BB: USAC: USA South Athletic Conference

[Wood]

NARCH :    Two big wins for MU  and conference USAC but who do you think would get the regional bid if USAC gets two teams in? (MU or NCWC)   You seem to be knowledgeable about how the selection process is done.

[A.G.]

Methodist up to 6 in the newest rankings:
1    Salisbury    38-2    34-2
2    Lynchburg    30-11    24-8
3    Piedmont    33-12    31-12
4    Emory    25-11-1    23-9-1
5    Christopher Newport    28-12    21-11
6    Methodist    28-15-1    22-12-1

http://www.ncaa.com/baseball/default.aspx?id=212508

I think MU has to be hoping the committee decides to send a Mid-Atlantic team like Hopkins down south, and along with R-MC (ODAC winner) make it an 8-team affair.

[NCWC]

Methodist up to 6 in the newest rankings:
1    Salisbury    38-2    34-2
2    Lynchburg    30-11    24-8
3    Piedmont    33-12    31-12
4    Emory    25-11-1    23-9-1
5    Christopher Newport    28-12    21-11
6    Methodist    28-15-1    22-12-1

http://www.ncaa.com/baseball/default.aspx?id=212508

I think MU has to be hoping the committee decides to send a Mid-Atlantic team like Hopkins down south, and along with R-MC (ODAC winner) make it an 8-team affair.

How does Methodist have the heads up on NCWC?

[A.G.]

I wondered the same thing.

[narch]

How does Methodist have the heads up on NCWC?

i'd be willing to bet it's strenght of schedule, since both have similar regional records - i've got mu at 23-13-1 and ncwc at 23-12-1 in region, but i've got mu's owp at .558 and ncwc's owp at .538...that's a significant difference - the ncaa has a tradition of rewarding teams that schedule strong...when you schedule 3 games against emu (10-30), 2 against capital (10-26-1) and then a historically strong team like york drops off significantly (14-27), you run the risk of having it bite you on the back-side during the regional ranking process - additionally, mu is 5-5-1 vs. teams that are ranked ahead of them (pc, lc, emory and cnu) while ncwc is just 3-5 against pc, lc and cnu (they didn't play emory) - that being said, i bet there isn't much space between the monarchs and bishops in these rankings...maybe the proverbial hair - here is a reminder of the criteria used to rank:

These are the primary criteria that are used to rank the Pool C teams:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality of Wins Index: only contests versus regional competition - i'm about 95% certain this has been replaced by owp and oowp
• In- region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams
• Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process only.
• Conference post-season contests are included.
• Contests versus provisional members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.

[NCWC]

What about NCWC taking two of three from Methodist, and Methodist finishing 4th in the conference?

[Falcon2720]

In-region games are just as important as conference games.  The committee does not see a difference in playing conference games and in-region games. Each game is worth the same.

Methodist has several solid non-conference wins including LaGrange, Huntington, VWC, 2 against Piedmont, Bridgewater, Lynchburg, and 2 against R-Macon.

[Wood]

That is the problem. Conference does not matter.

[Falcon2720]

You can't determine a regional berth based on 12 conference games.  Every region game is important.

They use the same system for every region throughout the country.  Some conferences are weaker top to bottom than other conferences so in-region games are important.

I don't think Methodist or Wesleyan will get in.  I think they both should get because the USA South is so strong.

I think this year has proved that NCWC is better than Methodist.  Methodist has proved it is better than Piedmont.

[Wood]

I agree Falcon, but when two teams from the same conference are so close with regards to regional rankings you would think that how they performed in conference would be the tie breaker.

[narch]

I agree Falcon, but when two teams from the same conference are so close with regards to regional rankings you would think that how they performed in conference would be the tie breaker.

but some would argue that a .558 owp isn't really that close to a .538 owp and there isn't a tie...

conference games are all regional games, so they count...they just don't count any more than the games against piedmont, lynchburg, emory or eastern mennonite -  as falcon mentions, giving more weight to conference games would shift more bids to solid teams in weak conferences - in all, i think that the 35+ regional games are a much stronger indication of overall strength than 12 conference games in the grand picture of the ncaa tournament and regional rankings

i'm not as willing to say that ncwc is better than mu...there was really one game that separated the two teams in conference standings (if mu had swept ncwc during the regular season, both teams would have finished 8-4 in usasac play) - when you look at common ooc opponents (piedmont, lynchburg, lagrange, vwc, hsc, bc, vwc, capital), you'll find that mu was 9-3 (.750) and ncwc was 6-6-1 (.500) - i'm not prepared to say mu is better than ncwc, but i'm not prepared to say that the bishops are better than the monarchs, either

and, once again, i don't think either team gets a bid...

[NCWC]

We definitely need an 8 team regional.

[Ralph Turner]

We definitely need an 8 team regional.

Hello NCWC.

I want to make sure that we are talking about the same thing.  I will assume that you have been involved with NCWC since "way back before the pool system" and there was a regional character to the playoffs.

An eight team regional will not make a difference whether NCWC or MU gets a bid.  The 14 Pool C bids are determined nationally by the selection committee comparing the next best team from each of the 8 regions.  The committee will then bracket the 54 seeds into 6-team and 8-team brackets by geographic proximity.

[Wood]

Narch in terms of winning % what about  a in conference MU at 9-7 .562 vs NCWC at 12-5 .705 Don't you think most teams play their best teams for conference games. Also teams that feel they are secure in regional playoffs may not play as intense after conference tournaments. All I am saying is that two teams from the same conference that are ranked by regional criteria back to back , that the rankings   should not allow a 4th place team to jump a 2nd place team from the same conference.                   
( I agree that Mu and NCWC will not make the regionals)
PS I hope anything that I said has not been taken the wrong way. I have enjoyed learning how all this stuff works and you seem to know your stuff.  Maybe the reginal folks will let our teams fight it out again on the field)

[Rikki_Tikki_Tavi]

PS They could send salisbury to the mid-atlantic, just food for thought.