MBB: Midwest Conference

[Gregory Sager]

Please don't. Chicago played very well in that game last week (which I saw), but Augie was without preseason All-American Drew Wessels. The Augie with Wessels that went into overtime with Wash U on Saturday night is a significantly better team than the Augie that needed that Jordan Delp jumper with 2.5 left on the clock to beat the Maroons.

OK, I got it.  Augie (CCIW's preseason #1) is a one-man team.  Without Wessels, they're significantly worse than Lake Forest (MWC's preseason #7).  Thanks for clearing that up! 

Oh, please. Talk about distorting someone else's post ...

First of all, comparative scores are an unsound way to compare teams. Basketball teams are not constants; any number of variables can affect how well a team plays on any given night. Ever seen one of those chains with which people "prove" that an obscure D3 or NAIA team is better than the top D1 team in the country? That's the reductio ad absurdum to the comparative scores argument. Comparing scores is simply not all that accurate a way to measure teams that haven't played each other.

Second, I sat with the Wheaton coaches during the Augie @ Chicago game, and we agreed that if Wessels had played Augie would've won by about eight or nine points, and the game wouldn't have come down to the wire. No aspersions cast on Chicago for that, because, as I said, the Maroons played well. After the game I spoke one of the Augie broadcasters, and he agreed with the Wheaton coaches and I.

OK, so if Augie with Wessels would've beaten Chicago by eight, and LFC beat Chicago by 19, then that makes LFC eleven points better than Augie according to the comparative-scores argument, right? Let's see how many people you can sway with that line of reasoning.

[wc2viking]

Sager, I agree, hence the in my post.

LU falls to Marian tonight 87-73.  I don't know the details of the game, but Lawrence shouldn't be losing to teams like Marian (midpack in the lowly Nathcon).  I hope the team pulls it together soon.

(edited: formatting issues)

[Gregory Sager]

Sager, I agree, hence the in my post.

LU falls to Marian tonight 87-73.  I don't know the details of the game, but Lawrence shouldn't be losing to teams like Marian (midpack in the lowly Nathcon).  I hope the team pulls it together soon.

(edited: formatting issues)

That Lawrence score is actually a good illustration of why it doesn't pay to put too much stock in games played before December 1. They count, of course, but I wouldn't leap to any big conclusions about most teams just yet. Lots of variables, lots of instability, lots of upsets. I suspect that if Lawrence and Marian were to replay that game in February, the result would be very, very different.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Please don't. Chicago played very well in that game last week (which I saw), but Augie was without preseason All-American Drew Wessels. The Augie with Wessels that went into overtime with Wash U on Saturday night is a significantly better team than the Augie that needed that Jordan Delp jumper with 2.5 left on the clock to beat the Maroons.

OK, I got it.  Augie (CCIW's preseason #1) is a one-man team.  Without Wessels, they're significantly worse than Lake Forest (MWC's preseason #7).  Thanks for clearing that up! 

Of no conceivable importance, but just for the record: although d3hoops.com had Augie #2 and Wheaton #3 in the nation, the pre-season coach's poll in the CCIW tabbed Wheaton #1, Augie #2.

So, Augie #2 in the conference and #2 in the nation - sounds about right to me!   (Afterall, in 2001 IWU finished 3rd in the CCIW and 3rd in the nation - there's precedent! )

[petemcb]

Sager, I agree, hence the in my post.

LU falls to Marian tonight 87-73.  I don't know the details of the game, but Lawrence shouldn't be losing to teams like Marian (midpack in the lowly Nathcon).  I hope the team pulls it together soon.

(edited: formatting issues)

That Lawrence score is actually a good illustration of why it doesn't pay to put too much stock in games played before December 1. They count, of course, but I wouldn't leap to any big conclusions about most teams just yet. Lots of variables, lots of instability, lots of upsets. I suspect that if Lawrence and Marian were to replay that game in February, the result would be very, very different.

Nonetheless, it feels like there have been more of these "upsets" than usual at this time of year.  It will be interesting to see whether this is a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or will order be restored to the D3 universe.  These upsets are making for some intriguing speculative possibilites for the rest of the season. 

[Gregory Sager]

Sager, I agree, hence the in my post.

LU falls to Marian tonight 87-73.  I don't know the details of the game, but Lawrence shouldn't be losing to teams like Marian (midpack in the lowly Nathcon).  I hope the team pulls it together soon.

(edited: formatting issues)

That Lawrence score is actually a good illustration of why it doesn't pay to put too much stock in games played before December 1. They count, of course, but I wouldn't leap to any big conclusions about most teams just yet. Lots of variables, lots of instability, lots of upsets. I suspect that if Lawrence and Marian were to replay that game in February, the result would be very, very different.

Nonetheless, it feels like there have been more of these "upsets" than usual at this time of year.  It will be interesting to see whether this is a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or will order be restored to the D3 universe.  These upsets are making for some intriguing speculative possibilites for the rest of the season. 

I certainly agree. Early instability is a good thing. It keeps interest high; the fans of teams that have modest expectations (or bad expectations) are less likely to write off their teams and stop coming to games by mid-December. And it can also keep the fans of perennial contenders from getting too much of a swelled head as well.

[petemcb]

Sager, I agree, hence the in my post.

LU falls to Marian tonight 87-73.  I don't know the details of the game, but Lawrence shouldn't be losing to teams like Marian (midpack in the lowly Nathcon).  I hope the team pulls it together soon.

(edited: formatting issues)

That Lawrence score is actually a good illustration of why it doesn't pay to put too much stock in games played before December 1. They count, of course, but I wouldn't leap to any big conclusions about most teams just yet. Lots of variables, lots of instability, lots of upsets. I suspect that if Lawrence and Marian were to replay that game in February, the result would be very, very different.

Nonetheless, it feels like there have been more of these "upsets" than usual at this time of year.  It will be interesting to see whether this is a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or will order be restored to the D3 universe.  These upsets are making for some intriguing speculative possibilites for the rest of the season. 

I certainly agree. Early instability is a good thing. It keeps interest high; the fans of teams that have modest expectations (or bad expectations) are less likely to write off their teams and stop coming to games by mid-December. And it can also keep the fans of perennial contenders from getting too much of a swelled head as well.

Early instability is a good thing.   Check
It keeps interest high.   Check
less likely to write off their teams....    Check
Keep the fans of perennial contenders from swelled head(s).   Hmmmmmm.  Maaaybeee.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Keep the fans of perennial contenders from swelled head(s).   Hmmmmmm.  Maaaybeee.

Now, Pete, don't go there - you'll force me to remind Lawrence fans about the details of the demise of their undefeated 2005-06 season.

I admit it - I'm incorrigible.

[Gregory Sager]

Keep the fans of perennial contenders from swelled head(s).   Hmmmmmm.  Maaaybeee.

Now, Pete, don't go there - you'll force me to remind Lawrence fans about the details of the demise of their undefeated 2005-06 season.

I admit it - I'm incorrigible.

OK, Pete, I concede. Now that Exhibit A has just announced himself, I am hereby forced to retract my swelled-head-fan statement.

[John Gleich]

Of no conceivable importance, but just for the record: although d3hoops.com had Augie #2 and Wheaton #3 in the nation, the pre-season coach's poll in the CCIW tabbed Wheaton #1, Augie #2.

So, Augie #2 in the conference and #2 in the nation - sounds about right to me!   (Afterall, in 2001 IWU finished 3rd in the CCIW and 3rd in the nation - there's precedent! )

... And in '04, UWSP took second in the WIAC to River Falls and first in the country... in '05 Point tied for the conference crown with Platteville and won another championship... so by certain logic, the UWRF Falcons and UWP Pioneers should get some hardware...

Nonetheless, it feels like there have been more of these "upsets" than usual at this time of year.  It will be interesting to see whether this is a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or will order be restored to the D3 universe.  These upsets are making for some intriguing speculative possibilites for the rest of the season. 

I dunno... it seems to me like the upsets have been about like normal.  Buena Vista and Gustavus Adolphus have been tying 'em up early on since '02-03... ORV GAC beat ORV BV that year, #8 BV beat #2 GAC in 03-04, #19 BV beat #20 GAC in 04-05, #19 GAC beat ORV BV in 05-06, ORV BV beat ORV GAC in 06-07, and this year, GAC beat BC last year (both unranked), and unranked GAC beat #8 BV this year.  There have been a number of close games between these two squads... and this looks like a pretty good rivalry, so that's a game you can toss out, even though it is a high profile "upset" this year.

Chicago isn't as good as their #22 ranking... after 4 losses, this is fairly clear.  They may BECOME the #22 best team in the country by the end of the year... but they're not there yet.

Most years a top 5 team loses pretty early on... This year, #2 Augie lost to #1 Wash U (for once actually not an upset).



Last year, #1 Wash U lost at Calvin in the second game of the year and #5 Augustana in game 4 and #2 UWSP lost to #20 UW Whitewater on Dec 1st (rankings after poll #1... they started preseason #3 and #25)

In 06-07, #1 Virginia Wesleyan lost to unranked Averett in game #2 and #4 UW Whitewater lost game #2 to unranked Illinois Wesleyan (and then dropped their first two conference games by Dec 6th)

In 05-06, #2 UW Oshkosh lost games #1 and #3 to ORV Lawrence and ORV UWSP and #4 Puget Sound lost game #2 to NAIA DII Warner Pacific

In 04-05, #3 Hanover lost game #5 to non-D-III Brescia and #5 Rochester lost game #5 and #7 to UW Superior and Carnegie Mellon

In 03-04, #2 Gustavus Adolphus lost games #1 and #2 to Luther and Buena Vista

These are the top 5 teams, preseason.  It doesn't say anything for what happened in the first few polls for #'s 6-25.  Truthfully, the toughest poll to put out is the preseason, because the only info to go off of is coach's reports (can be over- or under-inflated), last year's results and projections on this year based on players who might have been injured last year, etc.

Right now, here are the standings for the top 25 teams:

#25 Elms 5-0
#24 Va Wes 3-2
#23 Widener 4-2
#22 Chicago 0-4
#21 Wooster 1-3
#20 Hope 2-0
#19 Lawrence 2-2
#18 IWU 2-0
#17 Elmhurst 4-0
#16 RIC 2-1
#15 Amherst 3-0
#14 Randolph Macon 1-2
#13 Centre 2-1
#12 Ursinus 3-0
#11 Gettysburg 3-0
#10 Mary Hardin-Baylor 0-3
#9 Brandeis 0-3
#8 Buena Vista 3-1
#7 UW Platteville 5-0
#6 UW Stevens Point 4-0
#5 St Thomas 3-0
#4 UW Whitewater 4-0
#3 Wheaton 3-0
#2 Augie 3-1
#1 Wash U 3-0

The top 8 are a combined 28-2... that's a 93% win percentage... pretty darn good, especially because one of the losses (and wins) is to another top 8 team.  So, really, in games not involving 2 top 8 teams, they're 27-1 (96%).

65-24 is how the top 25 has done thusfar... 73% Not terrible... but the supposed top 25 have only beaten their opponents fewer than 3 out of every 4 times.  If you take away the 3 winless teams though, it gives you 65-14 it jumps up to 82%.

Contrast this year's top 8 above with last year's... at the first regular season poll, the preseason top 8 18-4 (82%).  One win (Augie) and loss (Wash U) was to another top 8 team, so that jumps to 17-3 (85%).  I'm not going to figure out last year's entire top 25... but one thing that jumps out is that there were no teams from the preseason top 25 that went winless in the first few weeks and only 3 lost 2 or more games (#1 Wash U  3-2, #20 Bald Wally 1-3, #13 Aurora 1-3).  It's pretty easy to surmise that last year's preseason top 25 did better in the first few weeks... eh, what the heck, I'll figure it out:

#25 Whitewater 3-0
#24 Stevens 3-0
#23 Mississippi College 1-0
#22 Keene St 3-0
#21 Lewis and Clark 2-1
#20 Bald Wally 1-3
#19 UPS 5-0
#18 Elmhurst 3-0
#17 Calvin 3-1
#16 Plattsburgh St 2-0
#15 Williams 4-0
#14 Mary Hardin-Baylor 1-0
#13 Aurora 1-3
#12 Brandeis 4-0
#11 Hope 1-1
#10 Capital 4-1
#9 Rochester 5-0
#8 Wooster 2-1
#7 Brockport St 1-1
#6 Va Wes 3-0
#5 Augie 3-0
#4 Guilford 1-0
#3 UWSP 3-0
#2 Amherst 2-0
#1 Wash U 3-2

So the top 25 last year at the first reg season poll was 64-14.  So this year's top 25 has played 11 more games... and lost 10 of them.  WOW.

I think there's going to be a lot of shake-up for the next top 25!

[Greek Tragedy]

Good work PS...

How long it'd take you to write up that post?  Wife and kids must be sleeping because there's no way my wife would let me be on the computer that long! lol

[The Roop]

@Rockford 66 Beloit 61

Finding the gym was as hard as it was to make a 3 in this one. 18.2% for Beloit and 4.2% for Rockord. Turnovers were the difference as Beloit couldn't hang on to the ball. Travis Towns lead the way with 24 and 10 boards, Horton had yet another double double with 15 and 15.

Talked to Danny Towns for a bit and asked how accurately "Scrubs" portrays the lives of interns. He says "Not very much". "No way" I said "it's TV so it as to be true". Oh well, he's no Superman...................

[petemcb]

Nonetheless, it feels like there have been more of these "upsets" than usual at this time of year.  It will be interesting to see whether this is a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or will order be restored to the D3 universe.  These upsets are making for some intriguing speculative possibilites for the rest of the season. 

I dunno... it seems to me like the upsets have been about like normal.  
So the top 25 last year at the first reg season poll was 64-14.  So this year's top 25 has played 11 more games... and lost 10 of them.  WOW.

I think there's going to be a lot of shake-up for the next top 25!

So, at the end of that extensive and labor-intensive research, were you agreeing with me or disagreeing? 

[petemcb]

Chicago isn't as good as their #22 ranking... after 4 losses, this is fairly clear.  They may BECOME the #22 best team in the country by the end of the year... but they're not there yet.

Clearly they're not as good as their #22 preseason ranking.  But the consensus still seemed to be that a hisorically inept program like IIT, and the gaggle of freshmen up at Lake Forest who have been fairly regularly dissed on their own conference's board this season, would not be two of Chicago's losses as they get closer to their conference opening.

[John Gleich]

Good work PS...

How long it'd take you to write up that post?  Wife and kids must be sleeping because there's no way my wife would let me be on the computer that long! lol

Wife definitely was asleep, one of the boys was not... pretty much from when I got home from work last night at 11:30 until about 3:30.  He didn't add much additional insight to the post... though he's definitely learning!

EDIT:  I'm tired, I'm not making tons of sense right now...  the gist of the post above was that boy #1 was not asleep, ergo I was not asleep.