MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[iwu70]

He is a sharp object.  No safety there.  I think my word was fading . . . and I'll stick with it.

Yes, tough losses for Augie and NPU -- WC and Carroll refusing to stay back.

What a great CCIW race, though may take our chances of a second entry into the Dance away.  Hard to get in with 8-9 losses.

IWU'70

[blue_jays]

If everything breaks wrong, one-bid league this year is a significant possibility. Most likely it will be 2 max, especially if Augie loses in CCIW tourney. Too much parity = too many losses = all on the bubble.

[Titan Q]

If everything breaks wrong, one-bid league this year is a significant possibility. Most likely it will be 2 max, especially if Augie loses in CCIW tourney. Too much parity = too many losses = all on the bubble.

Agree.  Odds are 2 bids (one Pool A, one Pool C)...but it's not crazy to think the CCIW gets shutout of Pool C if things go the wrong way in the final week and a half.

I'll put more numbers to this later, but it's probable that the CCIW only has two realistic Pool C candidates right now - Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan.  Augie and IWU can both either help or hurt their Pool C position in the final week and a half.  Any negatives to the resume could be enough to put either of these teams down at the end of the bubble.

I think Carthage and North Park are both out of Pool C consideration most likely.  If I'm wrong, they are at the end of the bubble at best right now - meaning they absolutely cannot afford another loss in order to stay on the bubble.

Assuming Augustana is the Pool A, IWU is by far the CCIW's strongest candidate for Pool C as things stand right now.  I believe if IWU goes 3-0 the rest of the way the Titans are a lock regardless of what happens in the conference tournament semifinal game...I believe 2-1 still puts IWU in pretty good position (albeit on the bubble and a nervous selection day)...2 losses or more would mean no chance.  Right now IWU has 3 very significant non-conference wins - Loras, Ohio Wesleyan, Wash U.  All are regionally ranked at the moment...and the Titans really need all 3 to stay in the rankings. Had IWU beaten Middlebury (lost in final seconds) the Titans would be just about a lock right now.

[Titan Q]

Rats! Beat me by a couple of minutes, Tom!

Here it is for those of you who'd rather see it spelled out here:

CENTRAL               

Rank	School	In-Region Record	Overall Record
1	UW-River Falls	17-2	19-2
2	Washington (MO)	17-3	17-3
3	UW-Whitewater	17-3	18-3
4	Augustana	17-4	17-4
5	UW-Eau Claire	14-6	15-6
6	Benedictine	18-3	18-4
7	North Park	15-5	15-5
8	Illinois Wesleyan	14-6	14-6

Here is KnightSlappy's new regional rankings simulation, using WP, SOS, and RRO data - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.

Using his black and white RPI formula, he has the CCIW this way:
  1. Illinois Wesleyan (.727/.557/3-4)
  2. Carthage (.667/.569/3-4)
  3. Augustana (.783/.522/1-2)
  4. North Park (.682/.527/3-0)
 
As I look at all 3 data points and subjectively try to order these 4 - including considering the week one Central Region rankings - I'd go:
  1. Augustana (.783/.522/1-2) 
  2. Illinois Wesleyan (.727/.557/3-4)
  3. Carthage (.667/.569/3-4)
  4. North Park (.682/.527/3-0)
 

Now seeing the data...

* I'd concur with what I said earlier -- IWU is currently in the best Pool C shape but has to finish strong (at Wheaton, vs NCC, vs Augustana) to stay there.

* Augustana, our presumed Pool A right now, is not a Pool C lock by any stretch.  If the Vikings have a rough finish (at North Park, at IWU) they will end up on the bubble should they not win the CCIW tourney.

* I think Carthage is in a little better shape than I thought - if the Red Men win out (vs NCC, at Millikin, vs Wheaton), I believe they can make an end-of-the-bubble case around SOS and RRO.

* I think North Park is in trouble with a low WP and not enough SOS to offset that.  The 3-0 vs RRO is obviously great but I don't think enough.  It's safe to say NPU absolutely has to win out (at Carroll, vs Augustana, vs Millikin) to get to the bubble.

[sac]

I think both Carthage and North Park have to win out and make the CCIW Tournament Championship game, even then that's a maximum win% of .703 at 19-8 for North Park, .692 at 18-8 for Carthage.

Very much on the low end of the bubble, yes?

[Titan Q]

I think both Carthage and North Park have to win out and make the CCIW Tournament Championship game, even then that's a maximum win% of .703 at 19-8 for North Park, .692 at 18-8 for Carthage.

Very much on the low end of the bubble, yes?

Agree.

[iwumichigander]

I think both Carthage and North Park have to win out and make the CCIW Tournament Championship game, even then that's a maximum win% of .703 at 19-8 for North Park, .692 at 18-8 for Carthage.

Very much on the low end of the bubble, yes?

Agree.

this year 8 losses might get a team or more into Pool C but not without strong other criteria like SOS and/or vRRO.  7 losses with at least one of the two criteria being strong might get a team in above an 8 loss team.  Also, I think the CCIW needs a little help from the WIAC to beat themselves up as certainly the CCIW is going to do just that.

[Titan Q]

CCIW Pool C hopefuls also need Wash U to win the UAA's Pool A bid (and not be lined up ahead of the CCIW teams in the Central Region Pool C line).

Wash U is down 9 at halftime, at home, to Rochester - http://bearsports-livestats.wustl.edu/basketball/xlive.htm.  A comeback win would clinch the UAA for the Bears.  A loss and things get a bit dicey for Wash U vs Rochester in terms of Pool A.

[sac]

I think both Carthage and North Park have to win out and make the CCIW Tournament Championship game, even then that's a maximum win% of .703 at 19-8 for North Park, .692 at 18-8 for Carthage.

Very much on the low end of the bubble, yes?

Agree.

this year 8 losses might get a team or more into Pool C but not without strong other criteria like SOS and/or vRRO.  7 losses with at least one of the two criteria being strong might get a team in above an 8 loss team.  Also, I think the CCIW needs a little help from the WIAC to beat themselves up as certainly the CCIW is going to do just that.

SOS of current teams with 7 losses
Williams   .580
Keene St.  .572
Carthage .569
Mass-Dartmouth .561
Catholic .557
Emory .544
Wooster .544
Carleton .541
LaVerne  .529
North Park .527
Randolph-Macon  .525
Emory & Henry .514
TCNJ  .520
Old Westbury .508


Pretty crowded group right now for maybe 2 or 3 bids going to 8 loss teams.

[kiko]

Rats! Beat me by a couple of minutes, Tom!

Here it is for those of you who'd rather see it spelled out here:

CENTRAL               

Rank	School	In-Region Record	Overall Record
1	UW-River Falls	17-2	19-2
2	Washington (MO)	17-3	17-3
3	UW-Whitewater	17-3	18-3
4	Augustana	17-4	17-4
5	UW-Eau Claire	14-6	15-6
6	Benedictine	18-3	18-4
7	North Park	15-5	15-5
8	Illinois Wesleyan	14-6	14-6

Here is KnightSlappy's new regional rankings simulation, using WP, SOS, and RRO data - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/.

Using his black and white RPI formula, he has the CCIW this way:
  1. Illinois Wesleyan (.727/.557/3-4)
  2. Carthage (.667/.569/3-4)
  3. Augustana (.783/.522/1-2)
  4. North Park (.682/.527/3-0)
 
As I look at all 3 data points and subjectively try to order these 4 - including considering the week one Central Region rankings - I'd go:
  1. Augustana (.783/.522/1-2) 
  2. Illinois Wesleyan (.727/.557/3-4)
  3. Carthage (.667/.569/3-4)
  4. North Park (.682/.527/3-0)
 

Now seeing the data...

* I'd concur with what I said earlier -- IWU is currently in the best Pool C shape but has to finish strong (at Wheaton, vs NCC, vs Augustana) to stay there.

* Augustana, our presumed Pool A right now, is not a Pool C lock by any stretch.  If the Vikings have a rough finish (at North Park, at IWU) they will end up on the bubble should they not win the CCIW tourney.

* I think Carthage is in a little better shape than I thought - if the Red Men win out (vs NCC, at Millikin, vs Wheaton), I believe they can make an end-of-the-bubble case around SOS and RRO.

* I think North Park is in trouble with a low WP and not enough SOS to offset that.  The 3-0 vs RRO is obviously great but I don't think enough.  It's safe to say NPU absolutely has to win out (at Carroll, vs Augustana, vs Millikin) to get to the bubble.

River Falls, Whitewater, and Eau Claire went a combined 5-1 since the rankings were released, with the only loss being by Whitewater at the hands of River Falls.  Said differently, none of these teams lost ground to CCIW opponents as we jockey for the pecking order in which Pool C criteria will be assessed.

This week, Eau Claire hosts River Falls and then travels to Whitewater.  Then there is the WIAC tournament.  It is possible the BluGolds will pick up 2 or 3 losses between now and end of year, and if that happened, it could push whichever CCIW team has better criteria that much higher up the consideration list.  I don't see River Falls or Whitewater falling below the CCIW masses in the final rankings, and since the next-best WIAC team is Oshkosh (7-5 / 14-9, though with a strong .586 SOS), I don't see anyone else from Cheddarland jumping the CCIW teams that have a realistic Pool C shot.

There aren't a lot of unranked teams with great resumes when you get that far down the list.  St. Norbert is probably the best of the lot and could factor in if they don't secure the MWC Pool A bid.  IIT and Ripon have okay records but terrible SOS nums.

[WUPHF]

Wash U is down 9 at halftime, at home, to Rochester - http://bearsports-livestats.wustl.edu/basketball/xlive.htm.  A comeback win would clinch the UAA for the Bears.  A loss and things get a bit dicey for Wash U vs Rochester in terms of Pool A.

Just have to beat NYU, Brandeis and Chicago.  Loss to the former and Washington probably goes Pool C. Loss to Chicago and Pool A comes down to coin toss.

[AndOne]

North Central 84
Elmhurst       60

Mix a measure of desired revenge for EC's 1st round conference win. add a splash of senior night excitement, and top things off with a barrage of three point bombs, and you have the ingredients for a NCC Cardinal win that left the visiting EC Bluejays feeling blue indeed.

* Lone NCC senior Jagger Anderson set the tone for the night with an inspired 16 point performance, including 2 threes. He also set the table, serving up 9 assists vs a single TO. Jagger was unable to play in EC's 1/21 win.

* Alex Sorenson was game high scorer with 26 points (4 of 6 threes), and just missed a double-double with 9 rebounds.

* Erwin Henry had a very strong outing combining strong inside drives with 3 of 5 from downtown for 18 points. E also just missed a double-double as he joined Sorenson in pulling down 9 boards.

* Aiden Chang finished with 15 points and a 4:1 A/TO ratio.

* Nick Chambers -- 10 minutes, 8 rebounds.

* The Cardinals enjoyed a 47-32 advantage on the glass, and outscored the visitors in the paint by a 30-18 margin.

* EC was led by senior Caleb Mowry with 13. Derek Dotlich had 11, and Ryan Patton added 10.

PLAY OF THE NIGHT

At the 3:17,30 mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhBNqMJ7FRg

[Titan Q]

For fun I put together a Pool C list through games of Saturday, Feb. 11.  A few notes...

* All data is from KnightSlappy's (Matt Snyder) tremendous work - http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

* I did this quickly and did not do any checking of which teams are currently Pool A candidates vs C...I just used Matt's designations.  Please let me know if I am missing teams that are currently Pool C candidates, or including teams that should be in Pool A right now. 

* I ignored Matthew's RPI and ranked the teams in my typical "subjective" fashion, balancing the 3 data points as best as possible.

Top Pool C candidates through 2/11 play
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC), .870/.610/8-2
2. UW-Whitewater (CE/WIAC), .857/.585/7-2
3. Amherst (NE/NESCAC), .739/.596/6-4
4. Rochester (E/UAA), .905/.522/2-1
5. Whitworth (W/NWC), .870/.535/1-2
6. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC), .792/.560/5-3
7. Salisbury (MA/CAC), .826/.537/3-3

Safely in through 2/11 play
8. UW-Eau Claire (CE/WIAC), .727/.557/3-1
9. John Carroll (GL/OAC), .727/.572/2-5
10. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW), .727/.557/3-4
11. St. Thomas (W/MIAA), .773/.533/2-1
12. Hardin-Simmons (S/ASC), .727/.554/2-1
13. Scranton (MA/LAND), .739/.526/3-2

The Bubble through 2/11 play
14. Williams (NE/NESCAC), .696/.580/5-4
15. Mount St. Joseph (GL/HCAC), .818/.514/2-0
16. MIT (NE/NEWMAC), .783/.535/0-3

Bottom 5 spots always reserved for major upsets, sending presumed Pool As to Cs above (these 5 teams assumed out)
17. Mass-Dartmouth (NE/LEC), .696/.561/4-2
18. Catholic (MA/LAND), .696/.557/2-5
19. Brockport (E/SUNYAC), .783/.512/3-2
20. Carthage (CE/CCIW), .667/.569/3-4
21. Wooster (GL/NCAC), .696/.544/3-5


Just a quick exercise to get some context on where things are right now.  Note, teams can and will move up and down this list (and in and out) in the final weeks of the season.  This is just a snapshot as of today.

[Titan Q]

Wash U is down 9 at halftime, at home, to Rochester - http://bearsports-livestats.wustl.edu/basketball/xlive.htm.  A comeback win would clinch the UAA for the Bears.  A loss and things get a bit dicey for Wash U vs Rochester in terms of Pool A.

Just have to beat NYU, Brandeis and Chicago.  Loss to the former and Washington probably goes Pool C. Loss to Chicago and Pool A comes down to coin toss.

Thinking more about it, the Wash U/Rochester thing is not that big a deal in terms of CCIW Pool C.  Just a matter of flipping Pool A/Pool C lock position.  If Wash U is a Pool C candidate the Bears will get picked in that top 6 group (where I currently I have Rochester).

[joehakes]

Kiko,

IIT is in the third year of provisional membership so the SOS numbers are irrelevant.  The Scarlet Hawks won't be eligible for NCAA tournament play until 2018-19 at the earliest.  IIT games are countable for opponents. Being provisional and independent makes scheduling a strong schedule pretty difficult.