MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Viking Mike]

I think the issue is Carthage BEAT IWU in Bloomington on Dec 2nd in the first conference game!
If IWU loses again on Sat in Kenosha, they would be 0-2 against the Red Men (not 1-1) and Augie would be 1-1.

This is the tiebreaker prior to looking at records against Carroll.

[lmitzel]

I think the issue is Carthage BEAT IWU in Bloomington on Dec 2nd in the first conference game!
If IWU loses again on Sat in Kenosha, they would be 0-2 against the Red Men (not 1-1) and Augie would be 1-1.

This is the tiebreaker prior to looking at records against Carroll.

Yeah, you're right. I looked at it wrong.

So adjusting for that...

As for that Augie/IWU potential tie at 12-4, both teams split with Wheaton, so IWU's regular season finale against NCC becomes paramount. If the Titans win that one, then both them and Augie would have sweeps over NCC and you go down to Carthage. If Wesleyan's other win is Carthage (meaning a loss to Millikin on Wednesday), then the Titans have a sweep of the Red Men (Augie split) and they get the tiebreaker split with the Red Men, as did Augie. If the Titans lose to Carthage but still tie at 12-4, both teams have splits and you go to Carroll... which the Titans would win due to their head to head sweep of the Pios (Augie split). A Carthage win over IWU means the Red Men have a sweep of the Titans while Augie split, so in a 12-4 tie in that scenario, Augie gets the tiebreaker. If the Titans beat both Millikin and CarrollCarthage but lose to NCC, then a 12-4 tie favors Augie due to their head to head sweep of the Cardinals.

So basically for the team in green, in the event of a 12-4 tie with Augie, one of their final two wins has to be NCC. If it's not, the tie goes to Augie.

So based on my understanding, if Carthage stands alone in fifth, the Titans have to beat both Carthage and NCC to win a 12-4 tiebreaker with Augustana. I've always interpreted tiebreakers #2 and #3 to be with those teams straight up, but if you take the tied teams together...

• IWU win over Carthage: The Titans would be 3-1 against the tied teams, Augie would be 2-2, so the Titans would get the tiebreaker.
• IWU loss to Carthage: Yeah, both teams would be 2-2 against the tie, so you'd go further down the list.

Elmhurst was swept by both, Millikin was swept by Augie and still has one more against IWU. If the Titans win that one, you go down to North Park, who if Augie beats them on the 17th, would end that tiebreaker and you go to conference road record. IWU is currently 5-1 on the road, Augie is 6-2. In this scenario, the Titans would have to beat Millikin to force this tiebreaker, plus lose to Carthage, which also puts them at 6-2 on the road. So we go to tiebreaker #5, record over the last 7 conference games (though the tiebreakers on the CCIW's site are from 2014, pre-Carroll rejoin, so I wonder if it has actually changed to 8). Augie would be 5-2 in the 7-game sample and 6-2 in the 8-game sample, IWU would be 4-3 in the 7-game sample and 5-3 in the 8-game sample, so Augie would win the tiebreaker in this scenario if you take tied teams together for the purpose of these tiebreakers.

So yeah, that game at Carthage is crucial for the Titans, and trying to sort through all of these tiebreakers with so many what-ifs makes my head hurt.

[blue_jays]

A couple junior guards having outstanding CCIW seasons.  Conference-only stats...

* Aston Francis: 30.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.1 apg, .450 FG, .414 3-point, .817 FT, 0.9 A:TO

* Brady Rose: 23.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, .524 FG, .478 3-point, .855 FT, 1.8 A:TO


I wonder how many players in CCIW history have averaged 30 ppg in conference play?  Has anyone ever done that?  I don't think I've seen it in my 28 years following the league.

Maybe the craziest stat for Francis is he already broke his own CCIW season record for three-pointers with 72. That's double the amount of second place on the list this year.

[lmitzel]

After scoring 36 in back to back games, Aston Francis is your latest CCIW Player of the Week, his fourth such honor this season.

[Gregory Sager]

Yeah, that was one POW award that had a giant "Duh!" attached to it.

[Mr. Ypsi]

New poll is up.  Augie jumps from 14 to 10; IWU drops from 17 to 23.  So we're right back to a HUGE gap between two teams that seem quite comparable.  I'm shocked (but not really surprised) that neither Wheaton nor NCC received a single point in the poll.  True, they each have six losses, but UWSP has SEVEN and is 18th.  I'd put serious money on either of them to beat at least 5-6 of the teams IN the top 25, much less some of the ORV's!

[iwu70]

These polls don't really mean much at this point. . . just gotta take care of business and win out.  Titans have three very tough games to go.  Should would help to get to 20 wins.  Augie has an easier path, for sure.  Then, hopefully, for 2-3 teams in the CCIW, a bid to the March fun.  I agree Ypsi, WC and NCC are up there, should be receiving some support for top 25 placement, IMHO.  Esp. WC given their wins.  Anyway, time will tell -- hopefully CCIW gets 3 teams in the dance, we just don't know which ones yet.  Regional rankings far more important . . . on when you come to the table for consideration/comparison.  It's been a great season so far . . .and still more very important games to go.

'70

[Gregory Sager]

New poll is up.  Augie jumps from 14 to 10; IWU drops from 17 to 23.  So we're right back to a HUGE gap between two teams that seem quite comparable.  I'm shocked (but not really surprised) that neither Wheaton nor NCC received a single point in the poll.  True, they each have six losses, but UWSP has SEVEN and is 18th.  I'd put serious money on either of them to beat at least 5-6 of the teams IN the top 25, much less some of the ORV's!

Wheaton is unquestionably a Top 25 team at this point in terms of quality. North Central isn't, but the good news for the Cardinals is that they will have the chance to prove their worth over the next eight days as they run a gauntlet with their reconstituted lineup.

One issue that NCC has is that Erwin Henry's injury came so late in the season. Last season, Connor Raridon got hurt so early that the Cards had plenty of time to adjust to his absence and forge a new identity, complete with new roles and a new spread of rotation minutes. NCC doesn't have that luxury this season, although I suspect that the team's bye this past weekend was very well-timed in terms of comfort level, because Todd Raridon didn't have to fit game prep into his post-Wednesday practice itinerary.

[kiko]

New poll is up.  Augie jumps from 14 to 10; IWU drops from 17 to 23.  So we're right back to a HUGE gap between two teams that seem quite comparable.  I'm shocked (but not really surprised) that neither Wheaton nor NCC received a single point in the poll.  True, they each have six losses, but UWSP has SEVEN and is 18th.  I'd put serious money on either of them to beat at least 5-6 of the teams IN the top 25, much less some of the ORV's!

Wheaton is unquestionably a Top 25 team at this point in terms of quality. North Central isn't, but the good news for the Cardinals is that they will have the chance to prove their worth over the next eight days as they run a gauntlet with their reconstituted lineup.

One issue that NCC has is that Erwin Henry's injury came so late in the season. Last season, Connor Raridon got hurt so early that the Cards had plenty of time to adjust to his absence and forge a new identity, complete with new roles and a new spread of rotation minutes. NCC doesn't have that luxury this season, although I suspect that the team's bye this past weekend was very well-timed in terms of comfort level, because Todd Raridon didn't have to fit game prep into his post-Wednesday practice itinerary.

You should change your password; it looks like Andone may have pilfered it... 

[GoPerry]

New poll is up.  Augie jumps from 14 to 10; IWU drops from 17 to 23.  So we're right back to a HUGE gap between two teams that seem quite comparable.  I'm shocked (but not really surprised) that neither Wheaton nor NCC received a single point in the poll.  True, they each have six losses, but UWSP has SEVEN and is 18th.  I'd put serious money on either of them to beat at least 5-6 of the teams IN the top 25, much less some of the ORV's!

Wheaton is unquestionably a Top 25 team at this point in terms of quality. North Central isn't, but the good news for the Cardinals is that they will have the chance to prove their worth over the next eight days as they run a gauntlet with their reconstituted lineup.

Right now, I'm just hoping Wheaton can get regionally ranked and stay there to at least have a chance at a Pool C.  NCC and River Falls lost so they have a chance to slip in maybe.  With 1/2 the spots taken by WIAC teams, I don't think the Thunder can afford to take another loss - maybe in the conf tourney, and still be in the RR.  Tough region.

[Gregory Sager]

New poll is up.  Augie jumps from 14 to 10; IWU drops from 17 to 23.  So we're right back to a HUGE gap between two teams that seem quite comparable.  I'm shocked (but not really surprised) that neither Wheaton nor NCC received a single point in the poll.  True, they each have six losses, but UWSP has SEVEN and is 18th.  I'd put serious money on either of them to beat at least 5-6 of the teams IN the top 25, much less some of the ORV's!

Wheaton is unquestionably a Top 25 team at this point in terms of quality. North Central isn't, but the good news for the Cardinals is that they will have the chance to prove their worth over the next eight days as they run a gauntlet with their reconstituted lineup.

One issue that NCC has is that Erwin Henry's injury came so late in the season. Last season, Connor Raridon got hurt so early that the Cards had plenty of time to adjust to his absence and forge a new identity, complete with new roles and a new spread of rotation minutes. NCC doesn't have that luxury this season, although I suspect that the team's bye this past weekend was very well-timed in terms of comfort level, because Todd Raridon didn't have to fit game prep into his post-Wednesday practice itinerary.

You should change your password; it looks like Andone may have pilfered it... 

I'm just objectively assessing the Cards as things currently stand, including the timing of the injury to Henry, with regard to Chuck's discussion of Top 25 worthiness for WC and NCC. Where Mark and I part company is that, once the ball is tossed up in the air by the gentleman wearing stripes, I believe that injury excuses go out the window. You either win or you lose with the players you have on hand.

Right now, I'm just hoping Wheaton can get regionally ranked and stay there to at least have a chance at a Pool C.  NCC and River Falls lost so they have a chance to slip in maybe.  With 1/2 the spots taken by WIAC teams, I don't think the Thunder can afford to take another loss - maybe in the conf tourney, and still be in the RR.  Tough region.

Over in the Pool C room, fantastic50 (a math prof at Wooster who does a great job with numbers-crunching and making Pool C projections) is down on the CCIW's Pool C odds at the moment. He has Augie with a 99% chance of getting a Pool C berth should the Greymen need one, but IWU is only a 46% bet at the moment, and Wheaton, too, is on the wrong side of the bubble at 37%. He has the CCIW's current likelihood of D3 tourney representation at 2.3 teams.

[badgerwarhawk]

Over in the Pool C room, fantastic50 (a math prof at Wooster who does a great job with numbers-crunching and making Pool C projections) is down on the CCIW's Pool C odds at the moment. He has Augie with a 99% chance of getting a Pool C berth should the Greymen need one, but IWU is only a 46% bet at the moment, and Wheaton, too, is on the wrong side of the bubble at 37%. He has the CCIW's current likelihood of D3 tourney representation at 2.3 teams.

I'd hate to be the CCIW team that has to play three on five.  That hardly seems fair and I doubt it will end well for them. 

[Gregory Sager]

That's actually one and a half on five. One CCIW team will have to field only one full player, plus another player who has to hop around on one foot.

[Yogao]

That's actually one and a half on five. One CCIW team will have to field only one full player, plus another player who has to hop around on one foot.

Wofford might be able to hop around on one foot. Hoping he can do more than that come the fall!

[lmitzel]

That's actually one and a half on five. One CCIW team will have to field only one full player, plus another player who has to hop around on one foot.

So Aston Francis on one foot plus a post guy (Alex Sorenson? Micah Martin? Alex O'Neill? Brad Perry/Brad Kruse/Sean Johnson? Take your pick)? One-footed Francis can probably still drain 28 footers at a ridiculous clip.