MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

Final from Bloomington:

Illinois Wesleyan 78
Wheaton 71

If Wheaton can find their way into the NCAA Tournament somehow that's going to be an awfully difficult first round match-up for a higher seeded team.  They may accumulate too many losses to get a Pool C bid though.

They already have. The Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance have six losses thus far. If they win out and lose a CCIW tourney game, they'll go into the Pool C selection process with seven losses, which is typically the kiss of death.

I think that there's a solid possibility that this will be a two-bids-only postseason for the CCIW.

[Gregory Sager]

Augustana 73, North Park 58

Juwan Henry: 28 pts, 3 stls
Aaron Weaver: 16 pts, 10 rebs

Hunter Hill: 16 pts (4-7 trey), 5:2 a:to
Mark Roth: 15 pts (5-9 trey)
Ben Ryan: 12 pts, 7 rebs
Nic Hoepfner: 8 rebs

Interesting game at Carver tonight, as a North Park team that really had no business hanging around against Augustana nevertheless managed to do just that right up until the end of the game.

NPU led for the first eight minutes of the ballgame, but after Augie woke up and started hitting all of the open looks that the visiting Vikings were conceding, the hosts ran off a 12-0 run to turn a five-point North Park lead into an 18-11 Augie advantage with nine minutes to go in the half. The two teams then traded baskets and Augie went into the locker room up 32-24.

Augie finally began to get the occasional good look inside and went up by 17, 56-39, with just under nine minutes to go in the game. But the pesky Parkers did not throw in the towel. Juwan Henry essentially put the team on his back and got North Park back to within six on a couple of occasions, the last one being at the 2:51 mark (62-56), before Augie locked it up tight at the free-throw line.

Chris Ford and Dan Sand did an excellent job as always on the webcast call, and Dan astutely noted early on that the game was really as much Augustana playing against itself as anything else, given the wide talent disparity between the two teams. Tom Slyder basically made the decision to stick with a matchup zone (incorrectly tabbed by Chris and Dan as a 2-3 zone, BTW) the whole way, and the Park packed that zone in close throughout the first half, taking away the size-and-skill advantage Augie enjoyed underneath. That left it up to the shooters from long range, and Hunter Hill and Mark Roth didn't disappoint the Augie faithful. They were the difference in the game when Augie finally turned it around. In the second half, NPU extended the matchup zone ever-so-slightly out from the basket, and Augie was able at last to get some shots in close for Ben Ryan. He was the big difference for Augie in the second half.

Juwan Henry had a tremendous game for NPU, made even more astounding by the fact that he started off 0-8 from the field, as he made 11 of his last 15 shots for the night. Augie wasn't letting him get to the rim -- most of his misses were blocked layup attempts, as the total of three blocks listed in the box score for Augie was a serious undercount -- so he wisely pulled up in the lane time and time again for eight- to twelve-footers that he knocked down with aplomb. He's seeing how the league is adjusting to him as the season goes on, and he's making the counter-adjustments necessary for him to keep putting the ball in the basket. He's turning into a fantastic CCIW basketball player.

Two of NPU's starters, PG JayQuan Lee and PF Michael Hutchinson, didn't play tonight, and neither did reserve SG Ryan Hyrn. Hyrn's DNP-CD doesn't surprise me, as he's so deep in Tom Slyder's doghouse that he smells like Snausages. But the absences of Lee and Hutchinson were baffling, as I'm pretty sure that I saw the backs of both of their heads on the North Park bench during the webcast.

I doubt that Grey Giovanine was very happy with Augie's performance tonight ... although a win's a win, and he's certainly not going to give this one back. As I said, I think that there's a certain amount of truth to what Dan said about Augie playing against itself tonight. But, on the other hand, this was the fourth straight game in which North Park's opponent (and its fans) have left the gym saying, "We played a subpar game tonight." Sooner or later, somebody's going to figure out the common element in those four straight subpar games. NPU is a woefully undermanned team, but it's also very scrappy, and Tom Slyder seems to be squeezing about as much out of this crew as he possibly can in order to ugly up games and keep the Vikings competitive.

I'm not too thrilled about the prospect of having to go into King Arena on Wednesday to face a Wheaton team that's reeling from two straight losses, though.

[iwu70]

Titans get the important win at home vs. WC.

Jordan Nelson coming out party, with an excellent game.  Titans did a pretty good job on Peters.  Mainly Dortch.  Davis also with a strong game scoring and on the glass.

As I've often said, when the Titans get to 78 points in these important, hard-fought games, they almost always win.

IWU70

[Titan Q]

Watched the IWU/Wheaton game from here in the Big D.  A few thoughts...

* The CCIW is a great league because of games like this one.  That was just a really good basketball game between two very good teams.

* Tyler Peters is just hard to deal with.  As Ron Rose says, he "distorts the game."  Peters can just do so many things to score.  IWU had to try so many different things just to make it hard on him.

* This was Jordan Nelson's best game as a Titan - he was outstanding.  Nelson wanted the ball and he hit some huge shots and FTs.  This game could lead to more good things for Nelson...who could be the key to the rest of IWU's season.  He is a difference maker. 

* Victor Davis was great tonight for IWU.  He is just such a physical presence in the paint.

* Wheaton and IWU are two extremely well coached teams.


Wheaton was great tonight - made it really hard for the Titans to grind out that win at home.

[petemcb]

I suspect that a check of CCIW scores over the years will show that most of the time any team that scores 78 points wins the game.  That's a check I'm too tired to make tonight, but I'm guessing its a safe bet.

[Gregory Sager]

It's been eight years since a CCIW team averaged 78 points per game, so ... yeah, saying that Illinois Wesleyan (or any CCIW team) wins most of the time that it scores 78 points or more falls under the category of a truism.

[iwu70]

I agree with Greg that this now looks more and more like a two-bid year for the CCIW, unless a team wins the CCIW tournament AQ spot in a big upset.  Guess it could happen with CC or WC, even though they may have 7+ losses at that point.

IWU70

[iwu70]

I give a lot of credit to Zman and Dortch who defended Peters much of the first half.  Yes, Peters got his eventually, but Titans did a pretty good job overall on him.  Great to see Nelson have a great game, and hope he just keeps on coming out, putting it up.  He had several great cross-over moves tonight to get in the paint and score or dish off.  Think of what the Titans have on the perimeter with Dolan, Overstreet, Sodemann, Nelson, and Mayberger for three shooting . . . and to think the guy that led the Titans in CCIW scoring last year (Zimmer) is sitting way down on the pine and getting no PT at all so far.  Yes, Nelson could be a big difference- maker along with the others (and I still have dreams of Rossi on the perimeter dancing in my head!).  I think Ron Rose may have a talk with Zman and Vic Davis about taking so many treys -- after tonight's game.   Vic Davis had a very strong game tonight rebounding and moves in the paint, near the hoop.  Really good.

IWU70

[rollthunder]

Final from Bloomington:

Illinois Wesleyan 78
Wheaton 71

If Wheaton can find their way into the NCAA Tournament somehow that's going to be an awfully difficult first round match-up for a higher seeded team.  They may accumulate too many losses to get a Pool C bid though.

They already have. The Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance have six losses thus far. If they win out and lose a CCIW tourney game, they'll go into the Pool C selection process with seven losses, which is typically the kiss of death.

I think that there's a solid possibility that this will be a two-bids-only postseason for the CCIW.

Even with all of the games against regionally ranked opponents?

[Titan Q]

For perspective on Pool C in general...

Here are the Pool C selections from last season, in the order I projected they were selected:

1. UW-Stevens Point (West, WIAC) - 21-5 (.808)/.585/7-2 
2. Rochester (East, UAA) - 20-4 (.833)/.575/7-3   
3. Williams (Northeast, NESCAC) - 21-4 (.840)/.577/5-4
4. Virginia Wesleyan (South, ODAC) - 18-6 (.750)/.560/8-5
5. Middlebury (Northeast, NESCAC) - 19-3 (.864)/.545/2-3
6. Wooster (Great Lakes, NCAC) - 22-5 (.815)/.557/3-2
7. Illinois Wesleyan (Midwest, CCIW) - 18-5 (.783)/.556/5-4 
8. Mary Hardin-Baylor (South, ASC) - 23-5 (.821)/.550/3-3
9. MIT (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-5 (.792)/.555/4-4
10. Wheaton (Midwest, CCIW) - 17-6 (.739)/.566/4-4
11. Hampden-Sydney (South, ODAC) - 19-4 (.826)/.512/6-3
12. Emory (South, UAA) - 19-6 (.760)/.556/5-4
13. Wesley (Mid-Atlantic, CAC) - 17-4 (.810)/.530/5-3
14. Plattsburgh State (East, SUNYAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.559/5-5
15. Transylvania (Midwest, HCAC) - 19-6 (.760)/.548/4-1 
16. Springfield (Northeast, NEWMAC) - 19-8 (.704)/.575/4-6
17. Stevens (East, E8) - 20-5 (.800)/.533/3-3 
18. Rutgers-Newark (Atlantic, NJAC) - 19-7 (.731)/.548/3-4
19. Randolph (South, ODAC) - 15-6 (.714)/.520/4-5

And here are the teams I projected were at the table for the final round (round 19):

(AT) SUNY-Old Westbury (Atlantic, Sky) - 21-3 (.875)/.500/2-1
(E) Oswego St (SUNYAC) - 19-8 (.704)/.518/2-6
(GL) Thomas More (PrAC) - 22-4 (.846)/.512/1-3 
(MA) Albright (MACC) - 20-6 (.769)/.546/3-1
(MW) Augustana (CCIW) - 18-8 (.692)/.553/2-8
(NE) Brandeis (Northeast, UAA) - 17-8 (.680)/.569/4-7 
(S) Randolph (ODAC) - 15-6 (.714)/.520/4-5
(W) Buena Vista (IIAC) - 18-7 (.720)/.563/1-2


Numbers are: in-region winning %/in-region SOS/in-region results vs regionally ranked

[Titan Q]

As we look at where Wheaton sits as a Pool C candidate, we know the following as of today...

* Wheaton is 10-6 (.625), and all of those games count as "in-region."  There is a new rule this year that if you play 70%+ of your games vs teams defined to be in-region (within the actual Midwest Region, within 200 miles, or in the same administrative region), then all of your D3 counts count in the selection process.

* I don't have Wheaton's SOS (as calculated in the actual selection process), but we do know that the Thunder have played a tremendous schedule.  Massey has Wheaton's SOS at #4 nationally, for example.  It's possible Wheaton has one of those gaudy .560ish SOS numbers.

*  In terms of in-region results vs regionally ranked teams, Wheaton is 1-3 right now vs teams I would project to be ranked in the Midwest - beat Augustana, lost to Wash U, Illinois Wesleyan and Carthage.


In terms of what Wheaton would have to do to get a Pool C bid...

* Wheaton has 9 CCIW games left.  8-1 would put the Thunder at 18-7, and then 1-1 in the conference tournament would be 19-8 (.704) on Selection Sunday.  7-2 would put the Thunder at 17-8, and then 1-1 in the conference tournament would be 18-9 (.667).

* I don't see .667 getting in.  If you look at my Pool C list from 2012-13 (above), the lowest in-region winning % to get in was Springfield at .704, and then Randolph at .714.

* So to get to the end of the bubble, I believe Wheaton has to go 8-1 the rest of the way (finishing 11-3 in the CCIW), and then go 1-1 in the conference tournament.  I don't really think this is all that crazy.  Wheaton has now played @ IWU and @ Carthage.  I can see Wheaton winning every game except the one in Rock Island.  (I can also see the Thunder losing a couple they shouldn't.)

* Wheaton will pick up potential "in-region results vs regionally ranked" by playing Augie, IWU, and Carthage again.  Not only are wins in this criterion important, but so are total games.  Like Randolph last year - they played 9 in-region games vs regionally ranked teams, going 4-5.  I'm convinced the total # of 9 got Randolph in as much as the 4 wins did. 

* At something like 19-8 (.704)/.560/3-4 on Selection Sunday I believe Wheaton would have a pretty good chance to get in.  Thunder fans would have to spend Saturday afternoon watching live streams from across Division III, sweating out conference tournament upsets in games involving teams they've barely heard of...but hey, that's a pretty fun little Saturday to spend actually.


I don't think the Thunder are done as a Pool C candidate.

[Titan Q]

They already have. The Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance have six losses thus far. If they win out and lose a CCIW tourney game, they'll go into the Pool C selection process with seven losses, which is typically the kiss of death.

I think that there's a solid possibility that this will be a two-bids-only postseason for the CCIW.

Three teams got Pool C bids last year with 7 in-region losses or more - Plattsburgh St (7), Springfield (8), and Rutgers-Newark (7).

In 2011-12, 4 teams got Pool C bids with 7 - UW-Stevens Point, Ohio Wesleyan, Illinois Wesleyan, and Gustavus Adolphus. http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.3855

[kiko]

I'm not sold on Carthage attaining regionally ranked status -- if they do, they will be at the bottom of the list.

But that would sure help the Wheaties' chances.

[USee]

Tyler Peters came on strong in the second half, but it wasn't enough - iirc, he had 4 in the 1st half, 11 in the 2nd.

Ypsi, check your math.  I would have expected more from a stats professor. 

There have been several games where teams try to contain TP and have some success for a half. No one has stopped him for a whole game   

[USee]

I thought the mini run by IWU at about the 7 min mark last night was one of the keys.  They extended their lead to 5 and the Thunder could never get it under a 3 pt lead.  Tues her had a wide open look at a three to tie when it was 67-64 and missed with about 2min to play and it was over from there.  Titans made their FT down the stretch.