BB: USAC: USA South Athletic Conference

narch · April 18, 2006, 11:21:28 PM

ralph...working on regional records for those teams right now...i'll have regional opp winning % in the next few days, as well

monarchs win 6-0 vs. hsc today...they needed that - varnell went 5 giving up just 2 hits (but 3 walks)...brandt struck out 3 in 1 ip (getting out of a bases loaded, no out jam that he created by giving up 2 hits and a walk) - kelly, denning and cates all pitched an inning and gave up just one total hit (hsc was held to 5 hits on the game) - the bigger story is that the monarchs hit TWO hr's...they had hit 2 all season prior to today...the ball was really flying out of shelley field

2 big ones vs. #9/#2 emory this weekend, then 2 vs. #4/#1 salisbury the next weekend...need AT LEAST splits, but i'd really like 4-0

hasanova · April 19, 2006, 09:09:09 AM

Ferrum came from being down 3-0 to beat Guilford 5-3 in Martinsville last night (4/18), so that helps their Pool C hopes.

Ralph Turner · April 19, 2006, 09:29:35 AM

Quote from: narch on April 18, 2006, 11:21:28 PM
ralph...working on regional records for those teams right now...i'll have regional opp winning % in the next few days, as well

monarchs win 6-0 vs. hsc today...they needed that - varnell went 5 giving up just 2 hits (but 3 walks)...brandt struck out 3 in 1 ip (getting out of a bases loaded, no out jam that he created by giving up 2 hits and a walk) - kelly, denning and cates all pitched an inning and gave up just one total hit (hsc was held to 5 hits on the game) - the bigger story is that the monarchs hit TWO hr's...they had hit 2 all season prior to today...the ball was really flying out of shelley field

2 big ones vs. #9/#2 emory this weekend, then 2 vs. #4/#1 salisbury the next weekend...need AT LEAST splits, but i'd really like 4-0

Narch, thanks!

Please list the in-region outcomes if you have time, in the meantime!

narch · April 20, 2006, 02:39:38 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 19, 2006, 09:29:35 AMPlease list the in-region outcomes if you have time, in the meantime!

the regional records above are current through yesterday

i've also analyzed regional opponent winning % for the 3 teams:

mc
21-11 vs. teams that are currently .579 (319-232-2)
6 remaining games against teams who are currently .779
mc is 5-0 vs. sub .500 teams and will not play another sub .500 team

fc
25-11 vs. teams that are currently .554 (300-242-1)
3 remaining games against teams who are currently .354
fc is currently 7-2 vs. sub .500 teams and plays 3 more games against sub .500 teams

gc
20-13 vs. teams that are currently .563 (.267-207-2)
1 remaining game against emory, currently 29-6 (.828)
gc is currently 6-0 vs. sub .500 teams

i think that RIGHT NOW, ferrum looks slightly more attractive because of the 4 additional wins vs. mc and 5 additional wins vs. gc - fc is likely to win 3 more, making them 28-11 in region, and that will be tough to keep home - i still contend that if the monarchs go 4-2 against emory, salisbury and york, they should be the pick among these teams...3-3 MIGHT do it, too - what the usasac really has to hope for is that b'water can win the odac tourney...bc clearly has an edge over any of the usasac schools because of the record (even though they've played far inferior competition) and all of these teams (and probably su and cnu) are better than the next best odac team, in my opinion

narch · April 23, 2006, 09:49:20 PM

the monarchs lose 2 to emory, 13-3 and 14-11...gotta sweep ssu and york to have any shot

Ralph Turner · April 24, 2006, 12:17:37 AM

narch, sorry to see the losses to Emory today. A DH sweep would have helped with the Pool C situation.

When the Regional Rankings come out, I will treat them the way that we treated the Pool C bids in Men's Hoops. I will assume the highest ranked team in each region is getting the Pool A from their conference and then project the Pool B and Pool C bids.

http://www.d3sports.com/post/index.php?topic=4232.596

narch · May 02, 2006, 02:28:02 PM

vwc winning the odac hurt the monarchs as well

ssu is 36-5 and i suspect will be highly ranked in the region (i guess we'll know on thursday, right?)

york is 24-12-1

4 wins would push the monarchs to 28-15 overall and 25-13 in the region against a strong regional schedule, but i don't think it will be enough, even with added pool c bids

BigPoppa · May 02, 2006, 07:00:09 PM

I have a feeling that Methodist will be left out. There are some great teams this year. That many losses will definitely hurt them.

narch · May 03, 2006, 02:17:36 PM

poppa - i think you're right...i've been crunching numbers trying to calculate qowi for each of the usasac hopefuls, and it looks like the best mc can do is 8.85 - ferrum is at 8.9 - haven't gotten around to gc yet, but i suspect they're similar to mc...maybe a little higher because of the win vs. emory...that's a 13 point win

interestingly, the monarchs played the toughest overall schedule of the 3 with a .596 current opp winning % (with ssu and ycp included it's actually .614, but they haven't played those teams yet) compared to .547 for ferrum and .578 for gc, whose seasons are both finished...it was set up well for a pool c bid, i just don't think they won enough games - i'll try to calculate qowi for b'water, as well

BigPoppa · May 03, 2006, 02:29:56 PM

Quote from: narch on May 03, 2006, 02:17:36 PM
poppa - i think you're right...i've been crunching numbers trying to calculate qowi for each of the usasac hopefuls, and it looks like the best mc can do is 8.7 - ferrum is at 8.9 - haven't gotten around to gc yet, but i suspect they're similar to mc...maybe a little higher because of the win vs. emory...that's a 13 point win

interestingly, the monarchs played the toughest overall schedule of the 3 with a .590 current opp winning % (with ssu and ycp included it's actually .610, but they haven't played those teams yet) compared to .547 for ferrum and .578 for gc, whose seasons are both finished...it was set up well for a pool c bid, i just don't think they won enough games - i'll try to calculate qowi for b'water, as well

How do you actually calculate the QOWI? I would be interested in doing it for a few other teams as well.

narch · May 03, 2006, 03:15:53 PM

from the ncaa handbook (linked on the regional rankings page by ralph...thanks!)

Selection Criteria – for ranking and selection
The following Primary Criteria (not in priority order) will be reviewed:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Strength-of-schedule index –only contests versus regional competition
Win on the road versus a team at or above .667—14 points
Win at home versus a team at or above .667—13points
Win on the road versus a team at or above .500, but below .667—12 points
Win at home versus a team at or above .500, but below .667—11 points
Win on the road versus a team at or above .333, but below .500—10 points
Win at home versus a team at or above .333, but below .500—9 points
Win on the road versus a team below .333—8 points
Win at home versus a team below .333—7 points
Loss on the road versus a team at or above .667—7 points
Loss at home versus a team at or above .667—6 points
Loss on the road versus a team at or above .500, but below .667—5 points
Loss at home versus a team at or above .500, but below .667—4 points
Loss on the road versus a team at or above .333, but below .500—3 points
Loss at home versus a team at or above .333, but below .500—2 points
Loss on the road versus a team below .333—1 point
Loss at home versus a team below .333—0 points
• Points for tied contests are calculated by taking the points which would have been
awarded with a win, adding the points which would have been awarded with a loss and
dividing by two

i actually mis-calculated mc...they're currently at 8.59 and COULD go to 9.00 with 4 wins...i'll recalculate for ferrum and gc and b'water sometime this week

i've got a spreadsheet that i'll email you

BigPoppa · May 03, 2006, 03:56:50 PM

narch... that would be great. I appreciate it.

narch · May 03, 2006, 10:13:46 PM

poppa - you've got email

here is what i've found on qowi so far

mc - 8.639 qowi - 22-14 regional record
2-7 vs. teams above .667
12-7 vs. teams .500-.666
4-0 vs. teams .333 - .499
4-0 vs. teams 0-.332
overall opp win % - .614

(updated through 5-5-06)

fc - 8.588 qowi - 28-11-1 regional record
1-0-1 vs. teams above .667
17-7 vs. teams .500-.666
5-3 vs. teams .333-.499
5-1 vs. teams 0-.332
overall opp win % - .547

gc - 8.324 qowi - 21-13 regional record
2-4 vs. teams above .667
11-7 vs. teams .500-.666
3-2 vs. teams .333-.499
5-0 vs. teams 0-.332
overall opp win % - .578

b'water - 9.449 qowi - 29-10-1 regional record
1-3-1 vs. teams above .667
20-5 vs. teams .500-.666
3-1 vs. teams .333-.499
5-1 vs. teams 0-.332
overall opp win % - .554

you can see why i think b'water is a lock, with that qowi - unfortunately for qowi a .501 team is the same as a .666 team, which is a bit flawed and explains (in part) why b'water's opp win % is so much lower than mc's, but the qowi is so much higher - b'water does have two UGLY losses...a home loss to roanoke and a home loss to ehc, but they don't pull that qowi down enough

mc and ferrum are pretty much identical in qowi, so they will look at head-to-head (fc 2-1) and overall regional win % (fc wins), meaning the monarchs have little chance

BigPoppa · May 04, 2006, 02:51:22 PM

narch/Ralph... how are games at nuetral sites counted in the QOWI?

narch · May 04, 2006, 02:52:14 PM

road games for both teams, i think