MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

Brayden Teuscher was Brayden Teuscher  with 26 pts as he was aggressive to the basket from the opening tip and got to the foul line early and often going 16/17.

Based upon this and his performance on Wednesday in the crackerbox, looks to me like Teuscher's gonna be our next CCIW POW.

Congratulations to NPU Juwan Henry for 2nd consecutive league POW.  Teuscher was also deserving and for obvious reasons, I was hoping he would get it since he has never been named so.  But tough to argue against Henry's performance in helping to produce consistent wins right now.

Yep, congrats to Juwan Henry on his back-to-back POWs. He's now won it three times this season; Charlie Rosenberg, who has two, is the only other CCIW player who's won it more than once. I'm slightly surprised that Henry won it over Teuscher, but I agree that NPU's winning streak might've played into the decision.

Juwan's entering rarefied territory as far as POWs are concerned. Here's a list of the players who've won three or more POWs in a season over the past decade:

Juwan Henry, NPU	2014-15	?
Tim McCrary, WC	2011-12	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Steve Djurickovic, CC (4X)	2010-11	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Steve Djurickovic, CC (5X)	2009-10	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Tim McCrary, WC	2009-10	All-CCIW 1st team
Kent Raymond, WC (5X)	2008-09	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Brent Ruch, EC	2008-09	All-CCIW 1st team
Steve Djurickovic, CC	2007-08	All-CCIW 1st team
Kent Raymond, WC (4X)	2006-07	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP

(I didn't go back any further than that, because the CCIW braintrust was pretty profligate in handing out POWs in the early and middle seasons of the Oughts, naming two or even three players a week as often as not. I think it lessens some of the impact of the award if it's shared.)

In each of the eight prior instances named above, the player who won three or more POWs was a unanimous All-CCIW first-teamer.

Given the fact that their teams are battling it out for the conference crown, I still think that Dylan Overstreet and Hunter Hill have the inside track on MOP. But Juwan Henry's definitely part of that conversation now as well.

[Gregory Sager]

Massey's corrected the error I noted last week, so these fresh ratings are accurate as far as game results are concerned:

    9. Illinois Wesleyan
  11. Augustana
  17. Elmhurst
  31. North Central
  62. North Park
  83. Wheaton
138. Carthage
190. Millikin

Massey's predictions for Wednesday:

Illinois Wesleyan 75, Augustana 70
North Central 70, Carthage 62
Elmhurst 80, North Park 71
Wheaton 73, Millikin 63

[toooldtohoop]

Brayden Teuscher was Brayden Teuscher  with 26 pts as he was aggressive to the basket from the opening tip and got to the foul line early and often going 16/17.

Based upon this and his performance on Wednesday in the crackerbox, looks to me like Teuscher's gonna be our next CCIW POW.

Congratulations to NPU Juwan Henry for 2nd consecutive league POW.  Teuscher was also deserving and for obvious reasons, I was hoping he would get it since he has never been named so.  But tough to argue against Henry's performance in helping to produce consistent wins right now.

Yep, congrats to Juwan Henry on his back-to-back POWs. He's now won it three times this season; Charlie Rosenberg, who has two, is the only other CCIW player who's won it more than once. I'm slightly surprised that Henry won it over Teuscher, but I agree that NPU's winning streak might've played into the decision.

Juwan's entering rarefied territory as far as POWs are concerned. Here's a list of the players who've won three or more POWs in a season over the past decade:

Juwan Henry, NPU	2014-15	?
Tim McCrary, WC	2011-12	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Steve Djurickovic, CC (4X)	2010-11	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Steve Djurickovic, CC (5X)	2009-10	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Tim McCrary, WC	2009-10	All-CCIW 1st team
Kent Raymond, WC (5X)	2008-09	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP
Brent Ruch, EC	2008-09	All-CCIW 1st team
Steve Djurickovic, CC	2007-08	All-CCIW 1st team
Kent Raymond, WC (4X)	2006-07	All-CCIW 1st team, MOP

(I didn't go back any further than that, because the CCIW braintrust was pretty profligate in handing out POWs in the early and middle seasons of the Oughts, naming two or even three players a week as often as not. I think it lessens some of the impact of the award if it's shared.)

In each of the eight prior instances named above, the player who won three or more POWs was a unanimous All-CCIW first-teamer.

Given the fact that their teams are battling it out for the conference crown, I still think that Dylan Overstreet and Hunter Hill have the inside track on MOP. But Juwan Henry's definitely part of that conversation now as well.

If MOP depends on the player being on a team competing for the crown, then Overstreet at this stage.  If that is not a critical metric, then I think Henry is the winner at this stage.  He has been an integral part of enabling a program to do a 180 in one year.  And he has performed consistently all year long.
Teuscher might be one of the best players in the conference, but Wheaton's record will prevent him being in the conversation.

Might be a year when first team all CCIW has a lot of guards?

[Gregory Sager]

Might be a year when first team all CCIW has a lot of guards?

I think that Rosenberg might make first team, but I agree with you that the All-CCIW team is going to be guard-heavy. The league just doesn't really have a lot of high-quality forwards and centers this season.

[kiko]

A nice look at Pool C using KnightSlappy's computer model...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1653974#msg1653974

Thanks for the link, Q!

Looks like Elmhurst is in trouble.
I'm surprised North Central is that high.
Big game Saturday between the Cardinals & Bluejays in Elmhurst.

This is where using Massey to simulate Regional Rankings misses the human element that will be very much in play.  There is no way the region committee will rank Elmhurst, which sits a game better in the conference and overall, which has beat North Central H2H, and which has lost its four conference games by 2, 2, 4, and 8 points, ahead of the Cardinals...

New Rankings thru Sunday the 8th:

11) Augustana
24) IWU
25) Elmhurst
36th most votes) NCC

Massey's corrected the error I noted last week, so these fresh ratings are accurate as far as game results are concerned:

    9. Illinois Wesleyan
  11. Augustana
  17. Elmhurst
  31. North Central
  62. North Park
  83. Wheaton
138. Carthage
190. Millikin

... and this is where I think Massey has a better perspective than the D3 poll's voters.  I am certainly no Greenie, but the Titans are rated far lower than they should be based on their body of work in recent weeks.   There should be very little separation between the Titans and Augie, and IMO both teams belong in the low/mid teens.  The Wezzies are still paying for their uneven out of conference performance with the D3hoops poll voters, when that clearly is something that is in their rearview mirror at this point.  This will take care of itself if the Titans keep firing on all cylinders, but the voters seem unusually slow to catch up to this.

[GoPerry]

Given the fact that their teams are battling it out for the conference crown, I still think that Dylan Overstreet and Hunter Hill have the inside track on MOP. But Juwan Henry's definitely part of that conversation now as well.

If MOP depends on the player being on a team competing for the crown, then Overstreet at this stage.  If that is not a critical metric, then I think Henry is the winner at this stage.  He has been an integral part of enabling a program to do a 180 in one year.  And he has performed consistently all year long.
Teuscher might be one of the best players in the conference, but Wheaton's record will prevent him being in the conversation.

I am hoping Teuscher gets a 1st team All-Conf nod, but that's no given.  Since that voting is done by the coaches, I am thinking that would favor him.

Let's see how everyone finishes out these last 3.

[iwu70]

Glad to see the TITANS back in the D3hoops top 25.  They are surely a top 25 team at present the way they are playing.  I also agree that the separation between IWU and Augie is not very great.  If the TITANS win on Wednesday, that will sort of settle it as IWU would have two wins H2H over the Doggies.  Good time of year to be playing well, to be peaking.  IWU has turned out to be a better defensive team this season than many of us in the Greenie camp expected.  I'm pulling for EC over NCC in the bidding and also hoping NPU makes the Conference tourney.  Juwan Henry surely deserves the award this week, though my vote would have gone to Teuscher. 

Should be a great final two weeks of the CCIW season.  Fitness and the big MO now playing a part.  It's a long long season and you have to admire how these players hold up, deal with all the demands of being a D3 athlete and student through the winter months, through the travel and the demands of practices and games.

IWU70

[Gregory Sager]

Might be a year when first team all CCIW has a lot of guards?

I think that Rosenberg might make first team, but I agree with you that the All-CCIW team is going to be guard-heavy. The league just doesn't really have a lot of high-quality forwards and centers this season.

Following up on my earlier thought, there's only one player in the league who ranks in the top ten in both points and rebounds in CCIW play, and that's Jordan Robinson of NPU. Call me biased, but it seems to me that he's worthy of All-CCIW consideration, probably at the second- or third-team level.

If you extend it out to the top fifteen in those two categories, forwards and centers that appear on the list along with Robinson are Elmhurst's Erik Crittenden, North Central's Charlie Rosenberg and Jack Burchett, and Augustana's Ben Ryan, along with a pair of guards, Elmhurst's Kyle Wuest and North Park's Juwan Henry.

[sac]

A nice look at Pool C using KnightSlappy's computer model...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1653974#msg1653974

Thanks for the link, Q!

Looks like Elmhurst is in trouble.
I'm surprised North Central is that high.
Big game Saturday between the Cardinals & Bluejays in Elmhurst.

This is where using Massey to simulate Regional Rankings misses the human element that will be very much in play.  There is no way the region committee will rank Elmhurst, which sits a game better in the conference and overall, which has beat North Central H2H, and which has lost its four conference games by 2, 2, 4, and 8 points, ahead of the Cardinals...

I think you meant behind the Cardinals?

The only reason NCC might be ahead of Elmurst is the OWP numbers  NCC .605, Elmhurst .556  .  Its a matter of weighting and KS uses an RPI formula which very much puts emphasis on the win%, OWP and OOWP vs head-to-head aspect.

Just to clarify, I think the 3rd CCIW bid is in doubt only because North Central and Elmhurst have a head-to-head game, plus Elmhurst plays Illinois Wesleyan and both still have games with North Park.  Then each is going to get either a game with Augustana or Illinois Wesleyan in the CCIW Tournament.  The SOS numbers should improve but the win% might take a hit.  The wrong set of results could very much put the 3rd bid out of reach.

Now if Elmhurst, North Central or even North Park wins the CCIW Tournament both Augie and IWU look good to get Pool C's.  So that's three.

[kiko]

A nice look at Pool C using KnightSlappy's computer model...

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1653974#msg1653974

Thanks for the link, Q!

Looks like Elmhurst is in trouble.
I'm surprised North Central is that high.
Big game Saturday between the Cardinals & Bluejays in Elmhurst.

This is where using Massey to simulate Regional Rankings misses the human element that will be very much in play.  There is no way the region committee will rank Elmhurst, which sits a game better in the conference and overall, which has beat North Central H2H, and which has lost its four conference games by 2, 2, 4, and 8 points, ahead of the Cardinals...

I think you meant behind the Cardinals?

The only reason NCC might be ahead of Elmurst is the OWP numbers  NCC .605, Elmhurst .556  .  Its a matter of weighting and KS uses an RPI formula which very much puts emphasis on the win%, OWP and OOWP vs head-to-head aspect.

Just to clarify, I think the 3rd CCIW bid is in doubt only because North Central and Elmhurst have a head-to-head game, plus Elmhurst plays Illinois Wesleyan and both still have games with North Park.  Then each is going to get either a game with Augustana or Illinois Wesleyan in the CCIW Tournament.  The SOS numbers should improve but the win% might take a hit.  The wrong set of results could very much put the 3rd bid out of reach.

Now if Elmhurst, North Central or even North Park wins the CCIW Tournament both Augie and IWU look good to get Pool C's.  So that's three.

Yes - that is exactly what I meant.

From my perspective, barring something that drives their season into the ditch (such as, say, losing by 24 to North Park and then to three against Millikin on their home floor, and, er... moving right along here...), I agree that both Augie and IWU are solid C's if it comes to that for them.

Elmhurst is bubbly if they are in the pack of Pool C aspirants.  And North Central is likely on the outside looking in because I think they will be too far down the Central Region pecking order when all is said and done.  Would love to be surprised and delighted, of course...

[AndOne]

RE CURRENT AUGIE-IWU:

Heaven knows I'm not the world's #1 IWU fan, but right now, especially having played both in the last 2 games, I'd honestly have to say that right now the Green team is playing at a higher level than the western Vikings.

RE ELMHURST-NCC:

While EC has a better overall record by one game, I think more than simply a won-lost record needs to be taken into consideration with regard to rankings. It seems that with teams like Dickinson, Stevens Point, and even Aurora, NCC certainly played a stronger non-conference schedule than did EC. Additionally, NCC matched EC with a win over IWU. And, while by a slim margin, NCC does have a W over Augie. Something EC wasn't able to do. Things worth considering??

[veterancciwfan]

Too many games left-4 or 5-including Conf. Tourn. Interesting fact on the Pool C board: A road win is worth more in the NCAA rankings which will appear Wednesday. So IWU's road win at Augustana is very important. And NCC's win in Rock Island is also, although I think NCC is on very thin ice regarding a Pool C bid.
Regarding IWU/Augustana game Wed.: Since the Ron Rose era began with the 06/07 season, IWU has won 5 of the 9 games played at Shirk. But since Ron began the 06/07 season with questionable talent (with the exception of Zach Freeman), the fact that 3 of Augustana's 4 wins were in the first 3 years (07, 08, 09) was perhaps not a big surprise. IWU has won 5 of the last 6 with Augie's only win in the CCIW Conf. Tournament semifinals in 2013 (one of the ugliest Shirk games of recent memory-Augie 53  IWU 47).

[AndOne]

Too many games left-4 or 5-including Conf. Tourn. Interesting fact on the Pool C board: A road win is worth more in the NCAA rankings which will appear Wednesday. So IWU's road win at Augustana is very important. And NCC's win in Rock Island is also, although I think NCC is on very thin ice regarding a Pool C bid.
Regarding IWU/Augustana game Wed.: Since the Ron Rose era began with the 06/07 season, IWU has won 5 of the 9 games played at Shirk. But since Ron began the 06/07 season with questionable talent (with the exception of Zach Freeman), the fact that 3 of Augustana's 4 wins were in the first 3 years (07, 08, 09) was perhaps not a big surprise. IWU has won 5 of the last 6 with Augie's only win in the CCIW Conf. Tournament semifinals in 2013 (one of the ugliest Shirk games of recent memory-Augie 53  IWU 47).

NCC is 9-3 in its last 12 games with Augie, including the last 4 in a row AT Augie.
Some serious coat tossin' goin' on! 

[iwu70]

Thanks Q, thanks Slappy.  Very interesting.  Two weeks to go now and every win an important one for many of those Pool C candidates.

Is it possible that Augie wasn't as good as we all thought -- all along?

IWU70

[GoPerry]

Regarding IWU/Augustana game Wed.: Since the Ron Rose era began with the 06/07 season, IWU has won 5 of the 9 games played at Shirk. But since Ron began the 06/07 season with questionable talent (with the exception of Zach Freeman), the fact that 3 of Augustana's 4 wins were in the first 3 years (07, 08, 09) was perhaps not a big surprise. IWU has won 5 of the last 6 with Augie's only win in the CCIW Conf. Tournament semifinals in 2013 (one of the ugliest Shirk games of recent memory-Augie 53  IWU 47).

So could this be summarized as "When Illinois Wesleyan has really good teams with talent, when they play Augustana at home in Shirk, they usually win"?

NCC is 9-3 in its last 12 games with Augie, including the last 4 in a row AT Augie.
Some serious coat tossin' goin' on! 

That is quite a surprising fact (the 4 road wins in a row . . . not the coat tossing).

Is it possible that Augie wasn't as good as we all thought -- all along?

IWU70

I've been sort of thinking this myself- certainly the case lately.  They were good last year, made the CCIW tourney, Pool C, everybody returning, so I think high pre-season ranking and expectations were justified.  Then impressive home W over UWW (although the rest of their non-con schedule not strong at all) and things seemed to be cruising.  An 18-4 record is still pretty solid, but besides a good win @ EC, their conference play has been rather uneven.  They're 1-2 in their last 3 and it'd be no stretch for them to finish that way(@ IWU, vs MU, @ WC(Sr night).