MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[markerickson]

Greg:  if he had such a "phenomenal" game, then why did he play less than half of the entire game (18 minutes)?  I'll remind you, Hoekstra led the league in trey percentage last year.  With Nick Williams gone, North Park needs to rely on Hoekstra to bury some treys.  You have a good point about the D in the second half, and yes that was great.  North Park's leading scorer last night had 12 points, the only guy in double figures.  NP should have blown out the undersized and outmanned slide rule gang.

I may have been a bit harsh about the Vikings' opening loss to Concordia.  I bought the media guide last night.  It states that CU returned all five starters from a team that finished above .500.

[usee]

Q,

Thanks for the thorough analysis. Unfortunately, its far more formulaic and quantitative than my small mind can handle. Are we in good shape, bad shape or still too early to call shape as a conference? Seems like, if we hit your predictions, we fall in the "good" category(.578)? am I reading this right?

[markerickson]

Oh yeah, MSOE scored the same number of points from behind as in front of the arc while shooting nearly 50% from behind it.

[iwumichigander]

Ah, yes - those over-heated temps!   I used to wear several layers to go to games, be down to a t-shirt before halftime, then bundle back up to walk home!  If the 'powers-that-be' were smart, they probably shut off the heat in the fieldhouse once the crowds had arrived!

While I usually stuck to the bleachers, I went up to the weight-lifting area (above the north basket) a few times.  Good memories.

Em - actually the thermostat may have been turned up a notch or two prior to "big" games.  Those over heated temps and humidity was perceived as a 'competitive advantage'.  Visitors found it difficult to mount a run in the last five minutes when gasping for oxygen and fighting leg cramps!

[Titan Q]

Q,

Thanks for the thorough analysis. Unfortunately, its far more formulaic and quantitative than my small mind can handle. Are we in good shape, bad shape or still too early to call shape as a conference? Seems like, if we hit your predictions, we fall in the "good" category(.578)? am I reading this right?

Don't be so hard on yourself, my friend.  I've always considered you to be very smart...for a football guy.

Actually I'm saying that the average CCIW team will only be in "decent" shape...

So let's assume A+C games = 122-122 (.500).  The impact of various B records then is...

* 28-28 (.500) = 150-150 (.500)
* 34-22 (.607) = 156-144 (.520)
* 39-17 (.696) = 161-139 (.536)
* 45-11 (.803) = 167-133 (.557)

Regarding Selection Sunday OWP, relative to teams across the country I'd say...

.450 - .499 = Poor
.500 - .549 = Decent
.550 - .599 = Good
.600+ = Excellent

Per above, if the league finishes at .600 in non-conference, in-region games, the average CCIW team will have an OWP of only .520 or so.  Now, again, this assumes non-conference opponents cumulatively go .500.  I do think some CCIW teams have a chance to get a much better record than that out of their non-conference opponents.  Augie and Wheaton in particular - I think several of their in-region, non-conference opponents have a great chance to do very well in their respective leagues.

By "decent" I guess I mean not "bad", but also not good enough to help, or to create a competitive advantage vs other teams.  Typically a "power conference" creates a big OWP advantage for individual members by collectively racking up a great in-region, non-conference record.  Unfortunately, the CCIW is not going to do that in 2010-11.

FYI, the Selection Sunday OWP's of the CCIW's 3 NCAA tournament teams last year:

Carthage = .566
Illinois Wesleyan = .571
Wheaton = .557

[KnightSlappy]

Obviously, playing a strong in-region, non-conference schedule - in other words, playing "C" opponents who will finish at, say, .600 instead of .500 - makes a huge difference since 53% of the typical OWP calculation is derived from these games.  Just for perspective, current in-region records of the opponents of 3 select CCIW teams:

* IWU: 22-21 (.512) 
Benedictine (3-2), Aurora (3-4), Ripon (5-0), Monmouth (1-4), Dominican (5-3), Webster (2-1), Chicago (1-6), MacMurray (2-1)

* Augustana: 16-16 (.500) 
Simpson (3-3), Wash U (4-3), Anderson (5-1), Monmouth (1-4), Buena Vista (3-5)

* Wheaton: 15-17 (.469)
Manchester (3-2), UWW (4-2), Loras (2-5), Chicago (2-5), Hope (0-0), Wash U (4-3)

Q,
The individual OWP components should be averaged, not summed. What I mean is that if you played two teams: (1-0) and (0-9), your OWP is .500, not .100.

So, based on your example above, IWU would have an OWP of .541, Augustana would be 0.499, and Wheaton would be .482 (? not really sure how to treat Hope's 0-0, I just ignored it).

So let's assume A+C games = 122-122 (.500).  The impact of various B records then is...

* 28-28 (.500) = 150-150 (.500)
* 34-22 (.607) = 156-144 (.520)
* 39-17 (.696) = 161-139 (.536)
* 45-11 (.803) = 167-133 (.557)
Regarding Selection Sunday OWP, relative to teams across the country I'd say...

.450 - .499 = Poor
.500 - .549 = Decent
.550 - .599 = Good
.600+ = Excellent

And this table becomes:

B = .500 -- OWP = .500
B = .607 -- OWP = .534
B = .696 -- OWP = .562
B = .803 -- OWP = .596

A little bit more optimistic for the CCIW.

[John Gleich]

That's some really interesting stuff Q.  Nice job breaking it down!  It will be interesting to see how much of an impact the collective group has on individual team's chances at a pool C bid and how much of an impact these November and December games really have.

I read on another board that the NCAA is going to do a home vs. away multiplier... do you know if that is regarding the OWP and OOWP, or is it a different criterion altogether?

[Gregory Sager]

Greg:  if he had such a "phenomenal" game, then why did he play less than half of the entire game (18 minutes)?

That's for Paul Brenegan to answer, not me. But keep in mind that he's playing twelve players at the moment. That shortens everybody's minutes.

The fact that Kendell Greer only played 18 minutes does not detract at all from the great game that he played.

I'll remind you, Hoekstra led the league in trey percentage last year. With Nick Williams gone, North Park needs to rely on Hoekstra to bury some treys.

I'm well aware of Nick Hoekstra's achievements, and of the fact that he is NPU's most reliable outside shooter. However, Greer is a better defender, and the primary mission of the Vikings on Monday night was to defensively contain Austin Meier. Plus, as I said yesterday Greer made all three of his trey attempts against MSOE. He's no slouch at the offensive end of the floor.

You have a good point about the D in the second half, and yes that was great. North Park's leading scorer last night had 12 points, the only guy in double figures.

Does it matter? The Vikings outscored MSOE by eleven. They posted 47 points, a season high for a half, in the second stanza. All twelve players who played for NPU scored.

North Park is most likely not going to have anybody post gaudy scoring stats in 2010-11. It's a team that scores by committee. Paul Brenegan plays a lot of different players, and the scoring is spread around amongst all of them. There's two schools of thought on that. One is that a lot of players all posting modest scoring stats is good, because it means that there's a lot of potential scorers on the floor at any given time, and your opponent can't stop everybody. The other is that you need two or three established threats who post big numbers, guys who know that it's their role to fill up the basket every night and who will be looked to by everybody to have the ball in their hands at crunch time.

I've seen both doctrines used with success, and I've seen both doctrines fail. As is the case with a lot of basketball theory, there's no one right answer for how to distribute your scoring.

NP should have blown out the undersized and outmanned slide rule gang.

All I can say is that you have a seriously distorted view of Monday's game, Mark. Let me repeat: MSOE came into the game with a 7-1 record. Two of the seven wins that the Raiders had recorded were over WIAC teams. And they had one of the best players that the NPU gym is going to see all year in Austin Meier. Know why the Raiders looked "outmanned"? It's because the Vikings made them look outmanned in the second half. To say that NPU thus should've blown them out is to draw the wrong conclusion from North Park's great effort in the final twenty minutes.

I may have been a bit harsh about the Vikings' opening loss to Concordia.  I bought the media guide last night.  It states that CU returned all five starters from a team that finished above .500.

... a fact which I posted here before that game, and I may even have posted it afterwards as well.

NPU still should've won that game.

Oh yeah, MSOE scored the same number of points from behind as in front of the arc while shooting nearly 50% from behind it.

You're pretty generous in calling 43.5% "nearly 50%." Nevertheless, the two points I made still stand: 1) MSOE attempted more treys than usual (the Raiders attempted 23; their season average coming into the game for trey attempts was 18.9) because the Vikings did such a good job of shutting down their first option, which is Meier on the inside; and 2) NPU held the Raiders to 30% shooting from beyond the arc in the second half, in spite of the fact that the Raiders came into the game averaging 36% from long range.

[Titan Q]

D3 dunk of the year?  Shane Manor, UW-River Falls...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVosXPqplA4


The WIAC produced one of the best last year as well.  Dan Tillema, UW-Stevens Point (vs Elmhurst)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K5Oui2d9E8

[Titan Q]

Obviously, playing a strong in-region, non-conference schedule - in other words, playing "C" opponents who will finish at, say, .600 instead of .500 - makes a huge difference since 53% of the typical OWP calculation is derived from these games.  Just for perspective, current in-region records of the opponents of 3 select CCIW teams:

* IWU: 22-21 (.512) 
Benedictine (3-2), Aurora (3-4), Ripon (5-0), Monmouth (1-4), Dominican (5-3), Webster (2-1), Chicago (1-6), MacMurray (2-1)

* Augustana: 16-16 (.500) 
Simpson (3-3), Wash U (4-3), Anderson (5-1), Monmouth (1-4), Buena Vista (3-5)

* Wheaton: 15-17 (.469)
Manchester (3-2), UWW (4-2), Loras (2-5), Chicago (2-5), Hope (0-0), Wash U (4-3)

Q,
The individual OWP components should be averaged, not summed. What I mean is that if you played two teams: (1-0) and (0-9), your OWP is .500, not .100.

So, based on your example above, IWU would have an OWP of .541, Augustana would be 0.499, and Wheaton would be .482 (? not really sure how to treat Hope's 0-0, I just ignored it).

So let's assume A+C games = 122-122 (.500).  The impact of various B records then is...

* 28-28 (.500) = 150-150 (.500)
* 34-22 (.607) = 156-144 (.520)
* 39-17 (.696) = 161-139 (.536)
* 45-11 (.803) = 167-133 (.557)
Regarding Selection Sunday OWP, relative to teams across the country I'd say...

.450 - .499 = Poor
.500 - .549 = Decent
.550 - .599 = Good
.600+ = Excellent

And this table becomes:

B = .500 -- OWP = .500
B = .607 -- OWP = .534
B = .696 -- OWP = .562
B = .803 -- OWP = .596

A little bit more optimistic for the CCIW.

Thanks Knight!

For those who have not checked it out, KnightSlappy runs a Calvin basketball blog where he regularly tracks the national Pool C picture (including in-region winning %, OWP, etc)...

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/

Great stuff.

[Titan Q]

UW-Whitewater @ Augie live stats...

http://www.augustana.edu/athletics/mbasketball/xlive.htm

[Mr. Ypsi]

Augie holds on to a 70-64 win.

[Titan Q]

A story on IWU's Sean Johnson from a local TV station...

http://centralillinoisproud.com/fulltext?nxd_id=152127

[AndOne]

 
77 degrees right now on the beach at Waikiki as the NCC Cardinals move today from Honolulu, where they've been since Sunday, to Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii where they will face D2 Hawaii-Hilo tomorrow evening.   

[dansand]

I thought North Central was supposed to play Ric Wesley's Grand Valley State team this year. What ever became of that?