MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[kiko]

Current Massey (SoS in parentheses):

    1. Augustana (6)
    4. Elmhurst (9)
    8. North Central (1)
  20. North Park (6)
  62. Illinois Wesleyan (5)
139. Carthage (29)
186. Wheaton (11)
207. Millikin (46)

Massey sez:

North Central 76, @ Millikin 60 (NCC 92% favorite)
@ Augustana 74, Elmhurst 66 (AC 77% favorite)
@ North Park 84, Carthage 74 (NPU 83% favorite)
Illinois Wesleyan 76, @ Wheaton 72 (IWU 63% favorite)

I had not noticed NCC's SOS before Sager's post.  #1!  The Cardinals did play a very tough pre CCIW schedule.  I hope that is considered if they don't get the CCIW's automatic qualifier and are on the bubble at selection time.

I thought NCC should have made it last year and Carthage the year before.

I think they were #2 last week, and playing Elmhurst pushed them to the top of the list.

[CCIW >]

Also, Greg, you claim to be good at reading into BS, yet I did not attend NCC or play basketball for NCC.

That's not what I've been told.
[/quote]

Hahahaha. What?!?!
That makes almost no sense GS.

[kiko]

I went to NCC and I played PG. Does that make me eligible for the First Team?

I don't know if you would make first team, but that is certainly a first team 'stache in your avatar...

[CCIW >]

Since NCC claims he did not attend North Central, perhaps I can hope that he will change his handle to, I don't know, Vinnie the Viking.  That way one of our Scandinavian-inspired institutions can bask in the reflected glory of his wisdom, rather than North Central enjoying this special benefit.

I didn't like Vinnie the Viking, but figured I'd make a name change per your request to reflect my general CCIW respect

[Titan Q]

Illinois Wesleyan (9-9, 3-4) at Wheaton (5-13, 1-6), 7:00pm

Illinois Wesleyan (9-9, 3-4)
G - Joel Pennington, 6-0/180 Sr.  (9.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 rpg)
G - Bryce Dolan, 6-1/165 Sr.  (14.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.2 apg)
G - Andy Stempel, 6-4/192 Jr.  (9.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.5 apg)
F - Ryan Coyle, 6-6/210 Sr.  (8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg)
F - Trevor Seibring, 6-8/235 Jr.  (15.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg)

Wheaton (5-13, 1-6)
G - Troy Morrison, 5-11/165 Fr.  (2.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.2 apg)
G - Jonathan Bernsten, 6-0/190 Sr.  (12.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 4.0 apg)
G - Ricky Samuelson, 6-3/185 So.  (12.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.9 apg)
F - Murad Dillard, 6-4/175 So.  (8.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg)
F - Michael Berg, 6-6/210 Sr.  (15.7 ppg, 8.9 rpg)


Pantagraph - http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/basketball/men/freshmen-flashing-promise-for-iwu/article_6de8a838-d3f3-5725-b8c0-87ffcc484406.html

Live Video - http://portal.stretchinternet.com/wheaton/

Live Stats - http://www.sidearmstats.com/wheaton/mbball/

WJBC Radio - http://portal.stretchinternet.com/wjbc/

[Rafi]

Ummmm, although this has been some entertaining reading, I think you're getting trolled.

[iwu70]

Greg is right, most CCIW chatster have good BS antenna.  I've just sort of lifted my feet and let the BS flow on by -- esp. this discussion of the first-team All-CCIW players so far. 

Lots of basketball to be played.  I'm pretty sure by the end of the day Dolan and T. Seibring will be on an all-CCIW team at some level.  And, deservedly so.

The Titans will need to beat NPU at home and get some other help along the way now to make the top four and the CCIW tournament.

IWU'70

[GoPerry]

Massey has IWU by 4 over WC at King tonight.  That feels a little light to me- the Thunder have their moments but just don't seem to have 40 minute sustainability these days.  Still, I doubt Coach Rose will overlook Wheaton tonight as Coach Schauer and crew are still working hard and hungry for that complete game victory.  If Berg can stay out of foul trouble, play Seibring to a standstill, and the team stay close on O/D rebounds, then Wheaton will  have a chance.

[havej]

GS - totally agree with you on J Henry and some nights required to do too much.  Played with many guys similar and you have to admire and respect the fact he sometimes forces the action when his squad his flat.  You may laugh but it takes talent and supreme confidence to want to "put a team on your back."

In no way were my initial comments meant to be disrespectful - I find him extremely talented and love his motor.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Current Massey (SoS in parentheses):

    1. Augustana (6)
    4. Elmhurst (9)
    8. North Central (1)
  20. North Park (6)
  62. Illinois Wesleyan (5)
139. Carthage (29)
186. Wheaton (11)
207. Millikin (46)

Massey sez:

North Central 76, @ Millikin 60 (NCC 92% favorite)
@ Augustana 74, Elmhurst 66 (AC 77% favorite)
@ North Park 84, Carthage 74 (NPU 83% favorite)
Illinois Wesleyan 76, @ Wheaton 72 (IWU 63% favorite)

I had not noticed NCC's SOS before Sager's post.  #1!  The Cardinals did play a very tough pre CCIW schedule.  I hope that is considered if they don't get the CCIW's automatic qualifier and are on the bubble at selection time.

I thought NCC should have made it last year and Carthage the year before.

But we have been here before with NCC or another CCIW team a few years ago (NCC? Carthage? Coming up with a complete blank right now). A great SOS is nice, but at some point a committee is going to want to see a team win more games against that SOS. There isn't a definetely line in terms of how many losses is too many as it varies year to year based on what is going on around the country, but the one thing that remains constant is a great SOS with more than a fair share of losses isn't going to get a team an at-large berth. Sure, their SOS is going to be considered, but so are the losses and the WL%, more importantly.

Cardinals have five losses right now. They would have six if they don't have the AQ and that I think is a safe number, but do we really think they get through the rest of the CCIW schedule unscathed? For argument's sake, let's say they finish with eight losses... that puts them squarely in the trouble-zone come Selection Sunday no matter the SOS.

[Titan Q]

Bringing this back regarding NCC and Pool C...

Here are the 19 Pool C selections from last season -- my best guess (from selection day 2015) at the order they were picked in.

(D3 winning percentage/Strength of Schedule/Results vs Regionally Ranked)

1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
4. (C)  Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. (GL) John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (NE) Springfield (.704/.584/3-5)

Not Selected: (C) North Central (.667/.587/3-6)[/b]

The lowest winning percentage selected was .704.

* If IWU finishes the non-conference 7-4, goes 10-4 in the CCIW, and 1-1 in the conference tournament...that's 18-9 (.667).  11-3 in the CCIW is 19-8 (.704).

* NCC has a big problem in that its final non-conference game (vs NAIA Robert Morris-Chicago) won't count.  NCC's non-conference record is locked in at 6-4.  10-4/1-1 = 17-9 (.654).  11-3 in the CCIW = 18-8 (.692).

So I'm staying with the thought that IWU needs 11-3.  And considering the Robert Morris-Chicago situation, I don't think 11-3 is good enough for NCC.  (Something tells me NCC sneaks in in the 11-3 scenario...but it would be at the end of the bubble.)

North Park is 6-3 -- but probably without the SOS of IWU and NCC.

[bbfan44]

It is unfortunate that early season losses seem to weigh as heavily as any other losses with regard to Pool C selection.  Many teams, NC for example, have so many new players that they are still learning each others names in Nov and Dec.  They seem to have come together nicely as Coach Raridon and his staff have guided them to a terrific 1st half of the conference games.  Every team probably has 1 or 2 games a season that don't make sense.  NC will hope they've had theirs.

[GoPerry]

Bringing this back regarding NCC and Pool C...

Here are the 19 Pool C selections from last season -- my best guess (from selection day 2015) at the order they were picked in.

(D3 winning percentage/Strength of Schedule/Results vs Regionally Ranked)

1. (GL) Marietta (.893/.519/4-3)
2. (MA) Johns Hopkins (.852/.539/3-3)
3. (C) UW-Stevens Point (.808/.575/2-4)
4. (C)  Washington U. (.800/.565/4-2)
5. (GL) Ohio Wesleyan (.815/.537/3-1)
6. (NE) Trinity-Conn. (.792/.535/5-1)
7. (NE) Amherst (.741/.579/6-3)
8. (NE) Bates (.760/.609/4-5)
9. (AT) William Patterson (.741/.565/4-3)
10. (GL) Wooster (.786/.551/3-2)
11. (C) Illinois Wesleyan (.704/.591/5-5)
12. (C) Elmhurst (.731/.551/4-4)
13. (S) Virginia Wesleyan (.815/.554/0-4)
14. (GL) John Carroll (.769/.527/3-3)
15. (W) St. Olaf (.808/.527/1-5)
16. (MA) Catholic (.846/.506/1-3)
17. (NE) Eastern Conn. (.815/.550/0-2)
18. (NE) WPI (.808/.515/2-3)
19. (NE) Springfield (.704/.584/3-5)

Not Selected: (C) North Central (.667/.587/3-6)[/b]

The lowest winning percentage selected was .704.

* If IWU finishes the non-conference 7-4, goes 10-4 in the CCIW, and 1-1 in the conference tournament...that's 18-9 (.667).  11-3 in the CCIW is 19-8 (.704).

* NCC has a big problem in that its final non-conference game (vs NAIA Robert Morris-Chicago) won't count.  NCC's non-conference record is locked in at 6-4.  10-4/1-1 = 17-9 (.654).  11-3 in the CCIW = 18-8 (.692).

So I'm staying with the thought that IWU needs 11-3.  And considering the Robert Morris-Chicago situation, I don't think 11-3 is good enough for NCC.  (Something tells me NCC sneaks in in the 11-3 scenario...but it would be at the end of the bubble.)

North Park is 6-3 -- but probably without the SOS of IWU and NCC.

Exactly what I was thinking.   NCC needs to go 11-3 in conference just to get on the bubble to get their SOS considered.  On the other hand, guessing their record vs RR opponents(my own projection) is looking like 1-5 right now (W-Elmhurst, L-Chicago, Aurora, Alma, BenU, Augie) and this could be a problem. It goes to Dave's point; SOS means less if you lose all the games that make your schedule strong.

11-3 is certainly looking possible for them; Augie @ home a week from today will be huge with road games @ NPU and EC remaining.  No other margin for error.

[Naperick]

Current Massey (SoS in parentheses):

    1. Augustana (6)
    4. Elmhurst (9)
    8. North Central (1)
  20. North Park (6)
  62. Illinois Wesleyan (5)
139. Carthage (29)
186. Wheaton (11)
207. Millikin (46)

Massey sez:

North Central 76, @ Millikin 60 (NCC 92% favorite)
@ Augustana 74, Elmhurst 66 (AC 77% favorite)
@ North Park 84, Carthage 74 (NPU 83% favorite)
Illinois Wesleyan 76, @ Wheaton 72 (IWU 63% favorite)

I had not noticed NCC's SOS before Sager's post.  #1!  The Cardinals did play a very tough pre CCIW schedule.  I hope that is considered if they don't get the CCIW's automatic qualifier and are on the bubble at selection time.

I thought NCC should have made it last year and Carthage the year before.

But we have been here before with NCC or another CCIW team a few years ago (NCC? Carthage? Coming up with a complete blank right now). A great SOS is nice, but at some point a committee is going to want to see a team win more games against that SOS. There isn't a definite line in terms of how many losses is too many as it varies year to year based on what is going on around the country, but the one thing that remains constant is a great SOS with more than a fair share of losses isn't going to get a team an at-large berth. Sure, their SOS is going to be considered, but so are the losses and the WL%, more importantly.

Cardinals have five losses right now. They would have six if they don't have the AQ and that I think is a safe number, but do we really think they get through the rest of the CCIW schedule unscathed? For argument's sake, let's say they finish with eight losses... that puts them squarely in the trouble-zone come Selection Sunday no matter the SOS.

Great points, D-Mac!  I think an 8th loss makes Selection Sunday (or is it Monday?) a scary day. 

After 4 losses in the pre CCIW part of their schedule, the Cardinals have definitely played their way back into contention. 

Another 6-1 stretch should get them in.  5-2 or less in the 2nd half of CCIW play probably means they need to win the CCIW tourney.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

It is actually Selection Sunday since all of the work is done on that day... we just don't see the announcement until Monday.