MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[maddog]

Now we wait for I hope will be three CCIW teams in the Tournament. Hey, you guys that are up on this, can you tell what you think? Do both Augie and IWU get in with NCC? Or is it too much to expext three teams to make it?

[Titan Q]

Updated national QOWI through tonight, as posted by Pat Coleman on the Pool C board.  Teams that have secured Pool A/B bids or are a favorite to do so tomorrow are crossed off.  The teams in bold are the 25 highest Pool C candidates, going strictly by QOWI...

1-10
Amherst     12.083     23-1
Lawrence    11.682    22-0
Tufts    11.167    20-4
Worcester Polytech    11.130    20-3
St. John Fisher    11.000    22-1
Mississippi College    11.000    24-1
Lincoln    10.688    12-4
Wittenberg    10.652    20-3
Gordon    10.560    22-3
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3
               
11-20
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3
Augustana    10.478    19-4
Carnegie Mellon    10.474    15-4
Transylvania    10.444    23-4
Cortland State    10.440    22-3
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3
UW-Whitewater    10.304    18-5
William Paterson    10.240    19-6
Hope    10.211    17-2
North Central    10.095    16-5
               
21-30
Bates    10.091    16-6
Carroll    10.087    19-4
Baldwin-Wallace    10.077    22-4
Washington U.    10.050    14-6
Wooster    10.042    21-3
Carleton    10.000    18-5
St. Thomas    9.960    20-5
Alvernia    9.958    21-3
Baruch    9.958    21-3
Illinois Wesleyan    9.952    15-6
               
31-40
Puget Sound    9.944    16-2
Widener    9.920    20-5
Ursinus    9.917    19-5
Lakeland    9.905    17-4
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.875    19-5
UW-Stout    9.870    18-5
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6
Fisk    9.800    10-5
Keene State    9.800    18-7
               
41-50
MIT    9.792    17-7
Trinity (Conn.)    9.750    15-5
Occidental    9.750    12-4
Calvin    9.733    13-2

[Titan Q]

Key conference championship title games tomorrow...

1) Mississippi College @ Howard Payne (2:00pm CST)

2) MIT @ Worcester Polytech (12:00pm CST)

Root like heck for the teams in bold...each is one of the crossed out teams in the top 10 above and a Pool C lock if they lose the Pool A.

[David Collinge]

Here's those top 25 QoWI teams, re-ranked by in-region win %:
Gordon    10.560    22-3         0.880
Cortland State    10.440    22-3         0.880
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3         0.880
Wooster    10.042    21-3         0.875
Baruch    9.958    21-3         0.875
Calvin    9.733    13-2         0.867
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3         0.842
Tufts    11.167    20-4         0.833
Augustana    10.478    19-4         0.826
Carroll    10.087    19-4         0.826
Lakeland    9.905    17-4         0.810
Widener    9.920    20-5         0.800
Ursinus    9.917    19-5         0.792
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.875    19-5         0.792
Carleton    10.000    18-5         0.783
UW-Stout    9.870    18-5         0.783
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6         0.760
Trinity (Conn.)    9.750    15-5         0.750
Occidental    9.750    12-4         0.750
Bates    10.091    16-6         0.727
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7         0.720
Keene State    9.800    18-7         0.720
Illinois Wesleyan    9.952    15-6         0.714
MIT    9.792    17-7         0.708
Washington U.    10.050    14-6         0.700

I apologize for the awful formatting. 

[Titan Q]

Things to remember about Pool C...

Teams are ranked according to a list of 5 "primary criteria":

* Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
* Quality-of-Wins-Index
* In-region head-to-head
* In-region vs common opponents
* In-region vs regionally ranked teams.

While it is not spelled out how these are weighted, the history of Pool C seems to indicate that the first two (in bold) are the biggies.  But, the others certainly do come into play...for example, I don't see any scenario where Wash U gets in over Illinois Wesleyan.  IWU defeated Wash U in their only meeting and otherwise, the numbers are close.

[David Collinge]

...which begs the question, what do the committees (regional then national) do with teams like Calvin (great in-region win %, relatively modest QoWI) and WashU. (great QoWI, mediocre in-region win %)?

I think any team that is both >10 QoWI and >.750 win % is pretty safe.  That's:
Gordon    10.560    22-3         0.880
Cortland State    10.440    22-3         0.880
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3         0.880
Wooster    10.042    21-3         0.875
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3         0.842
Tufts    11.167    20-4         0.833
Augustana    10.478    19-4         0.826
Carroll    10.087    19-4         0.826
Carleton    10.000    18-5         0.783

...exactly half of the 18 Pool C's available.  What do you think of that logic, Q?

[Titan Q]

David, unfortunately I just have no clue.  I don't think anyone really does.  I'd tend to agree with you though...in theory, that makes sense to me.

As you point out, while IWU sits right now at #13 in the QOWI, they are #23 in in-region winning %.  The question obviously becomes, however they balance those two, does IWU end up in the top 18?  I think so, but I'd feel a lot better about it if someone from the committee would explain their process.

[Mr. Ypsi]

There is implicitly a sixth primary criterion built into the procedure - do they even make it to the table to be considered?  (i.e., what is their regional ranking, which, of course, we will never see!) 

IWU, Lakeland, and WashU are all reasonably equal - in QOWI, it is WashU, IWU, Lakeland; in in-region winning % it is the reverse.  Based on last week's regional rankings (and seeing no compelling reason to change), I'm hoping it will be IWU, then the other two, whose order eludes me at the moment.

IF that is the scenario, I think IWU has a very high probability of a C; if not, I fear for their chances.

[Pat Coleman]

I think those two criteria (QOW and w%) are the overarching ones only because everyone has them.

When there is head to head available, I think that trumps.

[dren]

I think that can be extended to 9.9 for QoWI along with .750 in region winning %

9.9 contains the top 10% of all teams and would add

Baruch    9.958    21-3 who is a lock from being a previous #1 seed
Widener 9.920    19-4 20-4
Lakeland    9.905    17-4 is bubbling but I think they are in now with the Washington loss.

[dren]

You could be right... however Wisc Lutheran threw a massive monkey wrench into the midwest region


1 Lawrence 20-0 22-0  MWC  Pool A
2 Augustana 19-4 21-5   CCIW   Lost to IWU in Semis
3 Transylvania 21-4 21-4  HCAC  Pool A
4 Carroll 18-3 20-3  MWC   Lost in Finals
5 Illinois Wesleyan 14-5 19-5  CCIW    Lost in Finals
6 North Central 14-5 20-5  CCIW  Pool A
7 Washington U. 14-5 17-7  UAA   Finished 2nd
8 Lakeland 17-4 21-6  Lost in LMC Semis
NR Wisconsin Lutheran LMC Pool A

[augie_superfan]

I don't think the worry about IWU is valid.  First off, they will be the third at the table behind Augie and Carroll who everyone thinks will be takne early in the Pool C process.  IWU will definitely be ahead of Wash U and Lakeland going into the selections.  There would be no justification for having IWU slip below Wash U or Lakeland from what has since the last regional ranking. 

IWU sould be up to the table with a minimum of 6 Pool C spots left.  I think they will defintely be able to make the tourney if that situation happens.  I guess we will see about it tomorrow (actually today), but I wouldn't worry about IWU's chances.

[Pat Coleman]

Our take on Pool C, including the 18 we'd take if the season ended tonight:

http://www.d3hoops.com/dailydose/?p=146

[cardinalpride]

Chuck, let's have your predicted "only 14 point" wins the rest of the season and post-season.  Impressive win by the Titans tonight.  NCC will be another tough one, though I like our chances given IWU's depth.

Mark,

I've gotten burned too badly on this board  (including for predictions I never even made!) to make any specific prediction, but I DO think the Titans have as good as chance at the 'Walnut and Bronze' as anyone, and better than most.

Was that vague enough to protect my ass?

The hell with it - the Titans are going to finally show why they were the unanimous #1 - they ARE going to win the title.  There, I finally said it, and I'll live with the consequences.

If you were referring to the CCIW Title, wrong again my friend.  N C C !  N C C!  N C C!....That's what the crowd yelled as The North Central College Men's Basketball Team cut down the nets tonight in Rock Island!  Great win for those young men, the program, and the Institution.  After 16 long years the Cardinals are dancin once again!  You gotta Believe!!

[iwu70]

Congrats to North Central on the tourney win and the AQ.  I wish the all the best in the trip toward Salem, unless, of course, the Titans come across their path again.  They played very well.  After that first half, I had little hope IWU could get back in the game, but you have to hand it to our Titans for fighting back after a dismal first half on both ends.  NC played well and had just enough to hold on.  Let's hope all three CCIW teams get in so we can play someone else for a change! 

By the way, the video and audio from Penn Atlantic were much better today for some reason.  It was great to be able sit here in Hong Kong and watch the championship game sipping my Sunday morning coffee and reading the cricket and rugby scores in the South China Morning Post.  A new day indeed.  Let's hope Pat's estimates on Pool C are correct -- as they usually are.