MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Moser]

Halftime in Thousand Oaks, CA:

Hamline   35
Wheaton 30

[iwu70]

Re: the Titans, sounds like a great tourney in Texas, with the perimeter shooting coming back into place as it must.  Hope this gives the Titans a good boost in confidence for the conference season upcoming.  Given my comments of some weeks back, I'm still of the view that Zimmer should stay in the line-up and that the key for IWU this year will be the "bigs" of IWU playing with greater tenacity and intimidation.  Let's hope K returns soon and that all the other bigs step up with greater rebounding, strength, and taking it to the basket with greater authority.  Glad to see Shouten playing well, but hope that others from the JV realm get their chance and play with strength.  Connolly and others need to keep improving . . . and Sexauer needs to get on a big roll with scoring and rebounding . . . showing that the inside-outside game can be more consistent.  Just my thoughts after the pre-conference season.  Now the real fun begins. 

Top three in DIII rankings all lost these last few days.  IWU women march on . . . so should be really good games, men and women, with Carthage at The Shirk on the 9th January.

[usee]

Final from the Left coast:

Hamline 69
Wheaton 68

After trailing the entire game Wheaton had a 1 pt lead with 10 seconds to go and Jake Carwell at the line. Carwell misses both free throws and Hamline makes a layup with 1 second left for the upset. Hamline shoots 56% for the game and outrebounds the Thunder 33-22. McCrary had 15 pts 11 assists and 4 rebounds as Wheaton had 4 players in double figures. The Thunder also spent a big part of the second half playing a 2-3 zone (I can't remember the last time Wheaton played any zone defense).

[Titan Q]

Overall   Offense   Defense
---------------------------
Team       P/100P    P/100P
Augie...... 108.7      93.0
Carthage... 109.7     106.2
Elmhurst... 113.3     103.9
IWU........ 109.3     104.0
Millikin...  98.2      97.7
NCC........ 109.3      99.5
NPU........ 103.8     114.1
Wheaton.... 114.2      93.5
                  
CCIW      Offense   Defense
---------------------------
Team       P/100P    P/100P
Augie...... 104.0      94.1
Carthage... 109.4     109.2
Elmhurst... 112.0     105.1
IWU........ 111.5     112.3
Millikin...  97.3     106.4
NCC........ 108.5     103.9
NPU........  99.5     120.4
Wheaton.... 108.3      97.9
---------------------------
CCIW Avg... 106.3     106.3

Last year Dan Sand posted offensive and defensive Points per 100 Possessions a few times throughout the season (see above).  Here are the current CCIW numbers, through last night...

Points per 100 Possessions (offensive efficiency)
1. Carthage (9):   120.1
2. Ill Wesleyan (11):111.2
3. Elmhurst (10):   109.0
4. North Park (10):   106.8
5. North Central (9):105.1
6. Wheaton (9):   104.7
7. Augustana (10):   97.1
8. Millikin (9):   91.0

Opponent Points per 100 Possessions (defensive efficiency)
1. Millikin (9):   89.4
2. Ill Wesleyan (11):93.5
3. Wheaton (9):   94.6
4. Augustana (10):   94.8
5. North Central (9):98.4
6. North Park (10):   99.7
7. Carthage (9):   100.1
8. Elmhurst (10):   110.7

Differential
1. Carthage: +20.0
2. Ill Wesleyan: +17.7
3. Wheaton: +10.1
4. North Park: +7.1
5. North Central: +6.7
6. Augustana: +2.3
7. Millikin: +1.6
8. Elmhurst: -1.7


Keep in mind, CCIW teams have played a wide range of schedules, from very strong to very weak to somewhere in the middle (Augie's stats vs Gonzaga are included above, which hurts their numbers obviously) .  These numbers are not a perfect measure due to this, but I think they do paint a picture.

The Points per Possession numbers seem to track, for the most part, with other league stats on CCIW.org, like FG%, Opponent FG%, points scored, points allowed, etc...

http://www.cciw.org/winter_bball_m/200910_Statistics/CONFLDRS.HTM


(Millikin's stats from last night are not posted yet on their site, so they are not inlcuded.)

[Titan Q]

Here are offensive possessions per game...an indicator of pace:

North Central: 75
Ill Wesleyan: 72
Wheaton: 72
Augustana: 69
North Park: 69
Carthage: 68
Elmhurst: 68
Millikin: 68

[Titan Q]

After trailing the entire game Wheaton had a 1 pt lead with 10 seconds to go and Jake Carwell at the line. Carwell misses both free throws and Hamline makes a layup with 1 second left for the upset.

This might hurt his CCIW Player of the Week chances.

[Titan Q]

Just FYI, for the above calculations, "possessions" are calculated from cumulative season boxscores with the following formula...

Possessions = FGA - Off Reb + T.O. + (.475 * FTA)

[usee]

After trailing the entire game Wheaton had a 1 pt lead with 10 seconds to go and Jake Carwell at the line. Carwell misses both free throws and Hamline makes a layup with 1 second left for the upset.

This might hurt his CCIW Player of the Week chances.

Good point. Still 2 games left this week for him though!

[AndOne]

Final from the Left coast:

Hamline 69
Wheaton 68

After trailing the entire game Wheaton had a 1 pt lead with 10 seconds to go and Jake Carwell at the line. Carwell misses both free throws and Hamline makes a layup with 1 second left for the upset. Hamline shoots 56% for the game and outrebounds the Thunder 33-22. McCrary had 15 pts 11 assists and 4 rebounds as Wheaton had 4 players in double figures. The Thunder also spent a big part of the second half playing a 2-3 zone (I can't remember the last time Wheaton played any zone defense).

USee---

Do you think zone will become a staple of Wheaton's defensive diet? Will we see them employ it much during the conference portion of the season?

[usee]

Final from the Left coast:

Hamline 69
Wheaton 68

After trailing the entire game Wheaton had a 1 pt lead with 10 seconds to go and Jake Carwell at the line. Carwell misses both free throws and Hamline makes a layup with 1 second left for the upset. Hamline shoots 56% for the game and outrebounds the Thunder 33-22. McCrary had 15 pts 11 assists and 4 rebounds as Wheaton had 4 players in double figures. The Thunder also spent a big part of the second half playing a 2-3 zone (I can't remember the last time Wheaton played any zone defense).

USee---

Do you think zone will become a staple of Wheaton's defensive diet? Will we see them employ it much during the conference portion of the season?

AO-I have no idea. Honestly I have never seen Wheaton in a 2-3 zone (or any zone) in the Bill Harris era (although I am sure they must have played it a few times) and Schauer has repeatedly said he is a MTM guy and his Wheaton team will look a lot like Harris coached teams. I assme it was a zone as the radio guy described it that way. That said there must be some strategic reason for playing a zone when you are fundamentally a MTM team. Others who know the game better than I can pontificate on the merits as a strategy.

If they do play a zone for any amount of time it would be a substantive departure from how Schauer has said his teams would play.

[theseguysaregood]

IWU 91
Southwestern 75

•   Jordan Zimmer: 35 pts, 4 reb (13-17 FG, 7-11 3-pt)
•   Doug Sexauer: 16 pts, 10 reb
•   Sean Johnson: 15 pts, 7 assists
•   Travis Rosenkranz: 11 pts, 4 reb, 6 assists


6-5 sophomore guard Jordan Zimmer scored a career best 28 points yesterday vs Trinity.  Today he set a new personal best as a Titan, finishing with 35.  

IWU led just 61-60 with 10:20 to play in the 2nd half in what was a very tight first 10 minutes of the 2nd.  After an IWU timeout, Zimmer went absolutely nuts.  He made 3 consecutive 3's to push the IWU lead to 70-60, and proceeded to score 18 points in 5 minutes on the clock (from 10:20 to 5:20).  

Zimmer's points came from all over the floor – drives to the basket, mid-range jumpers, free throws, and of course, 3-pointers.  He is starting to become a complete college player.  63 points in 2 games...what a tournament for the sophomore from Delavan.

IWU shot 55.6% from the field and 59.1% from 3 (and 53% from the FT line somehow!).

The Titans went through a funk for a few games where they just were not shooting the 3 well at all - most notably the awful 4-24 performance at Chicago.  It was strange, because this should be a very good 3-point shooting team (led by Zimmer and Sean Johnson).  IWU shot 11-23 from 3 vs Trinity and 13-22 vs Southwestern...hopefully this gets them back on track heading into the CCIW schedule.  The Titans are hard to defend when they're knocking down perimeter shots.

IWU finishes the non-conference season 9-2 (8-2 "in-region").

I think the numbers would show that IWU can compete with anyone when shooting their 3's at 50%+.  What will be interesting to watch in conference play is whether they have turned the corner and are able to win games when the 3's aren't dropping.

[petemcb]

I'm trying to think of teams that aren't likely to win when they're shooting a decent number of 3's at over 50%......  Starting digging through the archives.  On your marks, get set,  GO.

[John Gleich]

I'm trying to think of teams that aren't likely to win when they're shooting a decent number of 3's at over 50%......  Starting digging through the archives.  On your marks, get set,  GO.

Teams that turn the ball over tons, can't shoot FT's, can't defend, and or can't rebound.  Or are simply outplayed in a different facet of the game.

I can think of one specific of a team that shot 50% from 3 and lost... the 2003-04 National Championship game between UWSP and defending national champion Williams. 

Williams hit 15/30 3's, outrebounded Point (by 1), turned the ball over just 8 times, and shot 7/10 FT's.  They missed a layup and a wide open 3 in the last minute that could have put them ahead.

In terms of "likeliness to win," Williams only lost two games that year, so they were likely to win even the game I mentioned.

I think that teams who shoot 50% on the season (and this is exactly zero D-III teams thus far this year) are typically skilled enough that they work on other parts of their games too and win more often than they lose.

If you look at the D-III stats (only available for the initial set, through 12/13), you've got to get to #26 in the nation, St. Lawrence, who is shooting 40.8% from deep for the season before you get to a team that is worse than 1 game under .500  (and in the top 25, only 4 teams are at .500 or one game under).

Now, you've got teams on this list that have played everywhere from 3 games to 9, and they'll be much more useful the next time they're updated, because there will be many more teams with many more games.

So, in other words, the premise that teams who average shooting 50% (or even 40%) of their 3's win the majority of the time.

Actually, here's another.  Benedictine, in IWU's opener, 9/18.  Of the 3 games this season where a team shot 50% in games IWU has played, that team won twice (IWU (57%) vs. Southwestern W, Chicago (57%) vs. IWU W, Benedictine (50%) vs. IWU L.

[Gregory Sager]

Final from the Left coast:

Hamline 69
Wheaton 68

After trailing the entire game Wheaton had a 1 pt lead with 10 seconds to go and Jake Carwell at the line. Carwell misses both free throws and Hamline makes a layup with 1 second left for the upset. Hamline shoots 56% for the game and outrebounds the Thunder 33-22. McCrary had 15 pts 11 assists and 4 rebounds as Wheaton had 4 players in double figures. The Thunder also spent a big part of the second half playing a 2-3 zone (I can't remember the last time Wheaton played any zone defense).

USee---

Do you think zone will become a staple of Wheaton's defensive diet? Will we see them employ it much during the conference portion of the season?

AO-I have no idea. Honestly I have never seen Wheaton in a 2-3 zone (or any zone) in the Bill Harris era (although I am sure they must have played it a few times) and Schauer has repeatedly said he is a MTM guy and his Wheaton team will look a lot like Harris coached teams. I assme it was a zone as the radio guy described it that way. That said there must be some strategic reason for playing a zone when you are fundamentally a MTM team. Others who know the game better than I can pontificate on the merits as a strategy.

There are a number of reasons why a coach might opt to employ a zone defense. Here's some of the more time-honored ones:

a) A size imbalance exists in which the defensive team is substantially smaller than the offensive team;

b) There is a proven inability by the offensive team to shoot the trey effectively;

c) The offensive team has multiple penetrators who possess too much quickness to be effectively guarded MTM;

d) The defensive team's star big man is in foul trouble; or

e) The defensive team has a short bench, or the offensive team is a run'n'gun team with a deep bench, or both, and tempo and fatigue are thus working against the defensive team.

Based upon the depth of Hamline's rotation, and the lack of depth of Wheaton's, and the fact that the Pipers were shooting .299 from downtown as a team coming into last night's game, I'd guess that reasons b) and e) were what led to Schauer opting to play zone. But that's just my guess, of course; I claim no special insight into Mike's thinking.

[Titan Q]

I'm trying to think of teams that aren't likely to win when they're shooting a decent number of 3's at over 50%......  Starting digging through the archives.  On your marks, get set,  GO.

I think theseguysaregood used too high a number in making his point (50%), but I certainly agree with the simple premise that 1) the Titans need to shoot the ball better in CCIW games than they did in the non-conference, and 2) IWU is tough to beat when they shoot it well from 3.

Last season IWU shot 39% from 3 (39% in both the non-conference and conference actually).  This non-conference season, the Titans have shot worse than 39% from 3 in 7 of 11 games...

Vs Benedictine, 5-12 (42%)
Vs Webster, 4-16 (25%)
Vs Johnson & Wales, 8-18 (44%)
Vs Wash U, 6-23 (26%) - L
Vs Manchester, 10-26 (38%)
Vs Monmouth, 6-19 (32%)
@ Chicago, 4-24 (17%) - L
Vs MacMurray, 4-15 (27%)
@ Ill College, 5-18 (28%)
@ Trinity, 11-23 (48%)
Vs Southwestern, 13-22 (59%)

Total = 76-216 (35%)

Some of that  has to do with losing John Koschnitzky, who was 21-50 (42%) from 3 last year, and replacing a portion of his minutes with 3-point shooters who are not as good.  Most of it has to do with a) good ole fashioned bad shooting in several games (I was at the Wash U game, and the Titans missed numerous wide-open 3's...as they did @ Chicago, which I watched online), and I suspect, b) bad shot selection – settling for 3's too often, even when that is what the defense is giving you.

This IWU team has a strong low-post presence, led by 6-7 Doug Sexauer (15 ppg, 59% FG).  And in Sean Johnson and Jordan Zimmer, the Titans have two outstanding 3-point shooters, as well as others who can shoot it pretty well.  Ideally, I'd like to see this team shoot 40% from 3...I believe they have the personnel to do that.  But to do so, the Titans have to commit to being a little more patient offensively at times.

CCIW 3-point % leaders (season overall) last 5 years:

2008-09: Elmhurst, 40.3%
2007-08: Elmhurst, 42.4%
2006-07: Augustana, 44.0%
2005-06: Wheaton, 41.4%
2004-05: Ill Wesleyan: 43.4%