MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[REDMENFAN]

From yesterday's Kenosha News. Some good quotes from Bosko about the season and his son

http://www.kenoshanews.com/sports/carthage_men_claim_outright_cciw_championship_7392991.html

[markerickson]

If observation is the traditional approach, yes.  No political motives from my perspective.

[Gregory Sager]

CCIW 1st Team All-Conference

Djurickovic--Carthage
Panner------Wheaton
McCrary-----Wheaton
Twyman-----North Central
Nelson-------Augie

2nd Team

Sexauer---Wesleyan
Johnson---Wesleyan
Raridon----North Central
J. Demby--Millikin
Williams---North Park

3rd Team

Crosby---North Park
Pelton----Augie
Kelly-----Carthage
Boyd-----Elmhurst
Evans----North Central

*My original thought was to go with Sexauer on the 1st team ond Nelson on the 2nd. Their scoring and rebounding totals match very closely. However, Nelson has a better left (off) hand than Sexauer a better right (off) hand, and Nelson is a better defender.

Actually, Mark, the rebounding totals don't match very closely between Nelson and Sexauer. Kyle Nelson is a much better rebounder than his Illinois Wesleyan counterpart. Nelson averages 8.2 rpg, second in the league behind Tim McCrary of Wheaton. Nelson is also second in both the offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding categories, proving his well-roundedness as a glass cleaner. Sexauer averages 5.1 rpg, which ties him for tenth in the league with Elmhurst guard Dustin Bainter. Sexauer ranks fourteenth in the league in offensive rebounding and eighth in defensive rebounding. That's a considerable gap between Nelson and Sexauer in terms of rebounding. Meanwhile, Sexauer's advantage in the scoring stats over Nelson (16.1 ppg to 15.6 ppg. and .667 FG% to .655 FG%) is negligible. Whether the coaches see it that way or not, Nelson should get the nod for first team over Sexauer if it comes down to the two of them.

*Many of you many not be familiar with North Central's Brian Evans, a 6'3' junior forward. However, he shows up among the league leaders in no less than NINE categories:
19th in scoring
11th in steals
11th in FT percentage
Tied 6th in assists
Tied for 15th in blocks--As many blocks as both Sexauer & Nelson
3rd in FG percentage
3rd in total rebounding
3rd in defensive rebounds
FIRST in offensive rebounds (again, at 6'3")

You'll often hear "statistics don't tell the whole story." Very true. If those of you who saw Brian play will remember, you also saw him defending the tallest and/or biggest member of your team, almost always giving away 3-6 inches, and 20-30 lbs.

NCC isn't going to get three players on the All-CCIW team, Mark. That's a foregone conclusion. Without doing an extensive search of the online CCIW history book and my various pre-Internet CCIW media guides, I can pretty much guarantee that no sixth-place team has ever placed three players on the All-CCIW team before.

I think "politics" is the wrong word to describe why this is so, as it implies that there are personal issues involved in the selection. I don't think that that's the case. I doubt that anyone would leave Brian Evans off the team out of personal animosity towards him or Todd Raridon or anyone else connected to the NCC program. I think that, as USee has pointed out before, the linkage between a team's finish in the standings and the number of players that a team gets on the All-CCIW team is more reflective of how much the team was able to accomplish. In other words, if you've got 20% of the best players in the CCIW -- which, by definition, you do if you have three All-CCIW players -- then you should finish with a record commensurate to that amount of ability.

I like Evans a lot. He reminds me of another tough-minded undersized forward who maxed out his abilities every night, NPU's Javier Sanchez (who was an All-CCIW third-teamer in 2004). But sixth-place teams that finish 5-9 don't get three players on the All-CCIW team, and I have no argument with the reasons why.

What is the largest leap of victories from one year to the next?  NP increased seven this year.

NPU's seven-win improvement is the biggest uptick in the CCIW this season. IWU's five-win improvement is second. The last team to improve seven wins in one season was Elmhurst, which went from 3-11 in '04 to 10-4 in '05. Elmhurst's eight-game jump from 4-10 in '00 to 12-2 in '01 (the year it won its sole CCIW title) is the biggest improvement of the current (post-Carroll) era.

[AndOne]

Greg---

2 things:
1. I never meant to suggest Evans or anyone else would be kept off the all-conference team due to any personal animosity toward either him or his coach. Thats why I put the word politics in quotes. I meant, for lack of a better word, the "politics" of the unwritten rule regarding the number of players that a 6th place finisher can expect to have elected to the all-conference team. I realize its a remote possibility at best.
2. The above notwithstanding, I don't believe you'll find many players appearing among the league leaders in as many as nine categories as Brian Evans does. Accordingly, while its not likely to happen, it doesn't mean Brian isn't deserving.

[AndOne]

CCIW 1st Team All-Conference

Djurickovic--Carthage
Panner------Wheaton
McCrary-----Wheaton
Twyman-----North Central
Nelson-------Augie

2nd Team

Sexauer---Wesleyan
Johnson---Wesleyan
Raridon----North Central
J. Demby--Millikin
Williams---North Park

3rd Team

Crosby---North Park
Pelton----Augie
Kelly-----Carthage
Boyd-----Elmhurst
Evans----North Central

*My original thought was to go with Sexauer on the 1st team ond Nelson on the 2nd. Their scoring and rebounding totals match very closely. However, Nelson has a better left (off) hand than Sexauer a better right (off) hand, and Nelson is a better defender.

Actually, Mark, the rebounding totals don't match very closely between Nelson and Sexauer. Kyle Nelson is a much better rebounder than his Illinois Wesleyan counterpart. Nelson averages 8.2 rpg, second in the league behind Tim McCrary of Wheaton. Nelson is also second in both the offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding categories, proving his well-roundedness as a glass cleaner. Sexauer averages 5.1 rpg, which ties him for tenth in the league with Elmhurst guard Dustin Bainter. Sexauer ranks fourteenth in the league in offensive rebounding and eighth in defensive rebounding. That's a considerable gap between Nelson and Sexauer in terms of rebounding. Meanwhile, Sexauer's advantage in the scoring stats over Nelson (16.1 ppg to 15.6 ppg. and .667 FG% to .655 FG%) is negligible. Whether the coaches see it that way or not, Nelson should get the nod for first team over Sexauer if it comes down to the two of them.

Greg--

Indeed! Wonder what the heck I was looking at.
As you point out, all the more reason why Nelson merits a 1st team selection over Sexauer. My conclusion was correct, but my supporting analysis was surely a bit misaligned.   

[ziggy]

As far as whether either has a legitimate Pool C chance, I think it's fair to say either would be "on the bubble."  Both would have to hope for very few upsets across the country (where current Pool A teams fall in conference tournament games and steal Pool C bids).  But I do think IWU would have a much better Pool C case, with a .731 in-region record.  Wheaton's .692 would put the Thunder in position to get in as, like, Pool C #19 of 19.  Both would go in with some good wins over other regionally ranked teams (and that is one of the 5 criteria), which would help.

Again, bottom line, Friday is an elimination game.

Current DIII Bracketology projections have both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan earning Pool C bids. Remember however, that that doesn't predict upsets in conference tournaments and if too many of those projected Pool A's take Pool C bids then some teams will get squeezed out.  See sig for link.

[Gregory Sager]

As far as whether either has a legitimate Pool C chance, I think it's fair to say either would be "on the bubble."  Both would have to hope for very few upsets across the country (where current Pool A teams fall in conference tournament games and steal Pool C bids).  But I do think IWU would have a much better Pool C case, with a .731 in-region record.  Wheaton's .692 would put the Thunder in position to get in as, like, Pool C #19 of 19.  Both would go in with some good wins over other regionally ranked teams (and that is one of the 5 criteria), which would help.

Again, bottom line, Friday is an elimination game.

Current DIII Bracketology projections have both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan earning Pool C bids. Remember however, that that doesn't predict upsets in conference tournaments and if too many of those projected Pool A's take Pool C bids then some teams will get squeezed out.  See sig for link.

History tells us that it's inevitable that a certain number of regular-season champions will stumble in their respective league tourneys, so Bob's conclusion that Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan are riding the bubble at this point -- and that Friday night's showdown between the two in the Toolshed is a win-or-your-season's-over game -- is pretty sound.

[CCIWFAN3]

Regardless of the outcome of IWU vs. Wheaton game....both teams will get in.

[ziggy]

As far as whether either has a legitimate Pool C chance, I think it's fair to say either would be "on the bubble."  Both would have to hope for very few upsets across the country (where current Pool A teams fall in conference tournament games and steal Pool C bids).  But I do think IWU would have a much better Pool C case, with a .731 in-region record.  Wheaton's .692 would put the Thunder in position to get in as, like, Pool C #19 of 19.  Both would go in with some good wins over other regionally ranked teams (and that is one of the 5 criteria), which would help.

Again, bottom line, Friday is an elimination game.

Current DIII Bracketology projections have both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan earning Pool C bids. Remember however, that that doesn't predict upsets in conference tournaments and if too many of those projected Pool A's take Pool C bids then some teams will get squeezed out.  See sig for link.

History tells us that it's inevitable that a certain number of regular-season champions will stumble in their respective league tourneys, so Bob's conclusion that Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan are riding the bubble at this point -- and that Friday night's showdown between the two in the Toolshed is a win-or-your-season's-over game -- is pretty sound.

Not disagreeing with that, I would not feel good if I were a fan of the losing team.

[Gregory Sager]

Regardless of the outcome of IWU vs. Wheaton game....both teams will get in.

And upon what do you base that conclusion?

BTW, Steve Djurickovic just won his fifth POTW award today. Over the dozen seasons' worth of data that have been archived on the CCIW website, nobody else has won more than four POTWs in one season (Kent Raymond won four in '06-'07).

[CCIWFAN3]

Just trust me G.S.

[andrewmp]

Seems to me that the best (and maybe only) chance for the CCIW to get three teams in would be for Wheaton to win out, beating Carthage.  Wheaton and Carthage, both being ahead of IWU on the regional rankings, would be off the board relatively quickly, and IWU would be at the table sooner than later.  I don't see Wheaton getting in with another loss (although it may slip in at the end) and if they beat IWU, they should be ahead of them regionally, but IWU just wouldn't get to the table.

[Gregory Sager]

Just trust me G.S.

This is CCIW Chat, where there's no such thing as a controversial assertion that is accepted on faith. Bring the proof, or you won't close the sale.

Seems to me that the best (and maybe only) chance for the CCIW to get three teams in would be for Wheaton to win out, beating Carthage.  Wheaton and Carthage, both being ahead of IWU on the regional rankings, would be off the board relatively quickly, and IWU would be at the table sooner than later.  I don't see Wheaton getting in with another loss (although it may slip in at the end) and if they beat IWU, they should be ahead of them regionally, but IWU just wouldn't get to the table.

In that scenario, Wheaton's regional ranking would be meaningless in terms of the Pool C situation, since the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance would get the CCIW's automatic Pool A bid. Same thing for IWU if the Titans were to win the CCIW tourney.

I can't see any way that the CCIW will get in three teams. Sure, the Titans would get to the table fairly quickly (especially if Anderson and St. Norbert win their respective league tourneys), because Carthage would be one of the first handful of teams to grab a Pool C berth and "leave the table." But even if IWU was to get to the table fairly quickly, the Titans would sit there for a good long while with a .720 in-region winning percentage and what will most likely be a 3-5 record against regionally-ranked teams.

[JuliePants]

Does anyone know why the Friday CCIW tourney games are at 5:00 & 7:30 this year?  I'm not sure what the norm is, but if I remember correctly, they were 6:00 & 8:00 last year.  Is this decided by the CCIW or by the host school?  A 6:00 game seems a lot easier to make it out for than 5:00.

[theseguysaregood]

As far as whether either has a legitimate Pool C chance, I think it's fair to say either would be "on the bubble."  Both would have to hope for very few upsets across the country (where current Pool A teams fall in conference tournament games and steal Pool C bids).  But I do think IWU would have a much better Pool C case, with a .731 in-region record.  Wheaton's .692 would put the Thunder in position to get in as, like, Pool C #19 of 19.  Both would go in with some good wins over other regionally ranked teams (and that is one of the 5 criteria), which would help.

Again, bottom line, Friday is an elimination game.

Current DIII Bracketology projections have both Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan earning Pool C bids. Remember however, that that doesn't predict upsets in conference tournaments and if too many of those projected Pool A's take Pool C bids then some teams will get squeezed out.  See sig for link.

History tells us that it's inevitable that a certain number of regular-season champions will stumble in their respective league tourneys, so Bob's conclusion that Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan are riding the bubble at this point -- and that Friday night's showdown between the two in the Toolshed is a win-or-your-season's-over game -- is pretty sound.

Your history lesson is accurate, but needs one little addition that I think makes a difference.  The regular season champion that stumbles must themselves, be a higher Pool C candidate than the CCIW teams.  A regular season champ with poor Pool C credentials who stumbles means nothing to the bigger picture.  That conference just gets one team in regardless of upsets.