BB: USAC: USA South Athletic Conference

[forheavendial4999]

CNU can potentially get into regionals without making a trip to AL to play Huntingdon. Also, Huntingdon would never in there right mind meet CNU at a neutral field. What do they have to gain by doing so? Nothing. Piedmont does have a very nice field though.

Some teams just like to play the amount of baseball they can play. Plus, Huntingdon is gonna be in no matter what so they don't have anything to lose either. They went to Ohio already this year so they don't mind traveling. But I would say the onus is on CNU...they need the game. Sub .700 percentage and a highly mediocre SOS = out.

It's not like Bridgewater has a schedule loaded with tough out of conference opposition either (see Messiah, Juniata, Ferrum, etc.). BC's SOS comes in an 143, while CNU's comes in at 182.

That's not a small difference, but the biggest difference is Bridgewater won a lot more games against their somewhat better schedule. If CNU had gone 31-9, there wouldn't be a question right now. But they didn't.

BC's rankings in the new regional rankings, as well as national rankings, do not include their 10th and 11th loss of the season (double dipped by R-MC in ODAC Title Game).

I'm by no means trying to 'hate' on BC. They had a wonderful season. Heck, I live 20 minutes from their field. I simply wanted to point out that writing off CNU as an at large bid, and stating they are 'not deserving', is false.

I made a list of 49 Pool C candidates based on recent history of at-large picks (I since deleted it because people on the thread were being jackasses and so they can have it). CNU wasn't on it. To get a Pool C where their SOS is, you pretty much have to be close to 80% wins. Being in the West region seems to help as well, for some reason.

At least people can disagree here without being accused of being bi-polar or biased. I appreciate that.

[PNeal7]

Yes, it is nice to see people just disagree, without it getting 'ugly.'

I believe part of what helped BC have a higher SOS is their conference. The USAS was relatively down this year, with only 3 teams having a winning % over .500. CNU, Averett (24-16), and Methodist (24-20). Whereas the ODAC had 7 teams with a winning % over .500 (BC, R-MC, SU, W&L, Guilford, Lynchburg, H-SC). I'm just making a general statement with that, not trying to continue the debate or prove any point. It generally seems like the ODAC was much stronger than the USAS this year.

[forheavendial4999]

Yes, it is nice to see people just disagree, without it getting 'ugly.'

I believe part of what helped BC have a higher SOS is their conference. The USAS was relatively down this year, with only 3 teams having a winning % over .500. CNU, Averett (24-16), and Methodist (24-20). Whereas the ODAC had 7 teams with a winning % over .500 (BC, R-MC, SU, W&L, Guilford, Lynchburg, H-SC). I'm just making a general statement with that, not trying to continue the debate or prove any point. It generally seems like the ODAC was much stronger than the USAS this year.

Well, I remember when the USAS went to the 2 game series and why...and it was because the ODAC teams had an advantage on them pitching-wise because they were playing 2-gamers. I was surprised to see the USAS go back, even though it was making for 12 game conference schedules. It's harder to sweep 3 games than 2, obviously.

But yeah, the records for most of the USAS were pretty humdrum. CNU just needed to win more games in the league to set themselves up.

[D-BAT]

Say what you want but it is the "formula" that will determine who gets the at-large bid(s).

[rolln2]

What I do not understand is that the 1 game CNU is missing is a rain out against Salisbury. Why not just play it?

If I am correct you only get 19 total weeks of baseball in DIII excluding the regional and CWS. If CNU used their 4 weeks in the fall and started practice where they are now at 15 weeks in the spring.  Then they cannot play anymore games.  So they cannot make up any games at this point.

[PNeal7]

Yes, rolln, you are correct. CNU is out of weeks, so they could not schedule another game if they'd like to.

[forheavendial4999]

Fair enough. Didn't know they used weeks in the fall. I stand corrected on playing the extra game, though it could have been done previously.

[narch]

as an insider looking out, i don't think cnu has a shot to get a bid...low sos and regional win % have doomed them

if they somehow move ahead of bridgewater in the final regional rankings because bridgewater has two losses, cnu has an OUTSIDE shot, but as things stand right now, they're out

trust me, i've seen mu in much better condition from a sos and regional win % standpoint and get left out - if historical trends hold true, the capts. will be out, as well

what we are witnessing is a direct result of the usasac going to 3 game weekends - not only do those additional games prohibit usasac teams from playing as many strong weekday ooc opponents, but when teams do play those opponents, their pitching staff is shorter, perhaps causing usasac schools to lose more ooc contests than normal

those additional ooc losses, combined with more games against tough conference competition have weakened (perhaps artificially) the sos numbers for usasac teams, where a 2-1 weekend is considered a good weekend, but can hurt your regional win% and sos - i'm sure there are other strong conferences that have 3 game weekends, but i am of the opinion that usasac baseball this season was better than it looks on paper, in large part because of this change

[D-BAT]

Strength of schedule

The NCAA Division III postseason selection committee determines strength of schedule using opponents' winning percentage and opponents' opponents' winning percentage. A team's SOS is two-thirds opponents' winning percentage (OWP) and one-third opponents' opponents' winning percentage (OOWP).

Those numbers follow, calculated by PrestoSports.

We've sorted these teams by their strength of schedule. This is only part of the process used to determine who will get selected to the NCAA Tournament.

Records and winning percentage are based on in-region games only. OWP: Opponents' winning percentage. OOWP: Opponents' opponents' winning percentage. SOS: two-thirds OWP and one-third OOWP.

                                Reg'l       Reg'l   OWP(Rank)  OOWP   NCAA
                                Rec         Win%

145 Bridgewater    30-6       .833   .5139 (166)   .5254    0.518

180 Shenandoah   24-10     .706   .5037 (200)   .5244    0.511

190 CNU             27-12-1     .688   .5081 (184)   .5091    0.508

[rolln2]

Strength of scheduleThere is no doubt Bridgewater has a better regional record. But if you look at both teams out of conference in region records they are very close.  Bridgewater is 8-3 and CNU is 8-4.  25 of Bridgewaters' 36 games in region are from ODAC competition. CNU has 27 of 42 games against USAS competition. Bridgewater had a fantastic season against mostly ODAC competition this year. They played 4 games vs USAS whereas, CNU played 9 games vs ODAC competition.

The NCAA Division III postseason selection committee determines strength of schedule using opponents' winning percentage and opponents' opponents' winning percentage. A team's SOS is two-thirds opponents' winning percentage (OWP) and one-third opponents' opponents' winning percentage (OOWP).

Those numbers follow, calculated by PrestoSports.

We've sorted these teams by their strength of schedule. This is only part of the process used to determine who will get selected to the NCAA Tournament.

Records and winning percentage are based on in-region games only. OWP: Opponents' winning percentage. OOWP: Opponents' opponents' winning percentage. SOS: two-thirds OWP and one-third OOWP.

                                Reg'l       Reg'l   OWP(Rank)  OOWP   NCAA
                                Rec         Win%

145 Bridgewater    30-6       .833   .5139 (166)   .5254    0.518

180 Shenandoah   24-10     .706   .5037 (200)   .5244    0.511

190 CNU             27-12-1     .688   .5081 (184)   .5091    0.508

[rolln2]

Looks like the CNU/Bridgewater discussion is over as Bridgewater wins 2 games today vs Wesley to improve to 33-11.  CNU has to hope all the other tourney one seeds win around the nation.  If some of the others lose they go to pool C w/ CNU.

[forheavendial4999]

Looks like the CNU/Bridgewater discussion is over as Bridgewater wins 2 games today vs Wesley to improve to 33-11.  CNU has to hope all the other tourney one seeds win around the nation.  If some of the others lose they go to pool C w/ CNU.

That's already not going well. Kean is out in the NJAC tournament. Not that CNU has a real chance.

[D-BAT]

CNU does not deserve a bid. I dont care that they are ranked 24th. They shouldnt be. Look at some of there losses. and a tie to HSU. Although i would say they get a bid over SU. SU has always played a weak schedule.

That's nonsense, SU's SOS is ranked 180 vs. CNU's 190.

Look at the numbers, one could say that SU has a slight edge over CNU but if the #1 seeds continue to get knocked out of their tourney's, then it's a moot point as both CNU and SU will be home for NCAA's.

[D-BAT]

South Region Rankings ... May 2nd:

1   Huntingdon        28-8   30-9
2   Salisbury            25-4   30-7
3   Millsaps             29-8   32-11
4   Bridgewater       30-4   31-9
5   CNU                   27-12-1   29-12-1
6   Frostburg           21-12   23-14


D3Baseball's SOS and rest of the numbers as of May 5th:

  55 Huntingdon        28-8   .778   .5598 (49)   .5238    0.548

  85 Salisbury            25-4   .862   .5306 (114)   .5436    0.535

114 Frostburg          23-13   .639   .5242 (129)   .5324    0.527

132 Bridgewater      32-6   .842   .5164 (160)   .5303    0.521

175 Shenandoah    24-10   .706   .5051 (197)   .5262    0.512

184 CNU                  27-12-1   .688   .5099 (180)   .5096    0.510

198 Millsaps             29-8   .784   .5037 (203)   .5130    0.507

[Ralph Turner]

CNU does not deserve a bid. I dont care that they are ranked 24th. They shouldnt be. Look at some of there losses. and a tie to HSU. Although i would say they get a bid over SU. SU has always played a weak schedule.

That's nonsense, SU's SOS is ranked 180 vs. CNU's 190.

Look at the numbers, one could say that SU has a slight edge over CNU but if the #1 seeds continue to get knocked out of their tourney's, then it's a moot point as both CNU and SU will be home for NCAA's.

An SOS of 180 vs 190 is so small that post-season tourney outcomes can change those numbers.   

.512 (SU) vs .509 (CNU) and changing daily!