NE Region General Questions

[GingerBaker]

Hi, guys,

This is a copy-paste of something I just posted on the NESCAC board.  I was hoping to get input from non-CAC people as well, so I figured I'd put this up here as well.

I just wanted to chip in re: out-of-conference scheduling for Amherst.  I know their early season schedule isn't terribly gaudy, but I've also noticed that after those first few games (Ken Wright, then small Mass. opponents - like Anna Maria, Westfield St., etc) they tend to schedule a few bruisers before conference play.  I'm especially thinking of Brandeis and Babson.  Both those schools seem to have somewhat competitive programs - while we don't tend to see either go deep into NCAAs, it seems like they always take Amherst down to the wire.  In each of the last few years, one of those two programs has handed Amherst an early-season loss.  Now, Bab/Bran aren't national powerhouses, but they match up against Amherst really well.  I guess my point is that Hixon knows which programs will play Amherst tough - regardless of whether they'd be considered tough outside of that one particular game - and I feel as though he's more concerned with putting his players through tests against teams who always seem to play Amherst really close, as opposed to scheduling some marquee matchup just for the sake of having a big game on a schedule. 

Does anyone agree/disagree strongly with what I've written?  I am pretty happy with Amherst's schedulings the past few years - while those first few contests are "eh" competitively, the games between the beginning of the regular season and the beginning of conference play (which is probably what Hixon and co. care most about anyway...) are much tougher; at the same time, they may not be "brand" opponents (pun intended!)

[pjunito]

Welcome Ginger!

I don't know too much about Amh scheduling the last few years, but they've been very competitive the last few years, going deep into the tournament and are defending Champions. I think they play a solid out of conference schedule, they always have top tier Little east and NEWMAC teams (on their schedule - modify). Plus, they play in the best league in the region. I think by mid February they will always play challenging games that will make them tough during the NCAA tournament.

[Charles]

Welcome Ginger!

I don't know too much about Amh scheduling the last few years, but they've been very competitive the last few years, going deep into the tournament and are defending Champions. I think they play a solid out of conference schedule, they always have top tier Little east and NEWMAC teams. Plus, they play in the best league in the region. I think by mid February they will always play challenging games that will make them tough during the NCAA tournament.

They play in the NESCAC?

[GnacBballFan]

Yes Charles, unless I'm misting something, they do

[lildave678]

Yeah they're clearly talking about Amherst...

[Charles]

My bad I thought they were refering to AMC not AMH.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There is no specific weight given to any of the criteria. Comparisons to teams is different in each "match-up" when positioning. There is no hard and fast rule because what works for the first comparison may not work for the second, the third, etc. A source on the men's committee side of things has told me they are really dealing with two major issues: head-to-head results compared to a team's entire resume (you can see that debate in play in the Midwest where Wash U is #1 ahead of Illinois Wesleyan, despite the fact IWU beat Wash U head to head) and gaudy records compared to weak SOSs (you can see that in a number of places... this happens to be one place with AMC).

I like the SOS because it not only compares a team's schedule of opponents, but also evens the playing field a bit when comparing the opponents' opponents. Say a team beats someone who is 15-2... that seems great until you realize the team who is now 15-2 played 10 teams that haven't won more than five games. It gives you a sense of just how difficult or not difficult a schedule really is so teams who have gaudy records are not unduly rewarded. Is the system perfect? No, it has changed over the years and recently the NCAA has changed how the math is calculated (small difference) and I am not sure it really shows the SOS the way the men's committee wants. However, it is a far cry from the crappy QOWI (Quality of Wins Index) which was so very flawed.

As for AMC's schedule... I have actually talked to Coach Oliver about their out-of-conference schedule and I did this year as well. He pointed out how NJC was one of those games that looked like it would be good on paper, but turned out to be not so great. And we see it all the time where a schedule done 12 to 24 months in advance doesn't work the way you hope. However, there are some simple things you can do to avoid some problems. AMC scheduled Purchase and NJC... but there isn't another team on that schedule that jumps out at me. Furthermore, the NJAC and the Skyline are not exactly the best places to find a boost to your SOS. (By the way, Elms hasn't been a "power" in the Northeast Region in several years: 13-11, 18-10, 18-11. Even their 20-8 year wasn't all that great.)

AMC's schedule features games against the CUNYAC, Skyline, NJAC and the NECC in their out-of-conference play. In fact they triple-dipped in the NECC. No other conferences. And the conferences they choose are not exactly the strongest when it comes to their SOS numbers. In fact, the NECC is pretty weak and AMC has those numbers in their three times. You have to schedule better or at least schedule a team from some mid- to power conferences. One game against a NESCAC team would boost their SOS because even if they didn't play Amherst or Williams they would get the benefit of those teams playing Amherst and Williams. A game against a NEWMAC school would also have the same effect. If they want to travel to different areas, a game against NYU, Brandeis or Rochester would bring in the national scope of the UAA; a game against Merchant Marine or Drew would bring in the Landmark; play a Plattsburgh or someone in the SUNYAC and you are rewarded as well. It doesn't have to be the entire out of conference schedule, but just one or two games in better conferences - and not triple-dipping in a weak conference like the NECC - can make a world of difference... EVEN IF YOU LOSE THE GAME!

AMC can't help their conference except to get on the cases of other coaches to schedule better themselves and to start winning - something that is a topic of conversation in a lot of conferences across the country. However, they can do themselves some favors with their out-of-conference schedule and for most teams that's where the secret is.

As for AMC being a 6th or 7th ranked team... they would be the perfect team to ship somewhere else. The national committee does its best to have as many of the opening weekend pods have as many regions represented as possible (northeast can be a challenge, sometimes two NE teams are in a pod). However, AMC's location allows them to come into the Atlantic, East, Mid-Atlantic and even the South Region (if Randolph-Macon were hosting) and meet up with teams consisting of four different regions. They may get a decent game in the first round, but they will get a very challenging game in the second round. If they rise a little further up, they could be in a hosting position if there are any red-tape problems. If they fall a little lower, they could be considered a sacrificial lamb in a pod and would have to prove the skeptics wrong.

Finally... let's remember this is just one ranking. In two weeks, this ranking will actually mean nothing. It is just a base-line to understand what the committees are thinking and to understand what needs to happen for teams to move up or position themselves for the NCAA tournament. The message to AMC is: you don't have a strong schedule and thus your loss to St. Joe's is not something we will overlook. Keep winning and you will be fine, especially if you win the conference. Loss and you risk not making the tournament and especially not hosting the first weekend.

[lildave678]

Good read Dave! It's starting to come together in my mind haha. Maybe Mitch will read that post, especially the part regarding scheduling mid-table power conference teams since they'll get the boost from them playing top teams week in and week out.

[lildave678]

And certainly not saying it to imply I'd wanna avoid the Amherst's of the world and keep a weaker schedule, just have to start somewhere!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It is amazing to see the "light go off" with coaches and such and see scheduling changes. This SOS has been around for awhile and there have been many coaches with this heads in the sand (I don't think Coach Oliver fits that description - there are others I am thinking about), but when they realize they are doing themselves no favors I notice scheduling changes and I see them interested in tournaments like the Hoopsville Classic and the D3hoops Classic.

Another thing I think is starting to jump coaches in the right direction is this 70% rule. It doesn't necessarily apply in the Northeast... but there are some coaches who refuse to change their scheduling and don't meet the criteria so all of their Division III games can count. This year we have seen some waivers granted and denied... and the message is clear: you have teams within your region and driving distance you can play... you need to play them. And the warning is no waivers next year except for extreme reasons... and that will also be a wake up call.

[GnacBballFan]

There is no specific weight given to any of the criteria. Comparisons to teams is different in each "match-up" when positioning. There is no hard and fast rule because what works for the first comparison may not work for the second, the third, etc. A source on the men's committee side of things has told me they are really dealing with two major issues: head-to-head results compared to a team's entire resume (you can see that debate in play in the Midwest where Wash U is #1 ahead of Illinois Wesleyan, despite the fact IWU beat Wash U head to head) and gaudy records compared to weak SOSs (you can see that in a number of places... this happens to be one place with AMC).

I like the SOS because it not only compares a team's schedule of opponents, but also evens the playing field a bit when comparing the opponents' opponents. Say a team beats someone who is 15-2... that seems great until you realize the team who is now 15-2 played 10 teams that haven't won more than five games. It gives you a sense of just how difficult or not difficult a schedule really is so teams who have gaudy records are not unduly rewarded. Is the system perfect? No, it has changed over the years and recently the NCAA has changed how the math is calculated (small difference) and I am not sure it really shows the SOS the way the men's committee wants. However, it is a far cry from the crappy QOWI (Quality of Wins Index) which was so very flawed.

As for AMC's schedule... I have actually talked to Coach Oliver about their out-of-conference schedule and I did this year as well. He pointed out how NJC was one of those games that looked like it would be good on paper, but turned out to be not so great. And we see it all the time where a schedule done 12 to 24 months in advance doesn't work the way you hope. However, there are some simple things you can do to avoid some problems. AMC scheduled Purchase and NJC... but there isn't another team on that schedule that jumps out at me. Furthermore, the NJAC and the Skyline are not exactly the best places to find a boost to your SOS. (By the way, Elms hasn't been a "power" in the Northeast Region in several years: 13-11, 18-10, 18-11. Even their 20-8 year wasn't all that great.)

AMC's schedule features games against the CUNYAC, Skyline, NJAC and the NECC in their out-of-conference play. In fact they triple-dipped in the NECC. No other conferences. And the conferences they choose are not exactly the strongest when it comes to their SOS numbers. In fact, the NECC is pretty weak and AMC has those numbers in their three times. You have to schedule better or at least schedule a team from some mid- to power conferences. One game against a NESCAC team would boost their SOS because even if they didn't play Amherst or Williams they would get the benefit of those teams playing Amherst and Williams. A game against a NEWMAC school would also have the same effect. If they want to travel to different areas, a game against NYU, Brandeis or Rochester would bring in the national scope of the UAA; a game against Merchant Marine or Drew would bring in the Landmark; play a Plattsburgh or someone in the SUNYAC and you are rewarded as well. It doesn't have to be the entire out of conference schedule, but just one or two games in better conferences - and not triple-dipping in a weak conference like the NECC - can make a world of difference... EVEN IF YOU LOSE THE GAME!

AMC can't help their conference except to get on the cases of other coaches to schedule better themselves and to start winning - something that is a topic of conversation in a lot of conferences across the country. However, they can do themselves some favors with their out-of-conference schedule and for most teams that's where the secret is.

As for AMC being a 6th or 7th ranked team... they would be the perfect team to ship somewhere else. The national committee does its best to have as many of the opening weekend pods have as many regions represented as possible (northeast can be a challenge, sometimes two NE teams are in a pod). However, AMC's location allows them to come into the Atlantic, East, Mid-Atlantic and even the South Region (if Randolph-Macon were hosting) and meet up with teams consisting of four different regions. They may get a decent game in the first round, but they will get a very challenging game in the second round. If they rise a little further up, they could be in a hosting position if there are any red-tape problems. If they fall a little lower, they could be considered a sacrificial lamb in a pod and would have to prove the skeptics wrong.

Finally... let's remember this is just one ranking. In two weeks, this ranking will actually mean nothing. It is just a base-line to understand what the committees are thinking and to understand what needs to happen for teams to move up or position themselves for the NCAA tournament. The message to AMC is: you don't have a strong schedule and thus your loss to St. Joe's is not something we will overlook. Keep winning and you will be fine, especially if you win the conference. Loss and you risk not making the tournament and especially not hosting the first weekend.

Great post Dave, and great insight. One thing, I never called elms a "power." Nothing close to that, that be a foolish statement if I did. Called them a solid program in the region. 4 20 win seasons

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well... to be fair... Elms hasn't had a 20-win season since 2011... and even when they were really good, couldn't get out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. They are another team whose conference has given them the chance to bolster their win total like Mitchell this year.

Elms was very good, though, don't get me wrong... but they also don't have that same coach in charge.

[pjunito]

Dave,

That post is the reason why the people respect you. I completely understand how a team like Albertus could be ranked 8 in the their region, even though they have one lost. Thanks for the insight. I do agree that Albertus could have a few LEC and NEWMAC and NESCAC teams on their schedules. Odd that they didn't have one this year, but maybe they get an invite to a few pre-season tournaments to play tougher competition.

Let's see how the rankings look next week.. And as an Albertus fan, hopefully they keep winning!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It was a crazy week in basketball not only on the court, but off it as well. Pat Coleman joins me to talk about two interesting coaching moves and what the last two weeks of the regular season has in store for everyone.

We will also talk to #7 Amherst MBB coach Dave Hixon along with the following guests:

- #25 Texas-Tyler WBB coach Kevin Baker
- Castleton State WBB coach Tim Barrett
- Baptist Bible MBB coach Mike Show
- Rose-Hulman MBB Jim Shaw
- #21 Randolph-Macon MBB coach Nathan Davis

Show starts at 7 PM EST and will run at least 2:30 tonight.

You can tune in here: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2013-14/feb16

You can also follow us on social media
- Twitter (@d3hoopsville and #Hoopsville)
- Facebook (www.facebook.com/Hoopsville)
- Email (hoopsville@d3hoops.com)

Thanks and enjoy the show!

[GnacBballFan]

I think Johnson and Wales is a top ten team in the region. Go look at their second semester of games. 1 loss to albertus on the road. New team ever since Touze came aboard. 17-5, no reason they shouldn't be a strong consideration for top 10 in the region