NE Region General Questions

[madzillagd]

Based on his formula KS has it this way currently (through 1/27/13 games)

1. WPI
2. Williams
3. Brandeis
4. RIC
5. Midd
6. MIT
7. Springfield
8. Curry
9. EC
10. Wes
11. Amherst
12. Clark
13. Tufts
14. Westfield
15. Salem St.

Interesting that with his formula that Magnus isn't even on the list but Massey has their SOS at 374 so you can't get much lower than that. 

[madzillagd]

Here's my list and I've indicated Y/N on whether I've watched them play... (I think WPI gets ranked #1 in the first go around but I don't think they are as good as Amherst & Williams)

1. Amherst (Y)
2. Williams (Y)
3. WPI (Y)
4. Midd (Y)
5. MIT (Y)
6. RIC (N)
7. Brandeis (N)
8. Springfield (Y)
9. Magnus (N)
10. Tufts (Y)

Basically went head to head matchups for the NESCAC schools.  In a head to head matchup I think WPI beats Midd, but I don't think WPI can beat Amherst or Williams.  The Tufts pick at the end is more a reward for their recent play.  By the end of the year I'm predicting they will win 10 out of their last 11 which is a nice way to end the year after starting out 6-7.

[jamiejohn]

1)  WPI 
2)  Midd
3)  Williams
4)  Amherst
5)  RIC
6)  Brandeis
7)  MIT
8)  Albertus
9)  Tufts
10)  Eastern CT

[7express]

My list.  You have my permission to kick me when I'm done with the list.   I beleive they list 12 NE teams on the men's side, so thats what I'll go with:

1) WPI
2) Williams
3) Middlebury
4) Amherst
5) MIT
6) Brandeis
7) RIC
8) Springfield
9) Tufts
10) Eastern Connecticut
11) Westfield
12) Curry
if I was going 15, Albertus, Clark & USM would round out the 15 in that order.

Couple notes:
I haven't watched many games this year so this is mainly due to records and schedule strength more than anything else, which is why I said it was OK at the top to kick me.  With that said, that's why WPI is at the top.  I don't think their as good as the big NESCAC 3, but until they lose like the NESCAC 3 have at least once they'll be at the top of my rankings.
The Amherst loss to Babson drops them down below Mid & Williams
Brandeis did lose to RIC, but it was by 2, their first game of the year and the UAA is running circles around the LEC this season, so they get the bump ahead of RIC.
Really 9+ could really go any order between like 10-15 teams have a chance to be in that last 3 to 4 range.  Granted, none of them are going to get in as Pool C's, but its good to see your school on the list, especially if you've historically had a bad team like USM, that's what I'm hoping for, hopefully they can crack the top 12 somehow.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

They do rank 12 in the Northeast... the ratio is 6.5 teams to 1 ranking spot. So for the Northeast there are 75 teams... thus 12 spots.

[walzy31]

Rankings look more or less right.
I think RIC and Tufts are playing good ball now.
Amherst needed that Babson game to wake them up.

For the NESCAC "big three" I would put Williams third since they only get contributions from five players. Each team has key x-factor pairs (Thompson/Kizell, Toomey/Workman, Mayer/Epley), all six of which will all be All-Conference.

[madzillagd]

For the NESCAC "big three" I would put Williams third since they only get contributions from five players. Each team has key x-factor pairs (Thompson/Kizell, Toomey/Workman, Mayer/Epley), all six of which will all be All-Conference.

I went straight head to head matchups on the NESCAC 3 but you bring up a very valid point about the Ephs relying heavily on their starters.  However, when I compare Williams and Midd one thing that really concerns me on the Midd side is the scoring.  Midd is a better defensive squad but I don't think they have the scoring capability the Ephs do, even though Williams relies on their starters.

If you take a look at the numbers, Midd scoring is way down once the league games started in January (their defense is better too on the positive side) and I think that has to be a concern as we near the tournament.  Amherst and Williams have both had a dip as well, but it isn't nearly as large as Midd.

Here's the Points For/Against for Nov/Dec vs Jan, and the Differential.

Midd N/D  PF:   89.3 PA:  69.7   Diff: 19.6
Midd J PF:   70.1  PA: 57.6    Diff: 12.5
Change in Differential: -7.1

Amherst N/D  PF:   86.7 PA:  69.2  Diff: 17.5
Amherst J PF:   79.7  PA: 66.3    Diff: 13.4
Change in Differential: -4.1

Williams N/D  PF:   84.5 PA:  64.7   Diff: 19.8
Williams J PF:   79.3  PA: 63.8    Diff: 15.5
Change in Differential: -4.3

That 19.2 ppg drop for Midd concerns me and makes it hard for me to say they have a better chance than Amherst or Williams to make a run when they start playing tougher competition. 

[ECSUalum]

D3hoops.com men's Top 25, Week 10
Through games of Sunday, Feb. 3:

# School (1st votes)       Rec Pts Prev.
1 St. Thomas (13)          20-1 608 2
2 WPI (8)                      21-0 585 4
3 Whitworth (4)             20-1 568 3
4 Rochester                   19-1 521 1
5 Middlebury                  19-1 519 6
6 Amherst                     20-2 447 10
7 Williams                      20-2 424 9
8 Catholic                     19-2 405 11
9 Illinois Wesleyan          18-3 401 12
10 Ramapo                    20-2 400 13
11 North Central (Ill.)      18-3 399 7
12 St. Mary's (Md.)         19-2 368 14
13 Calvin                       19-2 296 17
14 Wooster                   18-3 293 8
15 UW-Stevens Point      18-4 280 5
16 UW-Whitewater         17-4 269 15
17 Hampden-Sydney       19-2 256 19
18 Rhode Island College   18-3 183 18
19 Rose-Hulman             19-2 147 23
20 Washington U.           16-4 144 21
21 Christopher Newport   15-3 142 16
22 Wheaton (Ill.)            16-5 69 20
23 MIT                         16-4 56 --
24 Cortland State           17-3 52 --
25 Stevens                    17-3 45 --

Dropped out: No. 22 Transylvania, No. 24 Wesley, No. 25 Brandeis.

Others receiving votes: Brandeis 40; Transylvania 26; Ohio Wesleyan 26; Wesley 24; Albertus Magnus 23; Albright 23; UW-Stout 22; Augustana 20; Mary Hardin-Baylor 16; St. Norbert 9; Guilford 5; Franklin and Marshall 5; SUNY-Old Westbury 5; Marietta 4.

[pjunito]

First Regional Rankings.. No real suprises with the top 7.. Everything after the top 7; just win the your conference and you're in. If not, than it is the ECAC this year.

Northeast
1 WPI 21-0 21-0
2 Amherst 20-2 20-2
3 Williams 18-2 20-2
4 Middlebury 16-1 19-1
5 Rhode Island College 18-3 18-3
6 Brandeis 15-5 15-5
7 MIT 15-4 16-4
8 Curry 15-6 15-6
9 Westfield State 15-4 17-4
10 Springfield 15-7 15-7
11 Eastern Connecticut 14-4 14-7
12 Albertus Magnus 20-2 20-3

[warriorcat]

I believe that the top six through Brandeis are pretty good bets for Pool C bids provided they do not slip badly with their remaining games.  I am not so sure about MIT.  They do not have a win over any of the top 6 and only two wins against regionally ranked opponents (Curry #8 and Springfield #10).    Three of their losses are against ranked teams (WPI, RIC, and Springfield) with a bad loss against Salem St.  What they do have in front of them is a great chance to nail it down with a win aagainst WPI in the regular season finale.  Without a win there and anything short of advancing to the tournament final, probably against WPI again, they are IMHO a bubble team at best for a Pool C berth.  I do not think consideration should be given to how well they did last year nor how they might have been with two injured players who did not play this year.

[Hugenerd]

My prediction for Week 3 NE Regional Rankings

1 Amherst
2 Williams
3 WPI
4 Rhode Island College
5 MIT (3-0 this week, including win over last week's #1)
6 Middlebury (low SOS, 1-2 against regionally ranked teams, win vs. Plattsburgh who entered East region rankings last week, 0-2 vs NE region ranked teams)
7 Brandeis (big game against WashU tomorrow)
8 Springfield
9 Westfield State
10 Eastern Connecticut
11 Curry (lost to East Naz)
12 Tufts (Their only 5 region losses are to Top 7 region teams, Amherst, Williams, MIT, Middlebury, and Brandeis. They have won 14 of 17, with their 3 losses coming to the Top 3 NESCAC teams)

[Bucket]

My prediction for Week 3 NE Regional Rankings

1 Amherst
2 Williams
3 WPI
4 Rhode Island College
5 MIT (3-0 this week, including win over last week's #1)
6 Middlebury (low SOS, 1-2 against regionally ranked teams, win vs. Plattsburgh who entered East region rankings last week, 0-2 vs NE region ranked teams)
7 Brandeis (big game against WashU tomorrow)
8 Springfield
9 Westfield State
10 Eastern Connecticut
11 Curry (lost to East Naz)
12 Tufts (Their only 5 region losses are to Top 7 region teams, Amherst, Williams, MIT, Middlebury, and Brandeis. They have won 14 of 17, with their 3 losses coming to the Top 3 NESCAC teams)

Midd's strength of schedule is actually higher than RIC's, which is why I just do not see Middlebury being ranked below RIC regionally. So, Middlebury has a higher winning percentage and a higher strength of schedule. Against regionally ranked opponents, Midd is 1-2 and RIC is 3-3. (Within the specific region Midd is 0-2, but the losses are to #1 and #3.)



Perhap

[Hugenerd]

That was untrue as of last week, where RIC was at 0.539 and Midd was 0.521.  Based on Knightslappy's SOS numbers, those numbers may have changed, but I was basing it on last week's SOS numbers.  Midd still doesnt have any wins over anyone ranked in the region, even if Tufts moves into the rankings this week (they only look at previously ranked regional opponents, so if Tufts is ranked it will help them in the final regional rankings).

[Bucket]

That was untrue as of last week, where RIC was at 0.539 and Midd was 0.521.  Based on Knightslappy's SOS numbers, those numbers may have changed, but I was basing it on last week's SOS numbers.  Midd still doesnt have any wins over anyone ranked in the region, even if Tufts moves into the rankings this week (they only look at previously ranked regional opponents, so if Tufts is ranked it will help them in the final regional rankings).

Except the criteria is for regionally-ranked opponents, not opponents ranked within the region. Middlebury has a win over Plattsburgh State, which is ranked in the east region.

[Hugenerd]

That was untrue as of last week, where RIC was at 0.539 and Midd was 0.521.  Based on Knightslappy's SOS numbers, those numbers may have changed, but I was basing it on last week's SOS numbers.  Midd still doesnt have any wins over anyone ranked in the region, even if Tufts moves into the rankings this week (they only look at previously ranked regional opponents, so if Tufts is ranked it will help them in the final regional rankings).

Except the criteria is for regionally-ranked opponents, not opponents ranked within the region. Middlebury has a win over Plattsburgh State, which is ranked in the east region.

Thats not what I said, I said Midd still doesnt have any wins vs. teams ranked in the region, I was not disputing that their vRRO will be 1-2 this week.  However, in head-to-head criteria, it is still hard to place them because they have no wins over teams that have appeared on the NE region rankings.  So, although we know they are definitely below Amherst and Williams based on head-to-head results, there is nobody we can say they definitely should be ranked higher than because of a win against one of those teams.  That's why its more of a toss-up for them, in my opinion.

If that is not clear, take the example of RIC.  They have lost to Amherst and WPI, so they should be ranked below them, but they have wins over MIT and split with ECSU (and lead their conference that ECSU is in).  Therefore, a logical place for them to be in the rankings is below Amherst and WPI, but above MIT and ECSU.  We don't have that type of information for Middleburry because they havent beat anyone in the NE region rankings.