them 3rd in the Midwest Region.  Augustana and Lawrence are undefeated and, by theory, you'd just assume they'd win the AQ.  Now, Transy, Ill. Wes., Lakeland, North Central and Franklin all come in next.

Next, you also have to look at the QOWI.  According to Pat on the QOWI page, this is what it looks like going into Friday's games.

1. Augustana 11.765
2. Lawrence 11.600
11. Ill. Wes. 10.786
23. Tranyslvania 10.421
30. North Central 10.007
36. Carroll 10.000
65. Lakeland 9.389
77. Franklin 9.235

Carroll could be in a little trouble simply because Ill. Wes. is 12-3 in-region and North Central 11-4 and Carroll is 16-2.  Those are pretty close, though Ill. Wes. and North Central probably have better chances of losing in the CCIW than Carroll does (aside possibly to LU) in the MWC.  Basically, you want everyone in your region to lose.  Teams in the CCIW have better chances to raise their QOWI because more teams have better records.  Carroll's QOWI won't gain much with Ripon and Beloit left on the schedule, aside from Lawrence.  

The MWC getting three teams isn't out of the question...and neither is the MWC just getting one in.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

We'll know a heck of a lot more at this time tomorrow.

[LU_nut]

Old School

You are dead on.  Various top 25 polls mean nothing.

I still think both Lu and Carroll are in pretty good shape on getting in.  There has been a significant expansion in pool C berths which should be a key.  If Carroll finishes 4 or 5th in the region, they should be 1-2 in line in terms of pool C.  The winner of the CCIW, either Augie or Il Wes. would get an auto.  LU would get an auto.  Trans may get one as well.  North Central could drop with games remaining against tough CCIW teams and another loss in the post-conference tourney.  A single win against LU next week would help their ratings a lot, even if they dropped a game to LU in the conference tourney.

Of course, if they win the conference tourney, they simplify things for themselves.  While it is nice to think of three teams, I just think LU and Carroll are a significant step ahead of everyone else this year.  Someone would have to beat them back to back to win......away from home.  I have not seen anything to make me think that Knox, Beloit, Ripon, etc. has what it takes to do that.  Even GC, which lost to both LU and Carroll comfortably at home is very unlikely to do it.

[Greek Tragedy]

Using QOWI and Regional Rankings as my barometers, here is my guess for the Midwest Regional Rankings that come out tomorrow (conference leader in bold):

1. Augustana 18-0, 11.765
2. Lawrence 17-0, 11.600
3. Transylvania 17-3, 10.421
4. Carroll 16-2, 10.000
5. Ill. Wesleyan 12-3, 10.786
6. North Central 11-4, 10.077
7. Lakeland 14-4, 9.389
8. Hanover 11-5, 9.800

Franklin and MSOE (both 13-5) have better in-region records than Hanover, but Hanover has a far superior QOWI (9.235 for both Franklin and MSOE).

[systemfan86]

I have to agree with nut...

I haven't seen anything from teams 3 thru 10 that indicate any of them can successfully knock of CC or LU in the tournament. Even if someone knocks off one, I don't see both losing their first game. That means someone has to knock off both teams in back-to-back days.

Long, long odds against that happening.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think you'll see IWU over Carroll, maybe even Transy, but the rest looks solid, and by no means do I think my ideas are any better than yours, just different.

[Sam Johnson]

For anyone who hasn't noticed, Coach Tharp is being interviewed on Hoopsville tonight.  He'll be on during the "Coach's Corner" segment at 8pm Central Time.