MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[markerickson]

What did an IWU competitor display - aside from the CCIW tourney champ - for a postseason bid to trump IWU's very good nonconference and favorable conference results?  I do not foresee the CCIW getting three.

[AndOne]

FYI - for anyone who cares... Augie came out of my Top 25... but I couldn't put NCC in. I placed Wheaton there due to their wins over NCC (in other words, I have Wheaton and NCC even in my mind and Wheaton gets the edge with their wins against NCC).

A chance at redemption! 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

IWU was a surprise to get in last year.. I think they would be a surprise to get in this year.

[John Gleich]

Bob,

This was the post that I was thinking of...

Pool C outlook...revised with Carthage loss today.


With 11-3 CCIW Record and 1-1 in CCIW Tournament
Augustana 22-4 (.846) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 20-6 (.769) - Lock
Wheaton 16-6 (.727) - Probable
Carthage 14-6 (.700) - Possible

With 10-4 CCIW Record and 1-1 in CCIW Tournament
Augustana 21-5 (.808) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 19-7 (.731) - Probable
Wheaton 15-7 (.682) - Not likely
Carthage 13-7 (.650) - Not likely

With 9-5 CCIW Record and 1-1 in the CCIW Tournament
Augustana 20-6 (.769) - Lock
Illinois Wesleyan 18-8 (.692) - Not likely
Wheaton 14-8 (.636) - No chance
Carthage 12-8 (.600) - No chance

(Obviously a team going 0-1 in the CCIW tournament changes the above.)

North Park, Elmhurst, North Central, and Millikin don't have any chance at a Pool C bid.

It's from last year, not this year... and it doesn't deal with SOS, it deals with winning percentage.  Apparently my memory is better yet worse than I thought...


But... I think April did make a good point.  In part due to the conference winning percentage, IWU may miss out on an invite to the dance.


I did some fiddling around with the non-conference numbers for the CCIW, the MWC (b/c those two are in question IWU vs LFC) and the WIAC, which, it's been pretty unanimously decided, will get 2 Pool C's (and try to figure out why that might be):


The CCIW plays 112 conference games.  This year, they played 67 regional non-con games (I'm not including the conf tournament in this).  So 67/178=37.4%.  In those 67 games, they went 40-27 (59.7%)

The MWC plays 180 conference games.  They also limit their conference schools to 23 total games... and everybody doesn't even play the full slate of non-con games (some play 4 instead of 5).  They played 38 regional non-con games.  38/218=17.4%.  In those games, they went 21-17 (55.3%)

The WIAC plays 144 conference games.  This year, they played 67 regional non-con games.  67/211=31.8%.  In those 67 games, they went 52-15 (77.6%)



You can think about non-conference games several different ways... One way to think about it is that non-con games can insulate you from a tough conference if you do well in the non-con.  It's a nice way to rack up several regional wins... which can drive up your winning percentage and offset potential conference losses.

On the other hand, it's a way to raise your SOS.  If you're a top team in your conference, your strength of schedule from the conference will actually be lower than that of the teams at the bottom of the conference, because you're playing the teams with low win % and they're playing you... with a higher win%.

Another way to look at it is more along the lines of the second way of thinking... that the non-conference schedule is a way to prepare for your conference so you play tough games so your team will mature... but that may lead to more losses and make your conference schedule that much more important.

What I found interesting in this is how important the non-con win percentage of your conference foes really is.

The WIAC has a range of SOS from .523-.592, with a mean of .557 and a median of .550.  The MWC has a range of SOS from .473-.525 with a mean of .505 and a median of .506.  The CCIW has a range from .495-.570 with a mean of .528 and a median of .531 .

The MWC might be a bit deceiving... because the impact of the non-conference games is about half that of CCIW... so they naturally would gravitate towards the .500 level.  Of course, their winning percentage wasn't that far above .500 anyway.

One thing that's interesting toe me... is that Wheaton and Stevens Point have the highest SOS in their conferences and both took second.  I part, that's due to the conference as a whole... but they also went out and found competition that helped them in regards to the SOS.

Now, I fully acknowledge that you don't have any control about what happens to your opponent after you play them... and teams that have historically been good aren't good every year (and this bad year may be the one you play them in), but it seems like it would balance out... if they're not as good, you'll win and your win% will increase.  If they're really good, then your SOS #'s should go up.

Whitewater and Point (and River Falls would have been there without the Pool A bid) were aided by the fact that 8/9 of the WIAC schools had winning non-conference records (only 3-5 Oshkosh was sub .500) and the worst winning percentage was .714 for the two schools who were 5-2 in-region in the non-conference.


I'd love to look more at this... but I've gotta get to work in the morning!

[thunder38]

D3hoops just posted their mock brackets and has IWU in and bound for Hope.  Wheaton headed for Whitewater and NCC hosting while in a separate bracket from the other two CCIW schools.  Real brackets out at 11.  Good luck to the Titans!  Hopefully they're sleeping in or it has all the makings of an agonizingly long morning til the brackets come out.

[Titan Q]

D3hoops just posted their mock brackets and has IWU in and bound for Hope.  Wheaton headed for Whitewater and NCC hosting while in a separate bracket from the other two CCIW schools.  Real brackets out at 11.  Good luck to the Titans!  Hopefully they're sleeping in or it has all the makings of an agonizingly long morning til the brackets come out.

D3hoops has IWU in as the #15 Pool C (I have IWU as the #19 Pool C).  The D3hoops crew put IWU ahead of Lake Forest in the final Midwest region, and considered "secondary criteria" (Staten Island, Bethany) in evaluating IWU...

When doing so, Illinois Wesleyan scored better, picking up wins against regionally ranked opponents Bethany and Staten Island. I took the committee's penchant for SOS this year to mean that when push comes to shove, they would take the teams with the better SOS, so I ranked Illinois Wesleyan ahead of Lake Forest and Randolph-Macon ahead of Birmingham-Southern.

IWU's case is clearly built around:

1. Strength of schedule
2. Results vs regionally ranked teams (in terms of both wins, notably Wash U and Wheaton, and # of games played)
3. Secondary criteria wins over Staten Island & Bethany.


It's about a coin flip right now.  Assuming IWU is ahead of Lake Forest in the Midwest (which I think they are), I'm sticking with a 50/50 chance.

[NCF]

D3hoops just posted their mock brackets and has IWU in and bound for Hope.  Wheaton headed for Whitewater and NCC hosting while in a separate bracket from the other two CCIW schools.  Real brackets out at 11.  Good luck to the Titans!  Hopefully they're sleeping in or it has all the makings of an agonizingly long morning til the brackets come out.

With three teams in(maybe) will make for a great week-end of basketball. NCC hosting would be great as well, but will be a parking nightmare on Friday with a huge track meet next door as well.

[shepherd]

D3hoops just posted their mock brackets and has IWU in and bound for Hope.  Wheaton headed for Whitewater and NCC hosting while in a separate bracket from the other two CCIW schools.  Real brackets out at 11.  Good luck to the Titans!  Hopefully they're sleeping in or it has all the makings of an agonizingly long morning til the brackets come out.

With three teams in(maybe) will make for a great week-end of basketball. NCC hosting would be great as well, but will be a parking nightmare on Friday with a huge track meet next door as well.

Which gives the perfect excuse to let Wheaton host.    Plus wouldn't the higher ranked team host?

[Titan Q]

D3hoops just posted their mock brackets and has IWU in and bound for Hope.  Wheaton headed for Whitewater and NCC hosting while in a separate bracket from the other two CCIW schools.  Real brackets out at 11.  Good luck to the Titans!  Hopefully they're sleeping in or it has all the makings of an agonizingly long morning til the brackets come out.

With three teams in(maybe) will make for a great week-end of basketball. NCC hosting would be great as well, but will be a parking nightmare on Friday with a huge track meet next door as well.

Which gives the perfect excuse to let Wheaton host.    Plus wouldn't the higher ranked team host?

There is a pretty good chance that North Central ends up above Wheaton in the final Midwest ranking, and thus, seeded higher in the tournament.  In terms of hosting a Regional (rounds 1-2), I think NCC has better odds.  (It is certainly no guarantee that one of the two will host though.)

Bubble team IWU doesn't have to worry about parking at the Shirk Center, of course.  If the Titans make it, they'll head somewhere on the road to play a very good team on Friday night.

[NCF]

D3hoops just posted their mock brackets and has IWU in and bound for Hope.  Wheaton headed for Whitewater and NCC hosting while in a separate bracket from the other two CCIW schools.  Real brackets out at 11.  Good luck to the Titans!  Hopefully they're sleeping in or it has all the makings of an agonizingly long morning til the brackets come out.

With three teams in(maybe) will make for a great week-end of basketball. NCC hosting would be great as well, but will be a parking nightmare on Friday with a huge track meet next door as well.

Which gives the perfect excuse to let Wheaton host.    Plus wouldn't the higher ranked team host?

I'll be there early, so I hope to have a space close, but if the Cards host, I can go back and forth between track and bball.  No falling asleep between events   

[AndOne]

2. Conference indoor track championships----Please keep in mind that NCC will also be hosting the CCIW men's and women's indoor championships this weekend. Events commence at 11:00 AM Friday in the Res/Rec Center which is the building immediately east of Merner Fieldhouse where the basketball games will be played.

3. Parking---The track meet will undoubtedly consume the vast majority, if not all, of the parking spots in the lot directly across from the gym, and at the top of the drive/street leading down to the Res/Rec Center and Merner Fieldhouse. Fans arriving for the basketball action should probably not entertain thoughts of being able to park on campus. There may be parking on some of the streets surrounding campus. Parking on the downtown streets and small city lots on Saturday mornings in Naperville is a zoo, but some spots usually open up by late afternoon before the arrival of the crowds for Naperville's very active nightlife scene. Downtown, for those not familiar, is only 2-3 blocks from the NCC campus.

Due to the above, your best bet may be to park in either of the 2 City Of Naperville parking garages. There is a 3 story garage with about 450 spaces on Chicago Ave, just east of Washington St. This is only about 2 blocks from Merner Fieldhouse. The facility runs between Chicago and Jefferson, the next street north. There is an entrance on both Chicago and Jefferson.
IF YOU PARK IN THIS GARAGE---Directly across from the Chicago Ave entrance, on the south side of Chicago is a small strip mall with Slice Pizza on the west end and Bangkok Village on the east end. Walk about 20 yards up the hill east from Bangkok Village restaurant to the big round cement garbage bin. There you will find a sidewalk heading south toward the NCC football field. Take the sidewalk slightly downhill between the strip mall and the dorm on your left. You will come out near the north end of the football stadium. Merner Fieldhouse is the 1st building immediately east of the stadium. 

The 2nd City garage, with about 800 spaces is a few blocks farther away. it is on Van Buren St, 1/2 block west of Washington. It runs between Van Buren and Benton, the next street north. There are entrances both on Van Buren and Benton. Walk out of the garage and go 1/2 block east to Washington. Walk south on Washington to Chicago. Turn left/east on Chicago, and follow the above directions to complete your walk to Merner Fieldhouse. The Van Buren garage is about 5-6 blocks northwest of Merner.

If North Central hosts, there will be no more of a parking problem than there was this past weekend. With NCC hosting both the conference basketball tourney and the conference men's and women's indoor track championships, I heard not one of the many fans I talked with from any of the participating teams indicate they had a problem finding parking.
In addition to many smaller municipal lots, downtown Naperville, which is Illinois' 5th largest city and which is only a couple of blocks from the NCC campus, has 2 parking garages that can accommodate a total of approximately 1250 cars.

[AndOne]

IWU was a surprise to get in last year.. I think they would be a surprise to get in this year.

You should know that it wouldn't be much of a surprise at all.   
Why should this year be any different from last year?

[HopeConvert]

D3hoops just posted their mock brackets and has IWU in and bound for Hope.  Wheaton headed for Whitewater and NCC hosting while in a separate bracket from the other two CCIW schools.  Real brackets out at 11.  Good luck to the Titans!  Hopefully they're sleeping in or it has all the makings of an agonizingly long morning til the brackets come out.

With three teams in(maybe) will make for a great week-end of basketball. NCC hosting would be great as well, but will be a parking nightmare on Friday with a huge track meet next door as well.

Which gives the perfect excuse to let Wheaton host.    Plus wouldn't the higher ranked team host?

There is a pretty good chance that North Central ends up above Wheaton in the final Midwest ranking, and thus, seeded higher in the tournament.  In terms of hosting a Regional (rounds 1-2), I think NCC has better odds.  (It is certainly no guarantee that one of the two will host though.)

Bubble team IWU doesn't have to worry about parking at the Shirk Center, of course.  If the Titans make it, they'll head somewhere on the road to play a very good team on Friday night.

If I were NCC, and Wheaton ended up hosting over me - I'd be pretty ticked.

[NCF]

2. Conference indoor track championships----Please keep in mind that NCC will also be hosting the CCIW men's and women's indoor championships this weekend. Events commence at 11:00 AM Friday in the Res/Rec Center which is the building immediately east of Merner Fieldhouse where the basketball games will be played.

3. Parking---The track meet will undoubtedly consume the vast majority, if not all, of the parking spots in the lot directly across from the gym, and at the top of the drive/street leading down to the Res/Rec Center and Merner Fieldhouse. Fans arriving for the basketball action should probably not entertain thoughts of being able to park on campus. There may be parking on some of the streets surrounding campus. Parking on the downtown streets and small city lots on Saturday mornings in Naperville is a zoo, but some spots usually open up by late afternoon before the arrival of the crowds for Naperville's very active nightlife scene. Downtown, for those not familiar, is only 2-3 blocks from the NCC campus.

Due to the above, your best bet may be to park in either of the 2 City Of Naperville parking garages. There is a 3 story garage with about 450 spaces on Chicago Ave, just east of Washington St. This is only about 2 blocks from Merner Fieldhouse. The facility runs between Chicago and Jefferson, the next street north. There is an entrance on both Chicago and Jefferson.
IF YOU PARK IN THIS GARAGE---Directly across from the Chicago Ave entrance, on the south side of Chicago is a small strip mall with Slice Pizza on the west end and Bangkok Village on the east end. Walk about 20 yards up the hill east from Bangkok Village restaurant to the big round cement garbage bin. There you will find a sidewalk heading south toward the NCC football field. Take the sidewalk slightly downhill between the strip mall and the dorm on your left. You will come out near the north end of the football stadium. Merner Fieldhouse is the 1st building immediately east of the stadium. 

The 2nd City garage, with about 800 spaces is a few blocks farther away. it is on Van Buren St, 1/2 block west of Washington. It runs between Van Buren and Benton, the next street north. There are entrances both on Van Buren and Benton. Walk out of the garage and go 1/2 block east to Washington. Walk south on Washington to Chicago. Turn left/east on Chicago, and follow the above directions to complete your walk to Merner Fieldhouse. The Van Buren garage is about 5-6 blocks northwest of Merner.

If North Central hosts, there will be no more of a parking problem than there was this past weekend. With NCC hosting both the conference basketball tourney and the conference men's and women's indoor track championships, I heard not one of the many fans I talked with from any of the participating teams indicate they had a problem finding parking.
In addition to many smaller municipal lots, downtown Naperville, which is Illinois' 5th largest city and which is only a couple of blocks from the NCC campus, has 2 parking garages that can accommodate a total of approximately 1250 cars.

Last week the track meet ended before the game, this week the track meet starts at 4 and it is a last chance meet, so there will be more people here than last week. Still, the parking garage should be fine for most people. I prefer the parking lot or the street closest to the track. Go Cards I don't want to carry my chair through downtown Naperville

[Titan Q]

If I were NCC, and Wheaton ended up hosting over me - I'd be pretty ticked.

Here is the key data the decision (the final Midwest ranking) is based on...

* Wheaton - 18-6 (.750), .570, 6-5 vs RR, 2-1 record vs NCC

* North Central - 19-5 (.792), .500, 6-2 vs RR, 1-2 record vs Wheaton


To me, this could go either way due to Wheaton's 2-1 record vs NCC.  But I suspect NCC will end up the higher seed.  Even though Wheaton was #2 and NCC was #7 just last week, I think in the final poll they step back and say, "OK, here are the teams - what order makes the most sense in terms of Pool C order and seedings."  I honestly think they kind of wipe the slate clean in that final ranking and make sure that what gets submitted is best for the region.