MBB: Midwest Conference

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

He has been more erratic this year, but there's a lot of big games yet to come.

[systemfan86]

I believe the coaches or SIDs or whoever votes for the conference awards take any stats from any Grinnell player and handicaps their stats, including me.  Is that fair, no.  I'm not saying it is or not, but I think that they do this and that's why his stats don't look as good as they are.  Grotberg's stats are similar to Drury, for example, but I don't think Grotberg or Arseneault get the benefit of the doubt.  Like I said, is it right?  No...but I don't doubt it happens.  Should those players be punished because of the system they play in?  No. 

My argument against the pro-rating of GC number has generally been the number of minutes they play - much less than normal starters - should be factored in. But in reality, if you discount the GC numbers you'd need to do the same for any up tempo team? Carroll has taken 21% more shots than Larry in conference games, and scores 5% more per game than Larry, should we discount CC players by 5% or 20% to even out the numbers? Doesn't seems quite right.

This line of thought raised an interesting question in my mind: is the issue here "good looks at the basket"? I've heard GC approach as getting as many shots as possible, but I'd like to suggest that like all other teams, they want good looks at the basket. But instead of patiently waiting for these looks, they push the tempo to get as many good looks as possible. If you get more good looks, and you keep shooting whenever they appear, you have a chance to score points and ultimately win. In this way, is GC essentially any different than other teams?

[hjmphelp]

Welcome 00! Nice to have a new perspective here! I do think the % G'berg puts up could appear to an outsider as troubling. In his defense, remember that he puts up shots that most would NOT be allowed to put up. The difference is that in System play he is almost required to. When he is left alone he is usually dead on. When challenged, he isnt...and any more he always is heavily guarded. Like Davey, I would like to see him kick the ball out more and pass more, but with the way things are currently set up, that may not be in the cards. If you want to dock him because of the % then so be it, but those of us who have more familiarity with system play know that his % would be higher if he weren't asked to take the bulk of the shots. Tuesday night he wasn't hitting and everyone else stepped up. The defense against him wasn't all that stellar, it was just an off night for him. As Hoops would suggest, he has been a bit more erratic this year, but he has usually faced much tougher defenses that are almost completely geared towards stopping him. 2 on 1 and 3 on one defenses are rough to score on...hense the need to do better with kickouts and passes to the open man and not just on his shifts! I think that has improved lately and is one of the reasons Grinnell is faring so well right now.

[Greek Tragedy]

Grinnell nation:

The idea of pro-rating may be ludicrous, but that doesn't mean the coaches (or SIDs or whatever) don't take that into account.  For all I know, they don't and they vote on a normal basis.  I'm not saying it's right, I'm just saying that's how I feel...when I see Grotberg leading the league in scoring at 29 and then Drury behind him at 20, I do take into account the different styles of play and maybe I do ask myself if Grotberg could do that in another offensive system and on most accounts, I'd say no.  Like Jeffp said (I think), maybe he wouldn't be allowed to do that on another team.  That doesn't mean I don't think he's a good player, or even Arseneault for that matter.  I've NEVER said they weren't good players.  In fact, I'm impressed with Little A's assist to turnover ratio (138:47).  In that style of play, I could see having so many assists, but, again, with that style of play, I would think he'd cough it up a lot more.  Grotberg, on the other hand, is just 55:58.

True, Grotberg is shooting just 37.6% overall and 32.6% from beyond the arc, but he is hitting a more-than-respectable 47% inside the arc.  Going to a more conventional offense at the end of games has not been overlooked.  I've seen it, and I've been both impressed and shocked. lol.  Like I have said before, they have morphed over the last several years since I first saw them play (the post player is more than just a guy taking up space now, and I said I like Chamberlain from the games I've seen).  Outside of the impressive scoring numbers, I think Arseneault has better overall stats than Grotberg.

I don't believe I'm looking at Grinnell through WIAC eyes as I've seen a lot of basketball outside of the WIAC.  Some of those games have been MWC v WIAC or someone else v WIAC, but I have seen my share of MWC games and even suffered through a few of LMC/NIIC/NathCon games.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

By the WIAC eyes comment, I just meant that you're used to a really high level of play.  I didn't mean to infer any bias or anything.  I just think sometimes its harder for fans of the really good conferences to fully appreciate top notch players in other leagues.

[Greek Tragedy]

No problem Hoops Fan.  Believe me, I appreciated Tommy Becker and Chris Braier, among others.  The WIAC, along with having really good players, has their share of really bad players as well! lol.

For any of those interested, I'm planning on being at the Carroll/Lawrence game tomorrow.  Hopefully the women's game down there will be running late since I'm first at the River Falls/Oshkosh game.  Usual garb, NY Rangers jacket and probably the only one wearing a purple Stevens Point Pointers hat.

[RiponRed34]

I have a question.

Do coaches ever take into consideration Grinnell plays no defense?  I guess if you put up 30 points a game, you don't have to play any defense.  I mean rarely does Grotberg or Davey have to guard the teams best player because they are traping for most of the game.  Players that are considered "stoppers" and then go down and score 18/20 a night are far more impressive.  Grotberg/Davey get to go all-out for 1 to 2 minutes hard...then get a rest.

Let's not forget Grotberg puts up (a guess here) on average 25-30 shots a game...IN 22 MINUTES!  That alone should tell you the stats are extremly inflated.  NO ONE gets to shoot that much in that little time unless you're Kobe Bryant.   Is Grotberg the best scorer in the country? Stats will say yes, basketball IQ will say there's no way. 

So wait, since Grotberg takes shots that normally players wouldn't take, he gets a pass on his shooting %??? C'mon, that same logic tell you he probably hits shots most players wouldn't take cause he has no consious.  No one at Grinnell does and there has to be something said about players who don't have to worry about what or when is a "good" shot.

I'm I just crazy....probably!

With that being said, is Grotberg a first teamer?  Probably, because no one looks at anything but stats and when you average that many points there's no way you can left off.  Does that mean he is a top 5 talent in this league...again, no way.

[schwanman]

I come down on the side that Grinnell's statistics have to be taken with a grain of salt, and here's one reason why. Would anyone out there say that Grinnell is the worst defensive team in the league? I don't think there are many who would. Yet they are in dead last in that "statistic" by a whopping 21 points per game.

So when the argument is made that Arseneault is a first teamer because of his national-best assist total, I'll counter with the Grinnell defense analogy. His "statistics" are that high because of the System, not because he's the most reliable passer in the country. Just like Grinnell gives up that many points because of the System, not because they're brutal defensively.

I'm with the opinion from 20 posts or so ago that stats don't make the player an all-conference selection. You can just tell by their game. True, you'd better do more than score, say, 5.0 points and pull down 2.0 rebounds, so stats do matter some, but they don't tell the whole story.

Personally, from what I've seen in the past and read, Grotberg is a first teamer. I can't weigh in on the entire first squad, though, because the Scots have only played three home MWC games this year. I'm still waiting to see Grinnell, Lawrence, Carroll and Lake Forest at our gym.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Do coaches ever take into consideration Grinnell plays no defense? 

Do we have to do this every year?  We totally had this whole debate last season and the one before that.  GC is essentially nothing but defense.  They spend a vast majority of their time trapping and chasing the ball and very little of it actually shooting the ball.  THat's the whole system.


As for the other arguments.  People obviously do get to shoot that much, the players at Grinnell.  You really can't penalize someone for the way they play.  You can't make arguments about that with any precision.  If a guy scores 12ppg in the Princeton offense, is that like 20 in "regular" play or 25 or what?  They score what they score.

It's like saying "that guys fast and he's short too, so he's even faster than the tall guy next to him."  If you get from one point to another first, that's all that matters.  All of these guys play by the same rules.  Sure they play differently, but you can judge based on perspective.  Do his stats vary when he's playing a strong team and a weak one?  Do they go up on the road versus at home.  It's not necessarily comparing stats to each other, as someone pointed out, Carroll and Lawrence play pretty differently as well.  It's all just a judgment call.

Coaches should, and I believe they do, judge these votes based on having seen the players play.  If a guy is good; he's good.  I really have a hard time believe that someone who knows basketball can see Grotberg play and not place him among the best in the MWC.  I'm not about to say he's one of the top individual talents in the country, but he's sure very, very good.

[hjmphelp]

OS makes a good point concerning ratio-G'berg doesn'r show as well as others do. However, Hoops make a good one as well-we shouldn't be slaves to stats-we all know how easy it is to lie with them. Hoops also make an often ignored point concerning G'bergs abilities in Michigan AAU leagues where he put up similar numbers against some kids now playing DI ball. He would have been a DI recruit if he hadn't been injured  and unable to play his senior year. His Rehab story is quite harrowing, BTW. The kid has a bunch of courage and great perserverance to even be on the court in college.

RiponRed34 - Lets not start the "no defense' horsepucky again. You may have played against them and that gives you a different view from mine, but to say they don't play defense is dumb...and quite denigrating to the teams they win against as well as to the Grinnell team itself. But, as long as folks don't think GC plays defense I'm guessing they will keep winning.

[systemfan86]

I do take into account the different styles of play ...  That doesn't mean I don't think he's a good player, or even Arseneault for that matter.  I've NEVER said they weren't good players. 

Outside of the impressive scoring numbers, I think Arseneault has better overall stats than Grotberg.

I understand your position, and I didn't perceive it as a slight. I think the concern we have is with the nature of 'adjusting' the numbers. It's perfectly logical that someone might do it, but I'm always concerned that people do it to discredit rather than discount.

Regarding Arseneault, I agree. I think Arseneault should be a clear All-MWC selection (based on performance to date). I think TTHG should get consideration, but because he's not been as consistent, I can see where he might not make it.

[systemfan86]

Do coaches ever take into consideration Grinnell plays no defense? 

Do we have to do this every year?  We totally had this whole debate last season and the one before that.  GC is essentially nothing but defense. 

Thanks for beating me to this HF.

My response was going to be "How bad are the teams that Grinnell plays if they commit 28 turnovers a game when Grinnell 'plays no defense'?" I mean really, you have to SUCK to make that many unforced errors a game.

[systemfan86]

"How bad are the teams that Grinnell plays if they commit 28 turnovers a game when Grinnell 'plays no defense'?" I mean really, you have to SUCK to make that many unforced errors a game.

Even worse, how bad do you have to be to LOSE TO a team that 'plays no defense' - at home no less!


Sorry RR34, you started this ball rolling...

[Greek Tragedy]

Regarding Arseneault, I agree. I think Arseneault should be a clear All-MWC selection (based on performance to date). I think TTHG should get consideration, but because he's not been as consistent, I can see where he might not make it.

It's not a matter of them making All-MWC, it's a matter of them making 1st team All-MWC, which means they have to be one of five top players...which I might question and argue considering who else there is.  I see Arseneault making it before Grotberg, actually.

Do coaches ever take into consideration Grinnell plays no defense? 

They definitely play defense...that's can't be argued.  Even when the opponents break the press, the last guy standing (usually Chamberlain) still defends the 3 vs. 1 break.  Sure, the opponents usually score, but what do you expect, it's 3 vs. 1!  If the opponents break the press, kudos to them...that's the point.

[RiponRed34]

I KNOW GRINNELL PLAYS DEFENSE!!!!

The point is STATISTICALLY, it will show that they are among the WORST defensive teams in the country giving up nearly 110 points a game.  My whole agrument revolves around how inflated the statistics are and how they DON't tell the true story.  Hence, Grotberg can score 40 in a game and it won't be as amazing as the 38 Steve Kohl but up on Beloit a while back (12-15 FG).  Wasn't he a pre-season All-American?  Old School, you mean to tell me you'd take Grotberg over 10 players in the WIAC alone? C'mon

Grinnell runs a SYSTEM.  We all know that, talked about it whatever.  IT WORKS.  It doesn't mean I'm a huge fan of the system, but there is no agruing that it works.  Grotberg, I have no doubt is a good player, but his numbers are extremly inflated due to the system.

Systemfan

That's why you play the games.  Grinnell's system worked that night.  Let me ask you something.  How many conference tournament championships have Grinnell won with this style (one or two..three?)  How many NCAA victories do they have playing this style?  Anyone?  It's a lot harder to win games when officials do their Job!  Not saying officals are the entire reason Grinnell win or loses.  But it's to their advantage most games.  And then there were just some nights you could not stop Ed Brands with all five players.