MBB: Midwest Conference

[systemfan86]

Going out on a limb here:

Top 4
Lawrence:  13-3 (good call Hoops fan)
Carroll:  11-5
Ripon:  10-6
Beloit:  10-6

Since T-Bird was the only one to provide records...
This scenario would require that one of the 5 or 6 loss teams beat Larry on their floor during the tournament. If they're a full two games ahead of these teams, that in itself might be harder than getting two teams in the tournament.

My thought is that we have to have two teams with no more than 4, possibly 5, total losses that play each other in the championship game. That likely means we would have to have a 14-2 and a 13-3 team in the conference. Given the history of the past two years and the fact that Breier is still there, Larry seems like a good choice for being one of those two teams. I just don't know who the other is. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be my Pioneers, just because the style of play doesn't lend itself to that kind of record. That said, if they sneak into the tournament, they could be the type of team that gets hot and beats a 14-2 champion to win the auto bid.

[The Roop]

My thought is that we have to have two teams with no more than 4, possibly 5, total losses that play each other in the championship game.

5 losses is also about all I can imagine the 2nd MWC team having to make the tournament as a Pool C. This would likely require going unbeaten in their non-conference schedule as well. Can anyone even do that this year

Lawrence has the most to lose by getting upset in the MWC Tournament, even if it was in the title game, and is least likely to get a Pool C of any possible contender. Here's why............. For the sake of argument I'll give them a 13-3 conference record and also say that they go undefeated in the non-conference schedule. They simply don't play enough games this year to accumulate the Pool C points.

Once again they play a D1 Exhibition, so that's one less game than everyone else. Then they travel to California to play in the same Vanguard (NAIA) University Tournament as Beloit. There's two more games that won't count for anything. As far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned Lawrence only has a 20 game schedule this year. So if they lost, even in the title game of the MWC, the best record they could have would be 18-4. 18 win teams get left out all the time.

Even though the tournament expands this year there is no good reason for any MWC teams to play D1 exhibitions or out of region games. 

[the game]

1 LU
2 Ripon
3. Carroll
4. LFC or BC (Guard play will be critical for both)

[Mr. Ypsi]

Roop,

Although reputation, of course, doesn't OFFICIALLY count, I could easily see 'Larry' getting in with 18 wins - their run in the tourney last year WILL count, even if not officially.

They certainly would have a better chance of getting in with a 'borderline' record than any other MWC team.

[The Roop]

Mr. Ypsi,

IWU is in a similar situation in the CCIW. With their D1 exhibition, NAIA and out of region D3 games, they only have a 19 game schedule as I see it; possibly less depending on how the in season tournaments play out.

[Mr. Ypsi]

roop,

I haven't checked the schedules for sure, but I think this is a fairly standard Titan year - the d1 exhibition is unusual, but they always play SEVERAL out-of-region games.  Seems to work OK!

Win the AQ and the rest is irrelevant!  (And in 2001 we squeaked in with a 3rd CCIW pool C [correction: finished 3rd in CCIW; 2nd C bid], and finished 3rd in the country!)

But, yeah, it sometimes backfires - there have been years we got left out when we were certainly among the top half of teams that got in.  Potent [out-of-region] national teams prepare you for the conference season, but they do little [officially, nothing] on selection day.

[Titan Q]

The number of wins does not appear to be a big factor in the Division III selection process.  Of all the Primary Criteria, it seems that "win-loss percentage vs regional opponents" and the "Quality of Wins Index" are the biggies.

One could argue that games vs strong NAIA teams like Olivet Nazarene, St. Xavier, and Westmont (as IWU is playing) are a good thing in that you are playing against Division III top 25 caliber teams without risking a) a hit in win-loss %, and b) a 6 or 7 point entry in the QOWI by losing a Division III game.  You could also argue that in some respects playing some good NAIA teams is better than playing bad Division III in-region teams in that a win vs a bad D3 in-region team (under .333 winning %) will be 8 or 9 points in the QOWI.  You want your QOWI to be 10+, so and 8 or 9 actually brings it down.

2005-06 Championship Handbook...

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/basketball/2006/2006_d3_m_basketball_handbook.pdf

I actually think a schedule like IWU's this year is just about right for a strong team in a strong conference.  The Titans have plenty of opportunities to pick up wins vs good in-region D3 teams (Wabash, Chicago, Wash U, Illinois College, Hanover) and the games that "don't count" (U. of Illinois, St. Xavier, Olivet Nazarene, Texas-Dallas, Puget Sound, Westmont) are against  good competiton.  I say "for a team in a strong conference" because in the CCIW you'll get a chance to pick up good in-region wins and raise your QOWI by beating the likes of Augustana, Elmhurst, North Central, Carthage, etc -- teams that should have good non-conference records.  (The down side of playing in a strong conference of course is the fact you will lose some league games, thus hurting your win-loss % - playing in-region D3 cupcakes in the non-conf. can help this.)

IWU Schedule...
http://www.iwu.edu/~iwunews/sports/mbb-sked05.html

[Dolph Stanley]

I hope you are all right and I am wrong but I am puzzled by the love being shown Beloit when picking a final four.

A team like Knox finished 8-8 and returns four of their five starters (unless someone left I am unawre of).  Monmouth was 9-7 and returns four as well.  Yet, not once have I seen these schools considered as one of the teams to make the final four while Beloit returns the majority of a 5-11 squad and everyone seems to want to give them a spot.

It might happen, I hope it happens but I will have my doubts until it does.

[lu_nut]

Dolph

several days ago I listed Knox in my top 5.  I think they have two of the top 10 players in the league.  Their challenge is depth, even within their starting 5.

[beloitfan57]

my personal opinion, has been changing of late and i think you will see ripon,lawrence,knox and grinnel in the final four. i dont think my team will stay together as a team. last year i saw a lot of teams in this conference. all i can this conference is up for grabs. their are two teams that have no chance. st.nobert and illinois college, returning leading scorer from last year averaged 5.4ppg, that cant be a good thing.

[Early]

Did anyone else read/see that player from Morris that died in a football celebration of taking down the goal posts?  That is trajic. 

lu_nut, who are knox's studs....I don't remember them from last year?

I hope I get some more support from the RC crew come season   
  <-- this is me pouting

[lu_nut]

maclin (might have lead the MWC in scoring...did much of the year) and Zirks(transfer down last year from d 2 I think.

[steve_kohl]

Am i really getting called out on the D3hoops board?  Wow.  I've been out of the RC loop, and don't have much to add, but i can see the hawks being very competitive with their three returning starters from last year McMullen, Johnson, and Schmitting.  I haven't heard much about their freshmen, but i did hear that they have an ultra-athletic guy who's last name i believe is Brown.  I'm not sure how much he'll play as a freshman, but he might be a guy to remember down the road.

The loss of Becker and Massen will hurt, but i think their core is definitely strong enough to get them back to the tourney.

I'm back baby!!! 

[hjmphelp]

Welcome home, Sir!

[steve_kohl]

I believe I'll be heading up to GB on Nov. 1 and watching them play, so I'll have a better update on the team then.  Stay tuned.