NE Region General Questions

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Bates is done and can't lose again.  WPI to need a pool C would have to lose this weekend.  So no way for WPI to move ahead of them unless they win the NEWMAC and then it wouldn't matter.  So essentially if WPI loses - they can only get in if Bates gets in?  Scary!

Dude, barring a really big upset, Bates is likely one of the first teams off the board.  19-6 with the best SOS in the country?  They're in almost definitely.  You'll also likely have Amherst and/or Trinity ahead of you, too.

[NEhoops]

I think part of the rankings come down to who has the best regional wins, particularly out of league.

Best non-league regional wins for:
ECSU - Colby/Nichols
WPI - Tufts/Fitchburg St/Williams
Albertus Magnus - WCSU

None of those wins are against teams that are regionally ranked. Either the argument is the NESCAC is the top league in the region or that its "down" and then those wins don't look so good after all.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think part of the rankings come down to who has the best regional wins, particularly out of league.

Best non-league regional wins for:
ECSU - Colby/Nichols
WPI - Tufts/Fitchburg St/Williams
Albertus Magnus - WCSU

None of those wins are against teams that are regionally ranked. Either the argument is the NESCAC is the top league in the region or that its "down" and then those wins don't look so good after all.

Plus, a lot of those teams lost last week, making wins over them look worse.

[WPI89]

You guys can quote this SOS crap until the cows come home.  Fact is Bates had a really nice season - I would think 1 year ahead of schedule.  And they will be a really good team next year.  Right now however - they are in the second best 10 teams in the Northeast.  Everyone on this board knows that.

Look (again) WPI has been the beneficiary of this more than most............so (again) this is not sour grapes.  But having to play a usually decent FDU team in a year they win 1 game is WPI's fault?

You could make a case that if WPI lost by 2 to Williams (instead of winning by 2) and then slammed Salem State - they would be 20-5 instead of 21-4 and a hugely improved SOS (having never played the 24 loss FDU team). Then they would be way up in the rankings.

Does that sound like a system that makes sense?

[WPI89]

I think part of the rankings come down to who has the best regional wins, particularly out of league.

Best non-league regional wins for:
ECSU - Colby/Nichols
WPI - Tufts/Fitchburg St/Williams
Albertus Magnus - WCSU

None of those wins are against teams that are regionally ranked. Either the argument is the NESCAC is the top league in the region or that its "down" and then those wins don't look so good after all.

My understanding is that non-region count this year?

[falcons2010]

Bill Mays  here for SOS... I feel like I am in an infomercial.

I have to agree with WPI. I don't want to take anything away from Bates and what they accomplished this year. They had a great year and so quality wins. However, Would they beat the other 8 teams in the rankings if they played tomorrow. In my opinion, no. They wouldn't. I know they already beat Babson and beat Bowdon once (both in November by the way); but the other teams are just playing better at this point of the year.

I hope Bates gets in, I think they deserve it, but not over some of the other teams in the region.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Bill Mays  here for SOS... I feel like I am in an infomercial.

I have to agree with WPI. I don't want to take anything away from Bates and what they accomplished this year. They had a great year and so quality wins. However, Would they beat the other 8 teams in the rankings if they played tomorrow. In my opinion, no. They wouldn't. I know they already beat Babson and beat Bowdon once (both in November by the way); but the other teams are just playing better at this point of the year.

I hope Bates gets in, I think they deserve it, but not over some of the other teams in the region.

But that's just the point - we really don't know what would happen if they played the other teams tomorrow.  I know most of the coach's would rather things be decided by what their teams actually did on the floor, not what they might do.

If Bates had played Albertus' schedule, they'd have a pretty similar record.  Yes, the NESCAC gives them an advantage, but they scheduled out of their mind in November and December.  They deserve the benefit of the doubt this year.

I'm not sold on WPI, by the way.  This team feels weaker then the last couple of seasons to me.  I think they'll make the table, though.  They'll get considered, which means their real competition is from other regions.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

You guys can quote this SOS crap until the cows come home.  Fact is Bates had a really nice season - I would think 1 year ahead of schedule.  And they will be a really good team next year.  Right now however - they are in the second best 10 teams in the Northeast.  Everyone on this board knows that.

We are going to quote the SOS because Bates has the best SOS in the country with a .704 winning percentage. They are also 3-4 vRRO. NONE of that data says they are going to be left out of the tournament unless something incredible happens. Could they be left out? Sure. Will they be left out? Very unlikely. Bowdoin last year should be the first example of why Bates will be in. Emory from last year will be the second (hosting a bye team thanks in part to the best SOS in the country).

Look (again) WPI has been the beneficiary of this more than most............so (again) this is not sour grapes.  But having to play a usually decent FDU team in a year they win 1 game is WPI's fault?

Usually decent FDU-Florham squad? Seriously?

2014-15 (2-23, 1-13 MACF)
2013-14 (13-12, 8-6 MACF)
2012-13 (12-14, 7-7 MACF)
2011-12 (13-13, 8-6 MACF)
2010-11 (6-18, 4-10 MACF)
2009-10 (4-21, 2-12 MACF)
2008-09 (8-17, 6-10 MACF)
2007-08 (3-22, 2-10 MACF)
2006-07 (17-10, 9-5 MACF)

They haven't had a legit better than .500 record since 2006-07 and they haven't been better than 8-6 in an average-at-best conference except for that '06-'07 campaign. They are not usually decent. They are usually average to below average.

You could make a case that if WPI lost by 2 to Williams (instead of winning by 2) and then slammed Salem State - they would be 20-5 instead of 21-4 and a hugely improved SOS (having never played the 24 loss FDU team). Then they would be way up in the rankings.

Does that sound like a system that makes sense?

First off, the game against your opponent doesn't equate into the SOS so that you aren't punished for winning or rewarded for losing. Yes, their WP% would certainly be better if they won... but that is why there are five primary criteria and then a bunch of other secondary criteria.

But to argue the system doesn't make sense because WPI got a game against 24-loss FDU, if they beat Williams, and if they slammed Salem State... makes no sense. You are making up an argument.

WPI has a below-average SOS - fact
WPI has an okay WL% - fact
WPI needs to win it's conference to make sure they make the tournament - that is all that needs to be discussed.

Listen ... you might hate the fact Bates is going to make the tournament thanks to an incredible SOS... but the fact is they also didn't suck against that schedule. They have wins over Babson (#1 in the region), Husson, Southern Vermont, and Nichols... all finished the top of their conferences. They also have wins in conference against Bowdoin, Williams, Middlebury, and Wesleyan. They don't exactly suck. While it may sting they make the tournament... it isn't like they aren't deserving by winning more than 70% of their games against the countries toughest schedule.

[WPI89]

1)  I knew I was in trouble when Falcons joined in on my argument!  LOL 
2)  Forgive me - I only went back 3 years with FDU - and they were as you pointed out - exactly .500 in that time frame.  I called that decent - you call it average. 
3)  You missed my point entirely on the Salem State tourney - I did not say beat Williams and then slam S St -  what I said was WPI would have been better off losing to Williams.  If they did they would have played Salem St instead of FDU.  My limited understanding of the system - made me assume that that would have resulted in a dramatically better SOS - albeit with one more loss.
4)  The biggest issue I have - is your last statement - Bates has always been one of my favorite Northeast schools.  Heck - I had like 19 against them (in a career with less than 100 overall points) in the 80's.  Loved the campus, loved the gym (no idea if it is the same one now), students were into the games - even on cold snowy Tuesday afternoons.  My one AND ONLY concern is not the sting of them getting in - it would be the sting of them NOT getting in and thus blocking WPI.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

My one AND ONLY concern is not the sting of them getting in - it would be the sting of them NOT getting in and thus blocking WPI.

I'm not sure I could make up a scenario where that won't happen.  I'm not sure there are even 19 teams in the country who would get in ahead of them, let alone all 19 losing in their conference tournaments.

I haven't gone back to look, but I doubt any team with a .600+ SOS and 6 losses has ever not gotten in.  Those are pretty impressive numbers for Pool C.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Understood, WPI... I could see where a block of Bates over WPI would hurt. However, if Bates can't get into the tournament... WPI has even less of a chance because of a below-average SOS.

As for the SOS... believe it or not, I can ask a guy to change the WPI game vs. FDU-Florham to Salem State and see the results. To be honest, I don't think it would make that big a difference. What my point was, is not only is FDU on there, but a lot of sub-par teams with below .500 records. We try our best to give the best match-ups possible at the Hoopsville Classic. WPI got some decent games (while Cabrini has struggled, they are rebounding right now). However, you can't then schedule that many below .500 teams (and most are perennial below average teams) and get away with it. WPI's problem for a number of years has been their SOS.

Finally, I'm not sure I said FDU was average... I said that they had been average to below average - I realize I might be splitting hairs... BUT they are in a winnable conference and thus those records could easily be better. The Freedom usually has a decent team or two over the years (DeSales being the most consistent), but there are no world-beaters in that group. FDU has underachieved while their women won a national title and 60 some-odd straight games.

[falcons2010]

WPI, sorry bro!

I think Bates should have an opportunity to play next weekend. I am not a big numbers guy. I prefer to let me eyes do that evaluating. I wiuld never want a regional committee to follow my preference, however.

I just dont put so much on numbers such as SOS or WAR or any other acronym that tries to tell me what player or team is better.

Call me old fashion or an old guy.

[WPI89]

Dave

I can't find any early week losers that would be solid pool C candidates (outside Bates) - are there any yet?

Of course overt the next 3-4 days - that will all change!

Falcons - no problem - I take support anywhere I can get it!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Dave

I can't find any early week losers that would be solid pool C candidates (outside Bates) - are there any yet?

Of course overt the next 3-4 days - that will all change!

Falcons - no problem - I take support anywhere I can get it!

Nobody so far.  There might be a few after tonight, but I don't think we'll see more than three or four to rival Bates' resume.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yeah... no one... though really the tougher games start tonight as Hoops Fan points out. We might start seeing some bubble implications starting tonight.

Honestly, even with Bates losing... no bubble pops, yet. Even if Randolph-Macon had lost today it wouldn't have necessarily popped a bubble just yet.