MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

matblake · February 08, 2006, 02:22:26 PM

If Carthage is able to get past the Bluejays tonight, what do people think of their chances of somehow clawing their way into the conference tourney? I can't seem to figure out if it is even possible. It appears that it is still possible, but they would need some major help. Any thoughts?

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 08, 2006, 02:23:21 PM

Quote from: matblake on February 08, 2006, 02:22:26 PM
If Carthage is able to get past the Bluejays tonight, what do people think of their chances of somehow clawing their way into the conference tourney? I can't seem to figure out if it is even possible. It appears that it is still possible, but they would need some major help. Any thoughts?

We covered this yesterday, go through the pages. Short story: they have to beat NCC too just to have a chance.

matblake · February 08, 2006, 03:05:52 PM

Thanks Hoops Fan. I read through the pages prior to posting, but I guess I just didn't understand. Sorry for the "re-hash."

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 08, 2006, 04:03:40 PM

1.   Lawrence   17-0   19-0
2.   Augustana (Illinois)   18-0   19-1
3.   Transylvania   17-3   18-3
4.   Carroll (Wisconsin)   16-2   18-2
4.   Illinois Wesleyan   11-3   17-3
6   Lakeland   14-3   18-5
7.   North Central (Illinois)   10-4   16-4
8.   Washington U. in St. Louis   10-5   13-7

Brick · February 08, 2006, 04:23:29 PM

Looking and hoping for a Beloit or Carroll upset of Lawrence in the next week

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 08, 2006, 04:27:08 PM

WashU did a good job sneaking into the top eight, with many similarly qualified candidates at about the same level. I was surprised they made it in.

titanhammer · February 08, 2006, 04:35:27 PM

Do the committee members vote on the regional rankings? Doesn't look like they went strictly by in region record or QOWI (IWU's is higher than Transylvania and Carroll).

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 08, 2006, 04:37:23 PM

I'm not sure if they vote or they conference call and get a consensus. It won't go strictly by QOWI; they factor in in-region winning percentage.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) · February 08, 2006, 04:41:29 PM

I thought they would stick closer to QOWI, as they have done in the past. However, I think they tend to put more weight on it as the season comes to a close. The nature of the formula makes it more accurate as the season progresses. Some of it may have to do with IWU only having the 14 in-region games as compared to 20 and 18 from CC and Transy.

advoice · February 08, 2006, 04:50:02 PM

I am confused as to why DIII even does regional rankings. It has nothing to do with the NCAA selection?? Pool A is the automatic bids, Pool B is for the independants without a conference and Pool C is compared nationally. What am I missing?

DII does regional rankings because that is how the tournament bids are given out. The top eight from each of the eight regions gets in. There is no cross-over of region. The positive part is that you usually have true comparison's when selecting the teams. The negative is that if you get in a strong region, it is difficult to advance.

Titan Q · February 08, 2006, 05:00:30 PM

The Lawrence vs Augustana #1 seed battle is pretty significant. It could be the difference in hosting a sectional or not. Right now both are undefeated in the region, but Lawrence has the slightly higher QOWI (11.529 vs 11.444) which is why I assume they get the nod in regional poll #1.

Here are the remaining regular season games and the QOWI points available for each, based on opponents' current in-region winning %...

Lawrence
vs Beloit, .529 (win = 12 pts, lose = 4)
@ Carroll, .889 (win = 15, lose = 7)
vs St. Norbert, .250 (win = 8, loss = 0)

Augustana
@ Wheaton, .375 (win = 11, loss = 3)
@ Millikin, .412 (win = 11, loss = 3
vs Illinois Wesleyan, .800 (win = 14, loss = 6)
@ North Central, .733 (win = 15, loss = 7)

These QOWI numbers are tough to track though because of the fluctuation in opponent records. For example, if Elmhurst wins at Carthage tonight the Bluejays move back to .667 in the region. This makes Augie's home win vs EC worth 14 and the road win vs 15. Right now the Vikes are getting 12 and 13 for those two games. This change alone might be enough to make up that 0.085 difference in current Lawrence vs Augustana QOWI.

Augie needs to keep that close. "Revenue potential" is a designated NCAA consideration in determining a Sectional site...the Carver Center holds 3000 and Alexander Gym at Lawrence holds 1000. If the seeding is close, my guess is that Augie would get it.

Titan Q · February 08, 2006, 05:11:02 PM

advoice, I'm with you -- I do not see much value in the regional rankings nowadays. I guess all it does is let us know where some of the teams stack up vs each other at this point. We know that Transylvania would be seeded higher than Illinois Wesleyan if the tournament started today, for example.

But then again, since they don't go strictly by seeds in making the bracket, who really cares? Geography skews the bracket anyway.

augie_superfan · February 08, 2006, 05:20:55 PM

Regional Ranking [in-region win % rank] (QOWI rank)

1. Lawrence [ t-1 ] ( 1 )
2. Augustana    [ t-1 ] ( 2 )
3. Transy    [ 4 ] ( 4 )
4. Carroll    [ 3 ] ( 5 )
5. Illinois Wesleyan [ 5 ] ( 3 )
6. Lakeland       [ 6 ] ( 8 )
7. North Central    [ 8 ] ( 6 )
8. Wash U       [ t-12 ] ( 7 )

Others:

Hanover [ 10 ] & ( 9 )
Elmhurst [ 11 ] & ( 10 )
Franklin [ 9 ] & ( 11 )
MSOE [ 7 ] & ( 12 )

Looks like they did a fairly good combination of the two main factors that everyone worries about.

Titan Q · February 08, 2006, 05:22:31 PM

A nice feature on IWU senior Keelan Amelianovich in today's Pantagraph...

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2006/02/08/sports/106057.txt

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2006/02/08/sports/106053.txt

The IWU/Millikin game is on the main WJBC stream this evening, with pregame coverage at 7:05pm...

http://www.wjbc.com/

veterancciwfan · February 08, 2006, 05:35:58 PM

Unless I can't count to 12, which is possible if I'm suffering from a Red Bull deficiency, IWU has 12 regional wins, not 11 as reflected in the 1st regional rankings. 5 nonconf. (Wabash, U. of Chicago, IL College, Wash. U. & Hanover) + 7 conf. wins. I was discussing this issue with my cat Remus this morning and he also came up with 12. Does this mean that perhaps the regional committee can not count to 12-or are Remus and I missing something?
Please help me!

Pat: I promise this is the last post I will make about the D3 tournament selection process. You agree with Stat and I that it's stupid but referred to the fact that the D3 schools voted on the A, B, and C bid procedure. The A and B bids certainly give all conferences, weak or strong, participation in the tournament. Why can't the C bids be awared to the best remaining teams on a national basis? I assume your answer will be that the C bid process does achieve that goal or that the tournament committee does its best to achieve that goal.