FB: USA South Athletic Conference

[hasanova]

Thanks LLama
Great Info.  I think your right that USAC has the edge at this moment, But the ODAC has the history.  Also you have to take into account the fact that E&H had laid a big goose egg until last week.  Who would have ever seen that coming! That really skews the rankings you just computed.  Also the USAC has 3 recently new teams.  They really should have the weaker div.  I do emember the day when we would take care of business at E&H, BC, RMC, even Salisbury and Wesley, but I am not sure it is a slam dunk anymore.  FC now has to share the talent pool w/ CNU and SU.

Well, the talent pool is getting thinner all over the Mid-Atlantic region.  I count 27 colleges and universities in NC now playing 4-year football and a few more in southern Virginia that are taking players we used to recruit.  I also hear there are a few more like Lees-McRae and Brevard that may jump back into the fray plus several others such as High Point University that are considering teams again after absences of over a half century.  Looks to me as though you either have to expand your recruiting base or settle for less talented players ... 

[cnu85]

I think the ODAC has the edge. What other conference has fans who can detect when their conference and alcohol are mentioned on other conference's boards? Llama didn't just lurk into the board and read the drunk BC fans comment......he sensed it!!!

[Llamaguy]

Narch,
You are correct, higher numbers are better. Laz takes into account winning point spread, strength of schedule, and results. As for the GC/GCQ game, remember both teams had zero wins at that point. GCQ is much better now and has won 3 of 4 so don't know that it would be an equal comapison game.

85,
Umm Beer, GOOD! Hell I had security pull me over at a tailgate earlier this year because they thought my stainless steel pull behind cooker was a 60 gallon keg of beer!

[patcummings]

By the way, my column this week will outline the tiebreakers in the USAC if CNU/Meth/Fer end up with 1 conference loss.

[Llamaguy]

Here is a Massey rating comparison also. It is a little harder to decipher but look under ratings and a lower negative number is better. They have the USASAC ahead of the ODAC.

20 USA South         8      10  12     -0.844  -1.28   0.00   0.00  0.5900

   Conference       #Tms    W   L      Rating    Power    Off    Def  Parity

21 Old Dominion AC  7     10  15    -0.852   -1.29   0.00   0.00  0.6527


Also Born Power does a rating as well: (higher is better)

School                                               Rating
BRIDGEWATER-VA.                                31.2
CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY                          13.1
EMORY & HENRY                                     6.2
GUILFORD                                            13.2
HAMPDEN-SYDNEY                                33.3
RANDOLPH-MACON                                11.6
WASHINGTON & LEE                              22.0
                                                                  Avg= 18.66


School                                               Rating
AVERETT COLLEGE                                15.6
CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT                        26.2
FERRUM COLLEGE                                 30.9
GREENBORO COLLEGE                            -1.9
MARYVILLE COLLEGE                               5.1
METHODIST COLLEGE                            19.9
SHENANDOAH COLLEGE                           2.8
WESLEYAN-NORTH CAROLINA                   7.8
                                                                     Avg= 13.30

A Ferrum / Bridgewater match-up would have BC as a 0.30 point favorite.

[narch]

llama - it's clear to me that massey is the more reliable source of the 3 that you've sited 

no surprise here, but roncketti is named usasac offensive potw, but congrats also to max pope for being named usasac defensive potw...4.5 tfl on the week to go with 14 total tackles (5 solo, 9 assisted)...not bad

both (and all of their teammates) will need to come to play with the same intensity they had on that last drive for an entire game this week...it's greensboro week and that means it's time to go to work on the pride - they are probably going to be extra pumped...in-state rivalry (if you can call it that...the pride has to start winning for me to call that a rivalry), chance to spoil a possible conference championship for the monarchs, coming off a complete waxing by fc...if gc doesn't play the monarchs tough this week, i'll be shocked - any team that throws the ball around 35-40 times a game scares me - the monarchs just need to play with a sense of urgency from the opening kick

GO MONARCHS!!!
go bishops!    go captains!

[cnu85]

Llama,

you only got pulled aside b/c security was wondering why you were downsizing the keg to 60 gal.

[AdmiralPapi]

And I thought it was just because they were thirsty! 8)

[cnufan]

On the CNU moving up to D2 subject, that will NEVER happen. The travel budget would be thru the ROOF. 1-AA would be the only option in my opinion, join the CAA (assuming they dont expand anymore or make it into two divisions, if they dont have that already) would be the easiest option.

[Three Sails]

Thanks for the stats Llama - good stuff!

Don't understand that Born Power rating - what's the critical factor there?  How does Greensboro get a minus rating?  Also, don't see Methodist that far behind Ferrum and CNU after the Monarchs close loss on the road to FC and win over CNU.  Strength of schedule perhaps?  Is that why CNU (3 losses) is so close in this rating to FC with 0 losses?

[Llamaguy]

Thanks for the stats Llama - good stuff!

Don't understand that Born Power rating - what's the critical factor there?  How does Greensboro get a minus rating?  Also, don't see Methodist that far behind Ferrum and CNU after the Monarchs close loss on the road to FC and win over CNU.  Strength of schedule perhaps?  Is that why CNU (3 losses) is so close in this rating to FC with 0 losses?

Thats right Sails. It takes into account score, sos, etc. Not sure about the negative rating but to calculate the spread of a game just subtract the two ratings and that gives you Born's prediction of who should win and by how much. These figures are updated weekly.

[tcheadhunter]

Ferrum is ranked #23 on the latest coaches poll.   See article below.

http://www.d3football.com/notables.php

[Three Sails]

Pat Cummings - enjoy your regional update each week.  Thanks for putting this together.  Question about your comment regarding the 3rd tiebreaker in USAC.  Does this tiebreaker take non-conference games into consideration?  You mentioned that the only common opponents were in conference but:

CNU & Methodist both played Salisbury (both lost)
CNU & Ferrum both played Chowan (both won)  - (does a non d3 count?)
Methodist & Ferrum both played E&H (both won)
Methodist & Ferrum both played Guilford (both won)

Since there is no advantage for any of the three teams in these results - this is moot in terms of determining a tiebreaker this season.  But just wondering how this might play out if just one non-conference result above was different? 

[cnufan]

I think that means all three need to have played the same team.  And thats a wash cause none of them played the same team amongst all three.  I still think the coin toss sucks, but what else can you have to break a tie??  Points allowed?? Then everyone would go for the blow out win and run the score up. Who knows.

[abnrgr]

Papi
Just walked in the door this PM.
I coached at HHS 1997-2001. Wilbur Sasser was head coach. He coached me when I was the Captian of the 75 team. He coached my son too. He was feeling old then