MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

The Augustana/Carthage game was a classic as well.  I thought Augie looked outstanding - from my perspective, they pretty clearly outplayed the Red Men last night.  It's just that a kid who is on another level completely took the game over in the final minutes.  Wow is Stevie D. good.

I watched the second game from the 1st row of one of the baselines, and was blown away with how big Augustana is.  I heard the Anderson head coach on Hoopsville a while back and he said that after playing Augie, they felt like the Vikings are bigger that D1 Ball St (who they played an exhibition against).  I see what he meant - Augie's 4/5 guys are beasts (and the scary thing is most of them are freshmen!).  6-9 junior Kyle Nelson is an absolute horse in the paint.  Obviously, Augie's problem is that they just do not have many guys who can knock down a perimeter shot (outside Pelton).

Carthage has huge matchup problems vs Augustana - last night's game looked just like the 2nd half of the regular season game in Kenosha (which I watched on the stream).  Augie had a great gameplan and executed it really well.

Hats off the Carthage for getting to done, but also to Augustana...the Vikings looked great.    

[Titan Q]

Next Games for the "Bubble Bursters"

Williams (NESCAC, Northeast) – Saturday, vs Bates

William Paterson (NJAC, Atlantic) – Saturday, vs Richard Stockton

St. Thomas (MIAC, West) – lost to Carleton

Whitworth (NWC, West) – Saturday, vs George Fox

Eastern Mennonite (ODAC, South) – Saturday, vs Randolph-Macon

MIT (NEWMAC, Northeast) – Saturday, vs Clark

Central (IIAC, West) – Saturday, vs Buena Vista

Carthage (CCIW, Midwest) - Saturday, vs Illinois Wesleyan

St. Mary's (CAC, Mid-Atlantic) – Saturday, vs Wesley

John Carroll (OAC, Great Lakes) - lost to Heidelberg

Texas-Dallas (ASC, South) – Saturday, vs East Texas Baptist

St. John Fisher (E8, East) – Saturday, vs Nazareth

St. Norbert (MWC, Midwest) – Saturday, vs Carroll

Wooster (NCAC, Great Lakes) – Saturday, vs Wittenberg

Merchant Marine (LAND, Atlantic) - Saturday, vs Scranton

Franklin & Marshall (CC, Mid-Atlantic) - Saturday, vs Muhlenberg



With a loss tonight vs Carthage, I think IWU is just about a Pool C lock.  The Titans would be the first team from the Midwest region at the table and would probably be one of the first 8 or so Pool C's selected. 

For Wheaton to have a chance, there can't be too many more upsets than the 2 already (St. Thomas, John Carroll).  My gut feeling is that right now Wheaton is sitting at about Pool C #18 of 19...the Thunder cannot afford more than about 1 upset among the teams listed above.  

[iwumichigander]

With a loss tonight vs Carthage, I think IWU is just about a Pool C lock.  The Titans would be the first team from the Midwest region at the table and would probably be one of the first 8 or so Pool C's selected. 

For Wheaton to have a chance, there can't be too many more upsets than the 2 already (St. Thomas, John Carroll).  My gut feeling is that right now Wheaton is sitting at about Pool C #18 of 19...the Thunder cannot afford more than about 1 upset among the teams listed above. 

Q - What do you think Wheaton's chances are if there are no other upsets in Midwest (regardless of CCIW Conference final outcome)?

[Titan Q]

With a loss tonight vs Carthage, I think IWU is just about a Pool C lock.  The Titans would be the first team from the Midwest region at the table and would probably be one of the first 8 or so Pool C's selected. 

For Wheaton to have a chance, there can't be too many more upsets than the 2 already (St. Thomas, John Carroll).  My gut feeling is that right now Wheaton is sitting at about Pool C #18 of 19...the Thunder cannot afford more than about 1 upset among the teams listed above. 

Q - What do you think Wheaton's chances are if there are no other upsets in Midwest (regardless of CCIW Conference final outcome)?

Well, I don't really think any Midwest region game today impacts Wheaton's chances.  I think regardless of what happens in the Midwest, Wheaton will be the #2 Pool C candidate from the region.

Here are the last regional rankings:

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2010/02/24/2010-regional-ranking-week-4/

If St. Norbert and Anderson lose, I don't think either would be ranked higher than Wheaton tomorrow.  And even if IWU beats Carthage, that just means Carthage replaces IWU as the regions top Pool C candidate.

The upsets Wheaton needs to dodge are those in the other 7 regions (the games I listed above).

[AndOne]

What happened to Raul Guzman of Carthage last night?
Why did he only play 7 minutes?

[usee]

I think the question on regional games comes from Coach Schauer who commented on the postgame last night that Wheaton needs all the other teams in their region to earn the pool A to get them to the table early.

Q- are you assuming IWU will be ahead of Wheaton by virtue of the win last night (which may be) or do the numbers improve drastically for IWU that they would switch with Wheaton? I don't know the answer but I also don't assume the committee will simply flip Wheaton and IWU by virtue of last nights win since Wheaton is 2-1 vs the Titans for the season. In other words, how do the numbers stack up?

[John Gleich]

I posted a hypothetical over on the Pool C board, looking at Wheaton vs. La Crosse... and I assumed that Wheaton would win against IWU (just had to choose which hypothetical situation I was talking about)

What do people think about La Crosse's chances at a Pool C bid?  I've been looking at them versus other on-the-bubble teams like Wheaton and IWU, and I think they may be on the table at the same time (barring any big upsets in the West, or elsewhere across the country, for that matter).


West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Wisconsin-Whitewater 21-4 21-4 A
2. St. Thomas (Minnesota) 20-2 23-2 A
3. Whitworth 21-2 23-2 A
4. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 20-4 21-4 C
5. Central (Iowa) 19-2 21-4 A
6. Chapman 17-1 23-2 B
7. Wisconsin-La Crosse 16-8 17-9 C?  (record updated to reflect Tuesday's loss)
8. Claremont–Mudd-Scripps 15-4 19-5 A
9. Augsburg 17-7 18-7


If everything holds serve in the West, then La Crosse will be on the table pretty early.  They're the second non-conference leading/Pool C lock in the West after Stevens Point who will be off the table pretty quickly.  Things get stickier if both SP and WW lose, or if Whitworth or St. Thomas lose... but let's just pretend that they all win and SP/WW get taken early.

How does La Crosse stack up?

I think it might possibly come down to LaX and Wheaton and/or IWU. 

Midwest Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. Washington-St. Louis 19-2 22-2 A
2. Carthage 16-3 20-5 A
3. Wheaton (Illinois) 18-8 19-8  C?
4. Illinois Wesleyan 18-7 19-7  C?

REG   #   WP      OWP     OOWP    SOS     RPI50   RPI     NAT   Pool        REG     OVR   CONF     Team
W    08   0.667   0.568   0.557   0.564   0.597   0.630   051   C   018    16-8    17-9   WIAC     UW-La Crosse
MW   07   0.692   0.554   0.532   0.547   0.587   0.628   053   C   020    18-8    18-7   CCIW     Wheaton (IL)
MW   04   0.720   0.558   0.530   0.549   0.599   0.649   038   C   011    18-8    19-6   CCIW     IWU

I updated these numbers through next Saturday, projecting Wheaton beating IWU and then losing to Carthage.  The OWP/OOWP/SOS won't change too much between now and then, but the win % would, so I changed above based on this situation.

How Wheaton/LaX stack up?

• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents Wheaton (.692-.667)
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition) (LaX .564-.547)
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) (weighted 2/3).
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP) (weighted 1/3).
- Add OWP and OOWP to give total strength of schedule
• In-region head-to-head competition (--)
• In-region results versus common regional opponents (LaX 1-0 vs. Elmhurst Wheaton 2-0)
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams (LaX 2-3, Wheaton currently 4-3, would be 5-4 if they beat IWU and lose Sat to either Carthage or Augie)

I'm not sure if that's decisive, but Wheaton may have the tops.

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision by the committee, the following secondary criteria (for ranking and selections) will be evaluated:
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition (- -)
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage (Wheaton 19-8 vs. La Crosse 15-8)
• Results versus common non Division III opponents (- -)
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams (LaX 3-3, Wheaton 5-4 or 6-5 with the above scenario)
• Overall win-loss percentage
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII Strength of Schedule.

I guess it looks like Wheaton still has the upper hand so they'd get in.  IWU has a better regional W%, so if they win tomorrow and then lose in the final, they might move ahead of Wheaton and could be head to head with LaX... but LaX may actually drop with their loss Tuesday (doesn't look like that was taken into account with the rankings last night)

Those numbers I posted were as of last Sunday.  It's hard to tell how the OWP and OOWP would change by virtue of the fact that, though IWU and Wheaton played each other (which would raise the OWP and the OOWP, because their opponents' numbers are both higher than what their numbers through Sunday were), there's no saying what happened to other opponents through the week.  We could look at it... but it makes more sense to run the numbers after all the games are done than to do in intermediately.

Anyway... as of last Sunday, IWU's SOS was slightly higher than Wheaton's, but it's essentially a wash... With IWU winning, Wheaton is 17-8 and IWU is 19-6.  That makes the WP disparity even greater (.76 for IWU vs. .68 for Wheaton).  The win for IWU makes them 1-2, which is remarkably better than 0-3 and better than 0-2... the argument can't be made anymore that IWU didn't beat Wheaton (so it would be hard to put them in the tournament over them)... because they did.

As an aside, the La Crosse/Wheaton argument gets a little more interesting, but I think that they may both lose out.  I thought Pat's projection of Wheaton at #5 was way too high... and they would have to drop significantly from that projection with their semi-final loss (as opposed to a final loss)

[iwumichigander]

With a loss tonight vs Carthage, I think IWU is just about a Pool C lock.  The Titans would be the first team from the Midwest region at the table and would probably be one of the first 8 or so Pool C's selected. 

For Wheaton to have a chance, there can't be too many more upsets than the 2 already (St. Thomas, John Carroll).  My gut feeling is that right now Wheaton is sitting at about Pool C #18 of 19...the Thunder cannot afford more than about 1 upset among the teams listed above. 

Q - What do you think Wheaton's chances are if there are no other upsets in Midwest (regardless of CCIW Conference final outcome)?

Well, I don't really think any Midwest region game today impacts Wheaton's chances.  I think regardless of what happens in the Midwest, Wheaton will be the #2 Pool C candidate from the region.

Here are the last regional rankings:

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2010/02/24/2010-regional-ranking-week-4/

If St. Norbert and Anderson lose, I don't think either would be ranked higher than Wheaton tomorrow.  And even if IWU beats Carthage, that just means Carthage replaces IWU as the regions top Pool C candidate.

The upsets Wheaton needs to dodge are those in the other 7 regions (the games I listed above).

As to USee's comment, I think IWU moved up over Wheaton, in the committee's eyes even if IWU loses to Carthage tonight.   I did not think Anderson would be ranked higher than Wheaton.  I think maybe St. Norbert (with a lose to Carroll) could be against the Thunder's now 17-8 in region record.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Another C slot has disappeared - MIT fell to Clark, 71-59.

[carthagealum]

What happened to Raul Guzman of Carthage last night?
Why did he only play 7 minutes?

If I remember correctly, at that very early point he had four fouls, the last two a foul followed by a technical.

[CCIWFAN3]

Q.  Last night's starting lineup is IWU's best.  I said last fall that John K is a natural 4, and not a 3.  John is much more effective at the 4 spot.  Good luck tonight!

[Gregory Sager]

Carthage 70
Illinois Wesleyan 67

Great game.

[usee]

Next Games for the "Bubble Bursters"

St. Thomas (MIAC, West) – lost to Carleton

Whitworth (NWC, West) – Saturday, vs George Fox

Eastern Mennonite (ODAC, South) – lost to Randolph-Macon

MIT (NEWMAC, Northeast) – lost to Clark

John Carroll (OAC, Great Lakes) - lost to Heidelberg

St. John Fisher (E8, East) – lost to  Nazareth




With a loss tonight vs Carthage, I think IWU is just about a Pool C lock.  The Titans would be the first team from the Midwest region at the table and would probably be one of the first 8 or so Pool C's selected. 

For Wheaton to have a chance, there can't be too many more upsets than the 2 already (St. Thomas, John Carroll).  My gut feeling is that right now Wheaton is sitting at about Pool C #18 of 19...the Thunder cannot afford more than about 1 upset among the teams listed above. 

In addition to the 2 listed above there were 3 more upsets. Eastern Menonite, MIT and St John Fisher all lost. Whitworth, the only result not in, is playing now and leads by 4 in the 1st stanza.

It doesn't look good for the Thunder.

[Gregory Sager]

Carthage 70, Illinois Wesleyan 67

* Steve Djurickovic: 26 pts, 5 asts
* Tyler Pierce: 13 pts, 6 rebs, 4 asts (and played the game with a migraine, according to Bosko's postgame interview on the radio)
* Max Cary: 12 pts, 5 rebs
* Mitch Thompson: 5 rebs, 6 blks
* Raul Guzman: 5 rebs

* Sean Johnson: 17 pts
* Doug Sexauer: 14 pts
* Travis Rosenkranz: 10 pts, 7 rebs, 5 asts
* Duncan Lawson: 6 rebs

This one almost turned into a repeat of last nights IWU vs. WC game, with the Titans coming back from a substantial second-half deficit to win. However, Carthage made most of the big plays in the last two minutes of tonight's contest: A huge trey by Cody Hilton with 1:47 left to cut a four-point Titans lead down to one, a spinning layup by Steve Djurickovic with 23 seconds left to put Carthage up by one (after he and Travis Rosenkranz had traded layups on the two previous possessions), and a block by Max Cary of a Sean Johnson layup attempt that was followed by Mitch Thompson retrieving the ball and knocking down both FTs after Doug Sexauer had fouled him (and fouled out in the process) to give Carthage that final three-point lead. Johnson's trey attempt to tie at the buzzer went awry.

So now Carthage goes dancing for the first time in eight years, and is a strong candidate to host next weekend as well, with IWU presumably on its way to a Pool C berth.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

thank u to all who posted updates on the games this past weekend - as i couldn't get the streaming to work.