FB: USA South Athletic Conference

[HansenRatings]

Sounds about right. That's how I would vote if we were doing a pre-season poll other than adding Brevard between LaGrange and Greensboro.
Little surprised at the 22 point difference between NCWC and Averett though. They're in the "right" spots, but I think they're a little closer to one another.

Brevard! Forgot about them. I'll add them to the mix and see how it shakes out.

As for NC Wesleyan and Averett, a lot of it has to do with where they started last season, and Averett performing poorly at the end of the season (and hence, their ratings from 2+ years ago that are built into the preseason ratings). NC Wesleyan has been persistently slightly better than Averett over that time span, which works out to a relatively large difference for this preseason. Here's their ratings over the last 4 seasons:

[HansenRatings]

Updated to include Brevard:

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference
Huntingdon	0.8696	8.7-1.3	6.9-1.1
Maryville	0.7795	7.6-2.4	5.4-1.6
NC Wesleyan	0.6646	5.9-4.1	5.2-2.8
Brevard	0.6337	5.3-2.7	4.7-2.3
Averett	0.4437	4.3-5.7	3.8-4.2
Ferrum	0.3952	3.6-5.4	3.3-4.7
Methodist	0.3819	3.7-5.3	3.4-4.6
LaGrange	0.2142	2.6-7.4	2.0-6.0
Greensboro	0.0229	0.8-8.2	0.3-7.7

My methodology for incorporating teams from different divisions isn't the best. I basically just take a team's ratings from Massey the previous 4 season and adjust them to be on the same scale as my system. It's missed pretty big recently (NWU was predicted to finish last in the IIAC last year, and they were nearly 0.500, and McMurry was supposed to be the second-best team in the ASC in 2015, and... well... they finished below 0.500), but did pretty well back in the mid-aughts (Trine, Westminster Pa, others). I think the trend is that my method overrates former DII schools, and it underrates NAIA schools. There's obviously something very different about a team going from DII to DIII than from NAIA to DIII ($$$$$$), so maybe the impact of roster turnover hits DII schools harder than NAIA? I dunno. Maybe I'll check it out more over the summer.

[jknezek]

Well, Brevard lost 28-14 on the road to E&H last year and beat Apprentice 38-7 at home (their only win). Methodist eeked past NNA, and Greensboro lost to them pretty badly, so you have some comparison that would put your positioning of Brevard, based on recent historical results, in the right area. On the other hand, E&H did squeak past Ferrum, and the Wasps handled Brevard easily, so that is something to consider. Finally, E&H lost by a score to M'Ville, lending credence to not moving Brevard up any higher.

I think you could argue Brevard is a spot or 2 too high, but given the available data I wouldn't argue very much.

[HansenRatings]

Well, Brevard lost 28-14 on the road to E&H last year and beat Apprentice 38-7 at home (their only win). Methodist eeked past NNA, and Greensboro lost to them pretty badly, so you have some comparison that would put your positioning of Brevard, based on recent historical results, in the right area. On the other hand, E&H did squeak past Ferrum, and the Wasps handled Brevard easily, so that is something to consider. Finally, E&H lost by a score to M'Ville, lending credence to not moving Brevard up any higher.

I think you could argue Brevard is a spot or 2 too high, but given the available data I wouldn't argue very much.

Yeah, I was looking at those two results too for some bearing against DIII competition. I would say that they're probably in the right spot here, but they're probably closer to a rating of 0.500 than 0.650, which is about the difference between a #95 national ranking and a #125 national ranking. Would probably decrease their win probability by a cumulative 1.0-0.5 games over the course of a 10-game schedule.

[Scots13]

After further thought, Brevard might not be an automatic basement in the USAC  . I guess time will tell how Brevard deals with the move down a division and the loss of scholarship money and bringing in a new coach.

Thank you Hansen for the chance to discuss the upcoming season in June. Your time and talents are appreciated.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Goodbye Ferrum: http://www.d3sports.com/notables/2017/06/odac-expands-to-add-ferrum

[Scots13]

There used to be Averett, CNU, Ferrum, Shenadoah as VA football members and now we're down to just Averett. I guess that's why we're the USA South and not the USA Mid-Atlantic.

Happy to see they have a new home and both conferences get back to 8 football members.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Not many people consider Virginia the Mid-Atlantic... but okay.

[Scots13]

We must've  studied different textbooks in grade school, but I won't hold it against you.

[HansenRatings]

[CNU85]

Born and raised in Va...always thought we were in mid-atlantic

[jknezek]

Born and raised in Va...always thought we were in mid-atlantic

I think North Va mostly considers itself Mid-Atlantic. I think southern Virginia, and especially SW Virginia, considers itself Deep South.

[CNU85]

Born and raised in Va...always thought we were in mid-atlantic

I think North Va mostly considers itself Mid-Atlantic. I think southern Virginia, and especially SW Virginia, considers itself Deep South.

Could be....I'm in SE......perhaps the southern roots and history still have some folks thinking that way. I just look at it geographically. Heck, I would even consider NC as mid atlantic...but the folks in Charlotte probably don't think that at all. 

[jknezek]

Born and raised in Va...always thought we were in mid-atlantic

I think North Va mostly considers itself Mid-Atlantic. I think southern Virginia, and especially SW Virginia, considers itself Deep South.

Could be....I'm in SE......perhaps the southern roots and history still have some folks thinking that way. I just look at it geographically. Heck, I would even consider NC as mid atlantic...but the folks in Charlotte probably don't think that at all.

Actually the people in Charlotte probably would be closer to that thinking than the folks outside Charlotte. Capitol city or not, the huge banking and insurance presence means a whole lot of NYC area folks live in the Charlotte area. Part of the issue with considering yourself Mid-Atlantic is severing ties to the Confederacy, and there's a lot of tradition and pride in old Southern families for their role in The War of Northern Aggression. I live in AL but grew up in NJ before school at W&L. I've suffered the culture shock and paid the price for questioning how it can be "The War of Northern Aggression" when the Rebels fired the first shots.

[Scots13]

Virginia is like a venn diagram of sorts when it comes to its regional identity. When contrasting the whole of the US, it's a southern state; when contrasting the East Coast and Deep South, it's Mid Atlantic.

But to jk's point, much of modern VA has more in common with MD and PA than it does with GA, AL, MS, etc. Remember that VA for a short time was on the fence about secession, even shot down the idea at one point (although it didn't take long for the change of heart)...Richmond was strategically located in the 1860's more so than was Montgomery. Loyalty was to the states and not the Union or the Confederacy. Lee, Jackson, Stuart, et al. had no choice but to join the CSA. I dare say Lee couldn't give a rat's a$$ about a MS or AL plantation owner. But that's just my thought.