MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

If Elmhurst were to finish 10-4 -- Andrew's best-case scenario for the CCIW getting four teams into the big dance -- it would leave the Bluejays with a 19-6 regional record (all of EC's game this year have been regional, which makes the 'jays unique in this league). Given that NCC would need to win the CCIW tourney title, and thus the Pool A berth, in this scenario, Elmhurst would therefore pick up a seventh loss in the CCIW tourney. That would leave the Bluejays with a .731 regional winning percentage (19-7), which is definitely bubble territory. I'd go as far as to say that there's only a minute chance that Andrew's scenario could work unless NCC beat Elmhurst in the CCIW title game, thereby giving EC an extra win and a 20-7, .741 regional record. That's still bubble territory, but that extra Elmhurst win in the CCIW semis would either be over Augie or Wheaton, both of whom would be likely to finish regionally ranked (therefore augmenting EC's credentials in another primary criterion).

[andrewmp]

Included in that thought of mine was Elmhurst's win over the top ranked regional team there.  I don't know if that is a criteria, but I remember last year some people thought that Wheaton's wins against some tournament teams helped them get in. 
However, in my post, I did forget to think about how those tourney games would factor in. 
Just speculation, but we are in the time period where these things begin to play themselves out.  During the non-confernce season, a lot of people were speculating about the CCIW getting 3-4 teams in, and with regional rankings out, I think it puts that the discussion back into play.  There is a long way to go and it is still a 5 team race for first, and a seven team race for the tournament.

[Titan Q]

Based on remaining schedules (the contenders all have a lot of tough games left), I think the odds are much better that the league gets only 2 teams in than they are of getting 4.  Things look very positive right now for getting 3 in, but my gut tells me 4 seems very unlikely. 

There is just too much basketball to be played still in a league with tremendous parity.  The regional rankings are nice to see and it's fun to start speculating, but it'd be prudent to wait at least one week before trying frame the tournament possibilities.

[titan2000]

The first regional rankings of the season are out. Here's the Midwest Region's rankings:

team	overall	in-region
1. Washington	17-1	16-1
2. Elmhurst	15-4	15-4
3. Wheaton	16-3	12-3
4. St. Norbert	16-1	15-1
5. Transylvania	14-4	11-2
6. Augustana	15-5	14-5
7. North Central	13-6	11-4
8. Carroll	13-5	13-5

So what will it take for Lawrence University to move up since they beat Carroll U.and St. Norbert College this week?

[usee]

The first regional rankings of the season are out. Here's the Midwest Region's rankings:

team	overall	in-region
1. Washington	17-1	16-1
2. Elmhurst	15-4	15-4
3. Wheaton	16-3	12-3
4. St. Norbert	16-1	15-1
5. Transylvania	14-4	11-2
6. Augustana	15-5	14-5
7. North Central	13-6	11-4
8. Carroll	13-5	13-5

So what will it take for Lawrence University to move up since they beat Carroll U.and St. Norbert College this week?

well, that's a nice start. they can't do much more than win their games against regionally ranked teams. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

They may have dug themselves too deep a hole, with 6 regional losses already.  IF they win out thru the regular season, they would still only be 16-6 (.727).  If they win the conference tourney, they're pool A and the rankings are moot (for them); if they don't, that's another loss and probably the death knell on pool C.

[petemcb]

They may have dug themselves too deep a hole, with 6 regional losses already.  IF they win out thru the regular season, they would still only be 16-6 (.727).  If they win the conference tourney, they're pool A and the rankings are moot (for them); if they don't, that's another loss and probably the death knell on pool C.

Way to let him down gently, Mr. Y. 

[Gregory Sager]

They may have dug themselves too deep a hole, with 6 regional losses already.  IF they win out thru the regular season, they would still only be 16-6 (.727).  If they win the conference tourney, they're pool A and the rankings are moot (for them); if they don't, that's another loss and probably the death knell on pool C.

I'd take "probably" out of that last sentence of yours, Chuck. Lawrence may be a victim of the MWC's insistence upon playing a truncated schedule of only 22 regular-season games. There's a big difference between going into Selection Sunday as a Pool C aspirant with a 20-7 (.741) regional record and going into Selection Sunday as a Pool C aspirant with a 17-7 (.708) regional record. I can't remember there ever being a Pool C team with a regional winning percentage as low as .708.

To sum it up, the only way that Lawrence is getting into the big dance is via the Pool A route.

[petemcb]

Brrrrr.

[petemcb]

Greg and Ypsi, if your alma maters threw up defenses that tough, think of the bloodbath the CCIW season would become.

[Titan Q]

The two Division III finalists for the Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year Award are Wash U's Sean Wallis and Grinnell's David Arsenault...

http://bearsports.wustl.edu/releases/mbk2-4-09.html

There are 15 other finalists from DI and DII.

[titan2000]

Arsenault should not be a candidate.  Efforts to maximize assists like his Dad orchestrated are not worthy of awards, they should be scoffed at. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

They may have dug themselves too deep a hole, with 6 regional losses already.  IF they win out thru the regular season, they would still only be 16-6 (.727).  If they win the conference tourney, they're pool A and the rankings are moot (for them); if they don't, that's another loss and probably the death knell on pool C.

I'd take "probably" out of that last sentence of yours, Chuck. Lawrence may be a victim of the MWC's insistence upon playing a truncated schedule of only 22 regular-season games. There's a big difference between going into Selection Sunday as a Pool C aspirant with a 20-7 (.741) regional record and going into Selection Sunday as a Pool C aspirant with a 17-7 (.708) regional record. I can't remember there ever being a Pool C team with a regional winning percentage as low as .708.

To sum it up, the only way that Lawrence is getting into the big dance is via the Pool A route.

How soon they forget!  Unless I miscounted the in-region games, just last year Wheaton got in at 15-7 (.682).

(But as surprised as Bill Harris was that the season continued, I wouldn't count on the 'Wheaton exception'!)

BTW, in addition to the unpredictablilty of such things, I said 'probably' in order to (in Pete's words) let him down gently!

[augiefan]

I believe that the top two regular season CCIW teams will make the NCAA tourney. A third team will get in if the 3rd or 4th place team wins the CCIW tourney, which is a reasonably possibility this season based on the log jam at the top of the conference right now.

I just hope the tournament selections are determined without critical injuries resulting in qualified teams making the cut. Raymond's absence hurt Wheaton pretty badly for 3 games, but now that he's back at full strength and Wiele is playing tough, Wheaton should  get their tourney bid. Elmhurst is the other team that looks to be in good shape I still think they will be 1-2 in the regular season.

I did not intend in my recent post to rule out NCC or Carthage from tourney bids or even a first or second place finish.. It's right there for the taking for both teams. I just think Wheaton and Elmhurst each have two senior stars (possibly 4 of the CCIW's first team all conference picks along with the kid from Carthage with the unpronouncable name) who are go to guys that will give them the edge down the stretch.

[augiefan]

Have 4 CCIW teams ever made the tournament? I don't recall it. Perhaps the WIAC has had as many as 4 qualifiers, but I do not recall that happening either. Titan I'm sure has the answer.

Now its off to Elmhurst with very modest expectations with or without Bertrand.