MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Titan Q]

IWU hosts Millikin Saturday. The Titans and Big Blue have played 230 times. The 1st game was in IWU's 1st season of basketball (1909-10) and the schools have played every season since except '43-44 and '44-45.

This is one of the oldest rivalries in college basketball.

I'm trying to identify where the IWU/Millikin 230 games played total stacks up in Division III.  Just a quick check of a few:
* Wabash vs DePauw = 214
* Hope vs Kalamazoo = 211
* Calvin vs Hope = 201
* Wooster vs Kenyon = 180

Wondering about St. John's vs St. Thomas...and Amherst vs Williams.  And others.

If anyone locates any relevant totals, please post here.  Thanks.

Thank you, @d3playbook...

https://www.d3playbook.com

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2. Rivals

Inspired by our friend Bob Quillman, we decided to include a list of the most-played rivalries in Division III basketball. The list includes all series of 200 games or more, entering the 2019-20 season.

We have found this to be challenging, as many schools don't have all-time series listings on their website and if they do, disagree on the number of games played (and won). Should you have changes (or additions), please pass them along.

Wesleyan-Williams, 238 (began 1901-02)

Illinois Wesleyan-Millikin, 230 (1909-10)

Geneva-Westminster (Pa.), 227 (1897-98)

Amherst-Williams, 226 (1901)

Franklin & Marshall-Gettysburg, 222 (1902)

Knox-Monmouth, 221 (1907-08)

North Central-Wheaton, 219 (1902-03)

DePauw-Wabash, 215 (1906-07)

UW Oshkosh-Stevens Point, 215 (1899)

Hope-Kalamazoo, 211 (1913-14)

Amherst-Wesleyan, 210 (1901-02)

Albion-Alma, 204 (1912-13)

UW La Crosse-River Falls, 204 (1910-11)

UW Eau Claire-River Falls, 203 (1917)

Calvin-Hope, 203 (1917-18)

UW River Falls-Stout, 202

Albion-Olivet, 201 (1910-11)

[WUPHF]

Well you are right about one thing, WashU is not a top 10 team, certainly not without 2 starters. In fact, Massey has them at #34. Problem is Millikin is #223. WashU is, was, and would be a 12-14 pt favorite against Millikin and no spin you provide is going to change that. It's an upset. How big of one depends on the individual spin or perspective.

I referred to it as an upset in my post, so we are in agreement.

I disagree that I was spinning the story.

How good is Wheaton without two starters?

[jaybird44]

In the midst of all of the New Year's Eve/Day hubbub, I have not had a chance to offer an opinion on the WashU @ Millikin game.  I watched all but the first two or three minutes of the game, so I was there wincing in a bit of pain as the game progressed toward the end.

Some thoughts...

First and foremost, kudos to Millikin.  I thought it's defense was outstanding throughout the game, and it forced WashU into many uncomfortable offensive sets.  And, as others have mentioned, Big Blue had a chance to subliminally buckle a couple of times in the game when it was down by double digits, in a game during the holiday season that might have been tough to gear up the proper state of mind.  Truly deserving of the huge upset victory, and you can bet the Millikin players will be talking and reminiscing about the victory over WashU for decades to come.  I certainly would, if I was a Big Blue.

Second, it is true that WashU was missing two starters.  Hank Hunter's strength and efficiency inside the paint and Matt Nester's ability to both shoot 3s and handle the other point guard duties provide WashU with great offensive balance.  When they are out of action at the same time, the offense clearly was knocked off its axis.  But, the void left by two injured starters was known by the team going into the Millikin game.  And, since the trio of Spencer Boehm, Nate Bloedorn, and Kevin Davet has been providing good minutes in Hunter's absence...and Payden Webb, Charlie Jacob and Jonathan Arenas likewise at the guard position when Jack Nolan and Nester needed breaks...in my mind, WashU still had the goods to deliver a win at Millikin.  Yes, it would be much tougher without two starters...but going up double-digits at two pivotal points in the game tells me that WashU still should have been able to cobble together a win on the road.  Bottom line:  the Bears didn't get it done.  And, a steep price may still have to be paid for it.  More on that in a moment.

Third, regarding the final last-second 3-point attempt by Nolan, I thought there was enough contact to merit a foul on Millikin.  But, I believe officials may be (as a point of emphasis this season) trying to wean teams off of leaning gratuitously into defenders to draw fouls, for good reason.  While I don't think Nolan's shot was a gratuitous lean into his defender, the official who made the call had a better look than I did.  And, the upset bed was made by WashU well before that last shot attempt.  So, there's that to chew on.

Final point...if you base the severity of the upset on the disparity of where the two teams rest on the Massey Ratings spectrum, it was a huge upset loss for WashU.  The last time the Bears lost to a team as deep down the list as Millikin was in those ratings, it was 2011 against Carnegie Mellon.  It is a loss that quite frankly could keep WashU out of the NCAA tournament, if it finds itself on a Pool C bubble...even when placed next to the impressive WashU wins vs. Augustana and at Illinois Wesleyan.  It will depend on the resumes of other Pool C hopefuls, when the selection committee starts the game of musical chairs.

It was a rough weekend for WashU Basketball...the women's team didn't play well, in suffering two losses vs. ranked teams in the Wartburg Holiday Classic.  The good news is that there is time to make adjustments and contingency plans, and implement them before the UAA opener at home vs. Chicago January 11th.  One thing we know for sure is that there will be no sympathy cards sent to WashU by its UAA cohorts.  The Bears will know that they will be walking a razor's edge between wins and losses, every step of the way to close out the regular season.  Hopefully they will be up for that challenge.

[BobbyO]

The CCIW now moves into conference play.  Only North Park has one non-conference game left for the regular season.  That will be against Adrian and most likely not be relevant for the D3 playoffs.  Using 25 games for the season and the assumed .700 winning magic number to make the C pool that would mean each team needs 18 wins (72%). 

I do not know if the conference tournament games get factored in or not.  If so it would make a small difference in the percentages.  Two teams will get 1 extra game which would be a loss from Seeds 3-6.  26 games would mean a need for 19 wins (73.08%). Seeds 1 and 2 if lost in semis would also need 19 wins (73.08%). The loser in the finals will need either 19 wins (70.37%) if they played 27 games, or 20 wins (74.07) if they played 28 games. The winner is the automatic qualifier and wins do not matter except for seeding.

Wins needed to reach .700 for 25 games Season:

   Wheaton      9 out of 13 games
   Carroll      9 out of 13 games
   North Central   9 out of 13 games
   IWU         10 out of 13 games
   Elmhurst      8 out of 14 games
   Carthage      9 out of 14 games
   Augustana   11 out of 14 games
   Millikin      15 out of 13 games      Not Possible
   North Park    16 out of 14 games      Not Possible

The .700 mark is not perfect and some teams under may make it but I would not plan on it.  I would appreciate it if someone would check my math and logic and let me know if tournament games count into the formula.

[Titan Q]

The CCIW now moves into conference play.  Only North Park has one non-conference game left for the regular season.  That will be against Adrian and most likely not be relevant for the D3 playoffs.  Using 25 games for the season and the assumed .700 winning magic number to make the C pool that would mean each team needs 18 wins (72%). 

I do not know if the conference tournament games get factored in or not.  If so it would make a small difference in the percentages.  Two teams will get 1 extra game which would be a loss from Seeds 3-6.  26 games would mean a need for 19 wins (73.08%). Seeds 1 and 2 if lost in semis would also need 19 wins (73.08%). The loser in the finals will need either 19 wins (70.37%) if they played 27 games, or 20 wins (74.07) if they played 28 games. The winner is the automatic qualifier and wins do not matter except for seeding.

Wins needed to reach .700 for 25 games Season:

   Wheaton      9 out of 13 games
   Carroll      9 out of 13 games
   North Central   9 out of 13 games
   IWU         10 out of 13 games
   Elmhurst      8 out of 14 games
   Carthage      9 out of 14 games
   Augustana   11 out of 14 games
   Millikin      15 out of 13 games      Not Possible
   North Park    16 out of 14 games      Not Possible

The .700 mark is not perfect and some teams under may make it but I would not plan on it.  I would appreciate it if someone would check my math and logic and let me know if tournament games count into the formula.

This is good, BobbyO.

The conference tournament games do count.  For projections, I always just assume 1-1 there...safest thing to use.

If you can, build in a 1-1 assumption for CCIW tourney and then re-run those "rest of the way" records needed. 

.700 is the magic number winning percentage for sure...it's not a Pool C guarantee, but below that is almost alway out.

[Gregory Sager]

The CCIW now moves into conference play.  Only North Park has one non-conference game left for the regular season.  That will be against Adrian and most likely not be relevant for the D3 playoffs.

North Park has two non-conference games remaining, not one. The Vikings are at Adrian this afternoon, and will host Chicago on Saturday.

Good work on the .700-threshold projections, though. Thanks.

[Greek Tragedy]

Nice work BobbyO. I may have to steal your idea for the WIAC.

[USee]

Well you are right about one thing, WashU is not a top 10 team, certainly not without 2 starters. In fact, Massey has them at #34. Problem is Millikin is #223. WashU is, was, and would be a 12-14 pt favorite against Millikin and no spin you provide is going to change that. It's an upset. How big of one depends on the individual spin or perspective.

I referred to it as an upset in my post, so we are in agreement.

I disagree that I was spinning the story.

How good is Wheaton without two starters?

I didn't think Wheaton would be this good with 5 starters so with only 3 starters they would probably have the same record as they do today. Not sure what relevance that has to the subject though. 

[BobbyO]

My critical look at Augie's first 11 games of the season.
It appears that the two biggest problems with the team is turnovers 178 and free throw shooting 150 of 231 a .649 average. The other has to be a lack of quality three point shooting 72 of 207.

The Vikings have played a very tough schedule their four losses all come from ranked teams during the first two months (Oshkosh, Washington University, La Cross and IWU.) Some of these teams are no longer ranked but all but one came down to a final shot or overtime.  The Oshkosh game was a 7 point loss but was the first game of the season.

A few quality wins against Loras, Calvin, Alma and Steven's Point. The other three are from Whitewater, Mac Murray and Carrol in overtime.  The only win that bothers me is the overtime with Carroll.

The biggest thing that Coach G has to do is get his team to keep the foot on the throttle.  They go up and then lose their composure.  The great teams pull away and never let their opponents back in the game.  The other thing is that the crowd and atmosphere at Carver is not good.  No Carver Crazies driving the other team nuts.  Lack of a Pep Band, though the President of the College indicated that there was going to be one this year. Finally the overall crowd seems to me to be lackadaisical.

I guess past success has brought this malaise to the team.  Still time to turn it around.  Hopefully Alumni and the true crazies will travel to the away games.

[BobbyO]

The CCIW now moves into conference play.  Only North Park has one non-conference game left for the regular season.  That will be against Adrian and most likely not be relevant for the D3 playoffs.  Using 25 games for the season and the assumed .700 winning magic number to make the C pool that would mean each team needs 18 wins (72%). 

I do not know if the conference tournament games get factored in or not.  If so it would make a small difference in the percentages.  Two teams will get 1 extra game which would be a loss from Seeds 3-6.  26 games would mean a need for 19 wins (73.08%). Seeds 1 and 2 if lost in semis would also need 19 wins (73.08%). The loser in the finals will need either 19 wins (70.37%) if they played 27 games, or 20 wins (74.07) if they played 28 games. The winner is the automatic qualifier and wins do not matter except for seeding.

Wins needed to reach .700 for 25 games Season:

   Wheaton      9 out of 13 games
   Carroll      9 out of 13 games
   North Central   9 out of 13 games
   IWU         10 out of 13 games
   Elmhurst      8 out of 14 games
   Carthage      9 out of 14 games
   Augustana   11 out of 14 games
   Millikin      15 out of 13 games      Not Possible
   North Park    16 out of 14 games      Not Possible

The .700 mark is not perfect and some teams under may make it but I would not plan on it.  I would appreciate it if someone would check my math and logic and let me know if tournament games count into the formula.

This is good, BobbyO.

The conference tournament games do count.  For projections, I always just assume 1-1 there...safest thing to use.

If you can, build in a 1-1 assumption for CCIW tourney and then re-run those "rest of the way" records needed. 

.700 is the magic number winning percentage for sure...it's not a Pool C guarantee, but below that is almost alway out.

Thanks Q hope to see you in person at one of these games soon!

[mwunder]

In case anyone was wondering

Massey's ratings:
Carthage #63
Olivet #214

Absolutely BRUTAL loss by the Red Men.  Cannot be stressed enough.

[GoPerry]

In case anyone was wondering

Massey's ratings:
Carthage #63
Olivet #214

Absolutely BRUTAL loss by the Red Men.  Cannot be stressed enough.

Fwiw, K Baltimore only played the first 8 mins and missed the rest of the game.  Any word on reason for this?

So an upset yes, but also with a slight asterisk just like Wash/MU

[lmitzel]

The only win that bothers me is the overtime with Carroll.

To be fair, Carroll has played Augie pretty tough since they came back to the CCIW. Yeah, the Vikings swept the Pios by identical 68-56 finals in both Rock Island and Waukesha last year, but the year before Carroll knocked them off in Waukesha and the Vikings only won by four at home; year before that was a split as well. In a vacuum, I can see why it would bother you, but there's enough history there, combined with the fact that it seems like the CCIW will cannibalize itself to some degree over the next couple months, that it shouldn't necessarily be that troublesome. (Granted, I have ties to a rival. )

[Gregory Sager]

In case anyone was wondering

Massey's ratings:
Carthage #63
Olivet #214

Absolutely BRUTAL loss by the Red Men.  Cannot be stressed enough.

Fwiw, K Baltimore only played the first 8 mins and missed the rest of the game.  Any word on reason for this?

Baltimore got T'ed up, Bosko sent him to the bench eight seconds later, and on the next trip down the floor Baltimore started jawing at one of the refs from his seat on the bench. The ref told Baltimore that if he said another word he'd get tossed. Bosko heard it, and never put Baltimore back in, presumably for disciplinary reasons.

[Gregory Sager]

The only win that bothers me is the overtime with Carroll.

To be fair, Carroll has played Augie pretty tough since they came back to the CCIW. Yeah, the Vikings swept the Pios by identical 68-56 finals in both Rock Island and Waukesha last year, but the year before Carroll knocked them off in Waukesha and the Vikings only won by four at home; year before that was a split as well. In a vacuum, I can see why it would bother you, but there's enough history there, combined with the fact that it seems like the CCIW will cannibalize itself to some degree over the next couple months, that it shouldn't necessarily be that troublesome. (Granted, I have ties to a rival. )

I've said this before on CCIW Chat this season, but Carroll is a tough out. The Pios don't look like much, but the whole is definitely greater than the sum of its parts. They play great team basketball.