MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mr. Ypsi]

Next Games for the "Bubble Bursters"

St. Thomas (MIAC, West) – lost to Carleton

Whitworth (NWC, West) – Saturday, vs George Fox

Eastern Mennonite (ODAC, South) – lost to Randolph-Macon

MIT (NEWMAC, Northeast) – lost to Clark

John Carroll (OAC, Great Lakes) - lost to Heidelberg

St. John Fisher (E8, East) – lost to  Nazareth




With a loss tonight vs Carthage, I think IWU is just about a Pool C lock.  The Titans would be the first team from the Midwest region at the table and would probably be one of the first 8 or so Pool C's selected. 

For Wheaton to have a chance, there can't be too many more upsets than the 2 already (St. Thomas, John Carroll).  My gut feeling is that right now Wheaton is sitting at about Pool C #18 of 19...the Thunder cannot afford more than about 1 upset among the teams listed above. 

In addition to the 2 listed above there were 3 more upsets. Eastern Menonite, MIT and St John Fisher all lost. Whitworth, the only result not in, is playing now and leads by 4 in the 1st stanza.

It doesn't look good for the Thunder.

I don't think the RMC/EMU game is relevant - I think the ODAC has been a lock for four teams for a week or so.  But a game that might be relevant is Defiance over Anderson - I think Anderson has better credentials than Wheaton.

I'm expecting two CCIW teams, and hoping for three.

[Mr. Ypsi]

IWU came SO close to a sweep of the tourneys.

Since the women won by ten, is there any provision in the CCIW bylaws that they could donate several of those points to the men?   (After all, Christina Solari is engaged to Sean Dwyer - she'd probably be willing to donate a couple of her baskets! )

[Titan Q]

First post for me from a moving vehicle (southbound on I-55).  Another chat board milestone.

Tremendous game between the Titans and Red Men today.  IWU really battled, but in the end Carthage just made a few huge plays.  Down 4, Cody Hilton drills a 3 that I'm sure every IWU fan in the building was glad to see go up.  And then Stevie D did what he always does...those two dribble-drive shots he hit were very well defended.  If you are a Titan fan tonight, you're terribly disappointed, but I think you just have to tip your cap to some huge plays by Carthage.

Again, great game.  Congrats to Carthage.

(Hwy 30 exit, Aurora/Joliet)

[Titan Q]

Regarding Pool C, here is some initial analysis done between Great America and the I-294/I-55 junction...

I see 9 Pool C teams that will get in before the highest ranked team in the Midwest (which almost certainly will be IWU).  These are in no order...

* St. Thomas
* St. John Fisher
* John Carroll
* MIT
* Eastern Mennonite
* Virginia Wesleyan
* Guilford/Randolph-Macon loser (tomorrow)
* UW-Whitewater
* Williams/Middlebury loser (tomorrow)

(I'm putting 4 ODAC teams in...3 Pool C's.)

I see two games tomorrow that could potentially add teams to this list:

- Gettysburg @ Franklin & Marshall (need F&M to win)
- Texas-Dallas @ Mary Hardin-Baylor (need Texas-Dallas to win)

So if IWU is the highest ranked Midwest Pool C candidate, I think they probably enter the selection process behind 9 teams...11 at the most (if F&M and Texas-Dallas both lose).  Now, there are 19 Pool C bids available, so they have 10 rounds or so to get selected.  And if you look at the resumes of the candidates after those top 9, there are not that many better than IWU's overall.  Several have better in-region winning %, but IWU is helped by a strong strength of schedule and several wins over other regionally ranked teams (Carthage, Wheaton, Augustana twice).

After those 11 near locks listed above (assuming both F&M and Texas-Dallas lose tomorrow), I see IWU in the next tier of Pool C candidates, alongside teams like the following (again, in no order):

* Richard Stockton
* Oneonta St
* Illinois Wesleyan
* Lycoming
* Colby
* Brandeis
 

If the Midwest committee ranks IWU ahead of Wheaton (which again, almost has to happen), I feel very confident IWU gets in somewhere in the neighborhood of round 13 or so...and about #17 at the absolute worst.  I believe the Titans are in good shape.

I think Wheaton is out.  With the upsets that have taken place, I just don't think the .680 in-region winning percentage will be competitive. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think it looks good for Wheaton.

I think the final 2-3 Pool C spots will come down to this group of teams:

* Rutgers-Newark
* Ithaca
* Calvin
* Thomas More
* Messiah
* Wheaton (IL)
* Anderson
* Austin
* UW-La Crosse


Wheaton cannot afford for either of the swing games I mentioned above to go the wrong way tomorrow...Franklin & Marshall and Texas-Dallas have to win.  (The tough thing is that the SCAC conference tournament location rotates and this year it happens to be at Mary Hardin-Baylor...so Texas-Dallas has to get it done on the road to save a Pool C.)

[Titan Q]

i]might[/i] be relevant is Defiance over Anderson - I think Anderson has better credentials than Wheaton.

But didn't the committee already make that decision last week?  They had Wheaton ranked #3 in the Midwest and Anderson #6.  Both Wheaton and Anderson lost in the last 2 days, so how would Anderson end up ranked higher than Wheaton?  (With IWU vs Wheaton - in terms of flipping the regional ranking - the Titans just won a head-to-head game.)

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2010/02/24/2010-regional-ranking-week-4/

I think the only way the Midwest committee ends up ranking Anderson over Wheaton, is if they decide Wheaton's .680 just simply gives the Thunder no Pool C chance at all, so they give Anderson and their .800 regional record a chance to fight in out after IWU gets placed.

[sac]

TitanQ on wheels

[Mr. Ypsi]

i]might[/i] be relevant is Defiance over Anderson - I think Anderson has better credentials than Wheaton.

But didn't the committee already make that decision last week?  They had Wheaton ranked #3 in the Midwest and Anderson #6.  Both Wheaton and Anderson lost in the last 2 days, so how would Anderson end up ranked higher than Wheaton?  (With IWU vs Wheaton - in terms of flipping the regional ranking - the Titans just won a head-to-head game.)

http://d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2010/02/24/2010-regional-ranking-week-4/

I think the only way the Midwest committee ends up ranking Anderson over Wheaton, is if they decide Wheaton's .680 just simply gives the Thunder no Pool C chance at all, so they give Anderson and their .800 regional record a chance to fight in out after IWU gets placed.

You are right (as usual).

For some reason I keep thinking that Anderson (and the whole HCAC) are in the Great Lakes region.  Maybe it's bitterness over the Hanover games!

BTW, I imagine you're about at Pontiac now.

[kenoshamark]

Bob,

Nice to see you tonight !!

It really was a terrific ballgame.   Carthage had opened a 13 point lead in the second half and looked like they might be able to keep a nice lead but IWU fought back to eventually take the lead.   A couple of unsung heroes were Cody Hilton not only for his huge 3 to cut the lead to one but his great defense tonight on Zimmer and Tyler Pierce for his work inside and some perfect passes that led to easy layups..   Also, Ryan Connolly really stepped up with some fine minutes when Sexauer got in foul trouble.

At the end, it was Steve who made the game winning shot.  What a wonderful move after being hounded very effectively by Sean Dwyer for a good portion of the second half.  Mitch Thompson clinched it with two huge free throws after the block by Max Cary.   

The atmosphere in the final minute was special....what a great venue Carthage has!!!   Congrats to Bosko and his staff for being able to assimilate four freshmen into a rotation of 8/9 and bring them a conference championship.   This team has potential to make some noise in the tourney when you have a player as special as Steve and the cast he has around him.

[Titan Q]

A bracket projection that has both IWU and Wheaton in...

http://www.mittensportsreport.com/2009/10/d3-bracketology.html

(With Anderson sitting at the Midwest table when the music stops.)

[Titan Q]

Bob,

Nice to see you tonight !!

You too, Mark.

[Titan Q]

See the frontpage.  The D3hoops.com crew projects both IWU and Wheaton in.  They have IWU heading to Wash U next weekend, facing Hope on Friday night, with the winner getting the Wash U/Westminster winner.  They have Wheaton at John Carroll, facing the host school in Round 1. 

One of my only disagreements with their bracket is the projection of John Carroll hosting over Wooster...I don't understand that one.  I completely agree with IWU getting sent to Wash U for a 4-team Rounds 1/2 pod.  It seems very likely the Titans will end up in St. Louis, facing someone other than Wash U in Round 1.  My initial thought was:

Wash U
Westminster

IWU
Central (Iowa)


I certainly haven't looked at the bracket as comprehensively as Pat and team though...geography becomes a huge factor in how it is constructed.

[Titan Q]

Looking at the D3hoops.com order of projected Pool C teams, I feel pretty good about my breakdown from last night.  I have a slightly different order, but it seems to shake out the same.

Again, my 3 tiers of Pool C candidates are:

(Teams within tiers are not listed in any order.)

First In
* St. Thomas
* St. John Fisher
* John Carroll
* MIT
* Eastern Mennonite
* Virginia Wesleyan
* Guilford/Randolph-Macon loser (2:30pm)
* UW-Whitewater
* Williams/Middlebury loser (11:00am)

Two teams that could join this list today with losses:

* Franklin & Marshall (hosts Gettysburg, 2:00pm)
* Texas-Dallas (@ Mary Hardin-Baylor, 2:00pm)

Second Tier (safely in)
* Richard Stockton
* Oneonta St
* Illinois Wesleyan
* Lycoming
* Colby
* Brandeis

The Bubble (4 spots available if F&M and Texas-Dallas both win)
* Rutgers-Newark
* Ithaca
* Calvin
* Thomas More
* Messiah
* Wheaton (IL)
* Anderson
* Austin
* UW-La Crosse

[Titan Q]

Live stats for those two huge bubble burster games today at 2:00pm...

F&M vs Gettysburg: http://livestats.prestosports.com/godiplomats/

Texas-Dallas @ Mary Hardin-Baylor: http://www.sidearmstats.com/mhb/mbball/index.htm

[usee]

It seems pat gives wheaton the nod at #13 pool C spot. Though their winning percentage is among the lowest their SOS is the highest and a strong regional record with a win over out of region Calvin. It gets interesting from here

[carthagealum]

Both of today's games appear to have live video:

F&M vs Gettysburg: http://www.b2livetv.com/partner_members.asp?id=15 (looks like there is a fee)

Texas-Dallas @ Mary Hardin-Baylor: http://www.collegetvticket.com/schedule.php (free to watch according to MH-B Web site, but registration required)