MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[BobbyO]

A better game tonight. Still need more Crowd noise.  Wheaton made a nice run near the end but Augie's defense came up big and they finished strong.  Now keep the intensity for tomorrow and get the AQ and hopefully host NCAA First Round.

[GoPerry]

Augustana 72, Wheaton 64

Aston Francis         26 pts (8-24 FG, 4-13 3FG, 39 minutes)
Kobe Eichelberger      10 pts , 9 rebs

Brett Benning         20 pts, 12 rebs
Chrishawn Orange      12 pts, 4 rebs
Nolan Ebel         10 pts, 4 rebs

It was a good effort and proud of the guys for the comeback from 14 down to tie it.  A well coached Augustana team was just too solid all around – doing just enough to pull out the win vs a Wheaton squad that lost its offense the wrong week of the season. 

Brett Benning was the difference maker.  He had a really terrific game and caused all sorts of problems for Jay Spencer and Spencer Peterson.

I'm not sure why Wheaton continued to high ball screen for Francis because it allowed the Vikes to double team him very easily way out near the center circle.  This is the third game in a row where the defense has doubled Francis and forced the ball from his hands.  It was if the Thunder were totally surprised by it and had no scheme against it. 

Overall, it was a very successful and entertaining season.  Wheaton had some really great wins and had stretches of some really good play. Realistically however, in the end, this is about what I and probably others expected for this campaign.  3 losses to close it out doesn't feel good but it's a long way from the last 3 really dry seasons.  Playing games that mattered late in February felt good again.

Good luck to Augie and either NCC or IWU in the tourney.  Hopefully all 3.

[Augie6]

Augie's defense is the reason they won this game, particularly in the 2nd half.  Augie looked like they were going to pull away after stretching a two point lead at the half, to 14 at the 10 minute mark, but then they scored 4 points over the next seven minutes and Wheaton chipped away to get it tied with a little under three minutes left.  From that point, Augie only gave up 2 more points and went 7-7 on FT's in the last two minutes to secure the win.  After Wheaton shot 54.5% in the first half (44.4% from 3), Augie held Wheaton to a FG% of 30% in the second half (13% from 3) and Aston Francis to a 4-18 performance.  I give Wheaton a lot of credit for clawing their way back in this game. It's a shame this is probably the end of their season. 

Should be a great game tomorrow night against NCC.   Hard to beat a team 3 times in a season and NCC has been playing well.  Hopefully, the home court advantage will give Augie the edge.

[Gregory Sager]

Augie's defense is the reason they won this game, particularly in the 2nd half.  Augie looked like they were going to pull away after stretching a two point lead at the half, to 14 at the 10 minute mark, but then they scored 4 points over the next seven minutes and Wheaton chipped away to get it tied with a little under three minutes left.  From that point, Augie only gave up 2 more points and went 7-7 on FT's in the last two minutes to secure the win.  After Wheaton shot 54.5% in the first half (44.4% from 3), Augie held Wheaton to a FG% of 30% in the second half (13% from 3) and Aston Francis to a 4-18 performance.  I give Wheaton a lot of credit for clawing their way back in this game. It's a shame this is probably the end of their season. 

Should be a great game tomorrow night against NCC.   Hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season and NCC has been playing well.  Hopefully, the home court advantage will give Augie the edge.

Fixed it for you. The world of college basketball is chock-full of teams that are easy to beat three times in one season. If you're going to use that cliché and have it make any sense, you have to specify that good teams are the ones that are hard to beat three times out of three.

[augiefan]

Another nail bitter for Augie. It should put them in the NCAA tourney win or lose tomorrow night. However, I doubt they can go deep in the tourney without Micah Martin.

What is Martin's health status? Is there any chance he will be available come tourney time? I was never clear what his injury is.

[Augie6]

Another nail bitter for Augie. It should put them in the NCAA tourney win or lose tomorrow night. However, I doubt they can go deep in the tourney without Micah Martin.

What is Martin's health status? Is there any chance he will be available come tourney time? I was never clear what his injury is.

Torn meniscus.  It was in the QC Times and the link was posted to the board several days ago. 

[Greek Tragedy]

Augie's defense is the reason they won this game, particularly in the 2nd half.  Augie looked like they were going to pull away after stretching a two point lead at the half, to 14 at the 10 minute mark, but then they scored 4 points over the next seven minutes and Wheaton chipped away to get it tied with a little under three minutes left.  From that point, Augie only gave up 2 more points and went 7-7 on FT's in the last two minutes to secure the win.  After Wheaton shot 54.5% in the first half (44.4% from 3), Augie held Wheaton to a FG% of 30% in the second half (13% from 3) and Aston Francis to a 4-18 performance.  I give Wheaton a lot of credit for clawing their way back in this game. It's a shame this is probably the end of their season. 

Should be a great game tomorrow night against NCC.   Hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season and NCC has been playing well.  Hopefully, the home court advantage will give Augie the edge.

Fixed it for you. The world of college basketball is chock-full of teams that are easy to beat three times in one season. If you're going to use that cliché and have it make any sense, you have to specify that good teams are the ones that are hard to beat three times out of three.

One of Greg's favorite clichés. I was waiting for his response on this!     

[GoPerry]

Another nail bitter for Augie. It should put them in the NCAA tourney win or lose tomorrow night. However, I doubt they can go deep in the tourney without Micah Martin.

What is Martin's health status? Is there any chance he will be available come tourney time? I was never clear what his injury is.

Funny!  I remember thinking the same thing 12 months ago about a 19-8 Vikings team . . . right before they went 5-1 in March.

[Augie6]

Augie's defense is the reason they won this game, particularly in the 2nd half.  Augie looked like they were going to pull away after stretching a two point lead at the half, to 14 at the 10 minute mark, but then they scored 4 points over the next seven minutes and Wheaton chipped away to get it tied with a little under three minutes left.  From that point, Augie only gave up 2 more points and went 7-7 on FT's in the last two minutes to secure the win.  After Wheaton shot 54.5% in the first half (44.4% from 3), Augie held Wheaton to a FG% of 30% in the second half (13% from 3) and Aston Francis to a 4-18 performance.  I give Wheaton a lot of credit for clawing their way back in this game. It's a shame this is probably the end of their season. 

Should be a great game tomorrow night against NCC.   Hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season and NCC has been playing well.  Hopefully, the home court advantage will give Augie the edge.

Fixed it for you. The world of college basketball is chock-full of teams that are easy to beat three times in one season. If you're going to use that cliché and have it make any sense, you have to specify that good teams are the ones that are hard to beat three times out of three.

One of Greg's favorite clichés. I was waiting for his response on this!     

Have to admit, it is a cliché and a poorly written one, at that.     Thanks for the correction, GS.

[Titan Q]

My look at Pool C through Saturday - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1859443#msg1859443

[AndOne]

It remains to be seen whether the CCIW will be a 1, 2, or 3 bid team this year.
However, the following seems to be true about the conference chances:

* Of course, the winner of Saturday's Augie/NCC game gets the AQ.
* Should Augie lose, they're still in.
* Should NCC lose, chances still appear decent that they get in.
* If NCC gets in, IWU may too. Saturdays other conferences tournament/championship games will affect NCC's and IWU's chances.
* If NCC does not get in, neither will IWU. Tuesday NCC stepped on IWU, and last night they stepped over them as far as regional rankings.
So if its a no go for NCC, there is no way IWU goes either. Looks like Green fans will have to be rooting for the Red team. 

[AndOne]

I'm impressed by the way that the Cards have stepped up in the absence of Erwin Henry. In that kind of a situation you have to expect everybody to shoulder a little bit more of the burden rather than asking your stars to do all of the extra work, and NCC did that tonight. Cappelletti had a double-double and was quietly terrific. Chang was really tough at both ends of the floor, and Todd Raridon got some nice minutes out of Tommy Koth as well.

As Greg indicates, in E's absence other players have definitely stepped up--on both ends of the floor.
Just about every player in the original rotation has upped his play, both offensively and defensively, and Tommy Koth has filled the void with some inspired play along with some big baskets in key moments of the last 3 games in which he has averaged 7.0 PPG.

Credit for the recent Cardinal surge must also go to the NCC coaching staff which has done a masterful job mixing and matching, and shuffling the lineup according to the ebb and flow of changing game situations. They've been able to make adjustments on the fly, and the players have executed.

[AndOne]

Brady Rose was totally MIA tonight. I can't remember the last time I saw a CCIW superstar have such an abjectly awful night under the big lights. He didn't even score his second field goal of the night until there were only 65 seconds left in the game.

Brady Rose.  Woof.

More like Poof...he disappeared.

The old adage in sports is that you win with defense. In the last few games the Cardinal defense has been stifling at times. Led principally by Aiden Chang, Brady Rose has particularly been the victim of that defense. In Tuesday's and last night's games Rose went a combined 10 for 39 (25.6%). This includes 3 for 14 (21.4%) on threes.
The defense doesn't rest. 

[Titan Q]

* If NCC does not get in, neither will IWU. Tuesday NCC stepped on IWU, and last night they stepped over them as far as regional rankings.
So if its a no go for NCC, there is no way IWU goes either. Looks like Green fans will have to be rooting for the Red team. 

This could be true, but there is a good chance it's not.  If NCC loses tonight, the numbers are something like:

* Illinois Wesleyan: .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6
* North Central: .692 (18-8)/.555/4-5

That is a significant difference in winning percentage based on how this process works.  In the national Pool C process, IWU would probably have the better Pool C chances because winning percentage has always proven to be the most important number.

Through last night, Drew (fantastic50) has IWU ahead of NCC...and then an NCC loss tonight would create even more separation.  In my projection I have NCC ahead of IWU as we speak, which I believe makes the most sense.  But the question is, what happens if NCC loses and their WP falls from .720 to .692?  NCC would basically have numbers similar to UW-River Falls, who Drew and I agree is currently behind IWU.

In this process, they don't look at timing of losses (IWU finishing with 2 losses) - they just look at the overall resume.  They do look at head-to-head, but mostly as a tie-breaker.  NCC going 2-1 vs IWU is certainly a big factor, but the question is whether or not there is a tie to break -- again, in this process IWU's winning percentage advantage is significant.

All we do know for sure is that the order of IWU vs NCC in the final Central ranking is huge...because the higher ranked team gets to the table first.  The higher ranked team probably has a 50% chance of getting in...the lower more like 25%.  It's definitely not impossible for both to get in (if there are not many upsets today and tomorrow).

The Central committee will first determine that IWU/NCC order, and then the national committee will review and can modify based on how they see the big picture.

As of 10pm EST Friday night...

Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.540, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.567, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 22% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 18% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (A) Augustana (21-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.570, 7-3 vRRO, CE#3) 63% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.574 / 7-4
100% (A) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.516, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 81% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.527 / 4-1
100% (C#3) UW-Platteville (20-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.577, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-3 vRRO
100% (A) Wittenberg (24-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.527, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 76% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.531 / 5-2
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.589, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO
100% (A) Eastern Connecticut (23-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.533, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 75% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.538 / 4-2
100% (C#5) Wooster (21-6, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-3 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A, proj. 4-3 vRRO
100% (C#6) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.563, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 71% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A, proj. 7-4 vRRO
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.540, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 73% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.545 / 7-3
100% (C#8) Johns Hopkins (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.533, 5-3 vRRO, MA#4) 47% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.544 / 5-4
100% (A) Swarthmore (22-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 53% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.541 / 4-4
100% (C#9) York (Pa.) (22-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.529, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 33% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.539 / 4-3
100% (A) Christopher Newport (21-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.539, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 67% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.545 / 6-2
99% (C#10) St. John's (22-3, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.524, 3-2 vRRO, WE#2) 0% A, proj. 5-2 vRRO
99% (C#11) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.525, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A, proj. 4-2 vRRO
99% (C#12) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 20% A, fin 99% C

Strong contenders
97% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.543, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 76% A, fin 97% C
97% (C#13) St. Olaf (19-7, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A, proj. 5-4 vRRO
94% (A) Plattsburgh State (21-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.524, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 86% A, fin 94% C
91% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 73% A, fin 91% C

Bubble-in
79% (C#14) Franklin and Marshall (20-6, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.534, 3-4 vRRO, MA#6) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
79% (C#15) UW-Oshkosh (20-7, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.554, 2-4 vRRO, CE#4) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
78% (A) UW-Stevens Point (18-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.605, 4-6 vRRO, CE#5) 62% A, fin 78% C
78% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (19-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.531, 2-2 vRRO, SO#6) 62% A, fin 100% C, semi 70% C
61% (C#16) LeTourneau (23-4, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.510, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 3-4 vRRO
58% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.523, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 69% A, fin 64% C, semi 50% C
57% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.557, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 44% A, fin 82% C, semi 29% C
55% (C#17) Augsburg (20-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.539, 4-3 vRRO, WE#6) 38% A, fin 55% C

Bubble-out
46% (A) Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.517, 1-1 vRRO, SO#3) 45% A, fin 99% C, semi 17% C
39% (A) Nichols (24-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 76% A, fin 39% C
37% (C#18) Keene State (19-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.567, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 25% A, fin 37% C
33% (C#19) Illinois Wesleyan (19-7, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.550, 3-6 vRRO, CE#6) 0% A, proj. 3-6 vRRO
31% (C#20) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 30% A, fin 69% C, semi 8% C
29% (C#21) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 35% A, fin 56% C, semi 5% C
20% (C#22) North Central (Ill.) (18-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.555, 4-4 vRRO, CE#7) 37% A, fin 20% C

Fringe contenders
19% (C#23) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO
15% (C#24) UW-River Falls (18-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.587, 3-6 vRRO, CE) 38% A, fin 15% C
15% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 15% C
11% (C#25) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 3-3 vRRO
11% (C#26) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.579, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A, proj. 2-7 vRRO
5% (C#27) Randolph-Macon (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 4-4 vRRO

Here is how I see things through Saturday.  This is just a snapshot as of right now - teams that are still alive can move pretty significantly up and down with every result.

Safely In
1. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.584/7-3   @ Amherst, Sat
2. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .880 (22-3)/.567/8-4  @ Williams, Sat
3. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .792 (19-5)/.587/6-4   vs Hamilton, Sat
4. UW-Platteville (WE/WIAC: .833 (20-4)/.577/4-1   done
5. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .846 (22-4)/.533/5-3   @ Swarthmore, Sat
6. St. John's (WE/MIAC): .880 (22-3)/.524/3-2  done
7. York, Pa (MA/CAC): .846 (22-4)/.529/3-1   @ Christopher Newport, Sat
8. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).589/4-6   done
9. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .778 (21-6)/.564/4-3  done
10. Marietta (GL/OAC): .778 (21-6)/.563/4-5   done
11. Whitworth (WE/NWC): .884 (23-3)/.521/1-3   @ Whitman, Sat
12. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.568/6-4   done
13. Emory (SO/UAA): .833 (20-4)/.525/3-2  @ Rochester, Sat
14. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .741 (20-7)/.554/2-4   done
15. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.544/3-2   done

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results
16. North Central (CE/CCIW): .720 (18-7)/.555/4-4   @ Augustana, Sat
17. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .741 (20-7)/.539/4-3   @ Bethel, Sat
18. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .731 (19-7)/.550/3-6   done
19. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .769 (20-6)/.534/3-4   done
20. UW-River Falls (WE/WIAC): .692 (18-8)/.587/3-6   @ UW-Stevens Point, Sun
21. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .800 (20-5)/.528/2-3  @ Babson, Sat

Out
22. Salem State (NE/MASCAC): .846 (22-4)/.510/1-2   done
23. LeTourneau (SO/ASC): .852 (23-4)/.510/0-1   done
24. Loras (WE/IIAC): .730 (19-7)/.542/2-3  done
25. Keene State (NE/LEC): .703 (19-8)/.567/2-5  @ Eastern Connecticut, Sat
26. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.579/2-7   done
27. Randolph-Macon (SO/ODAC): .692 (18-8)/.546/3-3   done

[Titan Q]

Here are the games that Pool C bubble teams need to go the right way (listed in order of significance).  The bold teams are the bubble fan's friend this weekend...

Bubble Bursters (projected Pool A teams that could steal a Pool C)
* Augustana over NCC in the CCIW final, Saturday 8pm ET

* Wittenberg over Ohio Wesleyan in the NCAC final, Saturday 4pm ET

* Eastern Connecticut over Keene State in the LEC final, Saturday 5pm ET

* Cabrini over Neumann in the CSAC final, Saturday 7pm ET

* John Carroll over Ohio Northern in the OAC final, Saturday 7:30pm ET

* Ramapo over William Paterson in the NJAC final, Saturday 3:00pm ET

* Plattsburgh State over SUNY Oneonta in the SUNYAC final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* Albright over Lebanon Valley in the Commonwealth final, Saturday 4:00pm ET

* UW-Stevens Point over UW-River Falls, Sunday 3:00pm ET

* Sul Ross State over East Texas Baptist in the ASC final, Saturday 7:00pm ET


Reverse Bubble Burster (projected Pool C teams leaving Pool C)
* Williams, Wesleyan, or Hamilton winning the NESCAC over Amherst, semifinals Saturday 5:30pm & 7:30pm ET

* Augsburg over Bethel in the MIAC final, Sunday 3pm ET

* Babson over MIT in the NEWMAC semis, Saturday 3:30pm ET


I believe IWU can withstand 3 of the bubble bursters going the wrong way...4 would be big trouble.  If any of those "reverse bubble bursters" come through though, it frees up an additional spot.