MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

North Central (10-2) finishes up next week against North Park (@ NPU) and Millikin (@ NCC), so it's pretty academic that the Cards will win the CCIW despite being swept by Wheaton.

Wheaton (9-3) finishes up at home against NPU and Augie, so, with both games remaining being scheduled for King Arena, the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance has the inside track on second place. Wheaton has the tiebreaker over IWU by virtue of having swept NCC, which swept IWU. The tiebreaker with Augie will depend upon that final game between the two teams, to be played a week from Tuesday; an Augie win gives the Doggies the series sweep over Wheaton and, thus, the tiebreaker. A Wheaton win creates a split between the two teams and would thus force the tiebreaker to revert to Wheaton for the same reason that the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance owns the tiebreaker over IWU: Wheaton's 2-0 against the Cardinals, while Augie's 0-2 against the Cardinals.

Augie (8-4) has to go to Carthage on Tuesday; Carthage no longer has anything to play for but pride, but you know darn well that Bosko would like nothing better than to stick it to his old pal Grey by forcing him into the #4 @ #1 matchup versus NCC in the opening round of the tourney at the airplane hangar. Augie then ends the season by going to King Arena to face Wheaton in the game that got moved back to the Tuesday of tournament week. It's a tough final pair of games for the Doggies, no matter how you slice it.

Wesleyan (8-4) gets to feast on Millikin at Griswold on Tuesday, and then ends the regular season by hosting Elmhurst. Given that final-week schedule, I'd say that the Titans have the inside track over Augie on getting the #3 seed and avoiding having to play North Central in the opening round of the tournament.

[Gregory Sager]

Everyone always makes a big fuss over the fact that it's been forty years since the CCIW had a team go undefeated in league play, but this now makes ten straight years in which everyone's lost at least two CCIW games. Carthage's Final Four team in 2001-02 was the last CCIW squad to go 13-1 in league play, and it's the only team over the past fourteen years that's managed to get through the CCIW sked with only one loss.

Even though the bottom really fell out of the league this year, the teams at the top are always competitive enough to ensure that nobody gets out of the steel cage without taking a couple of blows to the chin.

[CCIWchamps]

Is anyone able to recap the WC-NCC game?

[WheatonFanChris]

Maybe I could find this out with some research... But does anyone know off the top of their heads the scenario if teams 2-4 are all 10-4 after next Tuesday?

[Titan Q]

IWU 69
Carthage 64

* John Koschnitzky: 14 pts, 4 reb
* Jordan Zimmer: 12 pts, 4 reb
* Andrew Ziemnik: 11 pts, 3 reb
* Eliud Gonzalez: 10 pts, 7 reb, 5 assists

* Malcom Kelly: 23 pts, 5 reb
* Max Cary: 13 pts


Strange game really...

- 1st 12:00 + last 8:00 = Carthage 46 IWU 26
- 20:00 in the middle = IWU 43 Carthage 18


Carthage does not match up very well with IWU and the Titans exploited that in a big way for about 20 minutes.  IWU is just so much more physical than Carthage, with guys like John Koschnitzky, Victor Davis, and Andrew Ziemnik causing a lot of trouble for the Red Men. 

That 43-18 IWU run was too much for the Red Men to come back from, even though things got very interesting in the final minutes.  Once IWU opened up the 16-point lead with 8:00 to play I thought the Titans just got way too conservative offensively...they were almost trying to run clock at that point.  Then in the final 4:00 or so, IWU had a lot of trouble with the Carthage press - several turnovers.

Good to clinch the CCIW tournament spot.  Congrats to Ron Rose on win #100.

[thunder38]

Is anyone able to recap the WC-NCC game?

On it!!

IMO, the Hardwood Battle for the Bell Round 2 somehow was able to top the 2OT thriller these two teams had at King a couple of weeks ago.  Wheaton led by 7 early 16-9 and that was the biggest lead of the game.  Wheaton controlled the game in the first half with some nice shooting and ball control.  Six ties during the first half alone but zero lead changes.  Only two shots in the first half for Derek Raridon as he was locked down by a combination of Tyler Peters and Jon DeMoss off the bench.  Wheaton led 34-32.

Second half was a lot of the same as the game swung between two and four points seemingly forever before Wheaton stretched it out to 54-48 with about six and change left.  NCC went on a quick 4-0 before a McCrary jumper sent us back to the two and four swing.  NCC took their first lead of the night with 2:06 remaining when CJ Goldthree had a breakaway lay-in that turned into a three-point play to put the Cards up 59-56.  That would be NCC's last field goal of the night.  That lasted about 20 seconds or so before Jeremy Pflederer drained a three from the corner to tie the game.  The game stayed that way until about 40 seconds left with Aaron Garriott pulled the trigger on a deep 3 from straight away to put Wheaton up 62-59.  Derek Raridon missed an open three from the corner on the ensuing possession and Wheaton grabbed the rebound.  Peters missed the front end of the 1 and 1 and Goldthree missed a jumper before Peters hit two free throws to make it a five point game.  Goldthree had two FTs with 4.9 remaining to make it three point.  Peters missed the front end again but McCrary made a smart play by tipping the ball into the abandoned corner to run another three seconds off the clock.  NCC had a heave at the buzzer by Gillespie that didn't make it close.

Wheaton's last win at the hangar came eight years to the day of their last victory in Naperville.

Peters had 17 points and 7 rebounds with 4 assists
McCrary had a pedestrian night with 12 points and 8 boards
Pflederer also had 10

Gamble was a monster tonight with 19 points
Goldthree had 15 thanks to a 10-11 showing from the charity stripe
Tiknis had 12 points

Wheaton shot 48% from the field with 43% from three and had only eight turnovers
NCC was 45% and 26% from deep with six TOs

Incredibly well played games for both teams that felt like a tournament game from the beginning.  The Hangar was electric from the opening tip with both student sections having a nice showing and being very vocal.  The game was tied 9 different times with the only two lead changes.  Wheaton was leading rebounding 13-1 at one point in the first half and ended up winning the boards totals 33-23 with 12 offensive rebounds.

[Titan Q]

Maybe I could find this out with some research... But does anyone know off the top of their heads the scenario if teams 2-4 are all 10-4 after next Tuesday?

Here are the CCIW's tie-breaker rules...

1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Record against team(s) above the tie beginning with the highest ranked team.
3. Record vs. team or teams in 3 rd place. If still tied, go to the next place for determination, et cetera.
4. Road record against conference schools.
5. Record in their last seven conference games.
6. The point spread of the tied teams' head-to head competition.
7. Coin toss

"Head to Head should be interpreted as the cumulative record of head to head records between all the tied teams. In the case of a tie involving more than two teams, the tiebreaker criteria should be used to remove one team before going back to the original criteria (at the start) and attempting to break the teams that remain tied.  For example, when separating Teams A, B and C, which finished tied, the cumulative head to head records should be used.  In this case, the tiebreaker criteria may remove one team (Team C for example) from contention.  At that point, the process starts over with the applicable tiebreaker criteria when attempting to break the tie between Teams A and B."
----------
So check me on this, but I think this goes...

If Augustana, IWU, and Wheaton all finish 10-4 (by virtue of Augie winning @ Wheaton), the cumulative records vs the teams in this tie would be (tie-breaker rule #1):

* Augie = 3-1
* IWU = 2-2
* Wheaton = 1-3

So that removes Augie from the 3-way tie, and we are left with...

1. North Central
2. Augustana
T3. IWU
T3. Wheaton

When evaluating IWU vs Wheaton, we first look at head-to-head (tie-breaker rule #1)...which is a split.

Using tie-breaker rule #2, Wheaton is 2-0 vs North Central while IWU is 0-2.  So Wheaton wins the tie with IWU and the seeds would be:

1. North Central
2. Augustana
3. Wheaton
4. Illinois Wesleyan


Kind of makes your head hurt doing this tie-breaker stuff, so let me know if I'm off here.

[Titan Q]

If Wheaton protects homecourt vs Augie, and all other games go according to form, we would finish:

1. North Central: 12-2
2. Wheaton: 11-3
3. Illinois Wesleyan: 10-4
4. Augustana: 9-5


Obviously no tie-breakers needed...

#1 NCC vs #4 Augustana
#2 Wheaton vs #3 Illinois Wesleyan


So as a fan, you have to determine who you want to face in the tournament when settling on your rooting allegiance for the Tuesday, Feb 21 Augie @ Wheaton game.  (Again, that game isn't until Tuesday of conference tournament week due to Augie's academic calendar situation.)

Honestly, I feel like these teams are so darn even I don't really even care how the seeding turns out.  I know it should be better for the Titans to play in a 2/3 neutral court game, but I'm not sure I can honestly say there are better odds of winning on Friday in that scenario, vs facing NCC on their floor (which the Titans did last year...and won).

With these 4 teams, absolutely anything could happen in that tournament.  NCC has played the best during the conference season, and will come out the #1 seed, but I just don't see much separation at all in this field.  The difference in the final standings among these 4 teams is going to end up being a few bounces of the basketball, a few good/bad breaks, a few plays late.  There is usually way more separation between 1 and 4 in a league than this.

[Titan Q]

These would be the Selection Sunday in-region records for the CCIW's top 4 assuming two things - 2-0 record during the final 2 CCIW games (and note, these four obviously can't all go 2-0 the rest of the way) AND 1-1 in conference tournament (and obviously only one team is actually going to to 1-1)...

Augustana: 17-5 currently + 3-1 = 20-6 (.769)
Wheaton: 16-5 currently + 3-1 = 19-6 (.760)
North Central: 15-5 currently + 3-1 = 18-6 (.750)
Illinois Wesleyan: 15-6 currently + 3-1 = 18-7 (.720)


In-region strength of schedule is another huge Pool C metric (IWU got in due to a big strength of schedule # last year - .543).  SOS data through last weekend:

Illinois Wesleyan = 0.578
Wheaton = 0.536
North Central = 0.504
Augustana = 0.471


http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankings&sportCode=MBB&region=35&division=3


To put IWU's 0.578 in-region SOS in perspective, of all the teams regionally ranked last week, only 7 have a better number than IWU: 

UW-Stevens Point (West) = 0.614
Amherst (Northeast) = .605
WPI (Northeast) = 0.600
Rhode Island (Northeast) = 0.598
Wash U (Midwest) = 0.589
St. Mary's, MD (Mid-Atlantic) = 0.581
St. Thomas (West) = 0.580

On the flip side, Augustana's SOS is extremely low.

And for context, the in-region records and strength of schedule numbers for the 18 Pool C's selected last year...

Here is my best guess at the order the Pool C's were selected...

1. Williams (NE): .920/.558
2. Concordia (MW): .875/.501
3. WPI (NE): .846/.516
4. Virginia Wesleyan (S): .840/.506
5. Penn St-Behrend (GL): .885/.481
6. Oswego St (E): .852/.507
7. Becker (NE): .852/.505
8. Ramapo (Atl): .826/.507
9. Gwynedd-Mercy (Mid-Atl): .800/.502
10. Amherst (NE): .875/.464
11. UW-River Falls (W): .750/.585
12. Ithaca (E): .760/.547
13. Mary Hardin-Baylor (S): .750/.508
14. Western Conn (NE): .800/.531
15. Hanover (MW): .731/.542
16. Wittenberg (GL): .727/.552
17. Texas-Dallas (S): .800/.485
18. Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543


Left on the board, in the order of selection competitiveness (by my estimation):

* Carleton (W): .750/.528
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499
* Edgewood (MW): .692/.547
* Stevens (E): .731/.512
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526


(Obviously I have just listed winning % and SOS above.)

At the end of the day, this will all come down to how the Midwest committee lines the team up, and where the CCIW's Pool C candidates stand vs other Pool C's in the region.  Last week (games through Sunday) the order was:

1   Washington U.   15-4   15-5
2   Transylvania   18-1   19-2
3   Lake Forest   17-2   18-2
4   Wheaton (Ill.)   15-4   17-4
5   North Central (Ill.)   14-4   15-6
6   Illinois Wesleyan   14-5   16-5
7   Edgewood   14-5   16-5
8   Concordia (Wis.)   15-4   16-4

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2012/02/08/2012-ncaa-regional-rankings-week-1/


Again, keep rooting for...

* Wash U to win the UAA (no conf tournament)
* Transylvania to win the HCAC conf tournament
* Lake Forest to win the MWC conf tournament


I'm confident that if none of those 3 need Pool C's that the CCIW will definitely get 1 Pool C, and will have a decent chance to get a 2nd as well down near the end of the bubble.  But if one of more in the Wash U/Transylvania/Lake Forest group needs a Pool C, things get a little dicey for the CCIW.

[CCIWchamps]

Is anyone able to recap the WC-NCC game?

On it!!

IMO, the Hardwood Battle for the Bell Round 2 somehow was able to top the 2OT thriller these two teams had at King a couple of weeks ago.  Wheaton led by 7 early 16-9 and that was the biggest lead of the game.  Wheaton controlled the game in the first half with some nice shooting and ball control.  Six ties during the first half alone but zero lead changes.  Only two shots in the first half for Derek Raridon as he was locked down by a combination of Tyler Peters and Jon DeMoss off the bench.  Wheaton led 34-32.

Second half was a lot of the same as the game swung between two and four points seemingly forever before Wheaton stretched it out to 54-48 with about six and change left.  NCC went on a quick 4-0 before a McCrary jumper sent us back to the two and four swing.  NCC took their first lead of the night with 2:06 remaining when CJ Goldthree had a breakaway lay-in that turned into a three-point play to put the Cards up 59-56.  That would be NCC's last field goal of the night.  That lasted about 20 seconds or so before Jeremy Pflederer drained a three from the corner to tie the game.  The game stayed that way until about 40 seconds left with Aaron Garriott pulled the trigger on a deep 3 from straight away to put Wheaton up 62-59.  Derek Raridon missed an open three from the corner on the ensuing possession and Wheaton grabbed the rebound.  Peters missed the front end of the 1 and 1 and Goldthree missed a jumper before Peters hit two free throws to make it a five point game.  Goldthree had two FTs with 4.9 remaining to make it three point.  Peters missed the front end again but McCrary made a smart play by tipping the ball into the abandoned corner to run another three seconds off the clock.  NCC had a heave at the buzzer by Gillespie that didn't make it close.

Wheaton's last win at the hangar came eight years to the day of their last victory in Naperville.

Peters had 17 points and 7 rebounds with 4 assists
McCrary had a pedestrian night with 12 points and 8 boards
Pflederer also had 10

Gamble was a monster tonight with 19 points
Goldthree had 15 thanks to a 10-11 showing from the charity stripe
Tiknis had 12 points

Wheaton shot 48% from the field with 43% from three and had only eight turnovers
NCC was 45% and 26% from deep with six TOs

Incredibly well played games for both teams that felt like a tournament game from the beginning.  The Hangar was electric from the opening tip with both student sections having a nice showing and being very vocal.  The game was tied 9 different times with the only two lead changes.  Wheaton was leading rebounding 13-1 at one point in the first half and ended up winning the boards totals 33-23 with 12 offensive rebounds.

Thank you!  It seems strange to read that Wheaton wins AT North Central, but I'm glad they did!

[thunder38]

These would be the Selection Sunday in-region records for the CCIW's top 4 assuming two things - 2-0 record during the final 2 CCIW games (and note, these four obviously can't all go 2-0 the rest of the way) AND 1-1 in conference tournament (and obviously only one team is actually going to to 1-1)...

Augustana: 17-5 currently + 3-1 = 20-6 (.769)
Wheaton: 16-5 currently + 3-1 = 19-6 (.760)
North Central: 15-5 currently + 3-1 = 18-6 (.750)
Illinois Wesleyan: 15-6 currently + 3-1 = 18-7 (.720)


In-region strength of schedule is another huge Pool C metric (IWU got in due to a big strength of schedule # last year - .543).  SOS data through last weekend:

Illinois Wesleyan = 0.578
Wheaton = 0.536
North Central = 0.504
Augustana = 0.471


http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank?doWhat=publicrankings&sportCode=MBB&region=35&division=3


To put IWU's 0.578 in-region SOS in perspective, of all the teams regionally ranked last week, only 7 have a better number than IWU: 

UW-Stevens Point (West) = 0.614
Amherst (Northeast) = .605
WPI (Northeast) = 0.600
Rhode Island (Northeast) = 0.598
Wash U (Midwest) = 0.589
St. Mary's, MD (Mid-Atlantic) = 0.581
St. Thomas (West) = 0.580

On the flip side, Augustana's SOS is extremely low.

And for context, the in-region records and strength of schedule numbers for the 18 Pool C's selected last year...

Here is my best guess at the order the Pool C's were selected...

1. Williams (NE): .920/.558
2. Concordia (MW): .875/.501
3. WPI (NE): .846/.516
4. Virginia Wesleyan (S): .840/.506
5. Penn St-Behrend (GL): .885/.481
6. Oswego St (E): .852/.507
7. Becker (NE): .852/.505
8. Ramapo (Atl): .826/.507
9. Gwynedd-Mercy (Mid-Atl): .800/.502
10. Amherst (NE): .875/.464
11. UW-River Falls (W): .750/.585
12. Ithaca (E): .760/.547
13. Mary Hardin-Baylor (S): .750/.508
14. Western Conn (NE): .800/.531
15. Hanover (MW): .731/.542
16. Wittenberg (GL): .727/.552
17. Texas-Dallas (S): .800/.485
18. Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543


Left on the board, in the order of selection competitiveness (by my estimation):

* Carleton (W): .750/.528
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499
* Edgewood (MW): .692/.547
* Stevens (E): .731/.512
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526


(Obviously I have just listed winning % and SOS above.)

At the end of the day, this will all come down to how the Midwest committee lines the team up, and where the CCIW's Pool C candidates stand vs other Pool C's in the region.  Last week (games through Sunday) the order was:

1   Washington U.   15-4   15-5
2   Transylvania   18-1   19-2
3   Lake Forest   17-2   18-2
4   Wheaton (Ill.)   15-4   17-4
5   North Central (Ill.)   14-4   15-6
6   Illinois Wesleyan   14-5   16-5
7   Edgewood   14-5   16-5
8   Concordia (Wis.)   15-4   16-4

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2012/02/08/2012-ncaa-regional-rankings-week-1/


Again, keep rooting for...

* Wash U to win the UAA (no conf tournament)
* Transylvania to win the HCAC conf tournament
* Lake Forest to win the MWC conf tournament


I'm confident that if none of those 3 need Pool C's that the CCIW will definitely get 1 Pool C, and will have a decent chance to get a 2nd as well down near the end of the bubble.  But if one of more in the Wash U/Transylvania/Lake Forest group needs a Pool C, things get a little dicey for the CCIW.

Thanks for all the work there Q!  By all accounts it seems that the CCIW order in the regional rankings will most likely stay the same since all three teams took a loss this week but the pecking order of the losses would seemingly keep Wheaton on top of those three. 

I have problems seeing Augustana getting in should North Central win the conference tournament.  As Q pointed out their strength of schedule is a major problem and not even being regionally ranked leaves them on the outside looking in despite their presence in the national rankings.  I think last night's loss likely puts NCC into a Pool A or bust situation due to another year of pre-conference flops.  For Wheaton it certainly helps lessen the blow from Tuesday night's loss at Carthage but Wheaton will still find themselves handicapped by that loss if they lose in the tournament semis.  IWU also suffers from the home loss to NCC but a nice job not making the same mistake Wheaton did on Tuesday night.

IMO, if Wheaton can get to 21 wins they'll get in, which entails a regular season ending Viking sweep and a win in the conference semis.  I think North Central now likely needs to win the conference tournament to get in and if Illinois Wesleyan doesn't win the CCIW tournament I would think they're then rooting for NCC to win it.

[Titan Q]

With a couple games to play, here is where I am in terms of the all-CCIW team...

1st
Tim McCrary (Sr), Wheaton (Most Outstanding Player)
Jordan Zimmer (Sr), Illinois Wesleyan
Aaron Tiknis (Jr), North Central
Malcolm Kelly (Jr), Carthage
Derek Raridon (Jr), North Central

2nd
Mark Holmes (Jr), North Park
Landon Gamble (So), North Central
Bryant Voiles (Sr), Augustana
Zack Boyd (Sr), Elmhurst
Eliud Gonzalez (Sr), Illinois Wesleyan

3rd
Aaron Garriott (Jr), Wheaton
Nick Sanford (So), Elmhurst
Troy Rorer (Sr), Augustana
Mike Gabriel (So), North Park
Spencer Schultze (Sr), Wheaton


Left on the table...

* Victor Davis (So), Illinois Wesleyan
* Kevin Reed (Jr), Illinois Wesleyan
* C.J. Goldthree (So), North Central
* Kevin Gillespie (Sr), North Central
* Brian DeSimone (Sr), Augustana
* Luke Johnson (Fr), Carthage
* Tyler Peters (So), Wheaton
* Rodney Clark (Jr), Millikin


I pretty much listed the players in the order I selected them.  I feel good about those first 14...I think the final spot (Spencer Schultze) comes down to the last 2 games.

[iwu70]

Q, can't really argue very much with your all-CCIW selections.  Yes, might be a bit different at the tail end of the third squad.  Not sure there about Troy Rorer of Augie.  Sure am glad Jordan could play out his senior year and was not seriously injured during that knock-down last Tuesday.  Seems if Titans can win out, get 1-1 in the tourney, they have a pretty good chance at Pool C?  (given all the variables and stats on SOS etc.).  That win over Wash U is looking more and more important.  Gotta win out and have a good tournament.  IWU has the easier week this week, for sure. 

Gotta love the five straight CCIW crowns the women and Coach Smith have put together.

Whitney Houston, RIP.

IWU70

[bopol]

On Carthage/IWU, basically the game was decided at the beginning of the 2nd half, when Malcom Kelly went cold and the rest of the Redmen disappeared on offense.  As has been a problem all year, they can't seem to have set plays to get other players good shots when Malcom isn't hot.

The comeback was nice, but of importance was that for the last 6 minutes, Carthage went with bigs Marlon Senior and Cam Van Wyk while Pierce, Johnson and Thompson were on the bench.  Bosko was rewarded the hustle (both played hard), but I suspect there was also a message sent to others.  Bosko also rests Donte Logan too much.  His D and point skills are too good for that and the other guards can't handle the point well enough for Logan to be out of the game.

I'll miss watching Eluid Gonzalez play.  I'll post my all-CCIW team next week, but I have Gonzalez as 1st-team.  I love/hate watching him. 

[Titan Q]

Seems if Titans can win out, get 1-1 in the tourney, they have a pretty good chance at Pool C?  (given all the variables and stats on SOS etc.).  That win over Wash U is looking more and more important. 

Yes, I'd like IWU's chances in that scenario...although winning that Friday game certainly won't be easy. 

IWU already has two big wins over teams ranked in the Midwest region - vs #1 Wash U and vs #4 Wheaton.  If the Titans go 1-1 in the conference tournament, they'd pick up another big win over a regionally ranked team (against either Wheaton or NCC).

It would help IWU for Augustana to get into the regional rankings this week, because that would give the Titans another win over a regionally ranked team.  I just have to think Augie (with in-region wins over Wheaton, IWU, and UW-Stevens Point) should be ranked ahead of Concordia and/or Edgewood.  I guess we'll see.

IWU has one other win on its resume that could factor into a Pool C discussion as part of "secondary criteria" - @ Staten Island.  Staten Island is the #1-ranked team in the Atlantic region.  That game was not considered "in-region" but it could very well help the Titans on Selection Sunday.

IWU won't have a great in-region record (relative to some Pool C teams), but the Titans have a lot of helpful things on the resume right now (a tremendous SOS and some good wins).

All of this said, I sure hope the Titans can find a way to win the conference tournament/Pool A bid.