MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

Pat Coleman provided updated QOWI figures through Sunday on the Pool C board and Hoops Fan broke down the current Pool A leaders and the top 18 Pool C candidates (strictly by QOWI, but in-region record is included)...

1-10
Amherst     11.826     22-1
Lawrence    11.550    20-0
York (Pa.)    11.043    21-2
Worcester Polytech    11.000    19-3
Mississippi College    10.913    22-1
Trinity (Texas)    10.833    16-2
Tufts    10.826    19-4
Lincoln    10.813    12-4
St. John Fisher    10.810    20-1
Augustana    10.773    19-3
               

11-20
Cortland State    10.609    21-2
Virginia Wesleyan    10.538    23-3 (secured the first Pool A tonight)
Gordon    10.522    21-2
William Paterson    10.435    17-6
Carnegie Mellon    10.389    14-4
Wittenberg    10.350    17-3
Wooster    10.333    19-2
Lakeland    10.200    17-3
Widener    10.174    19-4
Transylvania    10.167    20-4
               
21-30
Calvin    10.167    11-1
Keene State    10.136    16-6
Randolph-Macon    10.125    19-5 (officially now a C candidate)
Washington U.    10.111    13-5
Carroll    10.095    18-3
Occidental    10.071    11-3[/i]
Illinois Wesleyan    10.053    14-5
Bates    10.048    16-5[/i]
Baruch    10.045    20-2
Alvernia    10.045    19-3
               
31-40
UW-Stout    10.000    16-4
Baldwin-Wallace    10.000    19-4
Trinity (Conn.)    10.000    15-4
Carleton    9.952    17-4
UW-Whitewater    9.950    15-5
New Jersey    9.905    14-7
North Central    9.895    14-5
Hope    9.875    14-2
UW-La Crosse    9.870    17-6
Ursinus    9.826    18-5
               

   
41-50
St. Thomas    9.783    18-5
Richard Stockton    9.783    15-8
Fisk    9.769    9-4
New Jersey City    9.739    16-7
Nebraska Wesleyan    9.714    6-1
Puget Sound    9.706    15-2
New York University    9.696    17-6

(Tonight's Va Wesleyan win over Randolph-Macon not factored into above QOWI/in-region record.)

[Titan Q]

According to the above, there is a pretty good chance that if there was not a conference tournament, the CCIW would have 3 teams in -- Augustana (Pool A), Illinois Wesleyan (Pool C), and North Central (Pool C).  I think it is safe to say that IWU would definitely be in as a C.  As it stands, there is a chance the inaugural CCIW tourney will knock out one and maybe two of the CCIW's Pool C hopefuls.  Remember, the schools that pushed the conference tourney sold it as a way for the league to get more teams into the NCAA tournament.  The simple possibility that I present above is enough to demonstrate how flawed that thinking is.

FYI, IWU's new QOWI with a loss Friday night to Augustana would be 9.900...new in-region record would be 14-6 (.700).  North Central's, with a loss to Elmhurst, would be 9.75 with an in-region record of 14-6 (.700).

The closer you get to the bottom of that list of 18, the more vulnerable you are to conference tournament upsets (teams crossed out above all the sudden becoming Pool C candidates).

[Titan Q]

Here are the in-region games played by leading Pool C candidate Tufts, of the NESCAC...


Nov 22, 2005  at Springfield +   W 72-71 
Nov 29, 2005  Western New England +   W 91-81 
Dec 1, 2005  Mass-Dartmouth +   W 91-74 
Dec 3, 2005  Brandeis +   W 86-72 1OT 
Dec 6, 2005  at Plymouth State +   L 103-77 
Dec 8, 2005  at Keene State +   W 100-97 
Dec 10, 2005  Clark +   W 99-76 
Jan 3, 2006  MIT +   W 66-61 
Jan 7, 2006  Babson +   W 77-51 
Jan 13, 2006  at Colby * +   W 78-57 
Jan 14, 2006  at Bowdoin * +   L 84-70 
Jan 17, 2006  at Wheaton (Mass.) +   W 88-70 
Jan 20, 2006  Williams * +   L 82-80 
Jan 21, 2006  Middlebury * +   W 80-63 
Jan 27, 2006  Wesleyan * +   W 95-70 
Jan 28, 2006  Connecticut College * +   W 74-65 
Jan 31, 2006  at Western Connecticut +   W 95-80 
Feb 2, 2006  at Mass-Boston +   W 90-81 
Feb 4, 2006  Bates * +   W 91-76 
Feb 7, 2006  at Newbury +   W 72-58 
Feb 10, 2006  at Trinity (Conn.) * +   W 84-80 1OT 
Feb 11, 2006  at Amherst * +   L 99-70 
Feb 18, 2006  Williams @ +   W 101-89 

Here are the in-region games played by not-a-prayer-at-a-Pool C-bid Elmhurst of the CCIW...


Nov 19, 2005  at Hope +   L 70-53 
Nov 22, 2005  St. Norbert +   W 87-56 
Nov 30, 2005  at UW-Platteville +   L 67-66 
Dec 3, 2005  Hanover +   W 67-56 
Dec 7, 2005  at Kalamazoo +   W 88-78 2OT 
Dec 10, 2005  Rockford +   W 97-68 
Dec 16, 2005  Marian +   W 77-60 
Jan 4, 2006  Millikin * +   L 82-75 
Jan 7, 2006  at Augustana * +   L 60-57 
Jan 11, 2006  Carthage * +   W 78-73 
Jan 14, 2006  Illinois Wesleyan * +   W 72-64 
Jan 18, 2006  at North Park * +   W 64-53 
Jan 21, 2006  Wheaton (Ill.) * +   W 87-61 
Jan 25, 2006  at North Central * +   W 94-91 1OT 
Jan 29, 2006  Augustana * +   L 63-60 
Feb 1, 2006  at Millikin * +   W 76-71 
Feb 4, 2006  at Illinois Wesleyan * +   L 88-87 1OT 
Feb 8, 2006  at Carthage * +   W 79-58 
Feb 11, 2006  North Park * +   W 87-63 
Feb 15, 2006  North Central * +   L 62-59 
Feb 18, 2006  at Wheaton (Ill.) * +   W 89-65 


In-region games vs teams in D3hoops.com Top 25:

Tufts: 1
Elmhurst: 7

[sac]

You make good points about the   Pool C issue and your conference.

Most of the teams on that list are going to have their QOWI index drop some, esp if they get upset.  Only a couple dozen of those schools will finish this week with a win.

The key is to lose to someone good and lose on Saturday.

[Titan Q]

Penn Atlantic will provide live video streaming of the 3 CCIW tournament games...

http://www.cciw.org/winter_bball_m/Penn_Atlantic_2.php

I will do play-by-play for the Elmhurst/North Central contest.  Wanted -- a color commentator.  The gig pays $50.  If interested, please e-mail me ASAP at bobquill@aol.com.

For the IWU/Augustana game, they will take the WJBC audio with Jim Williams on play-by-play and me on color.  If IWU is in the title game we will have the same crew.  If not, I will do the play-by-play Saturday night and need a color analyst...again, please e-mail if interested. 

Thanks.

Do you provide transportation?

Well, yes, if you can get to Rock Island, IL for $50!

[Johnny Augie]

I'm glad that the Tourney will be streaming.  I for sure can't make it out there on Friday, but now I won't be missing anything.  Should be two days of great basketball.

[Dennis_Prikkel]

a good time was had by all - no one punched me out - several people even recognized me - dennie bridges has more hair than bosko - myles brand was very articulate - and provided an interesting comment to the evening when he mentioned that in order to limit the growth of division three such factors as an enrollment cap and number of sports sponsored should probably be considered.

there were a number of current sport stars there (including Chris Martin of Elmhurst), and several stars of yesteryear, including Chuck Schoenherr of Wheaton who led the conference in rushing and scoring in 1947 and the Gobo himself of Millikin fame.  Bryan Crabtree of IWU's 1997 champions and Modzel 'Bud' Greer of North Park's 3-time champions, 1978-79-80.

They had team photographs of all 31 NCAA D3 CCIW championship teams and in the program recognized the 3 D3 women's championship won before the league had women's sports in 1986, Wheaton's college-division basketball championship and North Central's four NAIA swimming championships.

A very nice evening - good crowd.

Thanks to the 'Admiral' NPU VP Dan Tepke for inviting me.

MW

[devildog29]

Q, I know it would never happen, but I think the most interesting and, without a doubt, the most insightful color man for you would be Dennie Bridges.  I'm sure he'll be at the game anyways and probably wouldn't even need the 50 bucks.

[cardinal20]

I would love to do it however, I'm covering the game for WONC. The game will be online at www.wonc.org. Pre-game show begins at 5:40.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Q, I know it would never happen, but I think the most interesting and, without a doubt, the most insightful color man for you would be Dennie Bridges.  I'm sure he'll be at the game anyways and probably wouldn't even need the 50 bucks.

Q,

Devildog is, alas, probably right that it would never happen, but HAVE you checked with Coach Bridges?  That would be SO cool!

[Gregory Sager]

According to the above, there is a pretty good chance that if there was not a conference tournament, the CCIW would have 3 teams in -- Augustana (Pool A), Illinois Wesleyan (Pool C), and North Central (Pool C).  I think it is safe to say that IWU would definitely be in as a C.  As it stands, there is a chance the inaugural CCIW tourney will knock out one and maybe two of the CCIW's Pool C hopefuls.  Remember, the schools that pushed the conference tourney sold it as a way for the league to get more teams into the NCAA tournament.  The simple possibility that I present above is enough to demonstrate how flawed that thinking is.

I've said all along that there would be years in which a conference tourney would help get an extra CCIW team or two into the dance, and there would be years in which it would be a hindrance in that regard. This is definitely a hindrance year, because as Bob points out there are two CCIW teams that ended the 25-game slate with respectable Pool C resumes who will nevertheless get pushed onto the bubble by the conference tourney with a loss. But there have been plenty of years in the past when a conference tourney could've helped the CCIW in this regard. The 2002 season was a classic example: Carthage ran away with the league crown and would've been invulnerable to losing an NCAA bid even if the conference had held a postseason tourney and Wiertel, Garnes, McDaniel & Co. had lost it. The runners-up that season -- Elmhurst and Wheaton -- weren't anywhere close to being viable Pool C contenders. Give either one a chance to spring an upset on Carthage in a conference tourney setting, though, and the league might've had one of them in as a Pool A team and Carthage in as a Pool C team. And who knows what might've happened the following year, in which only one of the CCIW's tri-champions got a ticket punched for the dance?

FYI, IWU's new QOWI with a loss Friday night to Augustana would be 9.900...new in-region record would be 14-6 (.700).  North Central's, with a loss to Elmhurst, would be 9.75 with an in-region record of 14-6 (.700).

The closer you get to the bottom of that list of 18, the more vulnerable you are to conference tournament upsets (teams crossed out above all the sudden becoming Pool C candidates).

I read somewhere on this site that last year 12 of the regular-season champions of the 37 automatic-qualifier conferences lost their conference postseason tourneys. That 1/3rd-of-the-champs-lose mark sounds pretty typical to me. Thing is, if it happens in a league whose regular-season champ isn't set up well for a possible Pool C bid (e.g., Scranton in the MAC Freedom, Lake Erie in the AMCC, or Westfield State in the MASCAC), that fallen champion won't necessarily snatch a Pool C bid away from somebody else. So let's say that only eight of the twelve fallen champions gets a Pool C bid as a consolation prize. That still leaves only ten of the 18 spots currently available. The leeway among the teams in bold italics on the list Hoops Fan posted on the Pool C board and that Bob then posted here gets much, much narrower.

Either Illinois Wesleyan or North Central, or even both, might have cause to regret not scheduling more in-region games this season. This could be a year in which a CCIW Pool C candidate might get stricken with "Hope Syndrome", i.e., a lack of a robust regional W-L percentage due to an insufficient number of regional games played.

[dansand]

During the pre-season and early in the season Augie was criticized for their not-so-rigorous schedule this year. I think in retrospect, their schedule was very advantageous for them. They played almost exclusively in-region D3 opponents.

In 2002-03 when they tied IWU and Carthage for the CCIW championship and failed to make the national tournament, they played four NAIA schools and three Iowa Conference schools (going 7-1 in those games) and only 18 in-region games (14-4). By contrast, this year they'll have either 23 or 24 in-region games going into selection Sunday (or whatever day they select in D3).

I'd like to see teams rewarded more for playing top teams, even if they're out of region games, but under the current system, Augie's schedule this year helped them a lot.

[Gregory Sager]

I'd like to see teams rewarded more for playing top teams, even if they're out of region games, but under the current system, Augie's schedule this year helped them a lot.

Exactly. It all comes down to tailoring your schedule to the dictates of D3's regionally-based system. In retrospect, Augie's doing just that has worked to the benefit of the Doggies, because now they'll have a gaudy regional record to show for themselves if they lose in the CCIW tourney and need to display their credentials to the guy at the door handing out the Pool C ducats next Monday. The fact that their non-con schedule didn't seem to have the heft of Carthage's, Elmhurst's, and Illinois Wesleyan's doesn't seem to have hurt them in the slightest once CCIW play began. Of course, it helped that Giovanine scheduled their toughest non-con game (@ Wisconsin-Stout in the championship game of the Blue Devils' holiday tourney) for last. That undoubtedly made a nice warmup to the rigors of CCIW play.

Illinois Wesleyan supporters can at least make the argument that playing the likes of the U of I and all of those NAIA-1 teams promised to whet the collective game of the Titans as a precursor to CCIW play, even though the gamble didn't really pay off for them this year. North Central can't make that claim, though; what was Todd Raridon thinking, scheduling RMC-Springfield twice? I hope for his sake that he was just scheduling the Eagles to fill out cancellations in the Redbirds' dance card. And why were the likes of NAIA nonentities Illinois Tech and Judson on the North Central sked? OK, so Judson managed to recover from the 107-46 pounding the Cardinals dealt them to finish the regular season at 19-10 (including a surprising win over Aurora). But nobody is going to mistake Judson for Olivet Nazarene or St. Xavier. And IIT (3-24), which actually beat Judson for one of their three wins, is beyond pathetic.

The Cardinals certainly can't make Wesleyan's argument in defense of their low-regional-content non-con schedule, which is that it was supposed to toughen up the team for CCIW play. Several of North Central's November and December games can't be described as anything other than wasted opportunities for a program that should've been thinking about tournament possibilities when the schedule was put together.

[Titan Q]

Either Illinois Wesleyan or North Central, or even both, might have cause to regret not scheduling more in-region games this season. This could be a year in which a CCIW Pool C candidate might get stricken with "Hope Syndrome", i.e., a lack of a robust regional W-L percentage due to an insufficient number of regional games played.

I can't speak for North Central's situation, but I'm close enough to IWU to know that Scott Trost couldn't find a single additional in-region non-conference game.  In the off-season, Benedictine and Beloit both backed out of commitments to play IWU in 2005-06, which left Trost scrambling.  When he couldn't find two regional games, he ended up pursuing a D1 exhibition and the St. Xavier game.  I've also heard from reliable sources that Augustana had a heck of a time finding games this year.

We talk a lot on these boards about scheduling, especially in terms of the current regional focus in Division III.  Don't forget that schools have to find teams to play, and that all of the teams in the region are playing under the same system.  A loss to Illinois Wesleyan hurts Beloit's in-region winning % and QOWI (6/7 points depending on home/away)...a win over Marian is worth 10/11 points. 

For the schools that want to "play the game" (and who blames them), why play a contender from your region's top conference? And if Illinois Wesleyan doesn't make the tournament because Benedictine and Beloit chose not to play them and no one else would, what is the solution to that problem?

[Gregory Sager]

I know exactly how the NCAA poobahs would respond to that, Bob. They'd say, "There are 44 other schools in the Midwest Region besides the eight CCIW members, plus three other non-MWR schools that are within 200 miles of Bloomington, IL. Are you telling us that Scott Trost called all 47 of those schools and couldn't get any bites for a scheduling contract apart from the five that he actually got?"