NE Region General Questions

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I obviously saw WPI at the Hoopsville Classic... I saw Stockton this past weekend. I saw Amherst as well among others recently.

F&M and Lynchburg are good teams, but Stockton was not a Top 10 team... maybe not Top 15. WPI was better than Stockton and that is considering I saw WPI at the beginning of their season. I just can't buy in to an AMC team that never is as good as advertised, not when Babson stumped on Amherst by 19 (and it could have been worse). Husson may have lost to Bates, but the way Bates is playing right now... Husson is the better team. And the NESCAC is going to beat themselves up this year - two teams coming out of that conference will probably be the max this season.

[WPI89]

I think there is nothing on paper or elsewhere to put AMC at #1. They lost to Richard Stockton who was overrated at #4 who barely survived Lynchburg and needed a chaotic recovery to not get blown out by F&M. I also don't see anything about Western CT to makes me want to put them that high. Babson continues to prove themselves as WPI has as well. Not sure why you left Amherst off the list, despite some close games, they are getting the job done.

My judgement may be tainted by the fact that I have seen Magnus and Western in person this year.  By quality wins - probly WPI should be 1 - but I didn't want to be "that guy".  I think if Magnus keeps all their players healthy and together - they are going to be a nightmare this year come tourney time.  Western looks the best I have seen them since DaQuan.  The beauty of a straw poll in early January is that almost everyone will be wrong.  Also saw Dickinson beat York this weekend.  They didn't play that well - but they won semi handily.  They will win 2 tourney games minimum - provided they survive their tough Centennial Conference.  F&M is good and I think Hopkins may be much improved as well.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I obviously saw WPI at the Hoopsville Classic... I saw Stockton this past weekend. I saw Amherst as well among others recently.

F&M and Lynchburg are good teams, but Stockton was not a Top 10 team... maybe not Top 15. WPI was better than Stockton and that is considering I saw WPI at the beginning of their season. I just can't buy in to an AMC team that never is as good as advertised, not when Babson stumped on Amherst by 19 (and it could have been worse). Husson may have lost to Bates, but the way Bates is playing right now... Husson is the better team. And the NESCAC is going to beat themselves up this year - two teams coming out of that conference will probably be the max this season.

Did you think Stockton was suffering too much with the backup PG?  That is one thing that could really derail them.  Stockton relies on crisp passing and I could see them really hurting without a good, low turnover PG.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

In my upcoming blog post about my Top 25 ballot, I wrote this about Richard Stockton:

The Osprey were way to highly ranked. I finally got to see Richard Stockton this past weekend and realized that my gut feeling of having them seventh on my last ballot was correct – they were too high. Even if they had beaten Franklin & Marshall on Sunday, they probably would have fallen at least five spots (maybe staying ahead of Ohio Wesleyan). This is a good team with plenty of talent, but they play immaturely, can't keep their emotions in check, don't seem to listen to the coaching staff at times (how else do you get a technical for too many men on the court out of a timeout), and don't have a grasp of the game at other times (you never foul a buzzer beating three point attempt, for example). It is nice to see the Osprey back in the national conversation, but remember this is a very young squad who is probably riding the coattails of last year's success in the eyes of other voters and has already proven can make a lot of mistakes. Oh, and they lost their point guard a while back and are still searching for that leadership on the court.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

In my upcoming blog post about my Top 25 ballot, I wrote this about Richard Stockton:

The Osprey were way to highly ranked. I finally got to see Richard Stockton this past weekend and realized that my gut feeling of having them seventh on my last ballot was correct – they were too high. Even if they had beaten Franklin & Marshall on Sunday, they probably would have fallen at least five spots (maybe staying ahead of Ohio Wesleyan). This is a good team with plenty of talent, but they play immaturely, can't keep their emotions in check, don't seem to listen to the coaching staff at times (how else do you get a technical for too many men on the court out of a timeout), and don't have a grasp of the game at other times (you never foul a buzzer beating three point attempt, for example). It is nice to see the Osprey back in the national conversation, but remember this is a very young squad who is probably riding the coattails of last year's success in the eyes of other voters and has already proven can make a lot of mistakes. Oh, and they lost their point guard a while back and are still searching for that leadership on the court.

I wonder if the time has actually hurt their on-court chemistry?  I saw them in game #2 and Blamon seemed to be keeping all the emotions in check across the board.  He wasn't necessarily leading vocally or even on the scoreboard, but he was a calming presence and the team looked to him to set a tone.  With all the newcomers, I wonder if they're now being more assertive and it's causing growing pains.  Some of my observations early were the exact opposite of what you said here - they were very disciplined and smart for such a green squad.  Just another mystery to add to the pile.

[nescac1]

My rankings: 1. Albertus, 2. Midd, 3. Babson, 4. Western Conn, 5. Keene, 6. WPI, 7. Eastern Conn, 8. Amherst, 9. Williams, 10. Trinity.   Trinity is on a major roll right now, and their upcoming schedule is pretty soft ... if they can beat Williams at Williams, very possible as that is a pretty good match-up for them, they could easily be 16-2 heading into the road match-up with Amherst.  I would not sleep on them. 

Albertus has the most talent, clearly, but definitely has some "fit" questions since two of their three best players are really ball-dominating penetrating point guards, and they also need to show more discipline out there.  Midd, given the history of the program and being undefeated, deserves more respect than they have received.  I was not overwhelmed by WPI's talent level, and I thought Williams was a marginally better team overall, but WPI just made more big plays down the stretch.  No way that they are a top-10 team nationally, certainly.  There will likely be a lot of changes coming soon, lots of big match-ups over the next 8 days: Midd-SUNY, Eastern Conn-Amherst, Williams-Trinity, Williams-Amherst, Babson-Springfield, Babson-WPI, WPI-Springfield, WPI-MIT, RIC-Keene, Western Conn-Keene, perhaps others too. 

That's an insanely dense group of games with regional ranking implications.  We might get some clarity, but I think, more likely, things only get more muddled, as there is a ton of parity among each of the three best New England conferences this year (NEWMAC, NESCAC, LEC), and I think teams are going to be knocking each other off as soon as it seems like any particular team is gaining momentum.  AMC, on the other hand, very likely will not lose again until the post-season, and given the lack of powerhouse teams in New England this year, there is a good chance they get to host for awhile in the NCAA's. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just for the record... AMC can't host at all. They have too small a gym by NCAA standards. So it won't really matter where they are ranked because outside of a first-round bye, they won't see their gym outside of practices in March.

[nescac1]

Ahhh, thanks Dave.  That is a tough break for them.  I really do think they could beat anyone in D3 on any given night, and in a year where there are no true powerhouse teams in New England, there is a big window to come out of this region.  But can they put a sustained stretch of excellence together against quality opponents, all of them on the road or at neutral sites?  I'm not so sure ...

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Let's remember their past has proven otherwise. They have had a chance to beat anyone in New England and failed. I know this isn't the same team, but I feel they had a better team last year with better inside presence and they got stomped by Williams on neutral court.

And you aren't even sure they can put together a run against good teams if on road and neutral courts. If you can't support that theory, then how can they be the top team in the region? The top team needs to be feared no matter what court and circumstances. Babson has proven they can win on some tough courts and emphatically (Amherst); WPI has won on a neutral court against good competition. AMC has got to start scheduling a little better (the excuses no one will play them is one thing, but not strong when there are plenty of schools to choose from) and when they play a team like Richard Stockton - they need to win. AMC is a bit overrated for what they have proven or not proven... I keep waiting for the proof to be in the pudding.

And I commented about Middlebury on the NESCAC page... but they have got to prove they can beat more than 3-8 teams. This week will prove a lot - maybe.

[nescac1]

I thought AMC was downright scary against Williams last year -- and that was a Williams team that was incredibly talented, totally healthy, and just totally locked in at that point.  And AMC, after falling behind big, almost gave them a late scare.  Their big guy in that game was limited by foul trouble, but he is back and seemingly even better this year -- he is a ridiculously talented center for D3.  Tavon Sledge is new to the team and he was a guy who played well at a very high level of D1 ball, and he has been lighting it up, he's made some ridiculous plays.  Eian Davis seems to be struggling a bit in his new role, but I know no one on Williams could guard him, he is CRAZY fast with the ball.  Those three guys alone are match-up nightmares, which is why I rank them so high. I still think they are figuring some things out, but I'd be stunned if anyone in D3 has a better top three guys.   

As for how they can be the top team in the region, normally they would not -- New England, while deep this year, has for the first time in forever, no truly elite, Final Four-caliber team at the forefront.  All of the teams are flawed, and I could see ten different teams, at least, finishing atop the region.  I saw Babson in last year's NCAA tourney and have seem them a bit this year.  They are a solid, physical, disciplined, really well-coached team, with one elite player on the squad.  On paper, their resume is better this year than AMC, although I think it's very close.  But they scare me a heck of a lot less than AMC, and from a talent perspective, it's not close.  If you talk about not proving yourself, well, you have to talk about NEWMAC's total flame-out in last year's NCAA tourney, which is pretty consistent with a lot of years of a lot of highly ranked NEWMAC teams with gaudy records losing in early rounds. 

AMC has beaten Western Conn, who by all accounts is very very good this year.  Losing to Stockton, a final four contender, in a close game on the road is nothing to be ashamed of.  Babson has a very solid resume with lots of good wins over quality NESCAC opponents, and is a deserving top-20 team, but the loss to Bates at home is a lot more significant than a loss to Stockton on the road.  The Amherst win, we aren't really sure how meaningful that is, yet ... Amherst has not yet played well, at all.  And they also BARELY beat Salem State and Skidmore, who are both just OK.  Again, I like Babson, I like the way they play, they are NOT fun to play against for anyone, and their resume is probably the best in New England right now.  I just personally think AMC when all is said and done will be better, and since both teams have only one loss, the resumes are close enough that I'd rank AMC first based on the eye test. 

And by the way, I think very, very few teams can get to Salem without ever playing a home game.  It happens on occasion I'm sure, but it is brutally difficult.  So I don't say that as an indictment of AMC, but unless a team is really nationally dominant (which AMC is not), winning five straight on the road against all tourney teams is a very tall task. 

[D3HoopJunkie]

Dave, I know we have disagreed on a few things in the past about my Falcons but I agree with the majority of your post.

Only thing I don't agree with is in your first paragraph you mention they had "better inside presence" last season which isn't really true because they literally returned every inside player and Victor L is living up to his preseason All-American nod and in my opinion is a top 3 Big Man in the country.

No question the Falcons need to prove they can win on the road or on a neutral court against an opponent at or above their level. This has plagued the Falcons since the 2011-2012 seasons. I don't think it's right to count the 2009-2010 seasons when they pulled off the biggest shocker of the tourney on a buzzer beater against William Patterson and then got blown out the following night to a very good DeSales team. That team certainly didn't have the expectation that these past 3 post season teams have had.

Last thing Dave I just want your opinion on what the Falcons can do in terms of scheduling better because I know Coach Oliver has tried year in and year out to schedule NESCAC, NEWMAC and LEC opponents and has had no luck? Sure he got games here and there but mostly comes up empty. Oliver is a very intelligent basketball mind, and his knowledge for the game is as good as anyone. He knows what his schedule looks like on paper.....Its crap and we all know that too. Hell a novice can look and see that but what can they do? My only thought is switch conference but obviously that's a bigger move and effects much more for the school then just basketball and it certainly isn't done overnight. It just frustrates me because I really don't see a solution.

I also want to point out that traveling for this team is very hard. An overnight anywhere is damn near out of the question. Its sad really because the school gives ZERO support to the team in terms of funding. The amount of exposure that the basketball team has given this school since Oliver's tenure began is more then they received ever and they repay Coach Oliver and his players with a pat on the back. Nobody would even know Albertus athletics and the school existed if it wasn't for Falcon Basketball.  (Sorry for the tangent here but I think this directly affects Oliver when he thinks about his schedule)

Thoughts Dave? 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I thought AMC was downright scary against Williams last year -- and that was a Williams team that was incredibly talented, totally healthy, and just totally locked in at that point.  And AMC, after falling behind big, almost gave them a late scare.  Their big guy in that game was limited by foul trouble, but he is back and seemingly even better this year -- he is a ridiculously talented center for D3.  Tavon Sledge is new to the team and he was a guy who played well at a very high level of D1 ball, and he has been lighting it up, he's made some ridiculous plays.  Eian Davis seems to be struggling a bit in his new role, but I know no one on Williams could guard him, he is CRAZY fast with the ball.  Those three guys alone are match-up nightmares, which is why I rank them so high. I still think they are figuring some things out, but I'd be stunned if anyone in D3 has a better top three guys.

AMC was not that scary. Yes, they came back in the second half only when Williams let off the gas, but when the Ephs put their foot back down it was over. AMC had no answer for Williams and were lost the entire game. I was actually looking forward to a really good game and was disappointed in the end.

As for how they can be the top team in the region, normally they would not -- New England, while deep this year, has for the first time in forever, no truly elite, Final Four-caliber team at the forefront.  All of the teams are flawed, and I could see ten different teams, at least, finishing atop the region.  I saw Babson in last year's NCAA tourney and have seem them a bit this year.  They are a solid, physical, disciplined, really well-coached team, with one elite player on the squad.  On paper, their resume is better this year than AMC, although I think it's very close.  But they scare me a heck of a lot less than AMC, and from a talent perspective, it's not close.  If you talk about not proving yourself, well, you have to talk about NEWMAC's total flame-out in last year's NCAA tourney, which is pretty consistent with a lot of years of a lot of highly ranked NEWMAC teams with gaudy records losing in early rounds. 

Completely agree. New England does not have as fearsome a region as in years past, but I would also say there is more talent at the top. I think Babson, WPI, pick-a-NESCAC, and some others all have real chances to get to Salem this year... but they will have survived versus won their way there (though, I think that will be the case as well around the country). I was disappointed with the NEWMAC's performance last year as well, but at the same time they did get some interesting match-ups that lead to some of those results.

AMC has beaten Western Conn, who by all accounts is very very good this year.  Losing to Stockton, a final four contender, in a close game on the road is nothing to be ashamed of.  Babson has a very solid resume with lots of good wins over quality NESCAC opponents, and is a deserving top-20 team, but the loss to Bates at home is a lot more significant than a loss to Stockton on the road.  The Amherst win, we aren't really sure how meaningful that is, yet ... Amherst has not yet played well, at all.  And they also BARELY beat Salem State and Skidmore, who are both just OK.  Again, I like Babson, I like the way they play, they are NOT fun to play against for anyone, and their resume is probably the best in New England right now.  I just personally think AMC when all is said and done will be better, and since both teams have only one loss, the resumes are close enough that I'd rank AMC first based on the eye test. 

Calling Stockton a final four contender is pushing it. They aren't going to get there with this team right now. You might want to reconsider that thought process because Stockton might not get passed the Sweet 16 at this point.

Bates isn't that bad a team. Yes, tough run recently, but all accounts are the Bobcats are going to be battling on top of the NESCAC this year. Not sure I can knock Babson for that.

Also remember, AMC's SOS will not be great - it will be better than in the past - but not great when ranking time comes around.

And by the way, I think very, very few teams can get to Salem without ever playing a home game.  It happens on occasion I'm sure, but it is brutally difficult.  So I don't say that as an indictment of AMC, but unless a team is really nationally dominant (which AMC is not), winning five straight on the road against all tourney teams is a very tall task.

Well... they have to win four straight to get to Salem - five straight to get to the title game - six to win it all . And it will be a very tall task, but AMC has to start proving they can do it at some point for people to buy in.

[D3HoopJunkie]

nescac1.......guy just gets it!! I love the post.

I read all the boards and I know you have seen many more teams then I have and as an Albertus supporter it's refreshing to see a poster from another conference (especially the NESCAC) give such praise.  We may not be the most liked and we certainly play the game harder than most but I spoke to a lovely family from the Williams team before last year's contest at Mary Washington and both parents said the team and even Coach was more worried about playing the Falcons than anyone else on their respected road to the Final Four.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Last thing Dave I just want your opinion on what the Falcons can do in terms of scheduling better because I know Coach Oliver has tried year in and year out to schedule NESCAC, NEWMAC and LEC opponents and has had no luck? Sure he got games here and there but mostly comes up empty. Oliver is a very intelligent basketball mind, and his knowledge for the game is as good as anyone. He knows what his schedule looks like on paper.....Its crap and we all know that too. Hell a novice can look and see that but what can they do? My only thought is switch conference but obviously that's a bigger move and effects much more for the school then just basketball and it certainly isn't done overnight. It just frustrates me because I really don't see a solution.

I also want to point out that traveling for this team is very hard. An overnight anywhere is damn near out of the question. Its sad really because the school gives ZERO support to the team in terms of funding. The amount of exposure that the basketball team has given this school since Oliver's tenure began is more then they received ever and they repay Coach Oliver and his players with a pat on the back. Nobody would even know Albertus athletics and the school existed if it wasn't for Falcon Basketball.  (Sorry for the tangent here but I think this directly affects Oliver when he thinks about his schedule)

Thoughts Dave?

I hear this argument and hold a little with it - but not a lot. I understand people have said AMC gets no one to play them. From what I have been told, this is partially true and not true. True because from what I have gathered, people don't like playing the team for the antics that go along with it. Not true, because there are plenty of teams to find that will still help the schedule. They played at Williams or Amherst a few years ago, if memory serves, and haven't been back since. I don't think they made any "friends" for the non-basketball-game stuff (from what I was told in the region, not something I witnessed of course). On the flip side, they have access to plenty of good teams that keep them from having to stay overnight in New York and New England (even Pennsylvania). However, they might need to reexamine the budget if overnights are a challenge. They need to find a way to take a trip to Las Vegas (D3hoops.com Classic) or other locations and participate in a challenging tournament. We invited them to the Hoopsville Classic, but they are unable to attend due to something they do on campus that same weekend - nothing we can do about that, but internal decisions need to be made to combat the challenge.

On one hand, if schools don't want to play you that is on those schools. On the other hand, you need to find a way yourselves to solve that problem. It certainly isn't going to be blame one side or the other, but only blaming others and not adjusting yourselves is never a good solution.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

nescac1.......guy just gets it!! I love the post.

I read all the boards and I know you have seen many more teams then I have and as an Albertus supporter it's refreshing to see a poster from another conference (especially the NESCAC) give such praise.  We may not be the most liked and we certainly play the game harder than most but I spoke to a lovely family from the Williams team before last year's contest at Mary Washington and both parents said the team and even Coach was more worried about playing the Falcons than anyone else on their respected road to the Final Four.

Williams was absolutely worried about what they would face on the court. That is no secret.