MBB: Midwest Conference

[John Gleich]

Nonetheless, it feels like there have been more of these "upsets" than usual at this time of year.  It will be interesting to see whether this is a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or will order be restored to the D3 universe.  These upsets are making for some intriguing speculative possibilites for the rest of the season. 

I dunno... it seems to me like the upsets have been about like normal.  
So the top 25 last year at the first reg season poll was 64-14.  So this year's top 25 has played 11 more games... and lost 10 of them.  WOW.

I think there's going to be a lot of shake-up for the next top 25!

So, at the end of that extensive and labor-intensive research, were you agreeing with me or disagreeing? 

Well... based on last year's stats to this year's, I think I agree.  Before I researched, I didn't realize that the preseason top 25 had done as poorly (well, or certain members of the group).

However, if you look at the top 8, they appear to be doing better.  Now, it might be that there are 8 more-dominant teams... and the rest are just a parity-riddled gobbledygook, whereas last year, there was a higher class of 20-25 teams... not as dominant as this year's top 8, but a class above.  Or... the top 25 voters did, in general, a better job of picking the best 25 teams (preseason) last year than this year... but they pretty much nailed the top 8.

[John Gleich]

Chicago isn't as good as their #22 ranking... after 4 losses, this is fairly clear.  They may BECOME the #22 best team in the country by the end of the year... but they're not there yet.

Clearly they're not as good as their #22 preseason ranking.  But the consensus still seemed to be that a historically inept program like IIT, and the gaggle of freshmen up at Lake Forest who have been fairly regularly dissed on their own conference's board this season, would not be two of Chicago's losses as they get closer to their conference opening.

That could very well underscore the distance from being the #22 team in the country.

Looking at the stats from LAST YEAR to THIS YEAR there are a few things that jump out to me.  There's a 12% shooting percentage swing... U of C is shooting 6% worse and their opponents are shooting 6% better than last year... and it is equating to a 14 point swing on the scoreboard (outscoring opponents by 6 last year to being outscored by 8 this year).  The Maroons are actually rebounding better in the early going this year, but the assist to TO ratio has gone from 1.4 to 1.  And finally, the TO's are up from 11.7 to 14.75 per game

These all can tie in together... if my team doesn't make the easy buckets, the shooting percentage will go down and the number of assists will go down and could allow for more secondary break opportunities (leading to higher opponent shooting percentage).  If our turnovers are up, then it provides for more primary break opportunities (again, leading to higher opponent shooting percentage).  Both of those also lead to fewer points for me and more points for my opponent. 

If my team's defense is bad, then my opponents will get more open looks and make more shots, leading to fewer secondary break opportunities for my team (those break opportunities which could lead to a higher shooting percentage for my team and the defense leading to lower shooting percentage for my opponent). 

This part is easy to do... you look at two stat sheets, see what the difference is, and you say what could be improved if those numbers improved.  It doesn't, however, tell you how to make those numbers better.

I think that Chicago needs to bear down and play some defense.  Their opponents are shooting 50%.  Makin' one out of every two they throw up there.  Solidify this defense... build it from the basket out and challenge each individual player to defend within the system.  The system worked last year... unless they've gotten away from what worked, it should work this year as well.

This stat doesn't make any sense... last year opponents were shooting 34% from 3 and this year they're shooting 38%... with the 3 pt line a foot farther away.  Now, that is more area to defend... and that might make it tougher to get to shooters, but against Augustana, they held the Vikings to 1/7 from 3.  In Augie's other 3 games, they have shot 19/42.  Now, these games are not all in a bubble... Augie may simply have been off on this night, the same way that Edgewood appeared to be on in the first game of the year... but maybe U of C CAUSED Augie to shoot poorly.

And finally, look at the scoring of these four games.  101-93, 70-68, 58-57, 73-54.  Looks like Chicago is playing to their opponents pace instead of dictating how the pace goes.

For me, it always goes back to the defense.  You can thank Coach Bennett for that... but we took pride in our defense and we built from there.  Chicago needs to do the same.

[pgkevin]

Chicago isn't as good as their #22 ranking... after 4 losses, this is fairly clear.  They may BECOME the #22 best team in the country by the end of the year... but they're not there yet.

Clearly they're not as good as their #22 preseason ranking.  But the consensus still seemed to be that a hisorically inept program like IIT, and the gaggle of freshmen up at Lake Forest who have been fairly regularly dissed on their own conference's board this season, would not be two of Chicago's losses as they get closer to their conference opening.

Maybe those Lake Forest freshmen are starting to pull it together.
Results have gotten better each time since their opening game throttling at the hands of Benedictine.
A one point loss to Lakeland, followed by the drubbing of Chicago.  You would think that the result of that game against Chicago would stop that regular dissing of the team instead of somehow actually increasing the amount of dissing...

[Gregory Sager]

That was two mighty fine bouts of statistical analysis within the past 24 hours, PS. Kudos!

[petemcb]

Chicago isn't as good as their #22 ranking... after 4 losses, this is fairly clear.  They may BECOME the #22 best team in the country by the end of the year... but they're not there yet.

Clearly they're not as good as their #22 preseason ranking.  But the consensus still seemed to be that a hisorically inept program like IIT, and the gaggle of freshmen up at Lake Forest who have been fairly regularly dissed on their own conference's board this season, would not be two of Chicago's losses as they get closer to their conference opening.

Maybe those Lake Forest freshmen are starting to pull it together.
Results have gotten better each time since their opening game throttling at the hands of Benedictine.
A one point loss to Lakeland, followed by the drubbing of Chicago.  You would think that the result of that game against Chicago would stop that regular dissing of the team instead of somehow actually increasing the amount of dissing...

pgkevin, who was it that increased the dissing?  I like Lake Forest.  I've gone to several of their games each season for the last few years.  I like their coach.  "Gaggle" is not a diss.  Mentioning the fact that others on this board were not expecting much out of Lake Forest this season as well as their own conference pre-season poll is all that has referenced on the board.  Where's the additional diss going on here?

[PC]

Note to self... the middle aged CCIW fans take this way more seriously than most... and the WIAC fans must be accountants.

[pgkevin]

Chicago isn't as good as their #22 ranking... after 4 losses, this is fairly clear.  They may BECOME the #22 best team in the country by the end of the year... but they're not there yet.

Clearly they're not as good as their #22 preseason ranking.  But the consensus still seemed to be that a hisorically inept program like IIT, and the gaggle of freshmen up at Lake Forest who have been fairly regularly dissed on their own conference's board this season, would not be two of Chicago's losses as they get closer to their conference opening.

Maybe those Lake Forest freshmen are starting to pull it together.
Results have gotten better each time since their opening game throttling at the hands of Benedictine.
A one point loss to Lakeland, followed by the drubbing of Chicago.  You would think that the result of that game against Chicago would stop that regular dissing of the team instead of somehow actually increasing the amount of dissing...

pgkevin, who was it that increased the dissing?  I like Lake Forest.  I've gone to several of their games each season for the last few years.  I like their coach.  "Gaggle" is not a diss.  Mentioning the fact that others on this board were not expecting much out of Lake Forest this season as well as their own conference pre-season poll is all that has referenced on the board.  Where's the additional diss going on here?

I was just too lazy to go back and quote the actual insults so I just found the one that talked about how the insults were occuring, definetly wasn't calling you out pete, but I believe people like Scots4 used phrases like very poor and over in the CCIW chat there was talk about the game as well.  Not mad about it or anthing like that, just was trying to point out that there are always two sides to every story so even if Chicago played badly LAke Forest most likely also played well.

[Scots4]

Yes, I believe Lake Forest is very poor.

[Pat Coleman]

Just a note, too, that this season started a week earlier but we're not issuing a Week 1 poll any earlier. In previous years Chicago would not be No. 22 anymore.

[pgkevin]

Yes, I believe Lake Forest is very poor.

Based on what?  Its probably too early after 3 games to make any judgements either way

[Greek Tragedy]

Yes, I believe Lake Forest is very poor.

Wikipedia has their endowment at $76,700,000.  They aren't that poor.

On the other hand, Lawrence's is around $200 million.  So, maybe they are.

[petemcb]

Note to self... the middle aged CCIW fans take this way more seriously than most... and the WIAC fans must be accountants.

Yes, I believe Lake Forest is very poor.

Wikipedia has their endowment at $76,700,000.  They aren't that poor.

On the other hand, Lawrence's is around $200 million.  So, maybe they are.

OldSchool, you must be one of those "WIAC accountants" I've been hearing about lately.  Hope you had a "serious" Thanksgiving.

"Seriously",

A Middle-aged CCIW Fan

[Greek Tragedy]

Hard to show my dry humor without a bunch of 

Should've put those in! lol :-)

[Gregory Sager]

Note to self... the middle aged CCIW fans take this way more seriously than most... and the WIAC fans must be accountants.

Yes, I believe Lake Forest is very poor.

Wikipedia has their endowment at $76,700,000.  They aren't that poor.

On the other hand, Lawrence's is around $200 million.  So, maybe they are.

OldSchool, you must be one of those "WIAC accountants" I've been hearing about lately.  Hope you had a "serious" Thanksgiving.

"Seriously",

A Middle-aged CCIW Fan

You shouldn't have been reading that, Pete! That was PC's note to himself!

[John Gleich]

You shouldn't have been reading that, Pete! That was PC's note to himself!

Hehe... so sorry we intruded!