MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[AndOne]

If you're not careful, Grey Giovanine is going to mail you an envelope filled with anthrax.

I'd whip the envelope into the 5th row.

Maybe you could land it on Giovanine's sport coat!     

[Viking Mike]

Titan Q-

Ae you suggesting that the Midwest regional committee does not want to put Augustana in the top 8 b/c it looks unfair or exhibits poor representation of the region?

I am not sure I understand the purpose of this committee.

Other than the usual posters on this site who like to rip Augie or their coach whenever they get a chance, does anyone else feel that the Vikings are NOT one of the best 8 teams in the Midwest region?  A 17-5 regional record trumps winning % of some of the teams ahead of them and they have wins over IWU, Wheaton, and Stevens Point.  A 3 point loss at #1 Wash U should not hurt Augie either.  I understand that these rankings will change 2 more times and we will never see the final one, but come on.  I see the low SOS but how does one control that?  No one knows when the schedule is created how the oppositions record will pan out. 

In any case, #8 Hanover has already lost to #2 Transylvania tonight so ...we will see next week who the next team inserted in front of Augie.

For all the love everyone says Div 3 Hoops.Com gives to Augie in their poll, that sure isn't the case with the NCAA Reg Ranking Committee.... and this is the one that really matters!

[Viking Mike]

Sorry....correction:  Hanover is #7 team and Edgewood is #8 team

Augie has no common opponents with Hanover
Augie has 2 common opponents with Edgewood

Edgewood lost by 11 to Stevens Point and lost by 4 to Aurora
Augustana beat Stevens Point by 5-10 and Aurora by 30+

My last point..... Augie currently has 4th best win % among the top 8 teams.

Look like the Vikings have something to prove down the stretch..... can't wait to see how thinks finish!!!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Viking - couple of things:

Augustana's SOS is pretty low (.460)... that is not helping them.
They have five in region losses... that is the same as Wheaton (SOS: .564), North Central (SOS: .525), Hanover (SOS: .499), and Edgewood (SOS: .488).
They have a 3-4 record against regionally ranked opponents (Wheaton is 4-3, North Central is 2-2, Hanover is 1-1, Edgewood 2-2)
Three point loss to Wash U... doesn't matter. It is a loss, the spread is irrelevant.
And the final ranking will be made public after the brackets are released.

And you control your SOS by improving your out of conference schedule: UW-Oshkosh is 4-20, Wisconsin Lutheran is 5-19, Fontbonne is 4-19, Knox is 3-19, MacMurray is 12-11... and most of those don't tend to be world beaters.

You say that Augie has the 4th best win % of the top 8 teams... but they should with that SOS. And Augie better concentrate on winning the CCIW because another loss may completely eliminate them from making the NCAA tournament.

[AndOne]

Congratulations to the most recent CCIW player of the week, NCC's Aaron Tiknis.


North Central's Aaron Tiknis was named the College Conference of Illinois & Wisconsin (CCIW) Men's Basketball Player of the Week Monday.

Tiknis, a junior forward from Chicago, Ill., and Grand River Academy (Sport Management major), averaged 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds for the Cardinals last week. He scored a game and career-high 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting and also finished with eight rebounds, three blocks and two steals during an 80-73 win over Illinois Wesleyan on February 7. He then scored 12 points, pulled down nine rebounds and had two blocks during a 64-61 loss to Wheaton on February 11.

[Titan Q]

Viking - couple of things:

Augustana's SOS is pretty low (.460)... that is not helping them.
They have five in region losses... that is the same as Wheaton (SOS: .564), North Central (SOS: .525), Hanover (SOS: .499), and Edgewood (SOS: .488).
They have a 3-4 record against regionally ranked opponents (Wheaton is 4-3, North Central is 2-2, Hanover is 1-1, Edgewood 2-2)
Three point loss to Wash U... doesn't matter. It is a loss, the spread is irrelevant.
And the final ranking will be made public after the brackets are released.

And you control your SOS by improving your out of conference schedule: UW-Oshkosh is 4-20, Wisconsin Lutheran is 5-19, Fontbonne is 4-19, Knox is 3-19, MacMurray is 12-11... and most of those don't tend to be world beaters.

You say that Augie has the 4th best win % of the top 8 teams... but they should with that SOS. And Augie better concentrate on winning the CCIW because another loss may completely eliminate them from making the NCAA tournament.

Dave, here is the data that this week's ranking was based on...


* Augustana: .773 WP/.460 SOS/3-4 vs regionally ranked

* Edgewood: .762 WP/.488 SOS/2-2 vs regionally ranked

* Hanover: .762 WP/.499 SOS/1-1 vs regionally ranked


Augie should be ranked ahead of Hanover based on that data.  No only is their WP better, but they have played 7 games vs regionally ranked teams (vs 2 for Hanover).  There is no way that 0.39 difference in SOS should give Hanover the edge. 

I also think it is a no-brainer that Augie should be ranked ahead of Edgewood based on those numbers, and considering the in-region common opponent result (Edgewood lost to Stevens Point, Augie beat Stevens Point).

I don't agree with your comment, "You say that Augie has the 4th best win % of the top 8 teams... but they should with that SOS."  Again, Augustana has played:

* Wash U
* UW-Stevens Point
* North Central (twice)
* Wheaton
* Illinois Wesleyan (twice)

How does that compare to Hanover and Edgewood's schedule?

[Titan Q]

Titan Q-

Ae you suggesting that the Midwest regional committee does not want to put Augustana in the top 8 b/c it looks unfair or exhibits poor representation of the region?

Well it's all I can think of.  I seems to me pretty clear that 4 CCIW teams should be in the ranking this week based on the official criteria and numbers.

But as I said, I'm confident 3 CCIW teams will be in the final ranking - the final regular season game and then the conference tournament games should sort this out.  And really, the 3rd of the 3 Pool C candidates has almost no chance to get in anyway, so I don't think it matters if that 3rd Pool C candidate is ranked or not.

Bottom line, based on the current rankings, it seems obvious that Augie cannot afford to lose @ Wheaton Tuesday.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Titan Q - I know the numbers... I mentioned them.

You can point out they have played 7 regionally ranked opponents... but they are also 3-4, meaning a losing record against those teams. Hanover, Edgewood, etc. may have had less games, but they have .500 records.

My simple point was that those teams have better SOS's along with better WL % versus regionally ranked opponents. The line does read "results vs. regionally ranked opponents" not number of regionally ranked opponents.

Also, my comment about they should have that number of wins, as I pointed out they have some very easy games in there that points to the fact their record should be good. I am not discounting their games against UWSP, Wash U and the CCIW... but I am also saying that they have had some very easy opponents, thus they should have an good record and they thus have a weak SOS. Also, one more win to go 4-3 versus regionally ranked opponents and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[Titan Q]

My simple point was that those teams have better SOS's along with better WL % versus regionally ranked opponents. The line does read "results vs. regionally ranked opponents" not number of regionally ranked opponents.

But it also does not say "winning percentage vs regionally ranked teams."  As you point out, it says "results."  Results can mean 1) # of games, 2) winning %, or 3) some combination of both. 

Within this system, which has of course been around several years now, I think it's accurate to say that the "results vs regionally ranked opponents" criterion has been applied to some degree around number of games vs regionally ranked teams.  I think it has been used almost at times as a secondary strength of schedule-type metric that allows the committee to say, "Team X has played 7 games against the teams we have identified as as the best in this region (and others)...Team Y has only played 2.  We need to consider that when looking at the complete picture here."

I've had past regional and national committee members tell me of specific situations where the number of games played vs regionally ranked teams helped teams.  I'm sure you have had those some conversations.

In the case of Augustana right now, that 7 number (whether 3-4 or 4-3) should be creating separation between Hanover and Edgewood in my opinion (with the other numbers very close overall).

[iwu70]

Q, given all your assessment and numbers, do you think there's any chance the CCIW gets three teams in the tournament this year?  Or, just two?  Say NCC wins the tourney . . . WC beats Augie Tuesday.  IWU goes 1-1 in the tournament?

Just wondering.  Of course, everyone wants the AQ, so no doubt waiting to see what the committee, the numbers and the lost Pool A contenders portend. 

IWU70

WI-SP went down last night to Stout.  Weird.

Gotta love the run the Titan women are on . . . they find a way to win, no matter.  Quite a bunch of tough, determined players.   ms

[USee]

I understand the 4th ranked CCIW team stands virtually no chance of getting into the tournament, but doesn't Augie being regionally ranked help the other 3 CCIW teams? (results v RRO)? Unless they already appeared and dropped out?

[Hardwood]

Titan Q - I know the numbers... I mentioned them.

You can point out they have played 7 regionally ranked opponents... but they are also 3-4, meaning a losing record against those teams. Hanover, Edgewood, etc. may have had less games, but they have .500 records.

My simple point was that those teams have better SOS's along with better WL % versus regionally ranked opponents. The line does read "results vs. regionally ranked opponents" not number of regionally ranked opponents.

Also, my comment about they should have that number of wins, as I pointed out they have some very easy games in there that points to the fact their record should be good. I am not discounting their games against UWSP, Wash U and the CCIW... but I am also saying that they have had some very easy opponents, thus they should have an good record and they thus have a weak SOS. Also, one more win to go 4-3 versus regionally ranked opponents and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Dave -- Has D3hoops.com ever considered doing a regionally ranked type system throughout the year in addition to a top 20 poll?

[bopol]

Well, if it's any comfort, Hanover got dumped at home by Translyvania, so they wouldn't be ahead of Augie if the ratings came out today.

And yeah, I'm not really buying that there is a big statistical difference between 3-4 and 1-1.

[Gregory Sager]

And you control your SOS by improving your out of conference schedule: UW-Oshkosh is 4-20, Wisconsin Lutheran is 5-19, Fontbonne is 4-19, Knox is 3-19, MacMurray is 12-11... and most of those don't tend to be world beaters.

Augustana does have a tendency to snack on a few cupcakes each year, but, honestly, D-Mac, are you really going to fault Grey Giovanine for scheduling UW-Oshkosh? The Titans have been a very solid program in the past under Ted Van Dellen, and you should never discount the challenge posed by playing a WIAC team -- any WIAC team -- even when the WIAC team in question is in a down cycle. Yeah, UWO is experiencing an epic crash-landing this season, but there's still no way that I'd ever lump the Titans in together with the likes of Knox and Wisconsin Lutheran.

My simple point was that those teams have better SOS's along with better WL % versus regionally ranked opponents. The line does read "results vs. regionally ranked opponents" not number of regionally ranked opponents.

But it also does not say "winning percentage vs regionally ranked teams."  As you point out, it says "results."  Results can mean 1) # of games, 2) winning %, or 3) some combination of both. 

Within this system, which has of course been around several years now, I think it's accurate to say that the "results vs regionally ranked opponents" criterion has been applied to some degree around number of games vs regionally ranked teams.  I think it has been used almost at times as a secondary strength of schedule-type metric that allows the committee to say, "Team X has played 7 games against the teams we have identified as as the best in this region (and others)...Team Y has only played 2.  We need to consider that when looking at the complete picture here."

I've had past regional and national committee members tell me of specific situations where the number of games played vs regionally ranked teams helped teams.  I'm sure you have had those some conversations.

In the case of Augustana right now, that 7 number (whether 3-4 or 4-3) should be creating separation between Hanover and Edgewood in my opinion (with the other numbers very close overall).

While I agree with you about this, Bob, the fact remains that the regional committee, like the national committee, does have a bit of leeway, both in terms of how it interprets the criteria and how it applies the criteria. This particular regional committee might not be weighting the quantity of regionally-ranked opponents as much as do other regional committees, or the national committee. Or it may be putting the whole criterion of results versus regionally-ranked opponents behind several of the other four primary criteria, or even all of them.

The ranking and selection process is mostly objective, but this is the sort of instance in which subjectivity comes into play. Viking Mike's paranoia aside , I think we'd all like to see Augie regionally ranked. (Well, everyone but Dennis, that is.) And, as I said, I agree with your reasoning as to why Augie ought to be in the ranking ahead of Hanover and Edgewood. But there's enough wiggle room in how the criteria are interpreted, and how they're stacked up against each other in the evaluation process, for an objective committee member to say that Augie should be kept out of the regional ranking.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well, if it's any comfort, Hanover got dumped at home by Translyvania, so they wouldn't be ahead of Augie if the ratings came out today.

And yeah, I'm not really buying that there is a big statistical difference between 3-4 and 1-1.

As Gregory said... this isn't necessarily a "statistical" comparison but something the committee looks at. I am just pointing out the stat as a fact that the teams ranked ahead of Augustana do not have losing records in regional games... while Augustana did... that MAY have been a factor.

Dave -- Has D3hoops.com ever considered doing a regionally ranked type system throughout the year in addition to a top 20 poll?

There has been talk... but it is practically impossible. WE would have to do the work of eight different committees... determining the teams by our reading of the criteria... and going from there. Also, early on in the season the data just isn't enough to give a fair understanding of a team's actual SOS and other criteria, for example. Remember, there are eight regional committees working on these... Pat, Gordon, and myself trying to do that for each region, in each gender... not sure that would be fair for us... or you!