MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

A couple preview pieces from the Augie site...

http://www.augustana.edu/x22407.xml

http://www.augustana.edu/x22645.xml

Coach G: "I think that in terms of defensive play and rebounding, we could be as good as we have ever been. The question will be our ability to shoot from the perimeter."


Sorting through that information, it seems the rotation will be something like:

PG - Brian DeSimone, 6-1 Jr. (Drew Croegaert, 6-2 Sr.)
SG - Chris Anderson, 6-4 Jr. (Mike Avallone, 6-4 Sr.)
SF - Bryant Voiles, 6-9 Jr. (Troy Rorer, 6-2 Jr.)
PF - Brandon Kunz, 6-7 So. (Kameron Norton, 6-6 So.) (George Dexter, 6-7 So.)
C - Kyle Nelson, 6-9 Sr. (Luke Scarlata, 6-9 So.)

(Someone in the know can correct me if I'm off here.)

This team is going to be just physically ridiculous - that is about as big as it gets in Division III.  I can't even imagine how much Augie is going to out-rebound opponents by on the season.   (Last year they were +7 per game...and 4 of the posts were freshmen!)

As far as question marks, in addition to 3-point shooting (the Vikings shot just .317 last year), at this point I also question Augie's ability to defend the perimeter.  If they do start 6-4 Anderson at the 2 (more of a small forward I think) and 6-9 Voiles at the 3, will they be able to guard teams that run great perimeter shooters around screens and can really shoot it?  Or teams with really quick 2's and 3's that can get to the basket?  Last year Augie had Pelton and Rorer on the floor most of the time, and they could really defend the perimeter, as well as penetration.

As far as the rotation, I have 5 posts listed above.  When it's all said and done with, I wonder if one of the players in the Kunz/Norton/Dexter mix will end up out of the mix.  Depth is great, but sometimes it's not worth it to try to split 40 minutes up 3 ways.  IWU has this same kind of decision to make too actually - playing 4 posts or 5.  (At the 5, it seems like Nelson playing 28-30 minutes with Scarlata getting the other 10-12 is a perfect fit...Scarlata is a good low-post scorer just like Nelson is.)

It doesn't sound like any of the freshmen are in the mix:

Giovanine likes his recruiting class as well, saying "there will be a big upside with this bunch but we just don't need them to take as big a role as last year's group so we will be able to develop them more slowly."


Augie should be very good.  They play another great non-conf schedule, so we'll have a pretty good feel for them heading into CCIW play.

[Gregory Sager]

A couple preview pieces from the Augie site...

http://www.augustana.edu/x22407.xml

http://www.augustana.edu/x22645.xml

Coach G: "I think that in terms of defensive play and rebounding, we could be as good as we have ever been. The question will be our ability to shoot from the perimeter."


Sorting through that information, it seems the rotation will be something like:

PG - Brian DeSimone, 6-1 Jr. (Drew Croegaert, 6-2 Sr.)
SG - Chris Anderson, 6-4 Jr. (Mike Avallone, 6-4 Sr.)
SF - Bryant Voiles, 6-9 Jr. (Troy Rorer, 6-2 Jr.)
PF - Brandon Kunz, 6-7 So. (Kameron Norton, 6-6 So.) (George Dexter, 6-7 So.)
C - Kyle Nelson, 6-9 Sr. (Luke Scarlata, 6-9 So.)

(Someone in the know can correct me if I'm off here.)

That's pretty much how I'm reading the Augie tea leaves as well, Bob. Dan can correct us if he sees Grey leaning in another direction in terms of his rotation.

This team is going to be just physically ridiculous - that is about as big as it gets in Division III.  I can't even imagine how much Augie is going to out-rebound opponents by on the season.   (Last year they were +7 per game...and 4 of the posts were freshmen!)

Actually, Augie might not improve in the rebounding department. Part of the reason why I say that is because it's pretty tough to improve upon a +6.8 in the rebounding margin per game category. But mostly it's because the front line of the Doggies is so huge and so intimidating, and their perimeter defense so vulnerable by comparison at this point, that I foresee every Augustana opponent jacking up trey attempt after trey attempt, all game, every game. That means a lot of long rebounds, and quickness and anticipation rather than size is what garners long rebounds.

As far as question marks, in addition to 3-point shooting (the Vikings shot just .317 last year), at this point I also question Augie's ability to defend the perimeter.  If they do start 6-4 Anderson at the 2 (more of a small forward I think) and 6-9 Voiles at the 3, will they be able to guard teams that run great perimeter shooters around screens and can really shoot it?  Or teams with really quick 2's and 3's that can get to the basket?  Last year Augie had Pelton and Rorer on the floor most of the time, and they could really defend the perimeter, as well as penetration.

I completely agree, Bob. I've always seen perimeter defense as the heart of what Augie does on the basketball court, and the paradoxical aspect to this season for the Rock Islanders is that perimeter defense might be the weak spot of what otherwise is one of the most loaded teams Augie's fielded in the Giovanine era.

Tory Rorer might get a lot more playing time than any of us anticipates at the moment.

As far as the rotation, I have 5 posts listed above.  When it's all said and done with, I wonder if one of the players in the Kunz/Norton/Dexter mix will end up out of the mix.  Depth is great, but sometimes it's not worth it to try to split 40 minutes up 3 ways.

I agree with this assessment, too. And it's not a knock on the Kunz-Norton-Dexter triumvirate to speculate that one of them might be left out in the cold. On the other hand, injuries are pretty common among CCIW big men, and Augie usually tends to have more than its fair share of them, so the best way to look at this situation is that Grey Giovanine is one of three coaches in this league that appear to have great insurance policies with regard to their bigs, Ron Rose and Paul Brenegan being the other two.

Augie should be very good.  They play another great non-conf schedule, so we'll have a pretty good feel for them heading into CCIW play.

Augustana could end up playing the toughest schedule in all of D3 this season.

[dansand]

Q and Greg,

I think you both have a pretty good take on what to expect from Augie this year.

As far as I know, it looks like they plan on going with the lineup that Q listed. I think that's the one they used for the most part in China.

Greg makes an excellent point about the frontcourt depth being insurance against injuries. While I hope it's not the case this year, the reality is Augie hasn't had the best of luck healthwise recently. In three of the last four seasons they've lost a double-digit scorer for the year early in the season. But if everyone's healthy, I don't expect any of the big guys to fall out of the rotation. They can all play and each has a little different set of skills. Also, I wouldn't group them too strictly into positions. Although Kyle will obviously get most of the minutes, I think you could see any two of the five on the floor at a given time.

I don't get the impression that the coaching staff is too worried (any more than usual, anyway) about defending the perimeter. Voiles may give up some quickness to a smaller opponent, but I think the coaches are pretty confident that the problems he can cause with his length (and understanding of Augie's defensive scheme) will make up for that. Anderson's a great athlete. I think his transition to guard is more of a question mark on the offensive end than on defense. I'm pretty sure Troy Rorer will get plenty of minutes spelling them both.

[Titan Q]

http://qctimes.com/sports/college/augustana/article_74277de0-e175-11df-ac1a-001cc4c03286.html

Nelson, an all CCIW first-teamer and last year's leading scorer and rebounder as a junior, headlines the group.

A preseason honorable mention all-American selection, he is one of four returning starters from a 16-10 team but plans this year to be part of a never-ending wave of fresh and athletic big bodies.

"Our gameplan is to pound it inside and just make teams quit because we keep coming at them with big guys," he said. "Everybody is athletic and we all run hard. That's the most important thing. The effort level is going to be really high this year."

Certainly, Giovanine expects non-stop full-throttle ball.

"Hopefully, those guys will play short minutes with high energy and really spend themselves," he said. "We have talked about there is no reason to pace yourselves because nobody is going to play more than three or four minutes at a time.

"I hope that allows us to beat people down the floor on offense and allows us to play with great energy on defense. I hope when the ball is bouncing on the rim, we have a lot of hands on it. That's how we'll best take advantage of having the number of big guys we do."



http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=516132

"League is the best it's been since I've been here," said Giovanine. "This team some years would be picked to win the league going away."

[Titan Q]

With practice starting tomorrow, my best guess at IWU's top 10 heading in is...

PG - Travis Rosenkranz, 6-0 Sr (Eliud Gonzalez, 5-9 Jr)
SG - Sean Johnson, 6-1 Sr (Stephen Rudnicki, 6-3 Jr)
SF - Jordan Zimmer, 6-5 Jr (Matt Schick, 6-4 Sr)
PF - John Koschnitzky, 6-6 Jr (Kevin Reed, 6-7 So)
C - Doug Sexauer, 6-7 Sr (Ryan Connolly, 6-9 Jr)

(I'd probably have Dan Oswald included if healthy, but he's been dealing with knee problems.)


There is a talented group of players behind these guys ready to push for spots...especially at the PG, SG, SF, and PF reserve positions.  I'm interested to see how Ron Rose's rotation looks on November 15 (opener at Benedictine), and then on January 5 (first CCIW game, vs NCC).  

IWU suffered a pretty big blow yesterday in practice.  6-5 junior G/F Jordan Zimmer, a returning starter, broke his foot.  It sounds to me like the same break the caused John Koschnitzky to miss about 2 months last year, and also the same one that cost Sean Dwyer his entire freshman season.

Zimmer averaged 9.6 ppg last year and made 54 of 132 (.409) 3's.  He was huge in NCAA tournament wins over Central and Wash U (rounds 1 & 2).  It's definitely a significant setback for the Titans.  From watching 3 practices a couple weeks ago, I really felt like Jordan Zimmer was poised for a big junior year.

The good news is that IWU still has 3 returning all-CCIW players (Sexauer, Johnson, Rosenkranz) and some good options for replacing Zimmer in the starting lineup.  My best guess is that Ron Rose will move John Koschnitzky back to the 3 (where he is very comfortable) and insert another 4 (the 4 is where IWU has the most depth).  That is completely a guess though.

I have not heard when Zimmer is expected back, but having seen this same kind of injury several times, I'd guess mid-January.  The problem, though, is that it takes a long time to get back in shape and into the flow after something like this.  John Koschnitzky was really never quite right last season after he returned.

[Titan Q]

Greg makes an excellent point about the frontcourt depth being insurance against injuries.

Unfortunately IWU has to submit a claim already.

[augiefan]

Thanks to Dansand for a quality analysis of Augie's prospects. Nobody on this board knows the QC Vikings better.

Augie is a team with great potential, but the CCIW is loaded this year with IWU and Carthage being potential FF teams and Wheaton and NPU looking very good. Lack of PG experience and offense across the board at the guard position is Augie's Achille's heel, unless someone surprises, and that is what keeps therm a tier below IWU and Carthage going into the season. If a freshman contributes at Augie it will most likely be at the SG position.

For all CCIW teams let's hope for a season free of major injuries. One likes to see the teams compete at full strength, so that truly the best team wins.

[AndOne]

North Central will scrimmage against Concordia Thurs evening 10/28 at 6:30. Two rows of chairs on the NCC side of the table?

[AndOne]

With practice starting tomorrow, my best guess at IWU's top 10 heading in is...

PG - Travis Rosenkranz, 6-0 Sr (Eliud Gonzalez, 5-9 Jr)
SG - Sean Johnson, 6-1 Sr (Stephen Rudnicki, 6-3 Jr)
SF - Jordan Zimmer, 6-5 Jr (Matt Schick, 6-4 Sr)
PF - John Koschnitzky, 6-6 Jr (Kevin Reed, 6-7 So)
C - Doug Sexauer, 6-7 Sr (Ryan Connolly, 6-9 Jr)

(I'd probably have Dan Oswald included if healthy, but he's been dealing with knee problems.)


There is a talented group of players behind these guys ready to push for spots...especially at the PG, SG, SF, and PF reserve positions.  I'm interested to see how Ron Rose's rotation looks on November 15 (opener at Benedictine), and then on January 5 (first CCIW game, vs NCC).  

IWU suffered a pretty big blow yesterday in practice.  6-5 junior G/F Jordan Zimmer, a returning starter, broke his foot.  It sounds to me like the same break the caused John Koschnitzky to miss about 2 months last year, and also the same one that cost Sean Dwyer his entire freshman season.

Zimmer averaged 9.6 ppg last year and made 54 of 132 (.409) 3's.  He was huge in NCAA tournament wins over Central and Wash U (rounds 1 & 2).  It's definitely a significant setback for the Titans.  From watching 3 practices a couple weeks ago, I really felt like Jordan Zimmer was poised for a big junior year.

The good news is that IWU still has 3 returning all-CCIW players (Sexauer, Johnson, Rosenkranz) and some good options for replacing Zimmer in the starting lineup.  My best guess is that Ron Rose will move John Koschnitzky back to the 3 (where he is very comfortable) and insert another 4 (the 4 is where IWU has the most depth).  That is completely a guess though.

I have not heard when Zimmer is expected back, but having seen this same kind of injury several times, I'd guess mid-January.  The problem, though, is that it takes a long time to get back in shape and into the flow after something like this.  John Koschnitzky was really never quite right last season after he returned.

With Zimmer out, I wonder if Wesleyan's best lineup might be to leave John K at the 4 and play either Dan Schouten or Duncan Lawson at the 3. Lawson is a 6'8" player whose background includes playing exclusively on the perimeter in HS and being a 3 point specialist. I think he has developed a bit of a mid-range game at IWU, but the 3 is his natural position, and shooting the 3 may be what he does best. Schouten is a better interior player and rebounder than Lawson but can also hit a nice percentage from long distance. The question concerning Dan is whether he is fully recovered from 2 shoulder surgeries. He didn't appear to be suffering from any obvious limitations this summer.

One IWU player that has not been mentioned much, especially in light of the amount of time he has played over the past seasons is Edmund O'Callaghan. His stock seems to have taken a downturn and it appears to an outside observer that he has fallen behind Ryan Connolly and now, perhaps Nick Anderson. Never a big scorer, O'Callaghan has been a good rebounder. Over the last couple of regular season games and continuing through the playoffs last year he saw almost no PT. Perhaps he was injured?

[AndOne]

Millikin roster and schedule...

http://www.millikin.edu/sites/athletics/mbasketball/Pages/Roster.aspx

http://www.millikin.edu/sites/athletics/Pages/SportSchedule.aspx?TeamID=Men's%20Basketball


I don't see Colby Long (8.7 ppg, 22-51 3-pt, .431) on the 2010-11 roster.  I thought he might be Millikin's best player this year.

Also, the Big Blue won't have a lot of size; the 6'6 Taylor and 6'7 freshman Urbane Dunlap (my new favorite CCIW name) are the only players listed who are taller than 6'4. That's nothing new for Millikin, of course; over the past dozen seasons the Big Blue have had a tendency to be pretty small by CCIW standards. But it'll make for a really interesting dynamic when MU faces Augie.

Greg----

I'd like to nominate NCC frosh C.J. Goldthree as a possible contender for your favorite name status. The name might be especially appealing if he turns out to be a good marksman from downtown.

[AndOne]

OK, since he's expecting it and nobody else has brought it up yet, I'll be the first:

Gee, Bob, only four Titans?  Nice show of restraint for not picking seven or eight of them.

As far as your picks are concerned, I think that they're mostly sound. I do disagree with a few of them, though. My observations:

* I'm not sure that Emanuel Crosby is going to be a second-teamer. That's not because he won't be good; in fact, I'm pretty sure that he'll be a more accomplished player at both ends of the floor than he was last season. However, the remarkable comeback of Phil Schniedermeier from his ACL tear last December is going to impact Crosby's playing time and numbers. It's one of those situations in which something that benefits the team -- having two high-caliber centers that'll give NPU forty minutes a game of strong production in the low post -- will somewhat impede the individual players concerned in terms of their personal accolades.

* Ro Russell is going to be an All-CCIW player this year. I'm pretty sure of that. Actually, I should qualify my statement a bit; whether Russell makes the team or not will likely be contingent upon NPU's success (or lack thereof) in CCIW games, but I'm very confident that at minimum he will play at a level that'll force the coaches to take him seriously as a candidiate. His defense is vastly improved, and he seems to have settled into his new role as a more distribution-oriented type of point guard.

* I find it very difficult to believe that Wheaton will not get its customary two slots on the All-CCIW team. Andrew Jahns, a steady if not spectacular performer who basically carried water for Kent Raymond and Ben Panner over the first three years of his career, will finally have a chance to shine in his own right. He's the most likely candidate, but Jeremy Pflederer could be the alternative guard to emerge as Tim McCrary's complementary scorer.

* Zack Boyd's a pretty good player and the most likely candidate to represent the Bluejays on the All-CCIW squad -- Sean Fendley seems to be the best alternative available at this point -- but I think that Elmhurst will only get a token third-team slot.

* If Millikin gets anybody on the team at all, I'm pretty sure it'll be Rodney Clark.

* I'm still waiting to hear from someone at Carthage as to whether or not Tyler Pierce is in game shape.

Additional observations----

As far as I'm concerned, the less I see of Emanuel Crosby the better. I thought he was terrific last year. Phil is is a good player, but sometimes he tries to do to much and plays outside of his comfort zone. As such, he is more prone to mistakes/TOs than is Crosby who knows his bread and butter is to establish good low position, call for the ball, relentlessly back his defender down, and then lay it up and in having cleared the way like an out of control bulldozer.

I think Boyd's chances will be hurt by the fact he won't be able to showcase his talents as much as history shows us Fendley will no doubt take a substantial number of the shots that would have been Boyd's. When Fendley is on the floor, its shoot first and everything else is an afterthought.

Not sure if the Bosko Healthy Eating Plan has had much of an effect yet, but this summer Pierce looked to be just a biscuit or two short of at least 250. He was certainly nowhere near the 230 he is listed as on the CC roster. If Pierce is at, or can get to his desired playing weight, he is another almost unstoppable force.

[Titan Q]

With Zimmer out, I wonder if Wesleyan's best lineup might be to leave John K at the 4 and play either Dan Schouten or Duncan Lawson at the 3. Lawson is a 6'8" player whose background includes playing exclusively on the perimeter in HS and being a 3 point specialist. I think he has developed a bit of a mid-range game at IWU, but the 3 is his natural position, and shooting the 3 may be what he does best. Schouten is a better interior player and rebounder than Lawson but can also hit a nice percentage from long distance. The question concerning Dan is whether he is fully recovered from 2 shoulder surgeries. He didn't appear to be suffering from any obvious limitations this summer.

One IWU player that has not been mentioned much, especially in light of the amount of time he has played over the past seasons is Edmund O'Callaghan. His stock seems to have taken a downturn and it appears to an outside observer that he has fallen behind Ryan Connolly and now, perhaps Nick Anderson. Never a big scorer, O'Callaghan has been a good rebounder. Over the last couple of regular season games and continuing through the playoffs last year he saw almost no PT. Perhaps he was injured?

I think it's fair to say the Zimmer injury has brought every guy who plays the 2-5 into the picture.  I can't see Ron Rose inserting another PG (like Eliud Gonzalez), but he could easily go with another wing player to replace Zimmer, or could move Koschnitzky to the wing and a) go with a PF, or b) move Sexauer to the 4 and insert a 5.  (If Koschnitzky and Lawson both start, I'd call Kosch more the 3 and Lawson the 4...but just a matter of semantics.  But sure, I assume Lawson is in the mix.)

Regarding O'Callaghan, my take is that before the CCIW tournament last year, Rose just simply wanted to go a different direction style-wise.  He inserted a more versatile player than O'Callaghan into the starting lineup - John Koschnitzky (who was a starter early in the year but suffered a broken foot in game 2).  And he decided to stay more "versatile" when he went to the bench at the 4 with Duncan Lawson, while using Ryan Connolly to back up Sexauer at the 5.  That left O'Callaghan out of the mix.  Obviously it's hard to argue with the results as that lineup played very well during the CCIW and NCAA tournaments.  I think right now Edmond is behind Sexauer and Connolly at the 5 (and in front of freshman Nick Anderson).

[Titan Q]

On Zimmer injury...

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/men/article_034bbe88-e242-11df-8257-001cc4c03286.html

Also note:

Rose also said sophomore guard Dan Oswald is likely to sit out the entire season with severe knee tendinitis.


Coming into the season, I know the coaching staff saw Oswald playing a lot this year off the bench...he may have been the logical replacement for Zimmer if healthy.

[Titan Q]

Remember, CCIW online chat starting at 11:00am today (with preseason poll released at the end)...

http://www.cciw.org/news/2010/10/22/MBB_1022102042.aspx

[hopefan]

indeed Urbane Dunlap and CJ Goldthree may merit consideration for All name All CCIW, but they pale in comparison to a fellow being discussed in the GSAC room... truly an All Name All American...   Prettyboi Knuckles.....