MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Mr. Ypsi]

While I will (of course) be pulling for IWU to win the conference tournament, there is an alternative scenario that I believe would guarantee the CCIW 3 bids.

IWU over Augie - Augie is an absolute lock for a pool C even with a first round loss.  Either Elmhurst or NCC over IWU in the final - one of them is the AQ and (while I HOPE IWU would be a very strong C candidate even with a first round loss) the Titan's 15-point win over Augie would make them an absolute lock for a C.

I THINK NCC will make it with a first-round win and a title loss, but I sure wouldn't bet much on it.

[Brick]

The Titan's don't have a 15 point win over Augie unless that is a prediction....or it is refering to the dog crap display Augie put on Saturday night...

[Mr. Ypsi]

The Titan's don't have a 15 point win over Augie unless that is a prediction....or it is refering to the dog crap display Augie put on Saturday night...

That was the hypothetical scenario to guarantee 3 CCIW teams - IWU winning Friday would be 15 if it happens.  (Why would I talk about a past game as making IWU newly a lock?)

[Gregory Sager]

Greg, I've re-read this post 5 times and I'm still not CERTAIN what point you were making concerning whether-or-not you believe Trost simply could not schedule more in-region games.  The obvious difference between Scott's situation and Grey's is that Augie was NOT the lead-pipe cinch pre-season #1 in the d3 universe!  Prior to the conference season, I was far from the only one who thought that, while not literally unbeatable, the Titans were still a country mile over #2 (NATION, not just conference - they WERE unanimously #1 for several weeks in the poll).

What I believe in this instance is immaterial, Chuck. I didn't have a bug planted in the phone in Trost's office. As I said, it comes down to whether or not Trost did everything within his power to schedule more in-region games, and only Trost himself knows that for sure. I'm certainly willing to take it on faith that his hands were tied if that's what the Wesleyan people are claiming.

I mentioned Augie only because Q brought up that he'd heard Giovanine had had the same problem as Trost with finding in-region non-con games. Augie's schedule seems to indicate otherwise.

IWU over Augie - Augie is an absolute lock for a pool C even with a first round loss.  Either Elmhurst or NCC over IWU in the final - one of them is the AQ and (while I HOPE IWU would be a very strong C candidate even with a first round loss) the Titan's 15-point win over Augie would make them an absolute lock for a C.

I don't think that they'd be an "absolute lock", Chuck, inasmuch as a 15-6 (.714) in-region W-L percentage and a possible losing record against regionally-ranked teams (depending upon whether or not Wash U is ranked in the secret regional ranking on Selection Monday) would not be working in Wesleyan's favor. And, remember, Augie's being thrown into the Pool C hopper means that there would be one more team standing in line ahead of the Titans. Finally, everyone who is looking for a Pool C bid will have to wait and see how many of those bids will still be available once the smoke clears from all of the conference tournaments. The more upsets, the dicier the situation gets for Pool C aspirants.

Would Wesleyan get a Pool C bid with a win over Augie and a loss to either North Central or Elmhurst? Probably. Would they be an "absolute lock"? No.

[Gregory Sager]

Greg, wouldn't you think 19 in region games would be enough for a 25 game schedule?  Afterall, a lot of programs would like to take one nice trip a year for their kids.   I know NCC took a trip to Hawaii where usually an in region game is not likely.  However, NCC did play Ripon in Hawaii, but they were down this year and they're usually pretty good.  Plus, Raridon probably was used to playing a ton of NAIA schools being at Nebraska Wesleyan and the thought of scheduling more in region games probably never entered his mind because 19 was definitely more than he ever played at Wesleyan.  I just hope the scheduling doesn't come back to haunt NCC in the eyes of the selection committee.

The more regional games, the better, CP. Nineteen games means less cushioning for your QOWI if you lose a game, and it makes it harder to accumulate enough wins to compete with the teams that'll go 18-5 or 19-6 in weaker regions [*cough* East and Northeast *cough*]  .

The Hawaii trip wasn't the problem, since, as you pointed out, North Central did play a regional opponent there. Even though the game was played 4,500 miles away from the Midwest Region, it still counts as a regional game.

I suspect that Raridon knows the rules as well as any other coach in the league. His former position at a school that's in a vastly different situation within D3 isn't an excuse. If he doesn't know the ins and outs of D3's regionally-based criteria as they pertain to North Central, he's not doing his job. If he has a justification for scheduling RMC-Springfield twice (they're not even an NAIA team) or IIT or Judson, let's hear it. Perhaps the Cards were victims of a rash of cancellations similar to Wesleyan's. Or maybe there's some other mitigating circumstance. He deserves the benefit of the doubt just as much as does Trost. But we can't give it to him unless we find out what those mitigating circumstances were, if indeed there were any. All I can do for the moment is comment upon how the schedule actually turned out, and it didn't turn out to be one well-constructed for North Central with respect to Pool C.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Greg,

Despite a 15-6 in region record if my scenario held true (which is a TAD worrisome), the Titan QOWI would rise to a little over 10.14, probably (barring a HUGE number of putative AQs going down) putting them in the top 5-6 among C candidates.

My reading of past selections is that, while QOWI is supposedly only one of the primary criteria, it seems to be 'first-among-equals' in actual practice (unless the name-change from SOSI infers a change in policy ).  I may live to regret this prediction, but in my mind if IWU wins Friday, they are a lock.  (I THINK they are fairly safe even if they lose on Friday, but I would be considerably more nervous.)

Having said that, I am of course hoping they will win Friday AND Saturday - get that momentum going in the quest for the walnut and bronze!   In my mind, at least, they STILL have the most player-for-player talent in the country - five losses is simply inexplicable to me.

[augie_superfan]

One thing to keep in mind about the CCIW tourney is that Augie finishes up their 2nd trimester with finals ending this Thursday.  Therefore, in the past, few students have stayed if there was a final CCIW home game.  Not sure what the students will be like this year but there probably will not be many students....although I really hope they stick around.  So hopefully the local Augie crowd comes out and tried to give Augie some homecourt advantage.

[Gregory Sager]

Sorry, Chuck, but I think that you're overstating Wesleyan's case. Where is the evidence that the committee is putting QOWI above the other four criteria? Where is the evidence that they will downgrade regional W-L percentage this season? If anything, regional W-L percentage has appeared to me to be the "first-among-equals" in past tournament field selections with regard to the five primary criteria. And the possibility that Wesleyan will do poorly in another criterion (the record vs. regionally-ranked teams criterion) does not bode well for them if they find themselves in the Pool C mix.

I think you're also slighting the possibility that a lot of regular-season champs who are well set up for Pool C will be standing in that same line next Monday. And, again, Augie would be in front of Wesleyan in that line.

As I said, I think that Illinois Wesleyan has a pretty good chance of making the tournament this season. I just don't see why you're throwing the loaded and uncompromising term "absolute lock" into the discussion. I gotta tell you, it smacks of your earlier declarations about Wesleyan's chances of going undefeated. Just how edgy are you trying to make your fellow Titans fans, anyway?  

[Titan Q]

I find it hard to believe that Augie had similar problems, though. Giovanine ended up with eight regional games on his non-con schedule. The only other CCIW school that ended up playing that many was NPU. Plus, the fact that five of those opponents -- Beloit, Simpson, Coe, Rockford, and Clarke -- have appeared on the Augie sked at least four of the past five years tells me that they have ongoing scheduling contracts with Augie, or at least some sort of spoken understanding in that regard.

I said that I heard, "...Augustana had a heck of a time finding games this year." I meant that in terms of finding some strong non-conference opponents.  Yes, Augie found numbers, but the person I talked to said they really didn't intend to play such a weak non-conference schedule.  They just couldn't find the Wash U/Hanover/Lawrence type of game out there.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Greg, obviously I have no evidence on what the selection committee will do this year (does anyone?  including them?)  My strong impression from past years is that QOWI has outweighed regional W-L, but, no, I haven't done a direct analysis of it.  I'll withdraw the term 'absolute lock', but I would feel VERY comfortble if the Titans prevail on Friday.  If they finish with a 10.14 QOWI I estimate there will only be 2-3 EXPECTED Cs above them; unless a boatload of expected AQs fall (some of whom would fall below 10.14), I think top 5-6 is a pretty safe guess.

As to the 'declarations of Wesleyan's chances of going undefeated' crack, I'm uncertain how to take that - you have a  after the NEXT sentence, but you don't strike me as a 'yanking your chain' sort of guy, so....  One more time for the record, the highest my odds for an undefeated season EVER got was 30%, which means I still felt it was MORE than 2 to 1 AGAINST the Titans going undefeated.  (If that was unnecessary, I apologize.)

Even with emoticons, the risk of being taken wrongly on a chat-board is distressingly high - I've experienced both ends!

[David Collinge]

It seems to me that some in here are suggesting that it's tough for a team with strong pre-season bona fides to find good in-region teams to play.  I wonder how true that is.  For example, it seems like IWU plays Hanover and Wash U. pretty much every year.  These are good in-region opponents for a team like IWU that usually looks pretty good on November-dated stationery (and vice versa.)

Wooster is the winningest team in D3 in this decade, and is the only team to have received votes in every D3hoops.com poll ever taken.  If there ever was a program that teams would schedule away from, this would be it.  And yet Wooster has managed to attract the following regional powers to one of the other of its early-season tournaments:
2005-06: Baldwin-Wallace (as well as UW-Stout and St. Thomas, quality out of region opponents)
2004-05: Ohio Northern (and Transylvania)
2003-04: Otterbein, Baldwin-Wallace (and Hanover, Brockport St., and St. Thomas)
2002-03: (nobody of consequence)
2001-02: Ohio Northern (and St. Thomas and Randolph-Macon)
2000-01: Calvin (and Chicago, Aurora, and SCAD)

In the fall of 2006, Calvin is coming to Wooster to participate in the Mose Hole Classic.

It's not impossible to schedule top-grade in-region out-of-conference games, no matter how good you are.

[Mr. Ypsi]

David,

But most of those teams you listed strike me as teams who genuinely thought they could win.  IWU also regularly schedules teams with the same mind-set.  (And why wouldn't Hanover or WashU [or Chicago] feel that way - they've DONE it way to often!)  The problem here was filling in for teams that (by all indications) 'chickened out'.  And how many new teams are going to want to tackle the consensus #1 in the country (especially if they will still have the rep next year, but have graduated most of the team)? 

I have no insider knowlege (obviously!) but I don't doubt for a minute that Trost was regularly turned down for games.  If you were the coach, would you want to risk a 50-point beat-down?!

The Woo and IWU situations are simply not comparable.  IWU was trying to fill in last minute gaps, with teams they had no relationship with.  And NO ONE has received the pre-season hype that IWU had since, well, um, UWSP last year!!

[Titan Q]

It seems to me that some in here are suggesting that it's tough for a team with strong pre-season bona fides to find good in-region teams to play.  I wonder how true that is.  For example, it seems like IWU plays Hanover and Wash U. pretty much every year.  These are good in-region opponents for a team like IWU that usually looks pretty good on November-dated stationery (and vice versa.)

Wooster is the winningest team in D3 in this decade, and is the only team to have received votes in every D3hoops.com poll ever taken.  If there ever was a program that teams would schedule away from, this would be it.  And yet Wooster has managed to attract the following regional powers to one of the other of its early-season tournaments:
2005-06: Baldwin-Wallace (as well as UW-Stout and St. Thomas, quality out of region opponents)
2004-05: Ohio Northern (and Transylvania)
2003-04: Otterbein, Baldwin-Wallace (and Hanover, Brockport St., and St. Thomas)
2002-03: (nobody of consequence)
2001-02: Ohio Northern (and St. Thomas and Randolph-Macon)
2000-01: Calvin (and Chicago, Aurora, and SCAD)

In the fall of 2006, Calvin is coming to Wooster to participate in the Mose Hole Classic.

It's not impossible to schedule top-grade in-region out-of-conference games, no matter how good you are.

Absolutely, David.  IWU, for example, regularly plays one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country.  This year the Titans faced Hanover, Wash U, Chicago, and Wabash in-region.  Those are pretty solid programs.

This discussion started over the suggestion that IWU should have played a couple more in-region games.  I simply pointed out the reality of the situation -- that two Midwest teams backed out of commitments to play IWU this year and that IWU coach Scott Trost couldn't find a single in-region game to add, let alone two.  The St. Xavier game was added very late when it was clear there weren't any in-region games to play, and the Illinois exhibition was made possible because of that remaining hole in the IWU's schedule.

Based on the current in-region selection system, teams from leagues like the CCIW and WIAC (where good teams will lose 4-6 games in league play) need to rack up as many in-region wins as possible during the non-conference.  I think we all realize that.  But that requires being able to find the appropriate number of in-region games and that just isn't easy.  Again, the other teams in the regions that are playing the "in-region game" might not want to play a top team.  I'll bet if you ask Coach Moore at Wooster, he will tell you that there are a whole bunch of Great Lakes teams that want no part of the Scots. 

Finding good D3 teams to play out of region in the non-conference is pretty easy....those games don't count anymore.  UW-Stout can play Wooster and Augustana as nice WIAC tune-up type games, but a loss doesn't hurt at all.  Puget Sound coach Bridgeland spoke on this topic when we interviewed him in Santa Barbara.  He said that Puget Sound's decision to play in the Tom Byron Classic was specifically because IWU was there (and they made their attendance contingent on facing IWU in round 1) and it was a great chance to test his squad against a top D3 team without worrying about an in-region loss.

Finally, as I understand it, scheduling is very tricky.  Even if you identify 4-5 really solid in-region teams you want to play, a) they've gotta be willing to play you, b) there has to be a date that works for both, c) the teams have to agree on the location, and d) both parties have to agree on what happens the following year (is it a home & home or just a one year deal?).  When I say that I heard Augustana looked for some tough teams to play and couldn't find them, it doesn't mean anyone dodged the Vikings...just that for whatever reason, it didn't work out.

[Gregory Sager]

I said that I heard, "...Augustana had a heck of a time finding games this year." I meant that in terms of finding some strong non-conference opponents.  Yes, Augie found numbers, but the person I talked to said they really didn't intend to play such a weak non-conference schedule.  They just couldn't find the Wash U/Hanover/Lawrence type of game out there.

OK, that makes a bit more sense -- especially in light of the fact that Augie seems to have some long-term scheduling relationships with teams like Coe, Simpson, Beloit, etc.

I actually heard from someone affiliated with a local D3 program that Augustana declined to continue playing Ripon every season, rather than the other way around. But since that person isn't affiliated with either Augie or Ripon, it's hearsay.

Greg, obviously I have no evidence on what the selection committee will do this year (does anyone? including them?) My strong impression from past years is that QOWI has outweighed regional W-L, but, no, I haven't done a direct analysis of it. I'll withdraw the term 'absolute lock', but I would feel VERY comfortble if the Titans prevail on Friday. If they finish with a 10.14 QOWI I estimate there will only be 2-3 EXPECTED Cs above them; unless a boatload of expected AQs fall (some of whom would fall below 10.14), I think top 5-6 is a pretty safe guess.

I think I can get on board with "very comfortable" replacing "absolute lock". I'm not going to follow suit in terms of agreeing with your estimates -- I'm never really quite sure where you dig up the numbers for your estimates -- but, like I said, I think that Wesleyan will most likely be in pretty good shape if they win Friday and lose Saturday, barring a landslide of conference tourney upsets.

As to the 'declarations of Wesleyan's chances of going undefeated' crack, I'm uncertain how to take that - you have a after the NEXT sentence, but you don't strike me as a 'yanking your chain' sort of guy, so.... One more time for the record, the highest my odds for an undefeated season EVER got was 30%, which means I still felt it was MORE than 2 to 1 AGAINST the Titans going undefeated. (If that was unnecessary, I apologize.)

Even with emoticons, the risk of being taken wrongly on a chat-board is distressingly high - I've experienced both ends!

I wasn't really yanking your chain as much as alerting you to the fact that you seem to make some of your fellow Titans fans nervous with this kind of talk -- as I said, "absolute lock" is a loaded and uncompromising term, and it's an open invitation to ridicule if it doesn't come to pass. My general impression of Titans fans is that they're very much aware of just how hard it is to win in this league, or to get into the tourney as a Pool C (especially in the wake of all of the heartbreaks suffered in that regard in recent years by Wheaton and other CCIW teams) and that anything that can be construed as premature braggadocio -- even though I'm pretty sure that that wasn't your intended purpose -- can boomerang back on them in an unpleasant way. Nobody wants to see his team take the fall for a fellow fan's intemperate predictions.

I realize that you've developed a little bit of a persecution complex regarding your "undefeated odds" saga, and given the amount of razzing you've taken for it I can understand why. I don't know what motivated you to formulate those odds of Wesleyan going undefeated, or upon what statistical basis you constructed them. That's your business (I'd guess that there's some sort of stats-instructor arcanery in there, but I really don't want to know!). I'm just saying that it has struck some people, including your fellow Titans fans, as reckless overconfidence. But that's a matter for you and them to sort out. It really doesn't matter to me. I was just pointing it out.

[John Gleich]

I don't know how many times it has happened in prior years - but this year's CCIW tourney provides a "Third Time is a Charm"

Ya know, the old adage is "it's hard to beat a team 3 times."  I'm not sure if that's true... or, in fact, any more true than it is to beat a team once...  Two years ago, #7 Superior made the long trip down South to Quandt gym... where 3 days earlier, they had completed a two game sweep of the host Pointers, on their home floor, denying them a 5th straight conference title.  Point got the job done, en route to their first National Championship.  Ironically, that same year, Point defeated Oshkosh in the very next game, beating the Titans for the FOURTH time that year... Point swept the home and away, and defeated UWO in the Las Vegas Christmas tournament.

Interestingly, UWSP beat Platteville tonight after the Pioneers had beaten the Pointers on two previous occasions this year.  On Thursday, the Pointer's travel to Menominee to play the Stout Bluedevils... and Point won both match-ups.  If they win the third, then they travel to Whitewater (the Warhawks swept the series this year) or host La Crosse (Point won both match-ups).  Oh, by the way, Whitewater swept La Crosse this season as well.  And to make this even MORE confusing, Stout swept Whitewater... so there will be quite a bit of data to possibly show trends of how season sweeps have a bearing on 3rd-game results.

One point I do want to add to the discussion...  There may be a reason why Team A has seemed to have Team B's number.  Perhaps the match-ups are simply in their favor.  Perhaps the stars are aligned in just the right way this season.  Perhaps the coaching staff invested in a magical "if you do this you can beat the conference favorite" playbook.

But whatever the reason, in the case of Augie and IWU, Augie has found a way to win.  The question is, will IWU make the necessary changes to overcome the discrepancies that have given AC the victory.