MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

The Oshkosh assistant has deep Carroll ties.

But I doubt we will hear anything until after the season is over.

Yeah, I knew that there was a WIAC guy who was talked about as a Carroll possibility, but I couldn't remember who it was. Thanks!

[WUPHF]

Not a problem.

Here is an out of the box, history making hire: Carissa Sain of IIT, formerly UChicago.

[Pat Coleman]

I imagine NPU willl get a few votes, but they aren't going from zero votes to Top 25. They beat a very good Wheaton team at home. In fact, NPU might have even been slight favorites in last night's game...or maybe a very small underdog. Obviously they won't get many more votes beating up on Carroll this weekend. Drew has Wheaton as a near lock at 99% and has NPU in the "bubble in" category at 69% and the #9 Pool C team.

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

I guess my question on this would be: if they were slightly favored to beat the eighth ranked team in the country when we are 2/3 of the way through the season, then how are they not a Top 25 team?  I hear you on the couple of times they have underwhelmed, but I'd venture that pretty much everyone the 15-25 range has one or more of those on their CV.

This is kind of how this season is. Lots of talent and quality in 40-50 teams.

I see here we had some of the same conversations that we had on Twitter yesterday, but without the voters' response. Short version:

• Voters have gotten North Park data from us for the past several polls. Sometimes there are North Park votes, sometimes not.
• North Park has definitely lost games at key times that made it difficult for people to keep them on their ballots.
• A number of voters do watch North Park games.
• And in addition, I agree with Coach Schauer -- if this team had IWU's jerseys, people would be voting for them. Of course, that would be voting for a team that was 14-4 this year and 24-6 last year, so that is a much different team.

Could North Park go all the way into the Top 25 with yesterday's win, and with a win at Carroll on Saturday? Certainly possible. It's a matter of how many voters already thought North Park was in their 26-30 range. We have no way of knowing how many voters had North Park on their bubble.

[USee]

I imagine NPU willl get a few votes, but they aren't going from zero votes to Top 25. They beat a very good Wheaton team at home. In fact, NPU might have even been slight favorites in last night's game...or maybe a very small underdog. Obviously they won't get many more votes beating up on Carroll this weekend. Drew has Wheaton as a near lock at 99% and has NPU in the "bubble in" category at 69% and the #9 Pool C team.

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

Thanks Greek-using Drew's data on resumes as a proxy I note the following:

Teams with resumes very close to NPU include:
#12 Johns Hopkins
#20 UW Lacrosse
#24 UW Oshkosh
ORV Wooster

Teams with "worse" resumes than NPU include:

#13 WPI
#18 Calvin
#19 CMS
#21 Trine
#23 Nazareth
ORV's: Roanoke, CWRU, WashU

I understand Pool C criteria is not necessarily the barometer for Top 25 voters, but it seems to me if 8 of the current top 25 teams have resumes similar or worse than NPU (and another 5 on some voters ballots), the voters are not looking closely enough at NPU. 

[Gregory Sager]

I see here we had some of the same conversations that we had on Twitter yesterday, but without the voters' response. Short version:

• Voters have gotten North Park data from us for the past several polls. Sometimes there are North Park votes, sometimes not.
• North Park has definitely lost games at key times that made it difficult for people to keep them on their ballots.
• A number of voters do watch North Park games.
• And in addition, I agree with Coach Schauer -- if this team had IWU's jerseys, people would be voting for them. Of course, that would be voting for a team that was 14-4 this year and 24-6 last year, so that is a much different team.

I'm pretty sure that that's not what Mike meant, especially since we rehashed his Hoopsville conversation with D-Mac before the game last night. (One more thing to like about Mike; he's a head coach who is willing to talk shop with us peons before a game, even a game of last night's magnitude. Not every coach will make himself accessible like that.)

[WUPHF]

Teams with "worse" resumes than NPU include:

#13 WPI
#18 Calvin
#19 CMS
#21 Trine
#23 Nazareth
ORV's: Roanoke, CWRU, WashU

I believe the ranking mentioned project out for the rest of the season and hence the results you referenced.  I am not sure about every team, but the UAA teams mentioned have a harder road ahead than North Park.

I do think there is a ranking inertia: teams that are ranked tend to stay ranked, teams that are in unranked tend to stay unranked.

[GoPerry]

This is kind of how this season is. Lots of talent and quality in 40-50 teams.

I see here we had some of the same conversations that we had on Twitter yesterday, but without the voters' response. Short version:

• Voters have gotten North Park data from us for the past several polls. Sometimes there are North Park votes, sometimes not.
• North Park has definitely lost games at key times that made it difficult for people to keep them on their ballots.
• A number of voters do watch North Park games.
• And in addition, I agree with Coach Schauer -- if this team had IWU's jerseys, people would be voting for them. Of course, that would be voting for a team that was 14-4 this year and 24-6 last year, so that is a much different team.

Could North Park go all the way into the Top 25 with yesterday's win, and with a win at Carroll on Saturday? Certainly possible. It's a matter of how many voters already thought North Park was in their 26-30 range. We have no way of knowing how many voters had North Park on their bubble.

Agreed Pat.  Records matter and probably figure very high in voters minds and fact of the matter, NPU is a 4 loss team.  Granted, I think they are about as good a four loss team as there is out there.  But in my mind, you would have to stand out in some way from other 4 loss or lower ranked 3 loss teams.  Hampdon Syd is a great example with 4 losses, 2 of those to #2 Randolph Macon.  Ditto UWL.  Until last night I'm not sure you would say NPU yet had a signature win (in the eye of the beholder).  Some solid wins, yes.  But with the W last night, there's little doubt about that and I would think they'd get some consideration. 

• And in addition, I agree with Coach Schauer -- if this team had IWU's jerseys, people would be voting for them. Of course, that would be voting for a team that was 14-4 this year and 24-6 last year, so that is a much different team.

I'm pretty sure that that's not what Mike meant, especially since we rehashed his Hoopsville conversation with D-Mac before the game last night. (One more thing to like about Mike; he's a head coach who is willing to talk shop with us peons before a game, even a game of last night's magnitude. Not every coach will make himself accessible like that.)

I'm thinking he meant that NPU doesn't have the same recent pedigree that IWU has.  Or rather, IWU is a known entity as a program whereas NPU likely does not have the same image in voter's minds.  I also think it might have to do with the Viking's style not being respected quite as much. 

Offensively, NPU's is much more frequently one on one type of basketball.  In this league that style is so different that it is easy to sneer at.  But I'm not sure who cares as long as you can rack up the Ws.  I think the major thing that gets overlooked is the Vikings defense and their takeaways.  It gives them easy points off turnovers but more than that, it puts even solid teams like Wheaton back on their heals waiting for their dribbles to be slapped at or their shots to be blocked.  This was totally evident last night, and that surprised me.

[kiko]

Fun with numbers for teams that have played their home-and-away with North Park:

North Central
Games: 18
Turnovers committed: 224
Turnovers committed vs North Park: 43

Avg TO per game overall: 12.4
Avg TO per game excluding NPU: 11.3
Avg TO per game vs NPU: 21.5


Wheaton
Games: 19
Turnovers committed: 216
Turnovers committed vs North Park: 40

Avg TO per game overall: 11.4
Avg TO per game excluding NPU: 10.4
Avg TO per game vs NPU: 20.0

Forcing your opponents into essentially twice as many turnovers as they average against all other teams is a pretty good defensive strategy.

[kiko]

I imagine NPU willl get a few votes, but they aren't going from zero votes to Top 25. They beat a very good Wheaton team at home. In fact, NPU might have even been slight favorites in last night's game...or maybe a very small underdog. Obviously they won't get many more votes beating up on Carroll this weekend. Drew has Wheaton as a near lock at 99% and has NPU in the "bubble in" category at 69% and the #9 Pool C team.

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

I guess my question on this would be: if they were slightly favored to beat the eighth ranked team in the country when we are 2/3 of the way through the season, then how are they not a Top 25 team?  I hear you on the couple of times they have underwhelmed, but I'd venture that pretty much everyone the 15-25 range has one or more of those on their CV.

This is kind of how this season is. Lots of talent and quality in 40-50 teams.

I see here we had some of the same conversations that we had on Twitter yesterday, but without the voters' response. Short version:

• Voters have gotten North Park data from us for the past several polls. Sometimes there are North Park votes, sometimes not.
• North Park has definitely lost games at key times that made it difficult for people to keep them on their ballots.
• A number of voters do watch North Park games.
• And in addition, I agree with Coach Schauer -- if this team had IWU's jerseys, people would be voting for them. Of course, that would be voting for a team that was 14-4 this year and 24-6 last year, so that is a much different team.

Could North Park go all the way into the Top 25 with yesterday's win, and with a win at Carroll on Saturday? Certainly possible. It's a matter of how many voters already thought North Park was in their 26-30 range. We have no way of knowing how many voters had North Park on their bubble.

I get that.  And, the voters are watching with a broader aperture than I am.

I would probably be a bit gentler on this topic if they were somewhere in ORV, but to be on *no* ballots is eye-opening, particularly in light of the context where we were (and are) dunking on other sources who have been more pessimistic when it comes to the Vikings.  The d3hoops poll is, rightly, considered to be much more attuned to things in D3 than other sources who offer ratings and whatnot, but this one is IMO a miss, even before the Wheaton result.

Okay, putting on my red sunglasses again as we turn attention to this weekend's games...

[Stertorous Thunder]

Forcing your opponents into essentially twice as many turnovers as they average against all other teams is a pretty good defensive strategy.

When you put it like this, it's so obvious.  I wonder why more teams don't implement this strategy. 

In seriousness, this is great analysis.  Thanks for sharing.

[Gregory Sager]

I'm thinking he meant that NPU doesn't have the same recent pedigree that IWU has.  Or rather, IWU is a known entity as a program whereas NPU likely does not have the same image in voter's minds.  I also think it might have to do with the Viking's style not being respected quite as much.

I'm pretty sure that he meant option #2. Brand identification is a thing in D3; I'm certain of it.

Forcing your opponents into essentially twice as many turnovers as they average against all other teams is a pretty good defensive strategy.

When you put it like this, it's so obvious.  I wonder why more teams don't implement this strategy. 

In seriousness, this is great analysis.  Thanks for sharing.

Agreed. Well done, kiko!

[bbfan44]

Forcing your opponents into essentially twice as many turnovers as they average against all other teams is a pretty good defensive strategy.

When you put it like this, it's so obvious.  I wonder why more teams don't implement this strategy. 

In seriousness, this is great analysis.  Thanks for sharing.

My question is why, if everyone knows NP is a pressing team, and Wheaton already played them earlier this year...why didn't Coach Schauer have a better game plan to deal with it. They tried quite unsuccessfully to dribble through double and on occasion triple teams all night long. Where was the passing?

[Gregory Sager]

Forcing your opponents into essentially twice as many turnovers as they average against all other teams is a pretty good defensive strategy.

When you put it like this, it's so obvious.  I wonder why more teams don't implement this strategy. 

In seriousness, this is great analysis.  Thanks for sharing.

My question is why, if everyone knows NP is a pressing team, and Wheaton already played them earlier this year...why didn't Coach Schauer have a better game plan to deal with it. They tried quite unsuccessfully to dribble through double and on occasion triple teams all night long. Where was the passing?

NPU hid its midcourt traps well all night. The Vikings waited until the ballhandler had his head down and was committed to dribbling past the defender who had picked him up and face-guarded him up the floor since the inbounds pass. Because the perimeter players for NPU are so quick, they were able to blind-side the ballhandler, who was already seriously engaged by a defender whom he knew very well had quick enough hands to poke the ball away from him if he wasn't super-careful. Being super-careful was what led to NPU blind-siding him.

What Wheaton could've done better was to communicate that there was an oncoming trapper to the ballhandler.

[USee]

There aren't really any teams that can actually simulate NPU's playing style during practice. You have to adjust to the speed. And Wheaton was a at a serious disadvantage when Eddie Scott went out early in the game with an injury. I think if Eddie Scott plays, Wheaton's chances of winning go up dramatically. Eddie is Wheaton's second ball handler and second leading 3pt shooter. He takes a lot of the pressure off Tyson. Wheaton didn't have anyone besides Tyson who can get open by themselves.

The crazy thing is, Wheaton was down at half and they stormed out of the locker room to take the lead, in large part because they passed the ball up the court against pressure and then attacked with numbers, getting multiple layups. They then stopped doing it for some reason and when anyone other than Tyson brought the ball up, they were team turnover. Player after player tried to dribble themselves open. 25 turnovers and still had the ball with a chance to tie with 6 seconds left.....

[Gregory Sager]

In the first part of the second half Wheaton kept releasing on North Park jumpers, which, since the Vikings were sending shooters to the corners (Kolden Vanlandingham and Jalen Boyd in particular are very adept shooters from the corners), meant that the visitors in navy blue were able to get numbers in transition once they collected the defensive rebound, and thus got either easy layups or fouls (plus a Cruickshank pullup trey). Four of Wheaton's first five baskets in the second half came that way, and they put the Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance back into the lead. But that stopped once NPU adjusted by not sending men to the corners as much and by focusing on attacking the basket. Driving to the rim means no more long rebounds, which means no opportunities for the opposition to get out and fastbreak with superior numbers. And for Wheaton, no fastbreaks therefore meant bringing up the ball against NPU's pressure and into the jaws of midcourt traps.