MBB: Midwest Conference

[LU_nut]

Scots 4:

The LU Oshkosh game is listed as available via the MWC TV deal if you are willing to shell out $5.95.  The picture is not perfect, but it is not too bad either.  

Nut

[LU_nut]

So Old School:  who do you pick for Tuesday's game?

[Scots4]

LU_Nut....thank you. I am going to spend the rest of the day crunching numbers and analyzing to determine if this fits into my lowly college budget. Will anyone on here be providing in game updates?

[wc2viking]

Good analysis, Old School.  I admit that I was ready to post a rant on LU being ignored in the Top 25 until I took a closer look at their schedule.  The MWC is definitely percieved as having a down year, and none of LU's non-conference wins are against an opponent with a winning record.

However, if a win over UW-O doesn't put LU in the top 25, then I'll rant!

[Greek Tragedy]

Compliments of David Collinge over at the Top 25.  This is last week's poll, so we'll see how the bottom portions of the Top 25 do THIS week and if LU can pull off the win vs. Oshkosh and have two very convincing wins this weekend as well, things could go their way...because, not only do YOU need to win, but you need others AHEAD of you to lose.

The 25th place team has 66 points.  If you get a 1st place vote, I think that's 25 points and if you get a 25th place vote, that's 1 point.  So, even with a win over Oshkosh, Lawrence has some work to do considering they have zero votes.

HOW THEY FARED (week of Jan. 14-20)(COMPLETE)      
      
#   1   Rochester (14-0) def. NYU 70-54 and def. #2 Brandeis 74-68
#   2   Brandeis (12-2) won at #24 Carnegie Mellon 60-48 and lost at #1 Rochester 74-68
#   3   Amherst (13-2) won at Elms 73-67, def. Tufts 79-68, and def. Bates 77-76
#   4   Mary Hardin-Baylor (11-3) lost at Hardin-Simmons 76-66 and lost at McMurry 79-76
#   5   Washington U. (12-2) def. Emory 85-63 and def. Case Western Reserve 85-57
#   6   Hope (12-2) def. Kalamazoo 88-60 and def. Adrian 74-70
#   7   Puget Sound (12-2) def. Whitman 106-86 and lost to Whitworth 83-78
#   8   Williams (14-2) def. Lasell 75-65, lost at Bowdoin 78-73, and won at Colby 67-61
#   9   Augustana (11-4) def. #18 Wheaton (IL) 66-61 and lost at Carthage 74-68
#   10   UW-Whitewater (13-2) def. UW-Stout 92-64
#   11   UW-Stevens Point (13-3) won at UW-Stout 83-77 and def. UW-Superior 78-57
#   12   Elmhurst (12-3) lost to Carthage 79-68 and def. Illinois Wesleyan 90-77
#   13   Capital (13-2) won at Heidelberg 99-90 and def. Otterbein 86-57
#   14   Mass.-Dartmouth (15-0) def. Eastern Conn. 97-92 and won at Plymouth State 84-80
#   15   Stevens (12-2) lost at St. John Fisher 71-59 and won at Alfred 60-49
#   16   UW-Oshkosh (12-4) lost at UW-Eau Claire 57-54 and won at UW-La Crosse 81-68
#   17   Guilford (9-4) lost at Roanoke 68-56 and won at Emory & Henry at 120-112
#   18   Wheaton (IL) (12-3) lost at #9 Augustana 66-61 and def. North Park 70-63
#   19   Wooster (12-3) won at Hiram 117-87 and lost at Wittenberg 87-86 (OT)
#   20   Centre (14-1) won at Austin 68-62 and won at Colorado Coll. 70-55
#   21   Plattsburgh St. (12-2) def. SUNYIT 81-69 and def. Cortland St. 74-69
#   22   Virginia Wesleyan (11-3) def. Hampden-Sydney 73-58 and won at Lynchburg 92-64
#   23   Millsaps (15-1) won at U. of Dallas 66-55, def. Oglethorpe 103-76 and def. Sewanee 76-75
#   24   Carnegie Mellon (10-4) lost to #2 Brandeis 60-48 and lost to NYU 63-58
#   25   Randolph-Macon (13-2) def. Eastern Mennonite 94-68 and won at Hampden-Sydney 72-59

[Pat Coleman]

I would say you don't NEED teams ahead of you to lose, but it definitely helps. However, a team with an impressive enough resume will certainly jump others ranked ahead of it.

[fightintitan2006]

Scots,

I may be watching on MWCTV and could provide in-game updates on the board. I am considering going to the game, but probably wouldnt make it until 7:30...does anyone know if LU is expecting a sellout?

I just checked their website and they were limited to 1100 people during their 2005-06 run and had about 900 for Grinnell Friday.

[Greek Tragedy]

I seriously doubt it's going to be a sellout.  Grinnell attracts fans that normally wouldn't come because they are an interesting watch, sometimes.  Oshkosh, depending on the weather...but still, I would be surprised to see 900 there for Oshkosh.

Oh yeah, Larry U. got 10 votes this week!

[Greek Tragedy]

I'd have to say that Larry U. will have to play some solid TEAM defense to stop Oshkosh and their 3-headed monster of DJ Marsh, Dane Seckar-Anderson and Matt Miller.

If you guys had trouble stopping Marsh last year, you're in for it this year as Marsh has been nearly unstoppable and could be a candidate for this year's WIAC Player of the Year.  He's probably the only guy that create his own shot and his athleticism is going to be hard to stop.  When the Titans need a score, they'll go to him.  The key will be stopping his dribble penetration.

Matt Miller is a 3-pt. machine.  If you don't watch it, he'll launch it from Little Chute.  Last year, he just came off the bench to shoot 3s, but this year he's really been a floor leader. 

Dane Seckar-Anderson can be a monster in the middle.  He's pretty quick and shoots well for his size. 

Lastly, Jordan Johnson isn't really a scorer, but he rebounds with the best of them.  The 5th starter, Greg Schrimpf.  There really isn't much to say about him.  There were a couple of games that he scored some points, but make no doubt about it, things go through DJ, Miller and DSA.

The key will probably be to try to get those starters into foul trouble.  Four of the five starters play 30+ minutes.  They only have 3 scorers, so if you can even get one of them on the bench with foul trouble, you have a shot.  I really think that's what will get you over the hump. 

Keep the score low.  They've scored 46, 53, 53 and 54 points in their losses.  I know LU plays good defense, but you'll need to be up for the challenge.  Oshkosh started out on fire but have gone just 5-4 in their last nine games.

I'm not going to put a prediction on the game, but it'll be single digits.

[LU_nut]

Thanks Old School.  I do look for a close game.  I think that playing at home should be a big help.  If LU continues to shoot 50% from 3 land(a big if), they should be in good shape.   I am not sure who is equipped to guard Marsh....maybe Kyle Mcgillis will find one more game of eligibility.

I do think it is time for the MWC to get some respect in top 25 voting.  The winner has had 4 straight years of post season success including wins in places like Gustavas, Augustana, St. Thomas, Buena Vista, and a home win against St. Thomas.   LU has beaten teams like Plattville, Oshkosh, Ursinis, and Cathage in the regular season.   I fully recognize that the MWC is not on a par with the CCIW, WIAC or UAA.   I do believe they are clearly ahead of many of the other conferences.

One good example is the year after LU lost at Point(national champs) in the round of 16.   They had previously beaten Gustavas, a one man team(senior) on their court in the NCAA.  LU had their two best players back plus many others the next year.  Gustavas was rated in the preseason....LU did not get one vote.    Preseason ratings do not mean much.  As such, it is and should be easy to go around people with quality wins, even if the team ahead of you wins.  It is not like that team did someting to earn the higher rating.   Incidently, that year LU worked it s way from no votes to number 1 for 5 weeks.
Again, just my opinion.  I am not sure if LU is a top 25 team yet.  I think the next 4 games will clearly indicate whether they are or not.

[LU_nut]

ps: as pointed out, beating a D2 program with a winning record on their court is a big deal which LU did over the christmas break.

[Pat Coleman]

As pointed out elsewhere, not every D-II team is that good.

Massey ranks Nova Southeatern as 185th out of 279 in Division II. Nova's .201 rating is the same as Coe's and is just behind University of Chicago.

[LU_nut]

Pat,  I agree, every D2 program is not that good.  Not sure what Massey ratings you are looking at.  Current one shows Nova at 147 out of 279 or right in the middle of the road.  The have a .345 rating, putting it in the top 50 D3s or so.   Nova was 5-2 when LU played them on their court and beat them by 13 teams.  I categorize that as a good win.

If we are going to use Massey, it is interesting to note that LU is number 9.  That rating is probably impacted by the Nova victory.....kind of making the point that LU 05 was trying to make.

I recognize that preseason and early season rankings are largely done to gain fan interest at all levels.  The good news is actual play tends to work things out over time.

Nut

[wc2viking]

As pointed out elsewhere, not every D-II team is that good.

Massey ranks Nova Southeatern as 185th out of 279 in Division II. Nova's .201 rating is the same as Coe's and is just behind University of Chicago.

OK, well since you opened up the topic.  Lawrence is 10th in the Massey ratings....and still not in the D3Hoops Top 25.

edit: I suppose a lot of LU fans were ready to pounce on that one!

[Pat Coleman]

Massey hadn't updated for this week when I made my post this afternoon.

And as I said elsewhere too, it's one thing for Massey to be off by the 16 spots it would take to keep LU out of the 25. It is another thing entirely for it to be off by a hundred.

Massey's formula has always loved anyone who has a schedule connected to a WIAC team. Nothing new.