MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

It's not about trying to target the location of the next champion. It's called the Final Four, not the Final One. Because of the financial constraints placed upon the D3 tourney, we'll never get a D1-type field in which the seeding will be truly national, so the chances of getting, say, an Illinois team, a Wisconsin team, a Michigan team, and an Ohio team as the Final Four are incredibly remote. The sheer volume of the Northeast Region's membership roster -- it's easily the largest region among the eight in terms of the number of schools it contains -- not to mention the high quality of the teams at the top of the NESCAC, reinforce the fact that it'd be very unlikely that four teams from the midwest would be the top four seeds even if we did have a D1-type seeding system for the D3 tourney. Plus, there's the ODAC, which has emerged within the past thirteen or fourteen years as a legitimate power conference that can hold its own with the big boys out here in the heartland.

The bottom line is that the Final Four will almost always have only two representatives from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio, plus one likely representative from New England and/or the NYC area (if not two), and in most cases another team representing one of the states farther down the eastern seaboard: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, or North Carolina. (If Ralph's ASC or the NWC ever breaks through, then the chances of multiple teams from the midwest get even more diluted.) There's no good reason to change the search for a congenial Final Four location from the eastern Ohio / western Pennsylvania axis that the Dean of KnightSlappy U. and I have discussed.

[sac]

You've spent time crunching the numbers, haven't you? I just dumped the cities of all 408 active D3 members for 2012-13 into geomidpoint.com. Using their three calculation methods I got:

(Center of minimum distance): Central/Eastern Pennsylvania along I-80 between State College and Youngstown, OH
(Average lattitude/longitude): Mansfield, OH (about an hour's drive from both Canton and Akron)
(Center of gravity): Northern Ohio along Lake Erie (and I-80/90) between Cleveland and Toledo.

Yes! Yes! Cedar Point must have a gym on their property somewhere.

[AO]

It's not about trying to target the location of the next champion. It's called the Final Four, not the Final One. Because of the financial constraints placed upon the D3 tourney, we'll never get a D1-type field in which the seeding will be truly national, so the chances of getting, say, an Illinois team, a Wisconsin team, a Michigan team, and an Ohio team as the Final Four are incredibly remote. The sheer volume of the Northeast Region's membership roster -- it's easily the largest region among the eight in terms of the number of schools it contains -- not to mention the high quality of the teams at the top of the NESCAC, reinforce the fact that it'd be very unlikely that four teams from the midwest would be the top four seeds even if we did have a D1-type seeding system for the D3 tourney. Plus, there's the ODAC, which has emerged within the past thirteen or fourteen years as a legitimate power conference that can hold its own with the big boys out here in the heartland.

The bottom line is that the Final Four will almost always have only two representatives from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio, plus one likely representative from New England and/or the NYC area (if not two), and in most cases another team representing one of the states farther down the eastern seaboard: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, or North Carolina. (If Ralph's ASC or the NWC ever breaks through, then the chances of multiple teams from the midwest get even more diluted.) There's no good reason to change the search for a congenial Final Four location from the eastern Ohio / western Pennsylvania axis that the Dean of KnightSlappy U. and I have discussed.

Your post makes sense if all areas tended to draw the same number of fans, but if you're trying to make it easier for the majority of fans who actually want to attend the final four, you'd move it closer to Michigan or Illinois.

[sac]

It's not about trying to target the location of the next champion. It's called the Final Four, not the Final One. Because of the financial constraints placed upon the D3 tourney, we'll never get a D1-type field in which the seeding will be truly national, so the chances of getting, say, an Illinois team, a Wisconsin team, a Michigan team, and an Ohio team as the Final Four are incredibly remote. The sheer volume of the Northeast Region's membership roster -- it's easily the largest region among the eight in terms of the number of schools it contains -- not to mention the high quality of the teams at the top of the NESCAC, reinforce the fact that it'd be very unlikely that four teams from the midwest would be the top four seeds even if we did have a D1-type seeding system for the D3 tourney. Plus, there's the ODAC, which has emerged within the past thirteen or fourteen years as a legitimate power conference that can hold its own with the big boys out here in the heartland.

The bottom line is that the Final Four will almost always have only two representatives from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio, plus one likely representative from New England and/or the NYC area (if not two), and in most cases another team representing one of the states farther down the eastern seaboard: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, or North Carolina. (If Ralph's ASC or the NWC ever breaks through, then the chances of multiple teams from the midwest get even more diluted.) There's no good reason to change the search for a congenial Final Four location from the eastern Ohio / western Pennsylvania axis that the Dean of KnightSlappy U. and I have discussed.

Your post makes sense if all areas tended to draw the same number of fans, but if you're trying to make it easier for the majority of fans who actually want to attend the final four, you'd move it closer to Michigan or Illinois.

I was never at the FF when it was hosted by Calvin or Wittenberg but my recollection is attendance wasn't that great.

D3 is was it is, its for the schools and their fans and not much else.  I'm fine with that.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

AO - I think your numbers might slightly change if you look at how many teams have made it the Final Four... not just won championships. You will see more representatives from regions you may realize (though, as the tournament has been structured in the past, some of those numbers will be skewed, but will still give a better overall idea of where teams are coming from). I also agree with Sager that just because teams that have won the national title may be greater in the Midwest, per se, doesn't mean it is better to move the championships closer to them. You in essence move it further away from the Northeast, per se, which has had very good crowds and national contenders and championships. I agree with Sager that moving it into the Ohio area, or even into the Mid-Atlantic area for argument sake, would make more sense geographically... but it just isn't that simple.

It simply comes down to this: another location needs to present a bid that allows the NCAA to possibly move the Final Four to another location other than Salem. They have shown on the women's side a willingness to move the games every two years (though, sometimes locations don't rebid, take a break, and bid again which I don't think helps)... I wouldn't be surprised if a solid bid came forth from another location would give a chance to see a new experience. But again... that bid has to come forward and so far to my understanding, only a few bids have been rumored exists or thought about and only a few have been presented that didn't come close to what Salem already provided. Salem isn't hosting the Final Four (and MANY other championships, especially in Division III - look up their history, you will be amazed) because this is the IOC or FIFA or the NCAA is lazy... no one else has tried to take it from them.

And AO - I do suggest you decide to go to Salem sometime. Maybe plan now to go to the Elite Eight and Final Four this year... or the Championship Weekend next season (2014)... at least experience it even if your team is not there (which many like TQ have done over time).

[Gregory Sager]

It's not about trying to target the location of the next champion. It's called the Final Four, not the Final One. Because of the financial constraints placed upon the D3 tourney, we'll never get a D1-type field in which the seeding will be truly national, so the chances of getting, say, an Illinois team, a Wisconsin team, a Michigan team, and an Ohio team as the Final Four are incredibly remote. The sheer volume of the Northeast Region's membership roster -- it's easily the largest region among the eight in terms of the number of schools it contains -- not to mention the high quality of the teams at the top of the NESCAC, reinforce the fact that it'd be very unlikely that four teams from the midwest would be the top four seeds even if we did have a D1-type seeding system for the D3 tourney. Plus, there's the ODAC, which has emerged within the past thirteen or fourteen years as a legitimate power conference that can hold its own with the big boys out here in the heartland.

The bottom line is that the Final Four will almost always have only two representatives from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio, plus one likely representative from New England and/or the NYC area (if not two), and in most cases another team representing one of the states farther down the eastern seaboard: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, or North Carolina. (If Ralph's ASC or the NWC ever breaks through, then the chances of multiple teams from the midwest get even more diluted.) There's no good reason to change the search for a congenial Final Four location from the eastern Ohio / western Pennsylvania axis that the Dean of KnightSlappy U. and I have discussed.

Your post makes sense if all areas tended to draw the same number of fans, but if you're trying to make it easier for the majority of fans who actually want to attend the final four, you'd move it closer to Michigan or Illinois.

And your post completely misses the point. Did you not read my post at all? Have you not been paying attention to how the selection committee constructs the tourney field each year, and are you oblivious to the fact that the D3 tourney is not financially self-sufficient and is therefore limited in terms of budgetary outlays with regard to team travel?

Here is the dispersal of Final Four participants by state over the past dozen seasons, which is how long (I think) that the pools system has been in effect:

Massachusetts	10
Ohio	7
Pennsylvania	6
Wisconsin	6
Virginia	4
Illinois	3
Michigan	3
Missouri	3
Minnesota	2
New Jersey	2
New York	2
North Carolina	2
District of Columbia	1
Vermont	1

For the foreseeable future the Final Four is going to reflect the geographic dispersal that I've outlined in my 12:24 pm post.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

The five years North Park played in the Final Four, albeit a full quarter century ago, both Rock Island three times and Calvin twice, the gyms were packed.

dgp

[Gregory Sager]

The five years North Park played in the Final Four, albeit a full quarter century ago, both Rock Island three times and Calvin twice, the gyms were packed.

dgp

Not true. The listed attendance for the '87 championship game was only 2,100, most of whom were wearing royal blue and gold. Calvin's old gym held a lot more than that. In fact, the '85 championship game between North Park and Potsdam State, held in the same gym, drew 2,816.

The attendance was down for all four of the Final Four games in '87. That's because Wittenberg was on spring break (the Tigers had a student run around the gym carrying the red "W' flag, but that was about it as far as their fan base was concerned) and the two east-coast schools, Richard Stockton and Clark, hardly brought anyone at all with them to southwestern Michigan.

I remember seeing lots and lots of empty seats in the non-NPC sections of the gym that weekend.

[Gregory Sager]

D3 championship game attendance by site, 1975-2012

city	yrs	avg	high (yr, teams)
Reading, PA	1975-76	2,900	4,000 ('76, Scranton over Wittenberg)
Rock Island, IL	1977-81	3,227	4,237 ('81, Potsdam State over Augustana)
Grand Rapids, MI	1982-88	2,969	3,700 ('83, Scranton over Wittenberg)
Springfield, OH	1989-92	2,801	2,941 ('92, Calvin over Rochester)
Buffalo, NY	1993-95	2,513	3,000 ('95, UW-Platteville over Manchester)
Salem, VA	1996-2012	3,148	4,461 ('99, UW-Platteville over Hampden-Sydney)

Top ten championship games by attendance, 1975-2012

4,461	1999, UW-Platteville over Hampden-Sydney (Salem, VA)
4,237	1981, Potsdam State over Augustana (Rock Island, IL)
4,000	1976, Scranton over Wittenberg (Reading, PA)
3,944	1996, Rowan over Hope (Salem, VA)
3,915	1998, UW-Platteville over Hope (Salem, VA)
3,867	2003, Williams over Gustavus Adolphus (Salem, VA)
3,700	1983, Scranton over Wittenberg (Grand Rapids, MI)
3,500	1980, North Park over Upsala (Rock Island, IL)
3,500	1979, North Park over Potsdam State (Rock Island, IL)
3,500	1982, Wabash over Potsdam State (Grand Rapids, MI)

[AO]

I don't see the Northeast having good crowds compared to the Midwest.  Cabrini averages 250, NESCAC schools like Williams and Amherst average 600.  Whitewater and St. Thomas average 900 while Stevens Point averages 1500. 

I suppose you could make the argument that you're attempting to maximize your attendance by having it farther east as the midwest fanbases are willing to go further.

If D3 were really trying to cut down on travel they might move more towards the D-1 ratio of at-large bids regardless of region to automatic bids so maybe the final 4 could include 4 midwest teams.

Does the NCAA seek out bids?  Surely it's an event that a lot of places in the Midwest would be happy to host, but they might just be wasting their time submitting a bid if the NCAA is happy enough with Salem to not be exploring other sites.

[Gregory Sager]

I don't see the Northeast having good crowds compared to the Midwest.  Cabrini averages 250, NESCAC schools like Williams and Amherst average 600.  Whitewater and St. Thomas average 900 while Stevens Point averages 1500.

Midwestern schools, on average, outdraw northeastern, southern, and western schools. But that's not the point. 

I suppose you could make the argument that you're attempting to maximize your attendance by having it farther east as the midwest fanbases are willing to go further.

There's no evidence of that. The evidence that exists (which is on page 4 of this seven-page NCAA report) simply indicates that midwestern schools (from the Great Lakes Region, Midwest Region, and the midwestern section of the West Region) outdraw schools from other parts of the country. It says nothing about how far those fans are willing to travel.

If D3 were really trying to cut down on travel they might move more towards the D-1 ratio of at-large bids regardless of region to automatic bids so maybe the final 4 could include 4 midwest teams.

Budget is a high priority, but it's not the highest priority. Equal access for member schools and conferences is a higher priority. Since the participation ratio of D3 tournaments is 6.5:1, and D3 tourney sizes are capped at 64 teams, the NCAA won't keep piling on at-large berths for the D3 men's basketball tourney. Nor will they take anybody's automatic bid away, unless the league in question dips below the required number of schools to keep the bid. And, again, the problem exists of how to compare at-large teams on a national basis in a division which has very little inter-regional play during the regular season (and which, in fact, discourages inter-regional play by establishing regional minimums as part of the scheduling criteria with regard to qualfications).

Does the NCAA seek out bids?  Surely it's an event that a lot of places in the Midwest would be happy to host, but they might just be wasting their time submitting a bid if the NCAA is happy enough with Salem to not be exploring other sites.

Somebody who has connections to the championships committee, such as Pat or D-Mac or Bob, can better answer that question than I can.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I don't see the Northeast having good crowds compared to the Midwest.  Cabrini averages 250, NESCAC schools like Williams and Amherst average 600.  Whitewater and St. Thomas average 900 while Stevens Point averages 1500.

Where are you coming up with this average? At Salem? Seems more like a stat during the season and I can tell you from experience that some SID's don't even count the attendance, others guess, etc. and those numbers also have to consider the size of gymnasiums both at home and on the road making those numbers completely flawed.

I am saying that in Salem many schools have impressed with their attendance from beyond the Midwest and other locals. You are making assumptions not based on facts or something you have personal experience with... and attendance is one of those. I am pretty sure Cabrini brought more than 250 people to Salem; Williams and Amherst have always had very good crowds... etc. Furthermore, consider the fact that many times schools are on spring breaks and I know for a fact that schools that had great attendance one year didn't the next because of it.

I suppose you could make the argument that you're attempting to maximize your attendance by having it farther east as the midwest fanbases are willing to go further.

That is not at all what I am trying to argue. I am simply saying that your data-set and reasoning are flawed because you are discounting schools in the Northeast and elsewhere (by the way, don't put Cabrini in your schools from the Northeast, they are a Mid-Atlantic team and should be considered as such) when arguing a tournament should be held in the Midwest. I would also counter that while some schools in the Midwest have traveled well, others have not. And that is the case across the board. Some would argue the Great Lakes have had some phenomenal crowds (all-be-it closer) and certainly if you have an ODAC school in Salem... the crowds are huge (aka Hampton-Sydney, Virginia Wesleyan, Randolph-Macon, and Guilford).

If D3 were really trying to cut down on travel they might move more towards the D-1 ratio of at-large bids regardless of region to automatic bids so maybe the final 4 could include 4 midwest teams.

To be frank, you need to start learning more about how the tournament system works. As Sager pointed out, the D1 system, especially for basketball, is an aberration of how NCAA tournaments are normally selected. I am not positive, but I believe the 6.5 ratio is not exclusive to D3. I think many national tournaments including in D1 have this ration. If D1 basketball had that ratio, you would see 53 teams in the D1 tournament... and we know why they have more than 64 (hint: money!).

Furthermore, we have seen a ton of adjustments and creativeness from the national committee in recent years that have essentially eliminated the "bracket" or "pod of death" we typical have seen. This has actually resulted in teams from different regions not meeting until potentially the semi-finals or even the championships (Amherst and Williams had that chance in Salem, but Amherst lost in the semis). You will most likely NEVER see four teams from the same region ever meet in the Final Four... for all of the reasons Sager has pointed out: budget, travel, etc.

Does the NCAA seek out bids?  Surely it's an event that a lot of places in the Midwest would be happy to host, but they might just be wasting their time submitting a bid if the NCAA is happy enough with Salem to not be exploring other sites.

I am not sure that the NCAA seeks out bids, but everyone knows it is a two-year deal and anyone is able to bid on the chance to host if they so choose. Could the fact that not many bids have taken place because of how well Salem does their job? Sure. However, it has not been the reason why no bids have gone elsewhere. Again, other bids have been placed... but have not been strong enough to relocated from Salem. I know on several occasions that those interested in bidding on the championship weekend have been to Salem to see how they do things... how that is impacted a potential bid or not... I am unsure. I will try and get more info on that if I can... but some of that may not be for public consumption.

Let me go on to say this, AO... while I appreciate your passion and interest in all of this... please consider taking the time to hone up on how things are done. While this is the off-season and certainly makes handling these questions easier... I find some of your questions based on nothing more than assumptions and perceptions based on nothing related to D3 or how things are done. Most of us here are trying to help educate, so please consider most of this information from the likes of Pat, Bob, Sager, myself, and other sallwarts as being something you can learn from... even if it goes against your opinion.

[AO]

Dave, I certainly am learning during this discussion; I'm not doing a good enough job of acknowledging your points before asking more questions.

I think Mr. Sager will probably have all sorts of problems with your explanations for lower attendance in the East.  While there may be thousands more from those schools that are itching to jump on the bandwagon, their attendance numbers are clearly below the midwest powers.  I am unaware of many schools in the East whose numbers may not reflect the fanbase as their small gym consistently sells out.  The fact that they have traveled well to the final four would also have to be weighed alongside the fact that Salem is much closer.  Hard to judge who travels better at similar distances when d3 has been at the same site for 16 years.

Why would the bidding process not be for public consumption?  D3hoops has had pretty good info on every other part of the tournament.

[Gregory Sager]

Salem's not as close to the schools in the northeastern part of the country as you seem to think it is, AO. Here's the distance to Salem from each of the Northeast Region and East Region schools that've gone there within the past dozen years:

Williams	625 miles (10 1/2 hours)
Rochester	550 miles (9 1/4 hours)
Amherst	630 miles (10 1/2 hours)
Middlebury	700 miles (12 hours)
Salem State	700 miles (12 hours)

Richard Stockton fans had a seven-and-a-half-hour trip to get to Salem in '09. Even the Pennsylvania-based schools (Ursinus, York, F&M, Elizabethtown) are a five-and-a-half to seven-hour journey from Salem.

As for this:

I think Mr. Sager will probably have all sorts of problems with your explanations for lower attendance in the East.

... I completely agree with D-Mac's statement about attendance:

I can tell you from experience that some SID's don't even count the attendance, others guess, etc. and those numbers also have to consider the size of gymnasiums both at home and on the road making those numbers completely flawed.

I think that you can draw some general overall trends from region to region (or, more precisely, from league to league) from the stats in the NCAA release I linked to earlier, but on a school-by-school basis there's a high degree of variability in terms of how accurately attendance stats are kept. And when D-Mac says this:

I am saying that in Salem many schools have impressed with their attendance from beyond the Midwest and other locals. You are making assumptions not based on facts or something you have personal experience with... and attendance is one of those. I am pretty sure Cabrini brought more than 250 people to Salem; Williams and Amherst have always had very good crowds... etc. Furthermore, consider the fact that many times schools are on spring breaks and I know for a fact that schools that had great attendance one year didn't the next because of it.

... I take him at his word. Why? Because he's been to Salem for the Final Four plenty of times, and you and I haven't.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I am unaware of many schools in the East whose numbers may not reflect the fanbase as their small gym consistently sells out.  The fact that they have traveled well to the final four would also have to be weighed alongside the fact that Salem is much closer.  Hard to judge who travels better at similar distances when d3 has been at the same site for 16 years.

First off, why would you be aware of a fan base in the East, Northeast, etc. that may not be reflective of a small gym selling out? Are you saying that as fact? Indicating you are not knowledgeable in this arena?

Attendance numbers in stats or box scores are not indicative of a school's or team's fan base. Furthermore, since making the championship tournament in Division III basketball is so much harder than say D1 for even the powers of D3... students and the fan base tend to attend in far bigger numbers than say a regular game during the week or weekend. They want to be part of the festivities especially when schools tend to provide buses to Salem. Also, remember that the entire fan base pretty much can not get to the home games in the NCAA tournament as the tickets are divided up amongst the four teams in a pod - with the home team getting the majority but NOT all. So yes, even in the NCAA tournament in a sold-out gym that seats 1800 (Amherst), the entire fan base for the home team isn't getting into the game.

Salem's numbers aren't huge... but they can be pretty big. However, saying a team has a strong or not-strong fan-base based on attendance numbers from the NCAA is flawed.

Also, as Mr. Sager said... the trip is far longer than you expect and if any of these fan bases decide to drive... they have to deal with New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC traffic (or ways around it) that makes those trips far longer. I should know... I drive from northern Baltimore to Salem every year - twice a year minimum - which is a 4 hour drive IF weather and traffic cooperate and I drive to Down East Maine at least once a year or 18 months to visit my family.

Those times Sager has pointed out are also approximate as not only traffic but stops along the way could adjust for even a person with a lead foot. My trip to my family's home should take me 13 to 13 1/2 hours... but I have done it in 12 1/2 and I have also done it in 16+ hours (in one day, mind you). All because the East Coast is a challenging place to drive for so many different reasons.

Why would the bidding process not be for public consumption?  D3hoops has had pretty good info on every other part of the tournament.

I am saying parts of the process may not be up for public consumption, just parts of it like why the NCAA decided to give the bid to Salem (which I know for a fact has happened more times than not because there simply weren't any other bids). Do you know every detail of bids for the Olympics or World Cup? Heck the Super Bowl? While I am sure plenty of information can be gathered about potential bids, I am just saying don't be surprised if some or much of the information isn't for public consumption due to legal or other reasons. I will do my best to find out what I can... but I am just making sure you realize there are no promises here.

And yes... to answer the question not really asked but alluded to by Mr. Sager... I have been to 12 straight basketball championship weekends in Salem along with two Stagg Bowls... so far.