MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[GoPerry]

North Central 102
Finlandia 50

No word yet on whether this was a free-tacos-with-your-ticket-stub final score.

Poor Finlandia. Back in late October I turned on a Finlandia @ Wheaton soccer match for a little bit and saw that the score was Wheaton 9, Finlandia 0, and I said to myself, "Why did I even bother turning this on in the first place?" Tonight kinda felt like that, although I suppose that there are NCC fans that were lapping this up?

I can assure you that nobody is "lapping this up."

You missed the joke, Mark.







These are pictures of a rather well-known nomadic people who live in northern Finland and who are world-renowned for their abilities as reindeer herders. They're now better known as the Sami people, but for centuries everybody referred to them as ... wait for it ... the Lapps.

I wonder if they'd rank IWU higher . . .

[kiko]

I wonder if they'd rank IWU higher . . .

Being from Scandinavia, I suspect they are partial to Team Augie.

OTOH, seeing North Park show up in ORV would provide us much fodder to fill in the time between games...

[1nceaCoach]

New to D3Hoops even though I've been a long time reader.

Augie seems to be trending downwards despite their national ranking...be interested to watch them move forward in the CCIW. Since I'm new and just figuring out how to navigate this, has anyone asked why Ben Widdes left Carroll for Eau Claire in the middle of the year? I saw that he is eligible at UWEC...seems like D3 is ahead of the immediate eligibility rules the NCAA is looking at in the D1 world.

I don't get to many D3 games live but haven been able to watch some online...North Central seems like they have put things together, 9 in a row...is it too early to talk who makes the NCAA Tournament out of the CCIW?

[Gregory Sager]

North Central 102
Finlandia 50

No word yet on whether this was a free-tacos-with-your-ticket-stub final score.

Poor Finlandia. Back in late October I turned on a Finlandia @ Wheaton soccer match for a little bit and saw that the score was Wheaton 9, Finlandia 0, and I said to myself, "Why did I even bother turning this on in the first place?" Tonight kinda felt like that, although I suppose that there are NCC fans that were lapping this up?

I can assure you that nobody is "lapping this up."

You missed the joke, Mark.







These are pictures of a rather well-known nomadic people who live in northern Finland and who are world-renowned for their abilities as reindeer herders. They're now better known as the Sami people, but for centuries everybody referred to them as ... wait for it ... the Lapps.

I wonder if they'd rank IWU higher . . .

No, but IWU would get credit every time a Lapp herdsman oversees a successful reindeer calving.

I wonder if they'd rank IWU higher . . .

Being from Scandinavia, I suspect they are partial to Team Augie.

OTOH, seeing North Park show up in ORV would provide us much fodder to fill in the time between games...

Pffft. Ranked or not ranked, Augie merely pays lip service to its Swedish heritage. To the best of my knowledge, no Swede has ever suited up for the Augustana men's basketball team. North Park has had three, one of whom owns a pair of national championship rings and is the long-time head coach of the Uppsala team in Sweden's premier league. Augie doesn't have Swedish athletes in general; NPU sports history is chock-full of them, including a couple of track and field athletes that have gone to nationals in the past few years, a ton of golfers, and more soccer players than I can count, including eight on this season's national runner-up team (not including the associate head coach). Plus, Augie doesn't even have authentic Swedish colors as its school colors; North Park does.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Bob asked the question about my vote of Emory over IWU... can't find it right now, but I don't have the time to look back through the pages, either.

It is a loaded question and at least he knows that. I like Emory of IWU because I feel Emory is playing better right now, not by much, just better and with their strong win over IWU, I went with Emory over IWU. Not by much. My 15-25 is basically a jumble where almost any order would suffice.

Yes, this opens up the "yeah, but, you have Augustana above IWU despite IWU beating Augustana easily." Yep. I know that. Debated that for a significant amount of time over the last few weeks. Just as I debated the Augustana beat Wash U who beat IWU who beat Augustana issue for several weeks. However, it isn't that cut and dry. I now have WashU ahead of Augustana (if I can find some time in this ridiculous week, I will blog my bracket). That game no longer is as big a factor to the overall resume.

I feel Augustana is better than IWU. I get, Greg, that Ryan disagrees with me. We don't agree on every single poll, position on the poll, etc. It makes for interesting conversations on Hoopsville and behind the scenes. It doesn't make him right or wrong. It doesn't make me right or wrong. He is one voter; I am one voter. I am not going to be convinced I need to change because you point out another voter disagrees with my thought on one comparison. All of us voters are disagreeing with one another. I think that is pretty obvious. Look at some of the teams on the ballot, like Lycoming, and then go look at my ballot. You are going to see very different points of view. I am not going to change my mind because one of them posts publicly, like myself, and has a different opinion.

I have never stated my ballots or my thoughts were the be-all and end-all. They are my point of view. I feel confident in how I produce my ballot because more times than not, my thoughts and reads bear out. Certainly not perfectly, my any stretch of the imagination. I am more than up front when I think or realize I am wrong and many love to try and point out when they think I am wrong as well. However, I don't see a lot of people acknowledge when either myself or the poll in general is right. I am certainly not looking for a pat on the back, but more times than not the poll bears itself out and if I found fault in how I was voting I would either recuse myself or completely change how I approach my work.

We are talking about a microcism (right word?) of the poll. Augustana and IWU. I know people get tired of the "vacuum" comment and I know some people get that voters aren't just looking at two teams when ranking 25 out of a pool of 50 or more. However, that is the case. Also, the points do tend to add up. I have Augustana 10 and IWU 25 - that is probably the extreme right now and I've admitted even I don't love it. That is a difference of 15 points. Multiply that by 25 and you have 375 points. It adds up quick. Just the difference between 25 and 24 across the poll adds up to 25 total points if everyone voted accordingly.

The pollsters clearly have Augustana and IWU in that range. Meaning both are on people's ballots and for a number of them they are far closer together - maybe even switched! 10 to 25 may seems like a long ways away in your eyes, but in my eyes, that is close together. I erased and rewrote my last two ballots dozens of times and most of that erasing came in the 8-25 range. I moved teams around constantly. Some jumped from lower spots; others fell significantly. Then I would erase and all of that changed again.

What I am trying to say is... while you see it is as a large gap, I see it as they are all relatively equal and trying to nail down the right order hasn't been perfect. I have moved teams up 7 or more spots often this season. I have dropped teams double-digit slots many teams this year. Both of those moves have happened far more often this year than in past years. A lot of teams are really equal, but hard to show that in a poll sometimes.

[voxelmhurst]

Elmhurst will play only their second home game since Dec 18th tonight vs Augustana. This marks the beginning of a three game home stretch where the Jays will host Augustana, North Central, and Illinois Wesleyan, all CCIW contenders.

EC has shown flashes of brilliance so far this year. It seems like this Elmhurst squad MUST establish a solid interior presence to compliment their perimeter shooting in order to win games. Their entire rotation, save for one or two players, can attack the basket and hit the outside shot. It seems that when Elmhurst struggles, they have a tendency to take too many quick outside shots and can easily get themselves into scoring droughts. This was pretty evident at the end of the Cartage game. EC's 3-point shooting% is currently 8th in the CCIW.

That said, in these next 3 games EC has nothing to lose and everything to gain as this young team continues to develop.

[Gregory Sager]

New to D3Hoops even though I've been a long time reader.

Welcome to the fray!

Augie seems to be trending downwards despite their national ranking...be interested to watch them move forward in the CCIW. Since I'm new and just figuring out how to navigate this, has anyone asked why Ben Widdes left Carroll for Eau Claire in the middle of the year? I saw that he is eligible at UWEC...seems like D3 is ahead of the immediate eligibility rules the NCAA is looking at in the D1 world.

Information is sparse out of Carroll, as d3hoops.com has only had one Carroll poster over the years and we haven't heard anything from him for a long time. (He was much more active when Carroll was a MWC member.) When I asked what had happened to Widdes, all I got was silence. I suspect that you'll get the same silence for your question as to why he transferred. (He's gotten into a couple of games now for UWEC and hasn't really made an impact.)

D3 has allowed immediate transfers for as long as I can remember, ... and I go back a very long time with D3.

I don't get to many D3 games live but haven been able to watch some online...North Central seems like they have put things together, 9 in a row...is it too early to talk who makes the NCAA Tournament out of the CCIW?

Yes.

Seriously, though, if you want to have a conversation that isn't 80-90% speculation, then talking about the tournament when we're still two games shy of the end of the first round-robin is not the best avenue. But if you want a conversation that's mostly guesswork, then, yeah, this is as good a topic as any.

[GoPerry]

Elmhurst will play only their second home game since Dec 18th tonight vs Augustana. This marks the beginning of a three game home stretch where the Jays will host Augustana, North Central, and Illinois Wesleyan, all CCIW contenders.

EC has shown flashes of brilliance so far this year. It seems like this Elmhurst squad MUST establish a solid interior presence to compliment their perimeter shooting in order to win games. Their entire rotation, save for one or two players, can attack the basket and hit the outside shot. It seems that when Elmhurst struggles, they have a tendency to take too many quick outside shots and can easily get themselves into scoring droughts. This was pretty evident at the end of the Cartage game. EC's 3-point shooting% is currently 8th in the CCIW.

That said, in these next 3 games EC has nothing to lose and everything to gain as this young team continues to develop.

I'll be very much an EC fan for the next 4 games.  Go 'Jays!

[Gregory Sager]

Bob asked the question about my vote of Emory over IWU... can't find it right now, but I don't have the time to look back through the pages, either.

It is a loaded question and at least he knows that. I like Emory of IWU because I feel Emory is playing better right now, not by much, just better and with their strong win over IWU, I went with Emory over IWU.

Emory is better than IWU because the Eagles beat the Titans by 16 in spite of the fact that Emory was without the services of its star freshman guard Romin Williams (16.3 ppg) for that game. It's the only game he's missed this season. When you beat an opponent that convincingly in spite of the fact that you're missing such a major weapon, it's pretty conclusive evidence of your superiority.

I feel Augustana is better than IWU. I get, Greg, that Ryan disagrees with me. We don't agree on every single poll, position on the poll, etc. It makes for interesting conversations on Hoopsville and behind the scenes. It doesn't make him right or wrong. It doesn't make me right or wrong. He is one voter; I am one voter. I am not going to be convinced I need to change because you point out another voter disagrees with my thought on one comparison. All of us voters are disagreeing with one another. I think that is pretty obvious. Look at some of the teams on the ballot, like Lycoming, and then go look at my ballot. You are going to see very different points of view. I am not going to change my mind because one of them posts publicly, like myself, and has a different opinion.

You're stating truisms here, Dave, that are not in dispute. Of course everybody has different opinions. But not all opinions stand up to scrutiny. And this one:

I've seen Augustana games and I feel they are better than IWU right now in the way they play outside of the head-to-head.

... doesn't. You speak of "right now". Well, Augustana is in a bad stall right now. The Greymen just played a three-game CCIW homestand, sandwiching two opponents that are a combined 0-9 against the rest of the league (Millikin and Carroll) around a game against a pretty good Wheaton squad. Augie beat Millikin by 17 by pulling away late, but even the Augie fans were complaining about how listless their team looked in that game. Augie then went on to lose to Wheaton, as we all know, and then proceeded to trail lowly Carroll, aside from an early 2-2 tie, for 31 minutes before finally catching up and moving ahead of the Pioneers with 8:57 to go, eventually prevailing by four. And, lest you think that highlighting only this three-game homestand constitutes selection bias on my part, let me add that the previous game before the homestand, Augie's first game of the new year, was the walloping that it suffered at the hands of IWU two weeks ago.

By comparison, since flattening Augie, IWU has beaten an underrated Elmhurst team by a dozen (albeit on the strength of a late surge at both ends of the floor in the final five and a half minutes) and beaten North Park on the road -- and, although the win over NPU was extremely narrow, it needs to be noted that NPU guard Colin Lake scored an out-of-his-mind 46 points, nine points above his previous career high and the eleventh-best scoring performance in D3 this season, and pretty much carried the Vikings on his 5'7 back. In other words, while IWU hasn't played great basketball since beating Augie, it's played better basketball than has Augie, contrary to your opinion.

We are talking about a microcism (right word?) of the poll. Augustana and IWU. I know people get tired of the "vacuum" comment and I know some people get that voters aren't just looking at two teams when ranking 25 out of a pool of 50 or more. However, that is the case.

Yes, and I acknowledged that here in my reply yesterday to Gordon.

Also, the points do tend to add up. I have Augustana 10 and IWU 25 - that is probably the extreme right now and I've admitted even I don't love it. That is a difference of 15 points. Multiply that by 25 and you have 375 points. It adds up quick. Just the difference between 25 and 24 across the poll adds up to 25 total points if everyone voted accordingly.

... and that 15-slot and 375-point gap is waaaaaay too big. Look, set aside the whole they-don't-exist-in-a-vacuum thing for a moment. Go back and track how Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan have appeared on your 2017-18 ballots, starting with your preseason ballot. Plot it out as a graph, if you'd like. What is the range of separation on a week-to-week basis between the two teams? How much closer were they in your last December poll than they were in your preseason ballot? How much closer did they get after IWU thumped Augie? How have they moved relative to each other on your two ballots for the polls released since then?

I'm not going to sift through all of your blog posts, but my guess is that you had Augie ranked somewhere in the top three and didn't have IWU ranked at all in the preseason. IWU is now obviously on your radar -- I'm mildly curious as to how long it took for the Titans to get on one of your ballots -- but Augie still hasn't fallen out of your top ten, so my guess is that, while you've knocked away some of the massive chunk of ballot points separating the two since your preseason ballot, the lion's share of it still remains.

However, I'm not going to accuse you of anchoring bias, because you've asserted that you think Augie is playing better basketball than IWU right now.

The pollsters clearly have Augustana and IWU in that range.

Yes, and even Gordon has admitted that anchoring bias has something to do with that large gap:

I also think it's likely that the preseason vote has a carryover effect, even this late in the season, for the large gap between Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan.

Moving on:

Meaning both are on people's ballots and for a number of them they are far closer together - maybe even switched!

That conclusion is not borne out by the evidence, Dave. Your 15-slot/375-point gap is virtually identical to the poll's 16-slot/368-point gap. But, because we don't know how your 24 peers voted, there's no way that you can draw a conclusion of a broad variation in how those 24 voters are slotting Augie and IWU. For all you and I know, they could all be as dead-on to the poll result in terms of how they separate the two teams as you are. And also, with a gap that large, it's highly unlikely that anyone in a poll of only 25 voters has Augie and IWU flipped. Perhaps there's one or two that do, but I doubt it. (Maybe Gordon can tell us if any of the voters put IWU ahead of Augie in the latest poll.)

10 to 25 may seems like a long ways away in your eyes, but in my eyes, that is close together.

They're not close together, Dave. They're 15 slots apart in a 25-slot poll, and that's not close at all. I suspect that you're conflating observation and mechanics here; that is to say, you're taking a look at the better teams from around D3, as are all of us national-D3 followers, and coming to the conventional-wisdom conclusion for this season, which is that there isn't a topmost tier of standout teams, just a very large and unwieldly pool of good teams. In your mind, then, that observation (with which I agree, BTW, as I'm sure that most national-D3 followers do) creates little difference between, say, UW-Whitewater and UW-Platteville (to use two good teams in the same league with identical records that haven't played each other yet) or between St. John's and Swarthmore. It's all just a big jumble and a pollster's nightmare (and, trust me, you and Ryan have my sympathies this season). Nevertheless, the mechanics of the poll require a rigid pecking order that creates real distance from teams the further apart they're slotted. And 15-slots/375-points is a massive gap, no two ways about it.

A lot of teams are really equal, but hard to show that in a poll sometimes.

Yes, and, as I said, I sympathize. But I'm just saying that a 15-slot/375-point gap is massive by definition, whether the two teams on either side of that gap deserve to have that much separation between them or not. Augustana and IWU clearly don't merit such a gap. And, whether you're guilty of it or not, some of the explanation for that undeserved separation is anchoring bias among the pollsters, and the "anchor" in that anchoring bias is the preseason poll. As Bob put it:

I think anyone who is just taking 2017-18 into account would slot them basically right next to each other.  Whether they are #7/#8, or #14/#15, or #21/#22, they should be close.  There should not be a difference of 368 poll points.  Based on results this year, there just simply is not justification for the gap.

There's just no defensible reason to have Augie and IWU so far apart on a ballot right now. It flies in the face of the only admissible evidence, which is results to date on the court.

[Titan Q]

Bob asked the question about my vote of Emory over IWU... can't find it right now, but I don't have the time to look back through the pages, either.

It is a loaded question and at least he knows that. I like Emory of IWU because I feel Emory is playing better right now, not by much, just better and with their strong win over IWU, I went with Emory over IWU. Not by much. My 15-25 is basically a jumble where almost any order would suffice.

Yes, this opens up the "yeah, but, you have Augustana above IWU despite IWU beating Augustana easily."

I guess it just seems like you are treating game results very selectively, Dave. I read your post about IWU/Emory as you had to keep Emory ahead of IWU since Emory beat IWU.  I am 100% good with that.  So, then, what about Wheaton?  Wheaton won at Augustana...and at Whitworth.  Where do you have Wheaton relative to Augustana and Whitworth?  I'm guessing you have Augustana and Whitworth ranked and that Wheaton is not on your ballot.  How many teams did you vote for that don't have a single win anywhere near as good as those 2 Wheaton has?  I will bet quite a few.

I believe there are opinions formed of certain teams that are based on preseason (October) expectations.  And then some game results are used to support the position, while other games are discounted completely because they don't support the position.  I think you will admit you kind of threw the IWU vs Augustana result out the window -- it was a conference game, and those are different, and we'll wait until the game in Rock Island to verify that Augie is indeed better. 

Regarding IWU and Augustana, on the season as a whole there is not much separation - two very even resumes.  But if you are looking at "right now" (like, lately), it's impossible to make the point you are that Augustana is playing better. Reading that just makes it seem pretty clear that you are anchored to what you saw in Salem last March, and what you thought about 2017-18 in October.  Augie lost big at IWU, then lost at home to Wheaton, and didn't play all that great against Millikin and Carroll at home.  How could they possibly be playing better than IWU right now? 

I give you a ton of credit for posting your ballot and talking so openly about your voting process.  I just disagree with your use of preseason expectations in mid-January.  And I still like having beers with you in Salem.

[Yogao]

Augie 54 Elmhurst 41 at the half. Augie 11/12 at the foul line, and 9/12 from downtown.  Elmhurst 6/11 from 3. They were 1/2 from the foul line. 

[Gregory Sager]

Carroll 68
North Park 49

Billy Kirby (12 and 7) was the only Viking who had a noteworthy game. Colin Lake came back to earth in a big way (2-15 FG, 8 pts). Charlie Soule came off the bench for the Pios and had a 26 and 8 night, while Nick Penny chipped in 13 for the hosts.

[GoPerry]

Carthage 81
Wheaton 90

Ricky Samuelson   27 pts, 11-16 FG, 5-7 3pt
Aston Francis       23 pts, 8-16 FG, 4-10 3pt, 10 rebs, 5 assts/6 to
Luke Peters      10 pts, 6 rebs, 13 assts/3 tos, 2 blks, 2 stls
Trevor Gunter      8 pts, 7 rebs
Kobe Eichelberger   9 pts, 4 rebs

Kienan Baltimore   31 pts, 4 rebs
Jordan Thomas      17 pts, 4 rebs
Brad Kruse      13 pts, 11 rebs, 5 stls

This was a very impressive bounce back victory for Wheaton, leading from start to finish with several terrific individual performances.  Samuelson was shooting lights out spotting up and on the break.  Luke Peters had an outstanding game with the double-double, 4 rebs short of the triple-double.  He also hit some important free throws down the stretch when the Redman tried to come back.  Francis also with a double-double in points and rebounding.   The Thunder also won the rebounding battle by 3.  Very few faults in the box score.

Baltimore, in his third game back basically kept Carthage in the game with 19 first half points.  Thomas asserted himself a little more in the 2nd. Brad Perry is a gigantic blockade in the middle but Gunter and Jay Spencer did a nice job keeping him from scoring too many easy baskets.

Wins in Rock Island and Kenosha vs the loss at the Hangar.  I think Coach Schauer would've taken that road trip result 10 days ago.  They still need to keep winning but are well situated in the standings with a slightly favorable schedule.  Plenty of challenges to come.

[iwu70]

IWU protects home floor, stays atop the CCIW.  (Get to 78, win the game)  -- IWU 78 Big Blue 62

The Brady Rose show tonight.

For IWU:
Rose 30
Knobloch (a strong outing) 13
Bonnett 11
O'Neill (a double double) 13 and 10 (one of his better games).

For MU:
Fisher 14
Henry 12
Beaty 12
Harrell 10

MU played IWU tough in the first half, leading by 2 at the break.  Titans got it rolling, Rose got loose, and there you go . . .

Hold home court, move on to Wisconsin for a tough road game on Saturday.  No letdown.  WC and Augie winning tonight too. 

IWU'70

[Titan Q]

IWU 78
Millikin 62

http://www.iwusports.com/boxscore.aspx?id=5214&path=mbball

* Brady Rose: 30 pts, 3 reb, 6 assists (11-15 FG, 6-10 3-point, 2-2 FT)
* Alex O'Neill: 13 pts, 10 reb
* Zach Knobloch: 13 pts
* Colin Bonnett: 11 pts, 2 reb, 4 assists

* Zach Fisher: 14 pts
* Elijah Henry: 12 pts, 8 reb
* Michael Beaty: 12 pts, 3 reb
* DaVante Harrell: 10 pts, 5 reb

The Big Blue have more pure talent than they've had in a long time.  They definitely have several dangerous weapons.

Brady Rose was fantastic tonight for the Titans.  He is just really smart on the floor and seems to have such command at all times.  As far as combo guard-types go, he has entered Korey Coon/Kent Raymond territory.

6-8 C Alex O'Neill is showing signs of coming on.  If the Titans can get him going they can do some big things.