MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwu70]

Very solid, important home win for IWU tonight.  Pretty clear from early on which was the stronger team tonight, much deeper and more experienced team too.  Coming out party indeed for Jordan Nelson with 25.  As Q has mentioned, he's a great weapon when stretching Ds, hitting treys.  He had 6 of them tonight. 

Nelson 25, 6 treys
Mayberger getting the start (he will some nights, may not others), 13 and 8
Davis 13 and 6

Good minutes from many off the bench, esp. Dortch, Dolan and Marietti. 

Hunter Hill was contained, with only 13 tonight.  Not like last time in RI where he basically ran all over the place, going pretty much where he wanted to go. 

Final:  84-69 and a good overall defensive game for the Titans tonight.  IWU now 17-3, 7-2 -- yes, game on with Wheaton it would appear.  They are playing great.

Seems a lot of big red balloons popped in Kenosha tonight.  Sorry Gramps.  They really took it to you tonight.  Conference could be decided on the last night of the season @ Wheaton.

Congrats to the TITANS and Coach Rose on a very important home win.  Keep it rolling, get it all peaking at the right time.  Great to see the depth of this Titan team paying off in the grind, down the stretch.  Continues to amaze me the guys Rose has to bring off the bench and the quality of play IWU has 1-11 in the rotation. (actually even deeper if need be). 

IWU70

[John Gleich]

Anyone else take issue with Wash U's ranking ABOVE IWU?

I am a Washington University partisan and there is probably no team I would rather see my team beat than Illinois Wesleyan. Having said that, I do not believe that they should be ranked above IWU.  But, if I am voting, how do I keep IWU ranked at No. 4 knowing that they lost twice in the past few weeks?

The obvious problem for Washington University is depth. They were quickly exposed in Bloomington with Klimek playing only 16 minutes. Aboona picked up fouls early too while Burt and Cooney fouled out.  But, they have not lost since losing to IWU in early December and have a very strong strength of schedule.

The head to head is obviously a concern, but there is seriously no way we will see anything like that score should both teams get the rematch in the postseason.

I don't disagree about knocking IWU down a peg or two... but if you look at WHEN they lost points in the poll, it wasn't at the right time. The lost points after they lost, then they lost MORE points after they went 1-0.

[USee]

After tonight I think the CCIW POY award became a one man race. Tyler Peters really had a sensational game with 17 pts and 6 assists. He shared time with Teuscher and it was their defense that changed the game by holding MK to 5 pts on 1-13 shooting and 0-3 from 3pt. Peters got everyone involved and did what was needed by the team. Tonight, the team rode the hot hand and defense of Brayden Teuscher and TP set him up to have that night. other nights, his team needs him to be the "alpha male" as Schauer described it on WETN and he delivers. He has been the total package for the Thunder this season.

[sac]

These four schools............

Carthage 74 Calvin 68
Hope 80  Carthage 58
Wheaton 80  Hope 61
Calvin 78 Wheaton 51
Hope 71 Calvin 63
Carthage 67 Wheaton 62
Wheaton 87 Carthage 54
Hope 83  Calvin 65

I think Hope wins.

[iwu70]

Point goes down.  Cabrini likely to #1?  I do think IWU should be ranked above Wash U, given the head-to-head earlier.  Clearly Augie will drop out of the top 25 and Wheaton will likely enter it.  No further love for Carthage or Augie . . .  only the hope of the AQ via the CCIW tournament, if they make it. 

Five games to go -- and some very key games yet to be played.  Looks like Elmhurst might make the CCIW tournament.  What a good beginning for the Baines era at EC.

Key game now for IWU is that away game at North Central. 

Keep it rolling, Titans.  Grind them out . . . the depth and bench play really coming to the fore now.  A new "difference maker" almost every game.  Great to see that break-out, explosive game by Jordan Nelson tonight.   Wheaton clearly playing well, peaking at the right time.  WC and IWU shooting for 12-2.

IWU70

[Titan Q]

Updated Massey:

#3 Illinois Wesleyan
#12 Wheaton
#25 Augustana
#37 Carthage
#89 North Central
#90 Elmhurst
#202 Millikin
#320 North Park

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb2014&sub=11620

[mwunder]

IWU @ Wheaton decides the host of the tourney.

IWU--W (make-up), W, W, W, W, W    12-2  (Host tourney)
Carthage--L, W, W, L, W                      10-4  (Undefeated at home for season)
Wheaton--W, W, W, W, L                     11-3  (#2 seed in tourney)
Augie--L, L, W, W, W                            8-6   (#4 seed)
Elmhurst--W (make-up), W, L, L, L, L    6-8   (outside looking in)

Lookin good so far.  Carthage needs to re-group and put this one behind them and play up to their potential on Sat.

[bopol]

Point goes down.  Cabrini likely to #1?  I do think IWU should be ranked above Wash U, given the head-to-head earlier.  Clearly Augie will drop out of the top 25 and Wheaton will likely enter it.  No further love for Carthage or Augie . . .  only the hope of the AQ via the CCIW tournament, if they make it. 

Five games to go -- and some very key games yet to be played.  Looks like Elmhurst might make the CCIW tournament.  What a good beginning for the Baines era at EC.

Key game now for IWU is that away game at North Central. 

Keep it rolling, Titans.  Grind them out . . . the depth and bench play really coming to the fore now.  A new "difference maker" almost every game.  Great to see that break-out, explosive game by Jordan Nelson tonight.   Wheaton clearly playing well, peaking at the right time.  WC and IWU shooting for 12-2.

IWU70

UWSP should still be number 1.  They lost a game in OT on the road to a Top 10 team and have played a much tougher schedule than Cabrini.  That said, I think Cabrini will be #1 next week.

Wash U and IWU are very close, but I probably would give the edge to Wash U based on 2 losses (WashU) vs. 3 (IWU) as both have placed very tough schedules.  Personally, since Carthage beat both of them, I hope they are #3 and #4 when the final rankings comes out (or higher, but I don't see anyone passing UWSP and Cabrini).

Augie isn't a Top 25 team right now and Carthage might be closer, but probably not.  That said, they are both between 26 and 50 without much doubt in my mind and should be bubble Pool C teams.  The problem (IMHO) is that Wheaton has been vastly underrated all year.  They've lost 6 games, but have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (Massey has them at #2 on SOS and so did KnightSlappy).  They should be in the second ten easily.

I think Carthage is in decent shape for a Pool C bid provided they don't go over 8 losses.  They have 5 (maybe 6) wins against opponents that are likely to be regionally ranked (Wash U, IWU, Wheaton, Calvin, Eastern Conn, maybe UW-Platteville).  Last year, when Augie was probably left on the table, they were just 2-8 against RRO.  Carthage is probably 5-5 against RRO with probably 3 more games to be played against them (and will have wins vs. IWU and WashU).

Augie is in worse shape as they are not playing very well right now.  I figure their best wins are IWU, St. Olaf, Carthage, Chicago, UW-Lacrosse.  That's 3 to possibly 5 RRO wins, which puts them in better shape than last year, but they have to stop the bleeding. 

Basically, I think that Saturday's Augie at Carthage game is almost a play-in for Pool C as it'll probably determine who's above who in the regional rankings and since the one on top will be one of the last ones in, they will probably essentially block the other.

[havej]

Didn't see the Carthage - Wheaton game but just saw the box score.  Remember reading earlier in the week that Kelly was up watching film to see where his "easy" buckets against Wheaton were going to come from.  Guess the film sessions weren't very beneficial. 

IWU70 spoke of the Titans containment of Hill - only saw the first 10 minutes but major kudos to Rose for his ball screen strategy against Hill.  Top of the floor ball screens were trapped hard in an attempt to make him give up the ball and side pick and rolls were iced.  Did not see that the first time the teams met .

 

[voxelmhurst]

Looks like Elmhurst might make the CCIW tournament.  What a good beginning for the Baines era at EC.

It's been 5 years since Elmhurst held a CCIW record over .500 in the month of February. A great start for Coach Baines indeed.

They face a tough 4 game road stretch ahead which will take them to Bloomington, Kenosha, Rock Island, and Decatur. They will log a ton of miles over the next 2 weeks and it will be interesting to see how this team responds.

[USee]

from Q's original posts updates below.

Updated standings, through 2/2
Wheaton,  8-2
Illinois Wesleyan, 7-2
Carthage, 7-3
Elmhurst, 5-4
Augustana, 5-5
North Central, 3-6
Millikin, 1-7
North Park, 1-8


+/- standings, through 2/6
Illinois Wesleyan, +3
Carthage, +3
Wheaton, +3
Augustana, -1
Elmhurst, -1
North Central, -2
Millikin, -2
North Park, -3

+1 for road win, -1 for home loss

Second half schedules for the 5 conference tournament candidates...


* Augustana (5-5) - 1 home/3 road (@ Carthage, @ Millikin, vs Elmhurst, @ NPU)

* Illinois Wesleyan (7-2) - 3 home/2 road (vs NPU,  vs Elmhurst, @ NCC, vs Carthage, @ Wheaton)

* Carthage (7-3) - 3 home/1 road ( vs Augustana, vs Elmhurst, @ IWU, vs Millikin)

* Wheaton (8-2) - 2 home/2 road ( vs Millikin, @ NPU, @ NCC, vs IWU)

* Elmhurst (4-4) - 1 home/4 road (@ Millikin,  @ IWU, @ Carthage, @ Augustana, vs NCC)

[thunder38]

Point goes down.  Cabrini likely to #1?  I do think IWU should be ranked above Wash U, given the head-to-head earlier.  Clearly Augie will drop out of the top 25 and Wheaton will likely enter it.  No further love for Carthage or Augie . . .  only the hope of the AQ via the CCIW tournament, if they make it. 

Five games to go -- and some very key games yet to be played.  Looks like Elmhurst might make the CCIW tournament.  What a good beginning for the Baines era at EC.

Key game now for IWU is that away game at North Central. 

Keep it rolling, Titans.  Grind them out . . . the depth and bench play really coming to the fore now.  A new "difference maker" almost every game.  Great to see that break-out, explosive game by Jordan Nelson tonight.   Wheaton clearly playing well, peaking at the right time.  WC and IWU shooting for 12-2.

IWU70

UWSP should still be number 1.  They lost a game in OT on the road to a Top 10 team and have played a much tougher schedule than Cabrini.  That said, I think Cabrini will be #1 next week.

Wash U and IWU are very close, but I probably would give the edge to Wash U based on 2 losses (WashU) vs. 3 (IWU) as both have placed very tough schedules.  Personally, since Carthage beat both of them, I hope they are #3 and #4 when the final rankings comes out (or higher, but I don't see anyone passing UWSP and Cabrini).

Augie isn't a Top 25 team right now and Carthage might be closer, but probably not.  That said, they are both between 26 and 50 without much doubt in my mind and should be bubble Pool C teams.  The problem (IMHO) is that Wheaton has been vastly underrated all year.  They've lost 6 games, but have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (Massey has them at #2 on SOS and so did KnightSlappy).  They should be in the second ten easily.

I think Carthage is in decent shape for a Pool C bid provided they don't go over 8 losses.  They have 5 (maybe 6) wins against opponents that are likely to be regionally ranked (Wash U, IWU, Wheaton, Calvin, Eastern Conn, maybe UW-Platteville).  Last year, when Augie was probably left on the table, they were just 2-8 against RRO.  Carthage is probably 5-5 against RRO with probably 3 more games to be played against them (and will have wins vs. IWU and WashU).

Augie is in worse shape as they are not playing very well right now.  I figure their best wins are IWU, St. Olaf, Carthage, Chicago, UW-Lacrosse.  That's 3 to possibly 5 RRO wins, which puts them in better shape than last year, but they have to stop the bleeding. 

Basically, I think that Saturday's Augie at Carthage game is almost a play-in for Pool C as it'll probably determine who's above who in the regional rankings and since the one on top will be one of the last ones in, they will probably essentially block the other.

I wouldn't necessarily bank on Wheaton moving in just because of their performance last night. They still only had seven votes and they beat a team that wasn't on the ORV radar. That win might not carry as much weight in the big-picture as it does to us CCIW folk. Also remember that the "Once ranked, always ranked" principle does not apply this year so Carthage and especially Augie are going to need to the chips to fall right in the final rankings for the regional rankings. Wheaton has seemingly moved itself off the bubble with their play the last two weeks, but a slip up prior to the IWU game would put them right back on it.

[USee]

Its a tough system as Wheaton has 6 losses and is or isn't "on the bubble" because of that number. All 6 losses were on the road and 4 of them were to top 25 teams (by 4 @Wooster, by 4 @WashU, by 7 @IWU, by a lot @Calvin....and then by 5 @Carthage and by 1 @Loras). They are a dangerous team with the way they are playing right now. I think if they are able to win the CCIW regular season and go 1-1 in the CCIW tourney, it would be hard to leave them at the Pool C table, particularly since they will have the #1 or #2 SOS in that scenario.

[Titan Q]

I'm still where I was on January 19 - I think Wheaton is very much alive as a Pool C team. 

As we look at where Wheaton sits as a Pool C candidate, we know the following as of today...

* Wheaton is 10-6 (.625), and all of those games count as "in-region."  There is a new rule this year that if you play 70%+ of your games vs teams defined to be in-region (within the actual Midwest Region, within 200 miles, or in the same administrative region), then all of your D3 counts count in the selection process.

* I don't have Wheaton's SOS (as calculated in the actual selection process), but we do know that the Thunder have played a tremendous schedule.  Massey has Wheaton's SOS at #4 nationally, for example.  It's possible Wheaton has one of those gaudy .560ish SOS numbers.

*  In terms of in-region results vs regionally ranked teams, Wheaton is 1-3 right now vs teams I would project to be ranked in the Midwest - beat Augustana, lost to Wash U, Illinois Wesleyan and Carthage.


In terms of what Wheaton would have to do to get a Pool C bid...

* Wheaton has 9 CCIW games left.  8-1 would put the Thunder at 18-7, and then 1-1 in the conference tournament would be 19-8 (.704) on Selection Sunday.  7-2 would put the Thunder at 17-8, and then 1-1 in the conference tournament would be 18-9 (.667).

* I don't see .667 getting in.  If you look at my Pool C list from 2012-13 (above), the lowest in-region winning % to get in was Springfield at .704, and then Randolph at .714.

* So to get to the end of the bubble, I believe Wheaton has to go 8-1 the rest of the way (finishing 11-3 in the CCIW), and then go 1-1 in the conference tournament.  I don't really think this is all that crazy.  Wheaton has now played @ IWU and @ Carthage.  I can see Wheaton winning every game except the one in Rock Island.  (I can also see the Thunder losing a couple they shouldn't.)

* Wheaton will pick up potential "in-region results vs regionally ranked" by playing Augie, IWU, and Carthage again.  Not only are wins in this criterion important, but so are total games.  Like Randolph last year - they played 9 in-region games vs regionally ranked teams, going 4-5.  I'm convinced the total # of 9 got Randolph in as much as the 4 wins did. 

* At something like 19-8 (.704)/.560/3-4 on Selection Sunday I believe Wheaton would have a pretty good chance to get in.  Thunder fans would have to spend Saturday afternoon watching live streams from across Division III, sweating out conference tournament upsets in games involving teams they've barely heard of...but hey, that's a pretty fun little Saturday to spend actually.


I don't think the Thunder are done as a Pool C candidate.

[carthage guy]

Will be interesting to see how Bosko will be able to revive his guys for a BIG alumni night Saturday... My thoughts are " forget about.... ran into a buzz saw"... Carthage just wasnt ready.

Those kinda games require a different level of effort and attention to detail.... Carthage had neither.  Kelly was taken away completely by good defense and no movement on his part to get free looks..Wheaton played like a team that wanted it... well they got it..