MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

Cathage will be 12-6 (Sliver Lake win and Carthage loss won't be on here).

St. Norbert will be high, but I think the 4 CCIW teams have a much better SOS (maybe enough) to take 4 of the first 6.  Rose-Hulman, Defiance and Milwaukee SOE don't have wins against ranked teams. 

EDIT: I still think Carthage will be ranked.  They have a lot of wins against top teams.

I just don't see .650 as being competitive.  Even with all of the good wins, there are just too many losses. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Wins versus ranked teams means nothing to the NCAA...

And SOS isn't the only criteria... win/loss percentage is also a factor along with several other criteria.

[Titan Q]

Wins versus ranked teams means nothing to the NCAA...

To clarify, I'm sure Dave means wins over teams ranked in the D3hoops.com Top 25.  Those aren't a factor.

But, obviously, wins vs regionally ranked teams are very significant...and Carthage has 3 that will end up being biggies:
  - Wash U
  - Wheaton
  - Illinois Wesleyan

Still, I don't think .650 cuts it.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yes... that is what I meant... thanks.

Also, the RACs will not have vRRO as criteria for the first rankings... once they rank their teams, the NCAA national committee will make any adjustments necessarily per vRRO data now available.

[AppletonRocks]

I believe the first regional rankings come out this week.  Here is how the Midwest Region could look...

(Records are for games vs D3 only through Sun 2/9)

Midwest Region Projection
1. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW), 18-3 (.857)
2. Washington U. (UAA), 18-2 (.900)
3. St. Norbert (MWC), 17-1 (.944)
4. Rose-Hulman (HCAC), 17-4 (.810)
5. Wheaton (CCIW), 16-6 (.727)
6. Augustana (CCIW), 16-6 (.727)
7. Defiance (HCAC), 16-4 (.800)
8. Milwaukee Engineering (NACC), 18-4 (.818)
---------------
9. Hanover, (HCAC) 14-7 (.667)
10. Grinnell (MWC), 14-4 (.778)
11. Marian (NACC), 15-6 (.714)
12. Lakeland (NACC), 15-5 (.750)
13. Elmhurst (CCIW), 13-7 (.650)
14. Carthage (CCIW), 13-7 (.650)
15. MacMurray (SLIAC), 14-3 (.824)

Cathage will be 12-6 (Sliver Lake win and Carthage loss won't be on here).

St. Norbert will be high, but I think the 4 CCIW teams have a much better SOS (maybe enough) to take 4 of the first 6.  Rose-Hulman, Defiance and Milwaukee SOE don't have wins against ranked teams. 

EDIT: I still think Carthage will be ranked.  They have a lot of wins against top teams.

Grinnell ranked?  Does anybody watch their games? 

[Titan Q]

Grinnell ranked?  Does anybody watch their games? 

I do not project Grinnell to be regionally ranked this week.

[bopol]

Wins versus ranked teams means nothing to the NCAA...

To clarify, I'm sure Dave means wins over teams ranked in the D3hoops.com Top 25.  Those aren't a factor.

But, obviously, wins vs regionally ranked teams are very significant...and Carthage has 3 that will end up being biggies:
  - Wash U
  - Wheaton
  - Illinois Wesleyan

Still, I don't think .650 cuts it.

And Calvin.  And Eastern Connecticut.  So 5-5 vs RRO, in all likelihood.  RRO counts for all regions now, right?  Not just winning or losing in your region?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wins versus ranked teams means nothing to the NCAA...

To clarify, I'm sure Dave means wins over teams ranked in the D3hoops.com Top 25.  Those aren't a factor.

But, obviously, wins vs regionally ranked teams are very significant...and Carthage has 3 that will end up being biggies:
  - Wash U
  - Wheaton
  - Illinois Wesleyan

Still, I don't think .650 cuts it.

And Calvin.  And Eastern Connecticut.  So 5-5 vs RRO, in all likelihood.  RRO counts for all regions now, right?  Not just winning or losing in your region?

I would project Carthage to finish with 5-6 vs. RRO, but only .64 WP (before the conference tourney) - the RRO is very impressive, but I don't think the overall resume quite does it.

Even if they pull off a win in Bloomington (and otherwise run the schedule), I'd call them on the lower side of the bubble - I think they will have to win the tourney to continue.  Losing to Augie may have been the death knell.

[iwu70]

Thanks, Q, your regional ranking ideas look pretty good to me.   Good luck with the Big D move.  Hope it all goes smoothly.  A big big change.

Wash U won again on Sunday, over Emory.  They are stacking up quite a run of wins.

Big games now for IWU and WC at NCC.  Gotta get one on the road.

Great to see the huge crowd at The Shirk supporting all the good efforts for the "Pink Zone" games.  I'm sure Mia and all her staff are very very happy.  B/N Cancer Center does a great job, a great service to the community.

Also agree with you on the tightening Titan rotation.  I think we're going to see more of Nelson, less of Sodemann, more of Dortch, less of Marietti, and quite a bit more of Mayberger, especially when offense is needed.  He's having a great season -- for a bench player, now a starter.  Zimmer and Anderson will be mainly sitting unless the game is in hand or unless several players are in foul trouble.  I think Dolan's role remains the same, even playing more if Dylan is having a bad night, turning it over, which he can do at times.  Still, he's a great PG, the stick that stirs the Titan cocktail.

IWU70

[Titan Q]

And Calvin.  And Eastern Connecticut.  So 5-5 vs RRO, in all likelihood.  RRO counts for all regions now, right?  Not just winning or losing in your region?

Remember, there is no "results vs regionally ranked" in the first ranking - that starts with ranking #2. 

In this first ranking, I don't see Carthage getting ranked in the Midwest just on their winning %, SOS, and results vs common opponents alone. 

[bopol]

Wins versus ranked teams means nothing to the NCAA...

To clarify, I'm sure Dave means wins over teams ranked in the D3hoops.com Top 25.  Those aren't a factor.

But, obviously, wins vs regionally ranked teams are very significant...and Carthage has 3 that will end up being biggies:
  - Wash U
  - Wheaton
  - Illinois Wesleyan

Still, I don't think .650 cuts it.

And Calvin.  And Eastern Connecticut.  So 5-5 vs RRO, in all likelihood.  RRO counts for all regions now, right?  Not just winning or losing in your region?

I would project Carthage to finish with 5-6 vs. RRO, but only .64 WP (before the conference tourney) - the RRO is very impressive, but I don't think the overall resume quite does it.

Even if they pull off a win in Bloomington (and otherwise run the schedule), I'd call them on the lower side of the bubble - I think they will have to win the tourney to continue.  Losing to Augie may have been the death knell.

I don't disagree.  The order of the CCIW teams in the regional rankings will matter greatly and if Carthage is behind Augie, they are in trouble.  Right now, that would (and should) happen.  A win at IWU would make it interesting if all else happens as expected, but when does that ever happen in the CCIW?

[Titan Q]

I don't disagree.  The order of the CCIW teams in the regional rankings will matter greatly and if Carthage is behind Augie, they are in trouble.  Right now, that would (and should) happen.  A win at IWU would make it interesting if all else happens as expected, but when does that ever happen in the CCIW?

Augie is 2-0 vs Carthage.  It is usually extremely difficult to trump that.  It's pretty safe to say Carthage is behind Augie in the regional ranking pecking order.

[bopol]

I don't disagree.  The order of the CCIW teams in the regional rankings will matter greatly and if Carthage is behind Augie, they are in trouble.  Right now, that would (and should) happen.  A win at IWU would make it interesting if all else happens as expected, but when does that ever happen in the CCIW?

Augie is 2-0 vs Carthage.  It is usually extremely difficult to trump that.  It's pretty safe to say Carthage is behind Augie in the regional ranking pecking order.

Well, yeah, unless Carthage beats IWU , where they'd move ahead of IWU and then we'd have an inversion and the universe would collapse.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

And Calvin.  And Eastern Connecticut.  So 5-5 vs RRO, in all likelihood.  RRO counts for all regions now, right?  Not just winning or losing in your region?

Remember, there is no "results vs regionally ranked" in the first ranking - that starts with ranking #2. 

In this first ranking, I don't see Carthage getting ranked in the Midwest just on their winning %, SOS, and results vs common opponents alone.

Actually... there will be vRRO this week, but the regional committees won't be able to have the data in front of them to use that as a criteria. Once the rankings are set from each region, the national committee will use vRRO to make any adjustments they deem necessary (according to what the committee chair has told me).

And Calvin.  And Eastern Connecticut.  So 5-5 vs RRO, in all likelihood.  RRO counts for all regions now, right?  Not just winning or losing in your region?

And vRRO has counted in all regions for several years. If you beat a team that was regionally ranked in a different region, you always got credit for that.

[Titan Q]

And vRRO has counted in all regions for several years. If you beat a team that was regionally ranked in a different region, you always got credit for that.

Actually, this is wrong, Dave.  In the past, the criteria was "in-region results vs regionally ranked teams."  Here is the 2013 manual (page 18) - http://static.psbin.com/w/6/qxppu7z1rkr1ta/2013_Pre_Championship_DIII_Men-s_Basketball.pdf.

The only RRO that counted as primary criteria were those from a team's region.  So for IWU, for example, wins vs teams ranked in the Midwest -- but not a win vs, say, Hope (that would only count in secondary criteria).  A real life example is 2011-12, when IWU had out-of-region wins over Staten Island and Bethany.  Both teams ended up regionally ranked in their respective regions, but those games did not count as RRO for IWU...but they were probably a factor in IWU getting a Pool C when evaluated as secondary criteria.

I haven't seen the 2014 handbook, but I assume this has changed as bopol is suggesting? It would seem to me it would have to change if we're no longer just counting "in-region" games.  Does IWU's win over Hope this year count as a RRO (assuming Hope is ranked in the Great Lakes)?  This would be a big change.