MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[gordonmann]

Around the Nation focuses on D3 alums playing professionally, including Hunter Hill of Augustana:

http://www.d3hoops.com/columns/around-the-nation/2016-17/going-pro-from-division-3

And thanks for the correction, Greg.

[iwumichigander]

Looking at Augustana's remaining schedule , I just do not see any result other than a first place finish.  If I am right, it is a race for 2-4 with NPU having a slight advantage.  But it is IMHO, an open race for 2-4.  It looks like another,groan, CCIW tournament in Rock Island.

I don't get that and I'm not sure how you are evaluating it that way vis a vis NPU.  Augie has already lost to them at home and will have to play them again on the road.  NPU owns the tie-breaker.  So in my mind, Augie and NPU are practically tied for first right now.  If both teams win out leading up to Feb 18, then whoever wins that game will take over first place in the conference(for tourney seeding) and will host provided they both win their last game.  What am I missing?

You are not necessarily missing anything.  I expressed a point in time opinion.  And,  I did get several of you posters to weigh in which was another thing I was attempting to do!

[Augie6]

Looking at Augustana's remaining schedule , I just do not see any result other than a first place finish.  If I am right, it is a race for 2-4 with NPU having a slight advantage.  But it is IMHO, an open race for 2-4.  It looks like another,groan, CCIW tournament in Rock Island.

I don't get that and I'm not sure how you are evaluating it that way vis a vis NPU.  Augie has already lost to them at home and will have to play them again on the road.  NPU owns the tie-breaker.  So in my mind, Augie and NPU are practically tied for first right now.  If both teams win out leading up to Feb 18, then whoever wins that game will take over first place in the conference(for tourney seeding) and will host provided they both win their last game.  What am I missing?

You are not necessarily missing anything.  I expressed a point in time opinion.  And,  I did get several of you posters to weigh in which was another thing I was attempting to do!

I tend to agree that Augie has the advantage and, IMO, it's based on how the teams have been playing over the past several games.  Clearly NCC and IWU are being impacted by injuries to top players and that has had an impact on their play.  After a strong start, Carthage has fallen off with 2 losses in a row.  When I look at Augie vs NPU, it's a matter of how the teams have been playing over the past several games that, I think, gives Augie the advantage.  Augie has won their past 6 games and has won their past 4 CCIW games (vs NCC, IWU, Carroll and Elmhurst) by an average of 15+ points per game (all 4 games with a double digit margin of victory). NPU has won their last 4 CCIW games (vs NCC, Wheaton, Elmhurst & Millikin), but the margins of victory were 3,4,2 and 28 points.  They also had a non conference loss in that timeframe to a 5-11 Manchester team.  Augie is simply playing better than all other CCIW teams over the past few weeks.  Who knows if this will continue, but Augie seems to be settling in with the players figuring out their roles on the team.  With Augie's depth (10 players averaging at least 10 minutes/game) and balance (5 players averaging double figures) they have to be considered the favorites.  No question the second half CCIW schedule will be tough, with 5 of 8 on the road, including traveling to IWU, NPU, Carthage and Carroll.  Can't wait to see how it all plays out.  Should be a great finish to the CCIW regular season. 

[4samuy]

You are right on the money. Augustana dropped a few spots after a convincing win over Elmhurst last night and IMHO it was due to the terrible strength of schedule and record of Elmhurst.

Actually, Augustana beat the Massey spread, so I don't think that that's why Augie fell. Augie was an 11-point Massey favorite, and Grey's boys won by 16.

I think it was more a matter of what the other teams around Augustana in the Massey Ratings did than what Augie did, and/or it was about what Augustana's past foes did.

You could be right since there are many factors that go into Massey rankings such as win loss%, margin of victory vs Massey spread, over all strength of conference as it relates to win loss % and strength of teams you play and their win loss %, their margins of victory and their SOS. I haven't dug to deep into what teams around them did because I would like to keep my sanity.  IMHO Augustana dropped due to the fact that they played and beat a team that was somewhere in the 200s (that is an uninformed guess) in Massey ratings metrics

[sac]

You are right on the money. Augustana dropped a few spots after a convincing win over Elmhurst last night and IMHO it was due to the terrible strength of schedule and record of Elmhurst.

Actually, Augustana beat the Massey spread, so I don't think that that's why Augie fell. Augie was an 11-point Massey favorite, and Grey's boys won by 16.

I think it was more a matter of what the other teams around Augustana in the Massey Ratings did than what Augie did, and/or it was about what Augustana's past foes did.

You could be right since there are many factors that go into Massey rankings such as win loss%, margin of victory vs Massey spread, over all strength of conference as it relates to win loss % and strength of teams you play and their win loss %, their margins of victory and their SOS. I haven't dug to deep into what teams around them did because I would like to keep my sanity.  IMHO Augustana dropped due to the fact that they played and beat a team that was somewhere in the 200s (that is an uninformed guess) in SOS and SOS is part of the Massey metrics

Maybe its a cookies issue with my computer but as of 11pm Friday  I still see massey hasn't updated Augustana's game vs Elmhurst.  I believe all other relevant games have been entered.     LaCrosse, Oshkosh and Calvin all lost, those would affect Augustana's ranking.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=427&s=292154

[4samuy]

Great point.  Thanks

[Gregory Sager]

You are right on the money. Augustana dropped a few spots after a convincing win over Elmhurst last night and IMHO it was due to the terrible strength of schedule and record of Elmhurst.

Actually, Augustana beat the Massey spread, so I don't think that that's why Augie fell. Augie was an 11-point Massey favorite, and Grey's boys won by 16.

I think it was more a matter of what the other teams around Augustana in the Massey Ratings did than what Augie did, and/or it was about what Augustana's past foes did.

You could be right since there are many factors that go into Massey rankings such as win loss%, margin of victory vs Massey spread, over all strength of conference as it relates to win loss % and strength of teams you play and their win loss %, their margins of victory and their SOS. I haven't dug to deep into what teams around them did because I would like to keep my sanity.  IMHO Augustana dropped due to the fact that they played and beat a team that was somewhere in the 200s (that is an uninformed guess) in SOS and SOS is part of the Massey metrics

Maybe its a cookies issue with my computer but as of 11pm Friday  I still see massey hasn't updated Augustana's game vs Elmhurst.  I believe all other relevant games have been entered.     LaCrosse, Oshkosh and Calvin all lost, those would affect Augustana's ranking.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=427&s=292154

I sent Ken an e-mail this evening, so it should be updated shortly.

[Gregory Sager]

The Augustana @ Elmhurst game still hasn't been entered in yet, but here's the current Massey, anyway:

    8. Augustana
  17. Illinois Wesleyan
  25. North Park
  39. Carthage
  62. North Central
110. Carroll
122. Wheaton
178. Elmhurst
295. Millikin

Massey sez:

Augustana 80, @ Millikin 61 (AC 95%, MU 5%)
North Central 75, @ Elmhurst 70 (NCC 67%, EC 33%)
@ Wheaton 78, Carthage 76 (WC 55%, CC 45%)
Illinois Wesleyan 73, @ Carroll 67 (IWU 72%, CU 28%)
North Park 85, @ Illinois Tech 80 (NPU 66%, IIT 34%)

[Gregory Sager]

As anyone who watched Illinois Tech (11-5) take Carthage right down to the final buzzer in Tarble last week can attest, the Scarlet Hawks are good -- good enough to make me nervous. Anthony Mosley (20.6 ppg) would be a standout on any CCIW team; his running mate in the backcourt Malik Howze (15.9 ppg) is very solid; and 6'6, 220 center Sam Rarick (13.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg) is the type of post player that NPU characteristically finds hard to defend.

The romp over Millikin notwithstanding, the Vikings haven't been playing very good ball lately. They'll need to be at the top of their game this afternoon down at 31st and Wabash.

[Greek Tragedy]

Ill. Tech 81
North Park 77

http://www.d3hoops.com/seasons/men/2016-17/boxscores/20170121_kq3w.xml

[Mr. Ypsi]

IWU falls to Carroll, 63-67.  Colin Bonnett led the way with 19 points; Brady Rose added 17 (but was just 1-7 from deep).  Trevor Seibring is back, but fouled out after just 17 minutes (4 points, 4 rebounds), leading me to suspect (I missed watching the game, thinking for some reason it was a night game) that he was either very rusty or not yet quite 100% (or that the refs hate him ) - but still very encouraging to see him return.

Carroll did a great job of spreading it around, with players scoring 18, 15, 13, and 11.

As this was the Titans' fifth loss, I think they now must go AT LEAST 6-2 (preferably 7-1) or else win the conference tourney (which they have NEVER done, even in seasons they've gone to Salem) or will probably be staying home in March.

[iwu70]

Surely a bad loss for the Titans at Carroll.  Agree with you Ypsi, hard to see them getting to March now unless via the AQ.  Live by the three, die by the three.  CCIW always tough on the road, no matter, but you have to make shots.  Sounds like Seibring is not yet 100 %.

IWU'70

[kiko]

Elmhurst over North Central 87-78 at Faganel

Augie rolls past Millikin 69-53 at the Griz

[4samuy]

The Augustana @ Elmhurst game still hasn't been entered in yet, but here's the current Massey, anyway:

    8. Augustana
  17. Illinois Wesleyan
  25. North Park
  39. Carthage
  62. North Central
110. Carroll
122. Wheaton
178. Elmhurst
295. Millikin

Massey sez:

Augustana 80, @ Millikin 61 (AC 95%, MU 5%)
North Central 75, @ Elmhurst 70 (NCC 67%, EC 33%)
@ Wheaton 78, Carthage 76 (WC 55%, CC 45%)
Illinois Wesleyan 73, @ Carroll 67 (IWU 72%, CU 28%)
North Park 85, @ Illinois Tech 80 (NPU 66%, IIT 34%)

Strange day.  Augie and Wheaton the only favorites to win.

[AppletonRocks]

I told you regulars that Carroll was for real.