MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[augiefan]

A very disappointing end to a great season for Augie. I expected a close game, but SP left no doubt about who had the better team yesterday. Never easy to face the top teams in the WIAC.

The two finalists did help validate my opinion that the CCIW and the WIAC are consistently the class of DIII MBB. Hopefully the next time the venue for the FF comes up for review, a Midwest location will be selected.

As for Augie's future the loss should keep the talented junior class from getting senioritis. One last chance for seniors. Looking further down the road Coach G has a lot of work to do in recruiting, as the cupboard will be pretty bare at Augie after next year.

[realist]

A very disappointing end to a great season for Augie. I expected a close game, but SP left no doubt about who had the better team yesterday. Never easy to face the top teams in the WIAC.

The two finalists did help validate my opinion that the CCIW and the WIAC are consistently the class of DIII MBB. Hopefully the next time the venue for the FF comes up for review, a Midwest location will be selected.

As for Augie's future the loss should keep the talented junior class from getting senioritis. One last chance for seniors. Looking further down the road Coach G has a lot of work to do in recruiting, as the cupboard will be pretty bare at Augie after next year.

Calvin put in a bid for it several years ago.  They had the women's final 4 this year, and volleyball I believe is at Calvin next fall.  Very hard to pull the men from Salem.  They do a tremendous job, and fight hard to keep it.  It would have been interesting to see how many people would have been at yesterday's final had it been played in GR.

[y_jack_lok]

My way-too-early look at 2015-16...

Clear Favorite
1. Augustana

Clear #2
2. Elmhurst

Top challengers for 3rd
3. Illinois Wesleyan
4. North Park

Top 4 contenders but depends on some stuff
5. North Central
6. Wheaton
7. Millikin

They'll have to prove me wrong
8. Carthage

I believe the strength of the league, top to bottom, will be at an all-time high next season.  All 8 programs are really getting after it right now, and really trying to win.  As you look at my early predictions above I think you will agree that whichever teams end up in spots 6/7/8, the bottom of the league will be really strong.

I think I may have to turn into a CCIW fan next year, as I see my SLIAC programs as falling even further from their already low level... ...  would be fun to become a CCIW chatster....

So instead of trips to Greenville, Elsah, Carlinville, Jacksonville, Fulton, Eureka, Louisville, and maybe Mt. Pleasant, you'll be driving to Decatur, Rock Island, Bloomington, and Chicagoland. Time to buy a new car -- and you might suddenly find yourself in the market for a new wife. 

[John Gleich]

A very disappointing end to a great season for Augie. I expected a close game, but SP left no doubt about who had the better team yesterday. Never easy to face the top teams in the WIAC.

The two finalists did help validate my opinion that the CCIW and the WIAC are consistently the class of DIII MBB. Hopefully the next time the venue for the FF comes up for review, a Midwest location will be selected.

As for Augie's future the loss should keep the talented junior class from getting senioritis. One last chance for seniors. Looking further down the road Coach G has a lot of work to do in recruiting, as the cupboard will be pretty bare at Augie after next year.

Calvin put in a bid for it several years ago.  They had the women's final 4 this year, and volleyball I believe is at Calvin next fall.  Very hard to pull the men from Salem.  They do a tremendous job, and fight hard to keep it.  It would have been interesting to see how many people would have been at yesterday's final had it been played in GR.

There were 3100 people at the championship. That's pretty good for being half way across the country from both teams in the championship.

Even if it had been closer, I don't know how many more UWSP fans would have been at the game. Stevens Point Area Senior High played in the state finals in Madison this weekend (they won their first state title in 21 years yesterday), the men's hockey team hosted in the hockey playoffs and it was spring break for UWSP.

Spring Break actually hurt crowds at home last week... But may have increased the number of Pointer coeds in Salem who stopped off after cutting their trips to points South a bit early.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

FYI - one of the best crowd-supported weekends in Salem in a while. UWSP, Augie, Babson all traveled very well and VWC traveled okay. As for getting another location to outbid Salem... I just don't see it happening any more. Salem always raises the bar each year with something new. This year they raised the bar in an incredible way and flat out outdid themselves. It was a great atmosphere that really made it feel like something far bigger. Hats off to them.

As for the North Central debate... I was lead to believe this weekend that North Central wasn't even at the table at the end... though, I can't remember who was there. However, .667 WL% just isn't going to cut it.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I was just looking over the bracket again, and noticed a curious possibility.  UWSP downed both IWU (2nd round) and Augie (title game); if Elmhurst had not been so exhausted from their 3-OT win over St. Norbert in the Friday late game, they probably would have beaten Northwestern in round two, would probably have been favored against ETBU in round three, and would have faced guess who in the E8!  I have my doubts that any team has ever defeated all three representatives of a single league in the tourney - UWSP might have pulled a unique coup.

[AndOne]

FYI - one of the best crowd-supported weekends in Salem in a while. UWSP, Augie, Babson all traveled very well and VWC traveled okay. As for getting another location to outbid Salem... I just don't see it happening any more. Salem always raises the bar each year with something new. This year they raised the bar in an incredible way and flat out outdid themselves. It was a great atmosphere that really made it feel like something far bigger. Hats off to them.

As for the North Central debate... I was lead to believe this weekend that North Central wasn't even at the table at the end... though, I can't remember who was there. However, .667 WL% just isn't going to cut it.

Dave-
Can you advise us as to what Salem did this year that you found especially impressive? Was this something hey haven't done previously? Thanks.

As far as the North Central "debate".....if W/L% is so darn important, then it appears that good teams in weak conferences have a big advantage. Beat up on your weak neighbors and practically guarantee yourself a ticket to the big dance. This is especially true if you are in a rather large conference without an abundance of non-conference games. Of course you can further cement your position by also scheduling weak non-conference teams. But watch out once you get in the tournament because you could easily get dumped by the third place team from a strong conference---or even then fourth place team if the committee would let them in. 
And, if you are in a strong conference, you better either be one of the nation's elite teams or schedule weak only D3 teams for you non-conference games. The hell with playing a tough SOS schedule because, as perfectly demonstrated this year, it won't get you anywhere but left at the table, if you even get there!
Augustana and UWSP both only lost 5 games this year. North Central gave each of them 20% of their losses. They also beat 1 game tourney winner IWU. They lost by 3 to 1 game tourney winner Elmhurst, and by 7 to two game tourney winner Dickinson. Yes, they should have won the game they lost by 3 to Elmhurst, and they should never have lost to Millikin. According to Massey, NCC played the 13th most difficult schedule in the country. However, that apparently counts for nothing.
Anyone who knows a basketball from a hole in the wall knows a team with Jack Burchett, Charlie Rosenberg, and Jayme Moten, among others, was one of the 62 or 60 or whatever number of teams were in the tournament. JMHO. The defense rests. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

First thought... per wins/losses and SOS... if win/losses was the only thing, Southern Vermont and PSU-Behrend would have been in the tournament without any questions... but they weren't and they weren't close.

The key is you can't loss too many games even if you have a rocking SOS. If you can't win more than 2/3s of your games... you aren't going to be taken completely seriously only because while you may have had a great SOS and some nice wins, you still lost 1/3 of your games. Same goes the other way, if your SOS is weak you BETTER win - plain and simple. Southern Vermont and PSU-Behrend and very sub-par SOS numbers and did a lot of winning... but they needed to win their conference titles to guarantee a spot in the tournament. North Central certainly played a nice schedule, but they won 2/3s of their games... that isn't enough to get into the tournament as an at-large.

As for Salem:
- They jazzed up the team introductions with "smoke" which was lit in the team colors as the teams ran through the tunnels.
- They stepped up team introductions by first turning off most of the arena lights except those pointed on the court, then showed sizzle videos showcasing each team on the video boards as they then introduced the starters using spotlights and intelligent-lights above creating a showcase atmosphere.
- Those spotlights and intelligent-lights were also used to give the arena a more grand feel for the national anthem and when people were walking in. They also were used to pump up the crowd at different times.
- The video boards this year had crowd interaction while also showing the broadcast of the games and helping to celebrate the teams. They were also synced with the PA announcer and bands making for a polished production from start to finish.
- They had team pictures for each of the four teams on the wall leading to their locker rooms as a tribute to the teams.
- They dressed up the lobby and front area even more including a huge wall of pictures of former champions.
- And probably the best part: they moved the Championship Dinner onto the court (after it was prepapred properly), so everyone was sitting on the court for the entire event Thursday making it feel even more unique and special (including using the spotlights to introduce players and coaches and the intelligent-lights to light the stage where much of the ceremony took place).
- Finally, I THINK they had spotlights out front along with out festive items to welcome people to the Civic Center, but considering I got to the arena several hours before most people and left several hours after most nights... I missed some of these things.

Salem took things to a completely different level this year. There were three production trucks (one for WebStream/Turner, one for CBS Sports Network, one for the video board operations) which included video crews for all three entities. I knew some of the things were going to be added, but even I was impressed after seeing everything in action.

I had three time-lapses of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday that I have to put together that may give you a sense of what it was like... I will let you know when they are complete.

[AndOne]

Thanks, Dave.
I appreciate your explanation-on both fronts. 
I honestly wasn't that impressed with the Salem "experience" when I was there 2 years ago, especially the arena itself. From what you related above it sounds like it would be hard for anyone NOT to be impressed. Another level for sure.
Definitely interested in those time lapses.

[sac]

FYI - one of the best crowd-supported weekends in Salem in a while. UWSP, Augie, Babson all traveled very well and VWC traveled okay. As for getting another location to outbid Salem... I just don't see it happening any more. Salem always raises the bar each year with something new. This year they raised the bar in an incredible way and flat out outdid themselves. It was a great atmosphere that really made it feel like something far bigger. Hats off to them.

As for the North Central debate... I was lead to believe this weekend that North Central wasn't even at the table at the end... though, I can't remember who was there. However, .667 WL% just isn't going to cut it.

Dave-
Can you advise us as to what Salem did this year that you found especially impressive? Was this something hey haven't done previously? Thanks.

As far as the North Central "debate".....if W/L% is so darn important, then it appears that good teams in weak conferences have a big advantage. Beat up on your weak neighbors and practically guarantee yourself a ticket to the big dance. This is especially true if you are in a rather large conference without an abundance of non-conference games. Of course you can further cement your position by also scheduling weak non-conference teams. But watch out once you get in the tournament because you could easily get dumped by the third place team from a strong conference---or even then fourth place team if the committee would let them in. 

I find quite the opposite.  Good teams in good conferences have the advantage and have since we went to this SOS system in 2008.  The D3 committee's really started hammering home the SOS part of the process in 2012 (to my recollection at least), the CCIW has had 3 bids in each year since(the only conference to do that btw).  You really can't ask for more than that.  Four bids from one conference has only happened 2 or 3 times, twice from the NESCAC that doesn't play a round-robin.

These are this years conferences that received Pool C bids

MIAC
ODAC
NEWMAC
NEWMAC
NESCAC
NESCAC
NESCAC
LEC
LAND
CC
OAC
OAC
NCAC
NCAC
CCIW
CCIW
WIAC
UAA
NJAC

The only two that didn't rank in top half of Massey's conference rankings are the Landmark(Catholic) and Centennial Conference(Dickinson who btw NCC lost to). 

Its always going to be hard for the 4th team from any conference to gain an at-large by the very nature of the process.  If you are 4th you already have a number of accumulated losses, and you probably lost in the semi-finals of your tournament.  You are most likely going to be near the end of pecking order in your region and thus very late to the Pool C table.   In any given year your criteria might be good enough, but it also might not be just as easily.   Be grateful you're even in a region this year where the 4th team from your conference could get a ranking slot because that couldn't really happen in about 6 of the other 8  regions this year and might be incredibly difficult in the future.

[bopol]

.

The key is you can't loss too many games even if you have a rocking SOS. If you can't win more than 2/3s of your games... you aren't going to be taken completely seriously only because while you may have had a great SOS and some nice wins, you still lost 1/3 of your games. Same goes the other way, if your SOS is weak you BETTER win - plain and simple. Southern Vermont and PSU-Behrend and very sub-par SOS numbers and did a lot of winning... but they needed to win their conference titles to guarantee a spot in the tournament. North Central certainly played a nice schedule, but they won 2/3s of their games... that isn't enough to get into the tournament as an at-large.

The key for a CCIW team should be to run up a strong non-conference record (even if that means playing a weak schedule) and then getting the SOS from playing each other while not racking up too many losses.  The goal should be no more than 7 losses, which North Central would have gotten if they hadn't played a tougher nonconference schedule because we can't expect the committee to look into it deeply enough and guys like Dave will defend the point on the forums.

[Pat Coleman]

Even in one of the best conferences, you need to go better than 8-6. That's just not going to cut it.

All the talk about scheduling weaker ... how about just inviting D3 teams to your home tournament? That's a start.

I think North Central was on the table at the end but was a roadblock.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If you listened to any of the interviews we conducted with the committee chairs in the last few years... you would understand they dive deep into the criteria wherever they can to make the best decisions possible. You may think I am defending... in reality, I am pointing out what I have been told in interviews and conversations I have on a weekly basis with members of the committee. Those conversations have been invaluable in understanding how the process works. In fact, they resulted in me being very disappointed in some of the decisions last year including bracketing because I didn't think it fit what I was being told. This year, I wasn't surprised by any of the decisions.

Now, if you want to gamble and play a week non-conference so you can win games and improve your WL%... go ahead. But remember, playing a double round-robin the CCIW will give you at least a .500 SOS... but maybe a slightly better one since the top of the conference will be playing pretty good opponents, usually. So if you go and play a schedule which SOS is below what the conference is already giving you... then you can't afford to lose any games... period. PSU-Behrend was 23-4 and Southern Vermont was 25-4... it isn't always about the WL% if your SOS is sub-par. It isn't always about the SOS, either, if you can't win more games.

[bopol]

If you listened to any of the interviews we conducted with the committee chairs in the last few years... you would understand they dive deep into the criteria wherever they can to make the best decisions possible. You may think I am defending... in reality, I am pointing out what I have been told in interviews and conversations I have on a weekly basis with members of the committee. Those conversations have been invaluable in understanding how the process works. In fact, they resulted in me being very disappointed in some of the decisions last year including bracketing because I didn't think it fit what I was being told. This year, I wasn't surprised by any of the decisions.

Now, if you want to gamble and play a week non-conference so you can win games and improve your WL%... go ahead. But remember, playing a double round-robin the CCIW will give you at least a .500 SOS... but maybe a slightly better one since the top of the conference will be playing pretty good opponents, usually. So if you go and play a schedule which SOS is below what the conference is already giving you... then you can't afford to lose any games... period. PSU-Behrend was 23-4 and Southern Vermont was 25-4... it isn't always about the WL% if your SOS is sub-par. It isn't always about the SOS, either, if you can't win more games.

Obviously, you don't know how SOS works or you wouldn't make a comment like you did about CCIW giving you at least a .500 SOS...but maybe slightly more.   Elmhurst played a weak non-conference schedule (only 3 of the nonconference opponents were above 500 and Dubuque was the only RRO)  and ended up with a SOS of .551.  So, pay attention and read this carefully. 

If the committee doesn't care about beating teams like UWSP and Augustana when they make their decision and get confused by really high SOS when dealing with 8 loss teams, then the CCIW teams are better off scheduling their nonconference games so that they don't take a loss and can absorb 7 losses in conference play.

Comprede?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

bopol - the math usually leads to a double round-robin of .500 because for every win there is a loss and for ever loss there is a win. For every 1.25 road multiplier there is a .75 home multiplier. Thus why everyone works on the base that conference SOS will give you .500 - however, I indicated that because of out of conference scheduling for a lot of CCIW teams, that SOS would probably be higher. You example of Elmhurst having a .551 doesn't show their conference only SOS. Furthermore, while they had some weak opponents... they also had some strong opponents and tapped into the MIAA on several occasions along with the IIAC and the MIAC. While the direct games count for 2/3s... the OOWP got them a decent 1/3 with those three conferences.

I do know how the SOS works as best as anyone who has stared at it and discussed it almost non-stop with those who work with it can be. I know that the trick for the NESCAC is they don't play a double round-robin (except for a few schools) allows their SOS to not take a second round of games to even off... while also giving many of those teams the chance to play the top of any conference they want... giving them a very nice OWP while being able to absorb the OOWP of weak conferences. Thus the fact Bates had the best SOS in the country at .609 and Amherst had a .579 (despite teams like Goucher on their schedule) and Bowdoin had .571.

And there is the best example we can bring up with North Central... Bowdoin didn't make the tournament despite a .571 SOS (NC: .570) because their record was .692 (18-8) and 1-6 vRRO (last we knew). North Central had an equal SOS, a lower WL%, and a 3-6 vRRO (last we knew).

But to your point about the committee not caring about beating UWSP and Augustana... they do care about those, but they also care about the losses to Augustana which probably negates the one win, a loss to Dickinson (which may help or hurt - depending on how they read a loss to what ended up being a #1 regionally ranked team on a neutral floor), and losses to North Park (15-10), Millikin (8-17), the two losses to Elmhurst, and a loss to Illinois Wesleyan (despite a win).

So to recap: wins over UWSP and Augustana are being considered along with losses to Augustana (2), Elmhurst (2), Dickinson, Illinois Wesleyan, North Park, and Millikin. You might want to only focus on the wins... but the committee both regionally (where this starts) and nationally are going to also focus on the losses and of the wins in North Central's vRRO... one was to the top of the region (along with two losses)... another was to a mid-level (UWSP a 3 at best - they were technically a three-seed in the tournament)... and the other was a bottom level (6 to Illinois Wesleyan). The six losses: three to number one teams (Dickinson became a #1 in the final rankings and Augustana stayed there as well) and three to low ranked teams (IWU and Elmhurst). That's a mixed bag at best and honestly not something the committee will probably be impressed with.

And by the way... losing seven games in any conference is going to put a team in a world of trouble when it comes to an at-large selection. You need to have a better SOS to help that... not a low one to put a team further in the hole. Because losing games is still losing games. It's not adding to the win column for a team. North Central needed to not lose to North Park and Millikin so they could have been 20-6 with a .571-ish SOS and THAT could have put them in the conversation for an at-large bid.