MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I was the first voter to put IWU on my ballot this year and I'm still, I think, personally responsible for the majority of points they've garnered this year.  I like the team.  I think they're very good and clearly in the Top 25.

I have some questions still about their defense - IWU seems more prone to try and outscore opponents than create a separation by stopping the other team.  That's a gross generalization, but I don't think it's untrue.  I'd point to something like beating a pretty down BSC team by 7 the night after a loss - I know it was the holidays and on the road and all that, but that's a night when you expect a wider margin of victory from a Top 25 team.  A number of the close conference games (wins and losses) were similarly troubling.

Right now I've got Augie about 7 spots ahead of IWU on my poll.  I would definitely say, though, the two teams are trending in opposite directions right now.  IWU's recent past looks better than earlier in the year and Augie's last couple weeks are pretty weak, to say the least.  We just need a little more time to sort it all out.

[AndOne]

Massey has 12-4 North Central, winners of 8 straight, at #23, and Matt Snyder lists them at #18 in his efficiency ratings.
Yet they get 1 measly vote in the D3Hoops poll.
Are some of the voters not doing their homework? Just asking. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Massey has 12-4 North Central, winners of 8 straight, at #23, and Matt Snyder lists them at #18 in his efficiency ratings.
Yet they get 1 measly vote in the D3Hoops poll.
Are some of the voters not doing their homework? Just asking.

I think it takes a while for perceptions to change.  They sure didn't start off the year very well.

[Gregory Sager]

Gordon, I didn't answer the question for the exact same reason that D-Mac keeps citing: Those two teams don't exist in a vacuum. If I were to pick two slots at random and assign them to Augie and IWU, I can guarantee that D-Mac would be on my case fifteen minutes later with something like this:

I have Augustana now 10th. Feels high. I would want them lower to be sure, but they are there because I think they are better than the other 15 teams I ranked. That doesn't mean in a normal year they would be 10th, but they are there because I need to put someone tenth. The last two weeks I held on to them at 2 because, again, everyone was losing around them as well and I didn't see a place where I could put them where I felt there were other teams better. I did weigh in their win over WashU last week when I moved WashU up. I rather have Augie maybe 15, but...

There were nearly 50 teams I was considering this week (and last).

... and I wouldn't blame him one bit. IOW, in order to do justice to your question I'd have to construct an entire Top 25 ballot ... and I'm not participating in the posters poll this year. If I were, I'd be happy to show you my ballot.

I'm not being evasive, nor am I just being a brick-thrower here. I understand the difficulty of trying to slot 25 teams in ranked order, especially in a parity-heavy environment in which there no longer appears to be that small and discrete tier of teams that are clearly Salem-worthy where others aren't, that tier that everybody seemed to universally recognize each season in the not-too-distant past. And I appreciate the effort that the pollsters put into their work. I simply picked up on Bob's point about the tremendous gap between Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan in the January 14 poll in light of their performance to date (including the head-to-head rout) and the telling fact that one was #2 in the preseason poll and the other wasn't on even one single preseason ballot. Yeah, Bob's motivated in this regard because he's an IWU fan, but he's also a former d3hoops.com poll voter who has an insider's knowledge of the poll's mechanics. Bottom line, he made a good point that I really haven't seen anyone refute yet, D-Mac's protest that it's an "assumption" to the contrary. And heaven knows that I'm certainly not carrying any water for Illinois Wesleyan for partisan purposes.

I've seen Augustana games and I feel they are better than IWU right now in the way they play outside of the head-to-head.

Whoa. I definitely disagree with you on that, and I think that even the Augie fans who saw their team struggle with Millikin and (especially) with Carroll in the Carver Center over the past week would disagree with you, too.

Does anyone really know if the other 24 voters (maybe 23, Ryan weighed in) are thinking the same or differently?

Well, we definitely know that Ryan disagrees with you:

Right now I've got Augie about 7 spots ahead of IWU on my poll.  I would definitely say, though, the two teams are trending in opposite directions right now.  IWU's recent past looks better than earlier in the year and Augie's last couple weeks are pretty weak, to say the least.

I think that, between the two of you, Ryan's the one who has the right read on the relative current status of Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan.

[WUPHF]

There is no discussion. If anyone thinks that Connor Raridon isn't, minimally, one of the best players in the CCIW then I'm sorry, but they don't know a basketball from their rear end.

I should probably add a tag line to every comment I make in the CCIW reminding people to take my comments with a grain of salt.  I am just talking out loud here so please no one take offense...

I am sure every team in the CCIW and many beyond would be happy to have Connor Raridon.  The five best players in the league (that was the number in my head) could play a major role (if not starting role) on any other team in the league.

I'll mind my own business on this one...

[Gregory Sager]

You can't really ask voters to not include the preseason poll as part of that first ballot, which is about four to five games into the season. But I agree that by the time the new year rolls around, at the very least, it's time to let last season go.

The problem is that you (well, Gordon now) lack a mechanism for ensuring that voters "let last season go" by the turn of the calendar. First, you can't control the process of how the voters put their ballots together -- nor should you, really. Second, any artificial attempt to block a connection between preseason and mid-season by, say, prohibiting voters from slotting more than ten teams within three spots of their preseason positions in a January poll would be ludicrous and headache-inducing.

In other words, if you endorse the use of the preseason poll in constructing that first in-season ballot -- and I certainly agree with you that it's very hard in most cases to get a read on anything and anybody in the first two weeks of the season, which is the other reason why I've always been dismissive of that first in-season poll -- then you've opened Pandora's box. How in the world could you possibly prevent mid-January anchoring bias when you have no means as the poll supervisor to break the chain between preseason poll and mid-season poll?

Not having regular-season polls for six weeks is no better than not having a preseason poll. We don't want someone referring to Claremont-Mudd-Scripps as No. 15 when they are 3-7 on Dec. 31. It's grating enough to see that for two weeks.

Fair enough. I do see the public-relations reasoning, and I'm not dismissive of it. But it looks to me as though you're trading obviously aberrant poll positioning for more subtly aberrant poll positioning.

[gordonmann]

Greg:

Okay. I think we largely agree.

I just wanted to make it clear for other observers that criticizing voters or "the poll" (as if it were an independent sentient being) is easy and putting together a ballot is hard. As you know from doing the posters poll, you have to make decisions about where to slot teams and eventually you end up with paradoxes like the Wash U-IWU-Augie triangle that can't be resolved by statistical means. Or you just say the whole thing is a waste of time and go with the numerical indices.

I also think it's likely that the preseason vote has a carryover effect, even this late in the season, for the large gap between Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan. I hope that everyone blows up their ballot at least once a year and starts over and that voters regularly check their assumptions against other pieces of information. I can't guarantee that everyone does that though and there's undoubtedly some stickiness to where teams are slotted during the season.

[Gregory Sager]

I hope that everyone blows up their ballot at least once a year

This.

and starts over and that voters regularly check their assumptions against other pieces of information.

And this.

I can't guarantee that everyone does that though and there's undoubtedly some stickiness to where teams are slotted during the season.

Yes. Thanks for your candor, as always, Gordon.

[Titan Q]

While my blog will be out later, I have IWU 25 and nervous and admittedly low. I have liked them since early in the year, but there are items I just can't grasp if they are as good as they seem or not. I wanted them higher, but I need to keep them below Emory (16) and I didn't like them above the others as of right now. Doesn't mean I'm right; doesn't mean I am wrong.

Just curious why you need to keep IWU below Emory?

[WUPHF]

The Wash U-IWU-Augie triangle may officially taken its place in the Central Division lore in the same way the pod of death and others things that escape me at the moment.  Imagine if these three were to end up in the same pod again... #couldhappen

I'll weigh in on Emory over IWU...

I do think Emory would be 14-0 if they had not temporarily lost the services of their starting point guard...even if the non-conference schedule was a little weak, but they have some good wins.

As far a the head to head, Emory played that game against IWU without their future all-American.

I was a little down on Emory in the preseason, but I have to take back what I said.  Though the Around the Region article barely mentioned the freshmen, this Eagles squad is so much better because of them and I am referring to more than one guy.  My novice opinion: they would not be in the hunt for the UAA without them.

[Titan Q]

Where would you slot the two teams? And how would you resolve the Wash U-IWU-Augustana triangle?

I think anyone who is just taking 2017-18 into account would slot them basically right next to each other.  Whether they are #7/#8, or #14/#15, or #21/#22, they should be close.  There should not be a difference of 368 poll points.  Based on results this year, there just simply is not justification for the gap.

As far as the Triangle of Death, I don't think it necessarily has to resolved.  You just look at each team's resume and do the best you can to rank each fairly...just like you do with the rest of the teams.

[iwumichigander]

I was the first voter to put IWU on my ballot this year and I'm still, I think, personally responsible for the majority of points they've garnered this year.  I like the team.  I think they're very good and clearly in the Top 25.

I have some questions still about their defense - IWU seems more prone to try and outscore opponents than create a separation by stopping the other team.  That's a gross generalization, but I don't think it's untrue.  I'd point to something like beating a pretty down BSC team by 7 the night after a loss - I know it was the holidays and on the road and all that, but that's a night when you expect a wider margin of victory from a Top 25 team.  A number of the close conference games (wins and losses) were similarly troubling.

Right now I've got Augie about 7 spots ahead of IWU on my poll.  I would definitely say, though, the two teams are trending in opposite directions right now.  IWU's recent past looks better than earlier in the year and Augie's last couple weeks are pretty weak, to say the least.  We just need a little more time to sort it all out.

Ryan- IWU rebounds and defends ---so we can get the ball and shoot it again

[Gregory Sager]

North Central 102
Finlandia 50

No word yet on whether this was a free-tacos-with-your-ticket-stub final score.

Poor Finlandia. Back in late October I turned on a Finlandia @ Wheaton soccer match for a little bit and saw that the score was Wheaton 9, Finlandia 0, and I said to myself, "Why did I even bother turning this on in the first place?" Tonight kinda felt like that, although I suppose that there are NCC fans that were lapping this up.

[Gregory Sager]

They've definitely got us all beat in the realm of symphonic music, though.

[duckfan41]

There is no discussion. If anyone thinks that Connor Raridon isn't, minimally, one of the best players in the CCIW then I'm sorry, but they don't know a basketball from their rear end.

I should probably add a tag line to every comment I make in the CCIW reminding people to take my comments with a grain of salt.  I am just talking out loud here so please no one take offense...

I am sure every team in the CCIW and many beyond would be happy to have Connor Raridon.  The five best players in the league (that was the number in my head) could play a major role (if not starting role) on any other team in the league.

I'll mind my own business on this one...

In fairness to you, you didn't say that Raridon shouldn't make All-CCIW at all, you just noted that there might be another player who deserves first team over him. I honestly find that to be an okay statement to make while still knowing how to tell a difference between an orange sphere that bounces and what they sit on all day. No doubt in my mind Raridon will be All-CCIW, but declaring him first team because he got a bit better at dribbling that orange bouncing sphere before the second round of conference matches even start is a little forward.

Moving on, how happy have you been with Jack Nolan's play this season? Breakout season from a guy who was overlooked by bigger schools because of his lack of size, but man can that kid play the game with the orange bouncing sphere!